Checking in on the California and Carolina Leagues
The California and Carolina Leagues are home to many organizations’ top young prospects. Most prospects in the Single-A advanced leagues are a couple years away from the big leagues, but a handful of fast-trackers jump to Double-A and beyond each year. These leagues are often the first full-season stop for top prospects coming out of a four-year college program. The California League is consistently the most hitter-friendly of all the Single-A leagues due to high elevations, park dimensions, and warm weather. The league RA (runs allowed per 9 innings) is at 5.2 this year. That’s a significant drop from last year’s offensive levels, but the California League’s 2005 season was an outlier in the first place. The Carolina League, at 4.5 RA, is a more moderate context. See last week’s review of the Florida State League if you are interested in the more pitching-dominant of the three Single-A Advanced leagues.
Some of the best young prospects in the game will participate in the California/Carolina All-Star Game on Tuesday night. While most of the lower minor leagues put together two All-Star teams representing different divisions in the same league, this game features more exclusive talent because each of the leagues sends one team to the showcase. This design is similar to the MLB and Triple-A All-Star games, except that the Single-A Advanced leagues are smaller in size.
The league-leading San Jose Giants team will send four pitchers to the California League All-Star team. The Carolina League All-Star team will feature six players from the Kinston Indians. Last year’s All-Star Game ended in an 8-0 win for the Carolina League, with an MVP award for Nick Markakis.
The All-Star break is a convenient mid-season point in time to stop and assess the players in each league, so let’s get to it.
California League
The following lists represents the top 10 pitching performances (ranked by fielding independent ERA) among pitchers with at least 60 innings in the California League this year.
ORG AGE PLAYER IP W L H BB K HR ERA FIP-ERA SF 23 Nick Pereira 78.2 7 1 65 16 76 1 2.06 2.40 Struggling after promotion to PCL LAA 22 Jose Arredondo 82 4 6 54 34 108 3 2.20 2.82 Leads league in strikeouts SD 22 Michael Ekstrom 82.1 7 4 76 21 68 2 2.30 3.23 COL 22 Samuel Deduno 76 3 3 63 36 86 1 3.20 3.31 ARI 22 Gregory Smith 88.1 9 0 57 31 71 3 1.63 3.57 Promoted to Southern League SF 23 Anthony Moreno 72 5 3 78 29 73 4 4.63 3.74 5.52 ERA on the road SEA 21 Shawn Nottingham 84.1 3 6 88 29 76 5 3.52 3.76 SD 23 Brent Carter 71.2 5 2 80 11 44 5 4.02 3.82 1 ER over last 20 IP SD 23 Evan Meek 70.2 3 3 71 41 66 1 3.82 3.91
Now, let’s take a look at the most productive hitters in the California League. Gross Production Average (GPA) is a simple rate statistic that properly weights OBP and SLG and scales it in a way that resembles a batting average. The following GPA figures are not park-adjusted, but I will complement the cumulative numbers with information about possible park effects where appropriate.
ORG AGE PLAYER POS AB H BB SO HR GPA ARI 22 Mark Reynolds SS 238 80 35 62 20 .355 13 of 20 HR at Lancaster SEA 23 Michael Wilson OF 200 63 22 59 9 .314 TB 20 Reid Brignac SS 293 98 23 53 14 .312 Hitting .393 in June KC 24 Mike Stodolka 1B 214 61 48 51 8 .309 .269 hitter away from High Desert TEX 24 Ben Harrison OF 264 77 35 66 15 .308 OAK 25 Luke Appert 2B/RF 173 50 43 20 5 .307 ARI 20 Carlos Gonzalez OF 272 85 19 68 10 .298 7 of 10 HR at Lancaster TB 23 Chris Nowak 3B 258 82 30 47 4 .295 TEX 23 Tim Hulett Jr. IF 246 72 51 53 2 .295 Leads league with 51 walks SEA 22 Yung Chi Chen 2B 278 95 22 40 5 .294
All Star Most Likely to Succeed
Tampa Bay Devil Rays prospect Reid Brignac has made many of the improvements he needed to make this year. He is hitting for more power, while significantly cutting down on his strikeouts. Brignac also stands out relative to other California League prospects, such as Carlos Gonzalez, because his home/road splits don’t cast any doubts about how he will perform in more neutral contexts. He has also improved other facets of his game. For example, he is 15-for-19 in stolen base attempts this season. There are still some questions regarding whether or not he really fits in to the Devil Rays’ future plans as a shortstop, but Brignac has developed into a well-rounded player and is only 20-years-old.
All Star Most Likely to Struggle
Royals pitching prospect Billy Buckner (no relation to the former big league first baseman) has a 7-1 record and is going pitch in tomorrow’s All-Star game. Buckner is also walking 4.7 batters per 9 innings this year. At some point, all those free passes are going to be obstacles on his path to the big leagues.
Pleasant Surprise of the First Half
Jose Arredondo was a struggling infielder in the Angels system until he underwent a conversion to a pitcher less than two years ago. He is still unpolished and walks more batters than he should, but 108 strikeouts in 82 innings is an exceptional result for a guy still learning to pitch. Many project the hard thrower as a reliever at the higher levels of competition, but Arredondo has had success in a number of long outings as a starter this year.
Disappointment of the First Half
Marcus Sanders had a .407 OBP and 57 stolen bases in the South Atlantic League last year, but 2006 was supposed to be the year that he fully recovered from an old shoulder injury and started to show some power at the plate. Instead, Sanders has struggled to hit above .200 and is still waiting for his first home run of the year. He remains patient at the plate and is very useful when he does get on base, but he hasn’t erased any of the serious concerns about his ability to succeed at the highest levels of competition.
Carolina League
Here are some of the league’s top pitchers during the first half of the season:
ORG AGE PLAYER IP W L H BB K HR ERA FIP-ERA CLE 22 Scott Lewis 62.1 1 1 43 10 73 0 1.30 1.28 CLE 20 Chuck Lofgren 76 9 3 57 28 70 0 1.78 2.53 Leads league in wins CHW 23 Jack Egbert 86.1 5 5 84 31 73 2 3.34 2.91 3.02 ERA on the road HOU 24 Chad Reineke 87.2 6 5 73 25 76 4 2.98 3.00 HOU 20 Troy Patton 71.1 2 7 71 32 77 3 3.66 3.01 ATL 20 Kelvin Villa 63.2 5 2 67 26 50 1 2.69 3.06 BOS 24 Thomas Hottovy 87.2 7 5 76 24 58 3 2.98 3.16 Leads league in IP BOS 22 Luis Mendoza 63 5 4 67 14 46 4 3.14 3.32 ATl 20 Matt Harrison 81.1 8 4 77 16 60 6 3.10 3.37 PIT 23 Wardell Starling 73.2 4 4 53 17 45 3 3.18 3.40
The top hitters are once again ranked according to Gross Production Average (GPA):
ORG AGE PLAYER POS AB H BB SO HR GPA CLE 22 Trevor Crowe OF 219 72 48 46 4 .320 29 SB BAL 22 Nolan Reimold OF 220 59 44 69 10 .299 7 of 10 HR at Frederick PIT 24 Michael Carlin 1B 183 50 33 37 7 .297 CLE 24 Brian Barton OF 228 66 30 70 9 .296 .390 BABIP PIT 23 Brian Bixler SS 264 80 35 57 5 .290 23 extra base hits BOS 22 Jacoby Ellsbury OF 192 61 19 23 4 .284 17 SB BAL 23 Dustin Yount 1B 225 61 43 41 7 .282 ATL 23 Matt Young OF 243 69 46 34 1 .280 BOS 23 Ian Bladergroen 1B 200 50 24 56 7 .274 HOU 23 Drew Sutton 2B 238 61 42 48 9 .273
All Star Most Likely to Succeed
Trevor Crowe, the 14th overall pick from last year’s draft, is hitting his stride after a poor showing in his first year of professional baseball. It doesn’t look like he will hit for much power, but the center fielder should be a productive big leaguer because of his exceptional on-base skills. Crowe is also 29-for-35 in stolen base attempts this year. Injuries appear to be the only thing stopping Crowe from a rapid ascent through the minor leagues. He has experienced a number of nagging injuries during the past year and is currently on the disabled list with an oblique muscle injury.
All Star Most Likely to Struggle
Frederick Keys pitcher Radhames Liz earned some well-deserved attention after playing a major role in a no-hitter two months ago, but his stock will probably never be as high as it is now. After his trip to the California League/Carolina League All-Star Game, Liz will participate in the Futures Game in July. Meanwhile, his walk rate is increasing as the season progresses, and he has surrendered five home runs his last 27 innings. Expect mediocre results from Liz in the second half of the season.
Pleasant Surprise of the First Half
Most Indians fans probably don’t know who Scott Lewis is, because he rarely pitched during his first two years in the organization due to a series of arm injuries. Lewis was one of the top college pitching prospects in the country until he injured his elbow during his junior year. The Indians took a chance on him in the third round of the 2004 draft and the he finally appears healthy enough to succeed. He is striking out six batters for every one he walks and has not allowed a home run all year.
Disappointment of the First Half
The Braves’ struggles at the major league level have been well-documented this year, but the farm system also has its share of disappointments. Jake Stevens was one of the Braves’ top pitching prospects a year ago, but he struggled at Myrtle Beach last year and has been even worse this year. He recorded as many walks as strikeouts and struggled with inconsistency throughout the season. Stevens was demoted to the South Atlantic two weeks ago, and the good news is that he has only allowed one run over two starts since then.
