2008 TQS targets
The other day, I introduced a new stat called “True Quality Starts.” I’ve gotten some good feedback. Today, I’d like to use this stat to take a look at a few pitchers who might be undervalued going into the 2008 fantasy baseball season.
Dustin McGowan
We’ve talked about McGowan before, and he’s a top sleeper for a lot of owners. Incidentally, TQS likes him too.
Peripherals
YEAR AGE G GS IP ERA LIPS ERA K/9 BB/9 GB% 2005 23 13 7 45.3 6.35 4.95 6.75 3.38 44.22 2006 24 16 3 27.3 7.24 6.16 7.24 8.23 42.55 2007 25 27 27 169.7 4.08 4.07 7.64 3.24 52.61
TQS Stats
YEAR GS TQS% GREAT% GOOD% AVG% BAD% AWFUL% GG% BA% GG/BA 2005 7 43 0 0 71 29 0 0 29 0 2006 3 0 0 0 67 33 0 0 33 0 2007 27 70 11 19 59 11 0 30 11 267
Not much to go on (in terms of TQS) before 2007, but last year he was quite good. He was one of just 13 pitchers who had a double-digit “great” percentage, and he was 30th in “good & great” percentage. His peripherals were good enough to get him a LIPS ERA just above 4.00, and there is plenty of room for growth in both his strikeout and walk rates. Plus, he’s got that nice ground ball rate. Furthermore, if you remember our last talk about him, he has an excellent curve ball. Most signs point to McGowan having a good year and outperforming his market value.
Joe Blanton
Peripherals
YEAR AGE G GS IP ERA LIPS ERA K/9 BB/9 GB% 2004 23 3 0 8.0 5.63 3.19 6.75 2.25 40.91 2005 24 33 33 201.3 3.53 4.76 5.19 3.00 44.20 2006 25 32 31 194.3 4.82 4.80 4.96 2.69 42.57 2007 26 34 34 230.0 3.95 4.10 5.48 1.57 46.21
TQS Stats
YEAR GS TQS% GREAT% GOOD% AVG% BAD% AWFUL% GG% BA% GG/BA 2004 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2005 33 52 3 12 64 15 6 15 21 71 2006 31 32 0 10 71 19 0 10 19 50 2007 34 62 3 35 56 6 0 38 6 650
After 2006, Blanton didn’t look so good. He was just 25, though, and in his age 26 year he seemed to really improve. He ranked 14th in baseball in “good & great” percentage, sandwiched between John Lackey and Scott Kazmir. However, this was mostly a function of his fantastic walk rate, which I’m not sure he can sustain—very few pitchers can.
He did have 23 starts (68 percent) with a BB/9 under two and nine starts (26 percent) in which he didn’t walk anyone. That indicates he might be able to maintain a low walk rate, but—not surprisingly—in his 11 starts with a BB/9 over two, he had nine outings (82 percent) that were “below average” or “bad.”
Going into his age 27 season, Blanton’s strikeout rate could improve some more. If he also maintains that walk rate, he could be a great pick. If the walk rate regresses toward its 2006 level, though, Blanton could be in for a rough year. If you do pick him, watch that walk rate carefully in April.
James Shields
Peripherals
YEAR AGE G GS IP ERA LIPS ERA K/9 BB/9 GB% 2006 24 21 21 124.7 4.84 4.12 7.51 2.74 41.98 2007 25 31 31 215.0 3.85 3.69 7.70 1.51 42.24
TQS Stats
YEAR GS TQS% GREAT% GOOD% AVG% BAD% AWFUL% GG% BA% GG/BA 2006 21 67 0 5 81 14 0 5 14 33 2007 31 81 19 16 58 3 3 35 6 550
Shields was one of my favorite sleepers going into 2007, and it worked out well. Going into 2008, he could be underrated yet again. His “great” percentage was second in baseball among pitchers with at least 12 starts… second to just Erik Bedard, who had a 3.13 LIPS ERA.
Like Blanton’s, Shields’ walk rate was exceptionally low. Unlike Blanton, Shields has that amazing “Great” percentage working for him. Also unlike Blanton’s, Shields’ value doesn’t hinge on his ability to keep his walk rate that low. His strikeout rate is higher to begin with, and the opportunity for growth is greater than Blanton’s. Shields had 13 starts (42 percent) with a K/9 above eight and nine starts (29 percent) with a K/9 above 10. The man has some serious ace potential. Shields is a guy I’ll definitely be targeting this year.
Randy Johnson
Peripherals
YEAR AGE G GS IP ERA LIPS ERA K/9 BB/9 GB% 2004 40 35 35 245.7 2.60 2.69 10.62 1.61 42.42 2005 41 34 34 225.7 3.79 3.56 8.42 1.87 44.46 2006 42 33 33 205.0 5.00 4.07 7.55 2.63 41.10 2007 43 10 10 56.7 3.81 2.92 11.44 2.06 38.89
TQS Stats
YEAR GS TQS% GREAT% GOOD% AVG% BAD% AWFUL% GG% BA% GG/BA 2004 35 91 37 26 37 0 0 63 0 INF 2005 34 74 6 41 47 6 0 47 6 800 2006 33 64 9 21 55 12 3 30 15 200 2007 10 80 10 60 20 10 0 70 10 700
I first want to note that there is a lot not to like about Johnson. First, he’ll be 44 years old this season. Leading up to 2007, all of his numbers were dropping, both peripherals and TQS stats. They were still pretty good, but rapidly declining. In 2007, he was fantastic, but it was during just 10 starts. He aggravated his back three times, and at his age, the chances of injury in 2008 are pretty high.
Now for the good news. In 2007, while he had just 10 starts, they were 10 fantastic starts. Of them, 70 percent were either “good” or “great,” and just 20 percent were either “below average” or “bad.” His strikeout rate was the highest it had been since 2002, and his walk rate was fantastic as well. Furthermore, if you take out his three-inning, six K/9, six BB/9 start that ended up being his final of the year (his sole “bad” start), Johnson’s numbers look even better.
It appears that RJ’s still got a little left in the tank, and he’s still available at the end of most traditional 12-team mixed league drafts. I think his recent display of skills—even in 2006 he wasn’t bad—and his cheap price makes him worth a pick in the late rounds of these types of leagues.
Concluding thoughts
We’ll probably look at a few more guys—perhaps some who TQS doesn’t look as favorably on—in the next few days.
As a side note, my first article is up over at Rotoworld, examining the position battle for Tampa Bay’s final two rotation spots, the third base battle for the Dodgers, and 10 guys whose stocks are on the move. Check it out.