Checking in on the Midwest and South Atlantic Leagues
The Midwest League and the South Atlantic League are the two Single-A leagues in professional baseball. These two leagues provide the first full-season experience for many young prospects.
The South Atlantic League has a reputation as the more pitcher-friendly league, but in general the two leagues usually facilitate comparable levels of run production. This year, however, run scoring is significantly down in the Midwest League. While the runs allowed rate per 9 innings (RA) is usually between 4.5 and 5.0 runs in the Midwest League, it is down to 4.33 runs so far this season. The South Atlantic League is actually the higher run-scoring environment this year, at 4.74 RA.
The Midwest League All-Star Game takes place at 8:00 ET tonight in Davenport, Ohio. The South Atlantic League All-Star Game in Eastlake, Ohio will start at 7:35 ET tonight.
Midwest League
The following lists represents the top 10 pitching performances (ranked by fielding independent ERA) among pitchers with at least 60 innings in the Midwest League this year.
ORG AGE PLAYER IP W L H BB K HR ERA FIP-ERA Stl 19 Jaime Garcia 77.2 5 4 67 18 80 1 2.90 2.12 Tex 18 Omar Poveda 71.0 1 7 73 14 78 3 4.44 2.36 Laa 19 Nick Adenahart 90.2 9 2 72 21 89 3 2.08 2.36 0.83 ERA in May Tb 23 Mike Wlodarczyk 79.0 6 4 66 25 66 0 2.51 2.53 Tb 20 Wade Davis 74.0 4 4 56 35 94 2 2.31 2.60 6 ER over first 50 IP this season Tb 19 Jacob McGee 77.1 6 5 58 37 98 3 2.33 2.69 Leads league in strikeouts Cin 22 Zach Ward 71.2 6 0 50 20 66 1 2.89 2.76 Cin 20 Johnny Cueto 69.2 7 1 48 14 76 5 2.71 2.77 Min 20 Eduardo Morlan 63.0 3 3 47 27 73 2 2.57 2.77 Min 20 Oswaldo Sosa 72.0 5 5 69 25 58 0 2.75 2.85
Now, let’s take a look at the most productive hitters in the Midwest League. Gross Production Average (GPA) is a simple rate statistic that properly weights OBP and SLG and scales it in a way that resembles a batting average. The following GPA figures are not park-adjusted, but I will complement the cumulative numbers with information about possible park effects where appropriate.
ORG AGE PLAYER POS AB H BB SO HR GPA Oak 23 Jeff Baisley 3B 245 79 31 45 13 .317 Top SLG in the league Min 21 Eric Lis 1B 235 74 33 44 8 .309 Stl 24 Randy Roth 1B 265 81 16 39 13 .296 SD 19 Kyle Blanks 1B 204 60 25 53 7 .295 Oak 22 Anthony Recker C 174 53 19 55 7 .294 Stl 19 Bryan Anderson C 179 58 23 37 1 .294 Cin 19 Jay Bruce OF 259 75 22 58 10 .290 Sd 23 William Venable OF 212 67 28 40 1 .288 Stl 19 Colby Rasmus OF 260 79 25 50 8 .285 .304 GPA on the road Chc 20 Mark Reed C 175 60 11 39 2 .282
All Star Most Likely to Succeed
Justin Upton is the easy pick here, but I’m going with Dayton’s Jay Bruce instead. Bruce is a five-tool player that was also among the most productive hitters in the Pioneer League last year. Bruce just turned 19 a couple months ago, and he already has over 60 extra-base hits as a professional in the Cincinnati Reds system.
All Star Most Likely to Struggle
Mitch Atkins is 6-1 with a 2.29 ERA, and certainly deserving of a roster spot on the Western Division All-Star team. The Cubs prospect was virtually unknown before his hot start this season, however, and his component statistics are not in line with the early results.
Pleasant Surprise of the First Half
Nick Adenhart was one of the top high school pitching prospects in the country before elbow problems and Tommy John surgery sidelined him in 2004. The Angels drafted him and gave him a big signing bonus anyway, and the gamble appears to be paying off. He could be one of the top pitching prospects in baseball next year if he keeps this up.
Disappointment of the First Half
The Twins invested $1M in young first baseman Henry Sanchez last summer and so far the results are not good. The 260-pound first baseman has only hit 4 HR this year an is striking out in nearly 40% of his plate appearances. To make matters worse, Sanchez has already committed over a dozen errors at first base this year.
South Atlantic League
Here are some of the league’s top pitchers during the first half of the season:
ORG AGE PLAYER IP W L H BB K HR ERA FIP-ERA Bal 18 Brandon Erbe 61.2 4 4 50 17 73 1 2.34 2.06 Third round pick in 2005 Lad 23 Cory Wade 70.0 4 2 64 8 74 3 3.73 2.31 29 K and 3 BB in June Nym 19 Jonathan Niese 66.1 7 4 72 37 80 0 3.66 2.79 Phi 22 Matthew Maloney 80.2 4 5 50 30 93 3 1.56 2.83 Leads league in strikeouts Hou 22 Thomas Fairchild 87.2 8 3 72 18 79 5 1.85 2.97 Pit 21 Todd Redmond 68.1 5 4 60 11 65 4 2.77 3.00 Phi 19 Carlos Carrasco 76.2 4 4 55 29 83 3 2.47 2.98 Minor knee injury last week Bal 26 Manny Basilio 67.2 5 2 53 16 54 2 2.26 3.02 Bos 19 Michael Bowden 58.0 4 3 56 12 68 6 3.72 3.07 5.78 ERA in April Mil 24 Derek Miller 69.2 7 1 75 27 76 4 3.88 3.16
The top hitters are once again ranked according to Gross Production Average (GPA):
ORG AGE PLAYER POS AB H BB SO HR GPA Atl 21 Kala Kaaihue 1B 225 75 51 65 15 .363 Leads league with .622 SLG Bos 23 Jeff Natale 2B 175 60 41 20 10 .362 Promoted to Carolina League Fla 22 Gaby Sanchez 1B 189 60 39 20 14 .352 Lad 22 Sergei Pedroza OF 233 66 58 70 15 .343 Tied for league lead in HR Hou 23 Ole Sheldon 1B 201 69 38 33 3 .332 Hou 22 Justin Towles C 175 58 15 31 8 .320 Lad 23 Andrew Locke OF 240 79 19 41 8 .310 Hou 22 Mark Ori 1B 182 57 19 45 7 .306 Pit 22 Brent Lillibridge SS 253 72 49 58 10 .305 20-for-25 in SB attempts Bal 24 Ryan Finan 1B 209 57 47 46 9 .303
All Star Most Likely to Succeed
You probably know all about the risks associated with young pitchers, but I’m going to go with the 18-year-old who is striking out nearly 11 batters per 9 innings. I’m most impressed with Brandon Erbe’s consistency this season. Until last weekend, Erbe had not allowed any more than 3 earned runs in a start.
All Star Most Likely to Struggle
Relief pitcher Cory Stuart is having a nice season so far, but he’s older than much of his competition, injury-prone, and has been ineffective away from his pitcher-friendly home park.
Pleasant Surprise of the First Half
Kala Kaaihue just keeps on slugging for the Rome Braves. He has demonstrated outstanding on-base skills and league-leading power this year. He plays half his games in a pitcher-friendly home park, so you need to check out his slugging percentage on the road to fully appreciate his dominance at the plate this year.
Disappointment of the First Half
A couple of young shortstops, C.J. Henry and Elvis Andrus, share this honor. Many people believe both players have a chance to be the parent club’s shortstop of the future, but both ballplayers are struggling at the plate and on the field in the South Atlantic League. The Yankees’ C.J. Henry is hitting .225 this year and had a 3-error game last week. Andrus has only been a bit better at the plate, but he’s not making up for it in the field. He had his own 3-error game in April and has made 10 errors in the past month alone.