Batted ball profiles, 2007
One feature of this year’s Hardball Times Annual will be batted ball summaries for all batters and pitchers. I first experimented with this format at my Baseball Graphs site two years ago, and we decided to include the stats in last year’s Annual. Your response to the stats (yes, I’m talking to you) was very positive, so we’ll continue to include them each year.
Since we’re nearing the end of the season, I thought you’d like to see batted ball profiles of some of this year’s major league stars and disappointments. I’ll use the Baseball Graphs format but, unlike the Baseball Graphs stats, the run values in these tables are based on zero (instead of above/below average). In addition to run values, you can see how often each type of major batted ball is struck and how often each batter strikes out and walks. Let’s look at baseball’s newest home run leader to see how the table works.
Bonds, Barry |
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| Net Runs per Ball | % of Batted Balls | %/OF | %/PA | Total Net Runs | |||||||||||||
| BFP | OF | LD | GB | OF% | LD% | GB% | HR | K | BB | OF | LD | GB | IF | NIP | Tot | R/G | |
| 2004 | 617 | 0.51 | 0.39 | 0.09 | 40% | 19% | 35% | 33% | 7% | 39% | 68.0 | 24.7 | 10.0 | -2.2 | 78.6 | 179.2 | 11.0 |
| 2005 | 52 | 0.35 | 0.31 | 0.02 | 46% | 22% | 27% | 29% | 12% | 17% | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 2.4 | 10.8 | 7.9 |
| 2006 | 493 | 0.27 | 0.39 | -0.03 | 44% | 20% | 30% | 18% | 10% | 25% | 37.5 | 24.7 | -2.7 | -1.6 | 37.5 | 95.4 | 7.3 |
| 2007 | 418 | 0.40 | 0.48 | -0.02 | 38% | 15% | 41% | 27% | 12% | 30% | 37.2 | 17.8 | -2.3 | -0.8 | 36.9 | 88.9 | 8.1 |
| Avg. | 395 | 0.40 | 0.41 | 0.02 | 41% | 19% | 35% | 27% | 9% | 32% | 30.1 | 13.8 | 1.2 | -0.9 | 50.1 | 94.3 | 9.1 |
| vs. MLB | 0.21 | 0.02 | -0.03 | 10% | -2% | -9% | 16% | -7% | 22% | 13.2 | -9.2 | -4.3 | 0.1 | 44.8 | |||
Barry has been crushing outfield flies again (.4 runs per outfield fly and 27% hit for home runs, both tremendous rates). He’s walking again, though his strikeout rate is up a bit. On the negative side, his groundball rate has risen close to the major league average of 44%, and his line drive rate is down a lot. These frequency rates, by the way, don’t include bunts.
Albert Pujols had an off half-year (relative to what he’s done in the past), though he’s certainly been hitting lately. His stats for the year show fewer runs per outfield fly, a decreasing outfield rate, and increasing groundballs.
Pujols, Albert |
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| Net Runs per Ball | % of Batted Balls | %/OF | %/PA | Total Net Runs | |||||||||||||
| BFP | OF | LD | GB | OF% | LD% | GB% | HR | K | BB | OF | LD | GB | IF | NIP | Tot | R/G | |
| 2004 | 692 | 0.31 | 0.53 | 0.06 | 35% | 17% | 41% | 20% | 8% | 13% | 59.3 | 50.3 | 14.5 | -2.3 | 22.5 | 144.8 | 7.9 |
| 2005 | 700 | 0.31 | 0.45 | 0.05 | 32% | 20% | 42% | 21% | 9% | 15% | 52.1 | 47.5 | 10.8 | -2.3 | 25.7 | 133.9 | 7.3 |
| 2006 | 634 | 0.36 | 0.45 | 0.03 | 38% | 18% | 37% | 24% | 8% | 15% | 66.0 | 39.6 | 5.2 | -2.3 | 24.1 | 132.5 | 7.9 |
| 2007 | 532 | 0.28 | 0.42 | 0.02 | 35% | 19% | 42% | 20% | 10% | 16% | 39.9 | 31.3 | 4.0 | -1.0 | 20.1 | 94.4 | 6.7 |
| Avg. | 640 | 0.32 | 0.46 | 0.04 | 35% | 19% | 41% | 21% | 9% | 15% | 54.0 | 42.2 | 8.5 | -1.9 | 23.3 | 126.1 | 7.5 |
| vs. MLB | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 4% | -2% | -3% | 11% | -8% | 5% | 26.6 | 4.9 | -0.5 | -0.2 | 14.7 | |||
The batter with the highest average run value per outfield fly is the A’s amazing Jack Cust, at .59 runs. Speaking of great young batting stars, Marlins shortstop Hanley Ramirez has had a breakout year. Notice how his outfield fly frequency is up, as is his runs per outfield fly. Strikeouts are down and he’s still got plenty of speed to eke out .1 runs per groundball. An awesome profile:
Ramirez, Hanley |
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| Net Runs per Ball | % of Batted Balls | %/OF | %/PA | Total Net Runs | |||||||||||||
| BFP | OF | LD | GB | OF% | LD% | GB% | HR | K | BB | OF | LD | GB | IF | NIP | Tot | R/G | |
| 2006 | 700 | 0.16 | 0.47 | 0.11 | 31% | 21% | 44% | 10% | 18% | 9% | 25.2 | 49.2 | 23.7 | -2.2 | 6.4 | 103.3 | 5.6 |
| 2007 | 542 | 0.29 | 0.46 | 0.09 | 36% | 19% | 42% | 14% | 14% | 8% | 42.4 | 35.2 | 16.3 | -1.6 | 7.1 | 100.2 | 7.0 |
| Avg. | 621 | 0.22 | 0.47 | 0.10 | 33% | 20% | 43% | 12% | 17% | 9% | 32.4 | 41.9 | 19.8 | -1.8 | 7.1 | 100.4 | 6.1 |
| vs. MLB | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 2% | -1% | -1% | 1% | 0% | -1% | 5.8 | 5.7 | 11.0 | -0.2 | -1.3 | |||
Matt Holliday is another fine young hitter in the National League. This seems like a good place to tell you that these stats aren’t adjusted for ballpark. Holliday’s average line drive value of .5 runs is the sixth-highest rate in the majors. Rookie Ryan Braun leads the majors with .58 runs per line drive.
Holliday, Matthew |
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| Net Runs per Ball | % of Batted Balls | %/OF | %/PA | Total Net Runs | |||||||||||||
| BFP | OF | LD | GB | OF% | LD% | GB% | HR | K | BB | OF | LD | GB | IF | NIP | Tot | R/G | |
| 2004 | 439 | 0.28 | 0.42 | 0.08 | 30% | 19% | 49% | 14% | 20% | 8% | 26.3 | 24.8 | 12.4 | -0.8 | 3.1 | 65.7 | 5.7 |
| 2005 | 526 | 0.21 | 0.47 | 0.08 | 28% | 21% | 48% | 16% | 15% | 8% | 24.4 | 38.9 | 14.5 | -1.3 | 6.0 | 82.6 | 6.0 |
| 2006 | 667 | 0.31 | 0.47 | 0.07 | 32% | 21% | 45% | 19% | 16% | 9% | 49.9 | 49.1 | 14.7 | -1.1 | 9.1 | 121.7 | 6.9 |
| 2007 | 549 | 0.30 | 0.50 | 0.07 | 35% | 19% | 45% | 15% | 18% | 9% | 42.6 | 38.8 | 12.2 | -0.4 | 6.2 | 99.4 | 6.9 |
| Avg. | 545 | 0.28 | 0.47 | 0.07 | 31% | 20% | 46% | 16% | 17% | 9% | 35.3 | 37.6 | 13.3 | -0.9 | 6.3 | 91.7 | 6.4 |
| vs. MLB | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0% | -1% | 2% | 5% | 1% | -1% | 12.0 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 0.6 | -1.0 | |||
One of the American League’s best young hitters is B.J. Upton. Upton strikes out a lot, but he’s a tremendous flyball hitter. As he learns to hit more outfield flies (34% is only a bit above average), his performance could improve even more .
Upton, BJ |
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| Net Runs per Ball | % of Batted Balls | %/OF | %/PA | Total Net Runs | |||||||||||||
| BFP | OF | LD | GB | OF% | LD% | GB% | HR | K | BB | OF | LD | GB | IF | NIP | Tot | R/G | |
| 2006 | 189 | 0.02 | 0.34 | 0.08 | 23% | 19% | 54% | 3% | 21% | 7% | 0.5 | 8.4 | 5.7 | -0.5 | 0.3 | 14.4 | 2.9 |
| 2007 | 392 | 0.33 | 0.52 | 0.10 | 34% | 20% | 44% | 20% | 27% | 12% | 26.8 | 24.3 | 10.0 | -0.5 | 4.7 | 65.0 | 6.3 |
| Avg. | 291 | 0.23 | 0.46 | 0.09 | 31% | 20% | 47% | 14% | 25% | 11% | 11.7 | 14.9 | 7.2 | -0.4 | 2.7 | 36.0 | 4.7 |
| vs. MLB | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0% | -1% | 3% | 3% | 8% | 1% | -0.7 | -2.0 | 3.1 | 0.3 | -1.2 | |||
One midseason surprise of the American League has been Chone Figgins. The reason is easy to spot: His line drive frequency is up a lot, as is his run value per line drive.
Figgins, Chone |
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| Net Runs per Ball | % of Batted Balls | %/OF | %/PA | Total Net Runs | |||||||||||||
| BFP | OF | LD | GB | OF% | LD% | GB% | HR | K | BB | OF | LD | GB | IF | NIP | Tot | R/G | |
| 2004 | 638 | 0.09 | 0.38 | 0.11 | 36% | 25% | 36% | 3% | 15% | 8% | 15.5 | 43.2 | 18.1 | -1.0 | 5.0 | 82.6 | 4.9 |
| 2005 | 720 | 0.10 | 0.37 | 0.10 | 33% | 23% | 40% | 5% | 14% | 9% | 16.9 | 44.4 | 21.6 | -1.4 | 8.8 | 92.2 | 4.9 |
| 2006 | 683 | 0.13 | 0.31 | 0.08 | 33% | 21% | 44% | 6% | 15% | 10% | 21.3 | 30.8 | 17.2 | -0.9 | 9.9 | 79.5 | 4.4 |
| 2007 | 425 | 0.14 | 0.44 | 0.05 | 25% | 26% | 48% | 4% | 15% | 9% | 10.9 | 36.1 | 6.9 | -0.2 | 5.4 | 59.3 | 5.3 |
| Avg. | 617 | 0.11 | 0.37 | 0.09 | 32% | 23% | 42% | 4% | 15% | 9% | 16.2 | 37.7 | 16.1 | -0.9 | 7.5 | 77.6 | 4.8 |
| vs. MLB | -0.08 | -0.03 | 0.04 | 1% | 2% | -2% | -7% | -2% | -1% | -10.2 | 1.8 | 7.5 | 0.8 | -0.8 | |||
On the other hand, one of the season’s disappointments has been the left fielder for the Red Sox. A look at his batting profile shows that it’s all about the outfield fly, where his home run rate is down quite a bit. His line drive performance (run value and frequency) is still strong.
Ramirez, Manny |
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| Net Runs per Ball | % of Batted Balls | %/OF | %/PA | Total Net Runs | |||||||||||||
| BFP | OF | LD | GB | OF% | LD% | GB% | HR | K | BB | OF | LD | GB | IF | NIP | Tot | R/G | |
| 2004 | 663 | 0.39 | 0.41 | 0.07 | 41% | 15% | 41% | 23% | 19% | 13% | 71.0 | 28.1 | 13.2 | -1.1 | 16.4 | 127.7 | 7.3 |
| 2005 | 650 | 0.42 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 36% | 24% | 37% | 28% | 18% | 14% | 65.8 | 37.6 | -0.6 | -1.2 | 17.7 | 119.4 | 7.0 |
| 2006 | 558 | 0.38 | 0.42 | 0.04 | 40% | 22% | 36% | 25% | 18% | 18% | 53.5 | 33.2 | 4.8 | -0.8 | 23.3 | 114.0 | 7.8 |
| 2007 | 531 | 0.23 | 0.43 | -0.01 | 40% | 21% | 38% | 13% | 16% | 13% | 33.7 | 32.9 | -1.1 | -0.8 | 14.8 | 79.6 | 5.7 |
| Avg. | 601 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.03 | 39% | 20% | 38% | 22% | 18% | 15% | 56.2 | 33.1 | 4.0 | -1.0 | 18.1 | 110.4 | 7.0 |
| vs. MLB | 0.17 | 0.01 | -0.02 | 8% | 0% | -6% | 11% | 1% | 5% | 30.5 | -1.9 | -4.5 | 0.7 | 10.0 | |||
On the other end of the scale is Rockies center fielder Willy Taveras. Taveras is a groundball hitter but he’s particularly adept at something we don’t show on these tables: bunting. Taveras has contributed 14.4 runs on bunts. The next-most figure in the majors is Jose Reyes at 3.6.
Taveras, Willy |
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| Net Runs per Ball | % of Batted Balls | %/OF | %/PA | Total Net Runs | |||||||||||||
| BFP | OF | LD | GB | OF% | LD% | GB% | HR | K | BB | OF | LD | GB | IF | NIP | Tot | R/G | |
| 2005 | 635 | 0.01 | 0.36 | 0.10 | 24% | 19% | 54% | 2% | 16% | 5% | 1.0 | 29.8 | 22.8 | -1.0 | -0.5 | 63.8 | 3.8 |
| 2006 | 587 | 0.08 | 0.32 | 0.07 | 23% | 18% | 56% | 1% | 15% | 8% | 7.0 | 23.0 | 16.3 | -1.1 | 5.7 | 58.3 | 3.8 |
| 2007 | 382 | 0.05 | 0.40 | 0.07 | 29% | 17% | 52% | 3% | 14% | 7% | 3.5 | 16.2 | 8.9 | -0.7 | 3.3 | 45.6 | 4.5 |
| Avg. | 535 | 0.04 | 0.36 | 0.08 | 25% | 18% | 54% | 2% | 15% | 6% | 3.8 | 22.7 | 15.7 | -1.0 | 2.9 | 53.6 | 3.8 |
| vs. MLB | -0.15 | -0.03 | 0.04 | -6% | -3% | 10% | -9% | -1% | -3% | -19.1 | -8.5 | 8.2 | 0.5 | -4.3 | |||
The best groundball hitter in the majors continues to be Ichiro Suzuki, who leads the majors with 30 runs off groundballs (Derek Jeter is second, with 23). He’s made outs on only 64% of groundballs, versus the major league average of 75%.
Suzuki, Ichiro |
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| Net Runs per Ball | % of Batted Balls | %/OF | %/PA | Total Net Runs | |||||||||||||
| BFP | OF | LD | GB | OF% | LD% | GB% | HR | K | BB | OF | LD | GB | IF | NIP | Tot | R/G | |
| 2004 | 762 | 0.12 | 0.41 | 0.13 | 16% | 19% | 64% | 5% | 8% | 7% | 12.0 | 48.9 | 52.7 | -1.1 | 11.2 | 125.1 | 6.2 |
| 2005 | 739 | 0.14 | 0.32 | 0.08 | 23% | 22% | 54% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 18.9 | 42.8 | 26.1 | -1.0 | 10.5 | 99.9 | 5.1 |
| 2006 | 752 | 0.12 | 0.35 | 0.10 | 24% | 22% | 51% | 6% | 9% | 7% | 18.1 | 46.6 | 31.2 | -2.3 | 10.7 | 104.6 | 5.3 |
| 2007 | 565 | 0.04 | 0.42 | 0.12 | 23% | 19% | 56% | 4% | 9% | 7% | 3.8 | 36.9 | 30.1 | -0.8 | 8.8 | 81.6 | 5.5 |
| Avg. | 685 | 0.10 | 0.36 | 0.10 | 23% | 21% | 53% | 7% | 9% | 7% | 13.5 | 42.3 | 29.0 | -1.3 | 10.1 | 95.2 | 5.3 |
| vs. MLB | -0.09 | -0.03 | 0.05 | -8% | 0% | 10% | -4% | -7% | -2% | -15.9 | 2.4 | 19.4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | |||
Want to know why Ichiro’s teammate Jose Vidro seems to be having a decent year at bat (relatively, that is)? Because he’s made outs on only 68% of groundballs. No other part of his batting ball profile has improved over previous years.
Vidro, Jose |
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| Net Runs per Ball | % of Batted Balls | %/OF | %/PA | Total Net Runs | |||||||||||||
| BFP | OF | LD | GB | OF% | LD% | GB% | HR | K | BB | OF | LD | GB | IF | NIP | Tot | R/G | |
| 2004 | 467 | 0.20 | 0.38 | 0.04 | 27% | 19% | 51% | 13% | 9% | 10% | 20.0 | 26.7 | 7.2 | -1.1 | 12.0 | 65.4 | 5.3 |
| 2005 | 347 | 0.08 | 0.40 | 0.01 | 27% | 25% | 44% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 5.8 | 28.3 | 0.7 | -1.1 | 7.7 | 41.6 | 4.6 |
| 2006 | 511 | 0.08 | 0.41 | 0.02 | 29% | 22% | 46% | 5% | 9% | 9% | 10.0 | 37.1 | 4.0 | -1.1 | 9.8 | 59.7 | 4.4 |
| 2007 | 489 | 0.07 | 0.34 | 0.07 | 30% | 20% | 48% | 3% | 8% | 10% | 8.2 | 27.6 | 13.0 | -0.4 | 13.1 | 60.8 | 4.7 |
| Avg. | 449 | 0.08 | 0.38 | 0.03 | 29% | 22% | 47% | 5% | 9% | 9% | 7.9 | 30.6 | 5.8 | -0.8 | 10.4 | 53.7 | 4.5 |
| vs. MLB | -0.12 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -2% | 1% | 3% | -6% | -8% | 0% | -11.3 | 4.5 | -0.6 | 0.4 | 4.4 | |||
Three years ago, Eric Chavez appeared to be one of the best young hitters in the majors. This year, his outfield flies have been more productive, but his strikeout and walk rates have deteriorated. Not shown on the table is his infield fly rate, which has risen to a terrible 11% of all batted balls (the major league average is 4%).
Chavez, Eric |
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| Net Runs per Ball | % of Batted Balls | %/OF | %/PA | Total Net Runs | |||||||||||||
| BFP | OF | LD | GB | OF% | LD% | GB% | HR | K | BB | OF | LD | GB | IF | NIP | Tot | R/G | |
| 2004 | 577 | 0.30 | 0.34 | 0.03 | 37% | 18% | 41% | 21% | 17% | 17% | 43.0 | 22.5 | 5.2 | -1.2 | 22.6 | 92.2 | 6.1 |
| 2005 | 694 | 0.21 | 0.36 | 0.09 | 37% | 18% | 39% | 14% | 19% | 9% | 39.0 | 33.1 | 18.1 | -2.9 | 6.1 | 93.3 | 5.1 |
| 2006 | 576 | 0.18 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 37% | 18% | 39% | 14% | 17% | 15% | 26.6 | 30.4 | 0.5 | -2.6 | 18.0 | 72.9 | 4.8 |
| 2007 | 379 | 0.25 | 0.37 | 0.05 | 35% | 17% | 36% | 15% | 20% | 9% | 23.5 | 17.0 | 4.8 | -2.9 | 3.1 | 45.5 | 4.6 |
| Avg. | 550 | 0.21 | 0.39 | 0.05 | 37% | 18% | 38% | 14% | 18% | 11% | 29.1 | 26.3 | 7.5 | -2.8 | 9.2 | 69.3 | 4.8 |
| vs. MLB | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 5% | -3% | -6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 5.6 | -5.7 | -0.3 | -1.3 | 1.8 | |||
Chicago’s right fielder also has been a disappointment this year, though, like Pujols, he has picked it up lately. Really, Jermaine Dye’s 2006 is the year that stands out.
Dye, Jermaine |
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| Net Runs per Ball | % of Batted Balls | %/OF | %/PA | Total Net Runs | |||||||||||||
| BFP | OF | LD | GB | OF% | LD% | GB% | HR | K | BB | OF | LD | GB | IF | NIP | Tot | R/G | |
| 2004 | 590 | 0.27 | 0.40 | 0.04 | 37% | 19% | 38% | 14% | 22% | 9% | 40.6 | 30.5 | 6.1 | -1.8 | 3.9 | 79.2 | 5.1 |
| 2005 | 579 | 0.22 | 0.46 | 0.05 | 34% | 21% | 38% | 17% | 17% | 8% | 31.8 | 41.3 | 8.2 | -3.1 | 5.5 | 84.1 | 5.5 |
| 2006 | 611 | 0.36 | 0.48 | 0.06 | 38% | 20% | 39% | 23% | 19% | 11% | 58.3 | 42.0 | 10.5 | -1.0 | 9.1 | 119.0 | 7.4 |
| 2007 | 447 | 0.30 | 0.37 | -0.02 | 40% | 18% | 37% | 18% | 20% | 9% | 37.6 | 20.8 | -2.4 | -2.0 | 3.5 | 57.5 | 4.9 |
| Avg. | 546 | 0.29 | 0.45 | 0.04 | 37% | 20% | 38% | 20% | 19% | 9% | 42.1 | 34.2 | 5.3 | -2.0 | 6.1 | 85.7 | 6.0 |
| vs. MLB | 0.10 | 0.05 | -0.01 | 6% | -1% | -6% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 18.7 | 2.4 | -2.4 | -0.5 | -1.2 | |||
That’s a brief preview of batters. Next week, I’ll profile a number of pitchers using the exact same tables. And don’t forget to purchase your copy of the Hardball Times Annual now, which will include batted ball profiles of all major league players.