Checking in on the Pacific Coast and International Leagues
The Triple-A leagues include an interesting mix of professional baseball veterans who are waiting for one last chance at a big league job, and young prospects who are refining their game against experienced competitors. The Pacific Coast and International Leagues will send some of their best players to face one another in next week’s Triple-A All-Star Game in Toledo, Ohio. The season is about half-finished, so this is as good a time as any to check in on some of the most noteworthy performances in both leagues.
International League
The following lists represents the top 10 pitching performances (ranked by fielding independent ERA) among pitchers with at least 60 innings in the International League this year.
ORG AGE PLAYER IP W L H BB K HR ERA FIP-ERA PIT 23 Tom Gorzelanny 99.2 6 5 67 27 94 4 2.35 2.41 Started for Pirates on Sturday NYY 29 Kris Wilson 92 6 5 74 15 73 4 2.84 2.66 CLE 23 Jeremy Sowers 97.1 9 1 78 29 54 1 1.39 2.85 BOS 30 Jimmy Serrano 72 4 5 72 26 61 2 2.50 2.86 Sold to Korean team in June ATL 27 Kevin Barry 77.1 3 4 73 27 63 3 3.26 2.90 TB 23 Jason Hammel 77.1 3 6 80 21 63 5 4.07 3.08 PIT 30 Brandon Duckworth 74.1 8 3 67 23 57 4 2.42 3.12 Acquired by Royals CHW 24 Heath Phillips 103.2 10 3 90 27 76 7 2.00 3.21 DET 25 Wilfredo Ledezma 71.1 4 3 60 23 66 6 2.52 3.24 TB 26 Brian Stokes 87.1 4 4 81 29 69 5 3.61 3.27
Now, let’s take a look at the most productive hitters in the International League. Gross Production Average (GPA) is a simple rate statistic that properly weights OBP and SLG and scales it in a way that resembles a batting average.
ORG AGE PLAYER POS AB H BB SO HR GPA CHW 23 Josh Fields 3B 273 92 38 82 12 .329 ATL 24 Scott Thorman LF 256 83 30 44 15 .320 Promoted in June CHW 36 Ernie Young DH 183 54 37 43 7 .312 Leads league with .429 OBP TB 22 Elijah Dukes OF 217 64 33 37 8 .308 Returns from suspension this week NYM 21 Lastings Milledge OF 182 53 32 42 4 .308 Demoted from NY on Friday TB 30 Kevin Witt 1B 295 86 33 80 20 .301 Leads league with 20 HR TOR 30 Kevin Barker 1B 284 84 43 69 12 .300 DET 25 Ryan Raburn 2B 282 81 35 70 14 .295 CIN 25 Chris Denorfia OF 236 81 25 29 4 .291 Leads league with .343 AVG BAL 32 Andy Tracy 1B 264 70 41 68 15 .290
All Star Most Likely to Succeed
Tom Gorzelanny won’t be able to participate in the All-Star game because the Pirates promoted him when they sent Oliver Perez to Indianapolis. Gorzelanny has demonstrated above-average control and struck out about a batter per inning at each level during his rapid ascent through the Pirates farm system. I expect Perez to return to Pittsburgh later this year, but I don’t think Gorzelanny will lose his spot in the rotation when that happens.
All Star Most Likely to Struggle
Josh Fields is having a nice season. I just don’t think he will continue to see 45% of his batted balls in play fall for hits during the second half of the season.
Pleasant Surprise of the First Half
Lastings Milledge learned to walk. I noted Milledge’s changing walk rates earlier this year and, as it turns, out, he has maintained his walking ways and has a .425 OBP in the International League. His one-month stint with the Mets exposed some problems at the plate and on the field, but his results against much older competition in the first half of the season suggests that he could be a valuable part of the Mets’ regular lineup as soon as next year. It still is not clear how much power he will show in his prime, but he looks like a productive top-of-the-order hitter even if he doesn’t hit more than 10 to 15 home runs per season.
Disappointment of the First Half
Most baseball fans already know Delmon Young tossed a bat at an umpire in April. Did you also know that he did not hit a home run this season until three days ago? And did you know he has only walked 10 times in over 350 plate appearances with Durham over the past year? Young is still young, athletic, and a great contact hitter. He’ll probably be a good big leaguer in the long run, but his first half can only be described as disappointing.
Pacific Coast League
Here are some of the Pacific Coast League’s top pitchers during the first half of the season:
ORG AGE PLAYER IP W L H BB K HR ERA FIP-ERA CHC 26 Rich Hill 77.2 5 1 52 16 101 1 1.85 1.49 0-4 with Cubs in May MIL 22 Dana Eveland 65.2 3 3 43 23 74 1 1.78 2.28 LAA 23 Jered Weaver 77 6 1 63 10 93 7 2.10 2.43 4-0 with Angels MIL 25 Ben Hendrickson 69.1 6 2 43 24 59 1 1.95 2.85 MIL 34 Jared Fernandez 71.1 3 2 70 14 44 3 2.52 3.14 4 ER over last 27 IP WAN 26 Billy Traber 87.1 4 5 99 18 75 6 3.81 3.23 HOU 24 Jason Hirsh 104.1 9 2 80 44 92 4 2.42 3.40 STL 24 Anthony Reyes 71 4 1 61 8 65 9 3.04 3.44 2.16 ERA for St. Louis HOU 28 Chris Sampson 72.1 9 1 63 5 40 6 2.61 3.46 STL 27 John Webb 96 4 6 122 29 56 4 4.50 3.61
The top hitters are once again ranked according to Gross Production Average (GPA). The following GPA figures are not park-adjusted, but I will complement the cumulative numbers with information about possible park effects where appropriate.
ORG AGE PLAYER POS AB H BB SO HR GPA LAA 21 Howie Kendrick 2B 263 102 11 43 13 .359 Leads league with .388 AVG ARI 26 Scott Hairston OF 250 85 32 49 18 .346 Out with shoulder injury SD 27 Jack Cust OF 246 72 74 62 14 .338 Leads league with .458 OBP FLA 31 Scott Seabol 2B/SS 242 76 29 55 17 .328 Hitting .238 on the road LAA 36 Curtis Pride OF 191 65 40 49 4 .324 LAD 22 James Loney 1B 239 90 17 21 5 .322 17 of 27 XBH at Las Vegas HOU 28 Luke Scott OF 293 88 47 61 19 .317 Leads league with 19 HR SD 25 Paul McAnulty 1B 236 75 36 39 11 .316 FLA 33 Mike Kinkade 3B 238 83 19 36 4 .315 GPA of .271 on the road CHC 27 Michael Restovich OF 219 66 27 64 11 .308
All Star Most Likely to Succeed
Howie Kendrick is not a flawless ballplayer. For example, he seems to swing at every pitch he can reach, and is an average infielder at best. His ability to make contact and hit for a high batting average, however, is a rare and special thing. He walks less often than just about any other hitter in baseball, but Kendrick has hit above .300 at every major stop in his minor leaguer career, and has steadily improved his power production along the way. He plays half his games at a hitter-friendly context, but he’s actually been more productive on the road (.426/.464/.682) in the Pacific Coast League. If he keeps this up, he could be a perennial Silver Slugger contender in the big leagues
All Star Most Likely to Struggle
Joe Saunders is 10-3 with a 2.37 ERA for Salt Lake City, but his fielding-independent ERA suggests he should be surrendering closer to 4 runs per game. Expect more mediocre performances from Saunders in the second half.
Pleasant Surprise of the First Half
Milwaukee’s Dana Eveland was not effective after he made the jump from Double-A Huntsville to Milwaukee last year. In October, he struggled for a week in the Arizona Fall League before injuring his knee. The 22-year-old southpaw rebounded nicely during the first half of the 2006 season by putting together some of the most dominant pitching performances in the Pacific Coast League. Eveland only allowed four earned runs over his first 36 innings pitched this year, but he struggled once again during a call-up to Milwaukee last month.
Disappointment of the First Half
The Cubs don’t have a good reputation for developing positional players, but outfielder Felix Pie was widely regarded as the Cubs’ best prospect this Spring. The 21-year-old is struggling in the Pacific Coast League this year. Some Cubs fans want the team to “build around” a “potential leadoff hitter” next year, but this doesn’t seem like a good idea. Pie isn’t playing anything like a major league-caliber leadoff hitter. His strike zone judgment is a work in progress, so he is struggling to keep his OBP over .300 this year. Pie is also only 2-for-10 in stolen base attempts over the past two months. He is still very young and capable of significant improvement in the near future, but the early results are disappointing.