Checking in on the Eastern and Southern Leagues
The Eastern and Southern Leagues are two of three Double-A leagues in professional baseball. Each of these leagues will celebrate their annual All-Star game this week. The Eastern League All-Star Game will be held on Wednesday night in Altoona, Penn. The Southern League All-Star Game will occur tonight in Montgomery, Ala.
Top prospects in the Double-A leagues are usually about a year away from contributing to the parent club, but players occasionally make the jump from Double-A to the major leagues. Mike Pelfrey and Anibal Sanchez recently jumped to the big leagues from the Eastern and Southern Leagues, respectively. These two leagues are usually more pitcher-friendly than the Double-A Texas League. This year is no exception, and the runs allowed per 9 innings rate (RA) in both leagues are both below-average this year. The Southern League RA is 4.0 and the Eastern League RA is 4.2.
Eastern League
The following list represents the top 10 pitching performances (ranked by fielding independent ERA) among pitchers with at least 70 innings in the Eastern League this year.
ORG AGE PLAYER IP W L H BB K HR ERA FIP-ERA Notes DET 23 Humberto Sanchez 71.2 5 3 47 27 86 2 1.76 2.28 SP in Futures Game TOR 23 Davis Romero 73.2 6 5 57 19 70 3 2.93 2.55 NYY 23 Jeff Karstens 74 6 0 54 14 67 4 2.31 2.65 NYM 26 Willie Collazo 97.2 6 5 81 13 72 4 2.86 2.68 NYY 21 Philip Hughes 72 5 3 52 23 76 5 2.75 2.86 PHI 22 Scott Mathieson 85.2 6 2 67 26 95 7 3.05 3.07 PIT 26 Shane Youman 74.1 5 2 57 16 44 3 1.57 3.10 Leads league in ERA TOR 23 Kyle Yates 79 5 6 73 24 61 3 3.42 3.12 BOS 24 Kason Gabbard 73.2 9 2 51 25 68 4 2.57 3.19 TOR 24 Mike MacDonald 106.2 7 5 106 19 62 6 3.63 3.26 SF 26 Chris Begg 110 6 9 101 25 71 7 3.60 3.34 Leads league in IP
Now, let’s take a look at the most productive hitters in the Eastern League. Gross Production Average (GPA) is a simple rate statistic that properly weights OBP and SLG and scales it in a way that resembles a batting average.
ORG AGE PLAYER POS AB H BB SO HR GPA WAN 24 Kory Casto 3B 297 84 59 66 13 .306 Leads league with .402 OBP NYM 26 Michel Abreu 1B 233 79 18 52 10 .306 Leads league with .339 AVG NYM 28 Randy Ruiz DH 258 79 19 72 12 .300 BOS 24 Jeremy West DH 272 83 27 41 8 .293 TOR 22 Adam Lind OF 320 99 22 79 16 .292 Leads league with 16 HR CLE 26 Jonathan Van Every OF 215 58 26 70 10 .291 Promoted to IL PIT 25 Vic Buttler OF 295 91 22 39 5 .288 14 triples this year NYM 26 Shelley Duncan 1B 245 63 30 53 15 .284 BOS 22 Chad Spann 3B 292 89 23 70 7 .281 DET 31 Kurt Airoso OF 262 68 46 77 11 .279 PIT 29 Simon Pond 1B 292 83 35 70 10 .279
All Star Most Likely to Succeed
Philip Hughes struggled in yesterday’s Futures Game, but he just turned 20 years old and is already one of the best pitchers in the Eastern League. I get more e-mails about Hughes than any other baseball prospect, so I’ve been thinking about his performance a lot lately. Hughes has an above-average walk rate while striking out more than one batter per inning. Here’s something worth thinking about: Only one 19- or 20-year-old pitcher, Edwin Jackson, has had comparable strikeout and walk rates at the Double-A level during the past five years. That comparison is useful in two ways. First, it is an indication of how rare this kind of performance is for such a young pitcher. There is a temptation to dismiss Hughes as just another over-hyped Yankees prospect, but he really has had an exceptional career thus far. However, the comparison also illustrates how difficult it is to project young pitchers’ careers. Jackson was an outstanding pitching prospect, but he has not had any success since leaving the Southern League three years ago. So even if I declare Hughes “most likely to succeed” due to his accomplishments, you should be very skeptical of any kind of projection for a 20-year-old pitcher.
All Star Most Likely to Struggle
Sean Smith, a pitcher in the Cleveland Indians system, is 8-1 with a 2.36 ERA for Akron this year. He benefited from an exceptional batting average of balls in play (BABIP) during the first half, and I expect more of those batted balls to fall for hits in the second half of the season.
Pleasant Surprise of the First Half
Kevin Kouzmanoff has a .422 batting average for the Akron Aeros, but he doesn’t have quite enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title or the above rankings because he has missed time with hamstring and back injuries. Kouzmanoff has hit above .325 in each of his first two seasons in the Indians organization, so this performance isn’t a complete surprise. However, it’s very rare for any hitter to maintain this kind of success over a span of more than 200 plate appearances.
Disappointment of the First Half
Phillies pitching prospect Gio Gonzalez was an important component of last year’s Jim Thome trade. Gonzalez is leading the Eastern League in strikeouts, but is struggling for other reasons. First, he is walking far too many batters (4.25 walks per 9 innings). Gonzalez has also surrendered 16 home runs in only 99 innings pitched. His flyball tendencies are especially problematic in Reading, where he has allowed 11 of his 16 home runs. Gonzalez is only 20 years old and has plenty of time to re-establish himself as a top pitching prospect, but his Eastern League experience has exposed some significant problems.
Southern League
Here are some of the league’s top pitchers during the first half of the season:
ORG AGE PLAYER IP W L H BB K HR ERA FIP-ERA Notes LA 25 T.J. Nall 81 8 2 55 14 103 5 2.22 1.84 Leads league with 103 K ATL 24 Matt Wright 89 7 3 74 28 84 3 2.22 2.61 MIL 27 Corey Thurman 86 2 8 74 25 72 3 2.62 2.67 CHC 24 Chris Shaver 94 5 5 81 34 85 3 2.20 2.71 ARI 23 Micah Owings 74.1 6 2 66 17 69 4 2.91 2.72 Promoted to PCL ARI 24 Steven Jackson 92 4 7 83 25 80 5 2.64 2.77 LA 29 Spike Lundberg 86.2 7 1 68 28 62 2 2.18 2.86 CHC 24 J.R. Mathes 103.1 8 4 104 19 73 6 3.22 2.87 FLA 22 Anibal Sanchez 85.2 3 6 82 27 92 7 3.15 2.88 1-0 with Marlins ARI 23 Ross Ohlendorf 118.1 7 4 121 17 72 7 2.81 3.06
The top hitters are once again ranked according to Gross Production Average (GPA). The following GPA figures are not park-adjusted, but I will complement the cumulative numbers with information about possible park effects where appropriate.
ORG AGE PLAYER POS AB H BB SO HR GPA Notes CIN 22 Joey Votto 1B 333 109 43 76 19 .331 Leads league LA 22 Andy LaRoche 3B 230 71 41 32 9 .309 Promoted to PCL CHC 26 Nic Jackson OF 221 69 25 44 3 .292 SD 23 George Kottaras C 257 71 50 68 8 .290 CIN 25 Aaron Herr 3B 296 92 22 78 11 .288 TB 22 Elliot Johnson 2B 322 97 25 76 13 .287 10 of 13 HR at home CHW 24 Corey Smith 3B 261 70 48 57 10 .284 ARI 24 James D'Antona 3B 272 76 36 56 12 .283 ARI 23 Danny Richar 2B 316 98 38 48 5 .278 .327 GPA at home CHC 22 Scott Moore 3B 299 83 25 86 14 .276
All Star Most Likely to Succeed
George Kottaras is developing into an excellent catching prospect. His contact skills are only average, but both his on-base skills and his power production have been improving over the past two years. His defense behind the plate is O.K., so he should be able to earn a starting role with the Padres in another couple years as long as he continues to hit.
All Star Most Likely to Struggle
Cubs pitching prospect Juan Mateo is 6-4 with a 2.50 ERA this season. He is hittable, however, and his fielding-independent ERA is a full run higher than his actual ERA. I expect mediocre results from Mateo in the second half of the season.
Pleasant Surprise of the First Half
Joey Votto has had an up-and-down career in the Reds system. This is a good year for him; he is on pace to hit over 30 home runs with a .400 OBP. Only one player, Josh Phelps, has finished with comparable numbers in the Southern League during the past five years. Chattanooga is a hitter-friendly place to play, but Votto has actually hit 13 of his 19 home runs on the road in the Southern League.
Disappointment of the First Half
Jarrod Saltalamacchia might have had the most disappointing first half among all minor leaguers this year. The highly-touted catching prospect was hitting .197 with 4 home runs when a wrist injury sidelined him in late June. Fortunately, I think his first-half numbers suggest a rebound in the near future. Saltalamacchia remains patient at the plate and has an acceptable contact rate. He also has a .244 BABIP this year, but his distribution of balls in play suggest his BABIP should be nearly 80 points higher than it is. He is launching plenty of line drives and fly balls (especially to center field) that just are not falling for hits as often as usual. If his wrist injury is not serious, I expect an improved batting average and power production in the second half.