Chipper Jones and age-40 WAR
If the first two Wild Card play-in games are any indication, losses will leave teams numbed by the suddenness of their seasons’ ends. Chipper Jones must feel it more than most. His season was a farewell tour meant to be savored, but a bad call and a series of defensive mistakes—his own included—made for an abrupt end. As Jones exited the ballpark for the final time, his fans littered the field behind him with bottles. The scene was at odds with the punctuation Jones put on his tremendous career.
Jones finished his career with 90.4 WAR, which is good for 33rd all time, and seventh among third basemen, leaving him in the company of many of the best players ever to play the game. Jones will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer, though he will not quite qualify for the debate of the best players ever at their positions. However, Jones walked away from the sport in even rarer company.
Of the 23 third basemen who have a career WAR of at least 60.0, eight of them played in their age-40 seasons, Jones included. Jones has the highest combined WAR over 40 years old, delineated by seasons in which the players were 40 or older by May 1.
Third basemen with at least 60.0 career WAR who played in their age-40 season:
|
Name |
WAR |
Final Year |
Final Age |
WAR over 40 |
|
Chipper Jones |
90.4 |
2012 |
40 |
3.0 |
|
69.9 |
2004 |
41 |
2.8 |
|
|
71.8 |
1988 |
43 |
2.5 |
|
|
67.8 |
1986 |
43 |
1.6 |
|
|
75.3 |
1998 |
41 |
0.3 |
|
|
60.8 |
1918 |
40 |
0.3 |
|
|
67.9 |
1989 |
41 |
0.2 |
|
|
94.8 |
1999 |
40 |
-0.3 |
Jones actually tied both Martinez and Nettles with 3.0 WAR in their age-40 seasons, which would be excellent seasons by the standards of most players. However, those three were not most players. Jones had his best season in 1999 with 7.7 WAR. Martinez had his in 1995 with 7.5 WAR. Nettles had his in 1971 with 8.3 WAR.
By percentage of peak WAR, only Martinez was closer to his best in his age-40 season than Jones, and Martinez had become a full-time DH by age 32, so he should not really qualify. Jones, then, just completed the best age-40 season relative to his own standard of play of any great third baseman in history.
Third basemen with at least 60.0 career WAR who played in their age-40 season:
|
Name |
Peak WAR |
Peak Year |
Peak Age |
WAR at 40 |
% Peak at 40 |
|
Edgar Martinez |
7.5 |
1995 |
32 |
3.0 |
40% |
|
Chipper Jones |
7.7 |
1999 |
27 |
3.0 |
39% |
|
Graig Nettles |
8.3 |
1971 |
26 |
3.0 |
36% |
|
Darrell Evans |
10.2 |
1973 |
25 |
1.5 |
15% |
|
Paul Molitor |
6.3 |
1987 |
30 |
0.8 |
13% |
|
Tony Perez |
9.0 |
1970 |
27 |
0.5 |
6% |
|
Tommy Leach |
6.5 |
1907 |
31 |
0.3 |
5% |
|
Wade Boggs |
9.4 |
1985 |
26 |
-0.3 |
-3% |
Jones had an unprecedented season for a player of his position and age, and he stacks up well against the entire field, as well. I raised the standard to 80.0-WAR players who played in their age-40 seasons and ended up with 26 names. Jones ranks 10th in WAR over the age of 40, but every player in front of him on the list played in at least one additional season beyond age 40.
Players with at least 80.0 career WAR who played in their age-40 season:
|
Name |
WAR |
Final Year |
Final Age |
WAR over 40 |
|
84.7 |
1950 |
43 |
15.0 |
|
|
149.8 |
1917 |
43 |
13.5 |
|
|
88.7 |
1897 |
45 |
11.5 |
|
|
139.3 |
1963 |
42 |
8.5 |
|
|
168.2 |
2007 |
42 |
7.9 |
|
|
163.9 |
1928 |
41 |
6.8 |
|
|
108.7 |
1983 |
43 |
4.6 |
|
|
139.8 |
1960 |
41 |
4.4 |
|
|
114.1 |
2003 |
44 |
4.2 |
|
|
Chipper Jones |
90.4 |
2012 |
40 |
3.0 |
|
150.5 |
1976 |
42 |
3.0 |
|
|
163.2 |
1973 |
41 |
2.8 |
|
|
108.2 |
1916 |
41 |
1.9 |
|
|
108.0 |
1984 |
40 |
1.6 |
|
|
91.5 |
1986 |
45 |
1.5 |
|
|
142.6 |
1928 |
40 |
0.5 |
|
|
177.7 |
1935 |
40 |
0.3 |
|
|
134.9 |
1937 |
41 |
0.3 |
|
|
134.2 |
1930 |
42 |
0.1 |
|
|
116.3 |
1976 |
40 |
0.1 |
|
|
80.1 |
1904 |
45 |
-0.1 |
|
|
80.0 |
1911 |
41 |
-0.2 |
|
|
Wade Boggs |
94.8 |
1999 |
40 |
-0.3 |
|
81.4 |
1987 |
40 |
-0.4 |
|
|
99.7 |
2001 |
40 |
-0.5 |
|
|
83.9 |
2010 |
40 |
-0.9 |
If I apply the same standard for Jones compared to these players as I did for Jones versus other third basemen, it reveals how impressive a season Jones had in 2012. Only Luke Appling in 1947 had a better age-40 season relative to his peak, and only Appling, Cobb, and Wagner had more WAR in their age-40 seasons than Jones.
Players with at least 80.0 career WAR who played in their age-40 season:
|
Name |
Peak WAR |
Peak Year |
Peak Age |
WAR at 40 |
% Peak at 40 |
|
Luke Appling |
8.1 |
1943 |
36 |
4.7 |
58% |
|
Chipper Jones |
7.7 |
1999 |
27 |
3.0 |
39% |
|
Ty Cobb |
12.7 |
1917 |
30 |
4.8 |
38% |
|
Cap Anson |
7.2 |
1886 |
34 |
2.5 |
35% |
|
Honus Wagner |
12.9 |
1908 |
34 |
4.2 |
33% |
|
Pete Rose |
8.1 |
1976 |
35 |
2.2 |
27% |
|
Hank Aaron |
9.4 |
1961 |
27 |
2.4 |
26% |
|
Stan Musial |
11.5 |
1948 |
27 |
2.7 |
23% |
|
Rickey Henderson |
10.5 |
1990 |
31 |
2.4 |
23% |
|
Willie Mays |
11.5 |
1965 |
33 |
2.2 |
19% |
|
Nap Lajoie |
10.1 |
1906 |
31 |
1.6 |
16% |
|
Joe Morgan |
11.4 |
1975 |
31 |
1.6 |
14% |
|
Carl Yastrzemski |
12.1 |
1967 |
27 |
1.2 |
10% |
|
Barry Bonds |
12.9 |
2001 |
36 |
0.7 |
5% |
|
Tris Speaker |
11.0 |
1912 |
24 |
0.5 |
5% |
|
Ted Williams |
12.4 |
1946 |
27 |
0.4 |
3% |
|
Babe Ruth |
15.4 |
1923 |
28 |
0.3 |
2% |
|
Eddie Collins |
11.1 |
1909 |
21 |
0.2 |
2% |
|
Frank Robinson |
9.1 |
1966 |
30 |
0.1 |
1% |
|
Rogers Hornsby |
12.4 |
1924 |
28 |
0.1 |
1% |
|
Dan Brouthers |
9.4 |
1892 |
33 |
0.0 |
0% |
|
Bill Dahlen |
7.2 |
1896 |
26 |
-0.1 |
-1% |
|
Wade Boggs |
9.4 |
1985 |
26 |
-0.3 |
-3% |
|
Reggie Jackson |
9.9 |
1969 |
22 |
-0.4 |
-4% |
|
Cal Ripken |
11.1 |
1991 |
30 |
-0.5 |
-5% |
|
Ken Griffey Jr. |
10.2 |
1996 |
26 |
-0.9 |
-9% |
Jones easily could have held on for another few years as his skills diminished, as many of his historical peers have done. I believe it is fitting that he retired when he did. The Wild Card loss will rob him of the chance to end his career with a World Series victory, but he still will walk away on top. His outstanding play made that happen.
References & Resources
Statistics from FanGraphs.
Darrell Evans had 4.8 WAR in what you would call his age 39 season, missing the cutoff by a mere 25 days. I’m sure he had more WAR after turning age 40 than Chipper, but I’m not about to roll up my sleeves and prove it.
I think it is clear that Chipper could have hung around a season or two more, but chose to leave on his terms. Congrats to Mr.Jones. May he now go quietly into the nite as a hero in his time.
A Nats fan
Scott, why include Tony Perez and Edgar Martinez as third basemen? Perez played 70% of his career at 1B, Edgar about the same at DH. Perez played his last season at 3B in 1971 and Edgar in 1992. I don’t get it.
I only bring this up because omitting these two would make Chipper’s season look even better, wouldn’t it?
Yeah, I don’t get the Edgar Martinez thing either, but for sure if that’s the standard, then please include George Brett for his 1993 season.
==
This list contains so many outlier WAR numbers at at glance, it’s hard not to notice the limitations (crudeness?) of the stat just going a little ways back in baseball history..
Brett actually missed the date cutoff for what I deemed to be an age-40 season (by less than a month, but I had to draw the line somewhere), or else I would have included him. I opted to include guys that weren’t full-career third basemen because I found them to be interesting comparables. Guys like Edgar Martinez moved off the position by age 40, but WAR makes position adjustments, so it still provides a fair estimate of their value to their team. It’s up to you whether or not to give Chipper credit for sticking at third base until the end.