Countermanding the Colavito Curse: Part 4 (1966-67)
It required six seasons’ worth of virtual scenario, but at the conclusion of our previous episode we finally saw our version of the Cleveland Indians break through as a champion.
Actual Indians Virtual Indians
W L Pos Year W L Pos
76 78 4 1960 80 74 4
78 83 5 1961 91 70 3
80 82 6 1962 91 71 2T
79 83 5T 1963 85 77 5
79 83 6T 1964 86 76 4
87 75 5 1965 99 63 1
Now, in our final installment, we’ll test the question of whether this Tribe can sustain this level of excellence.
1965-66 offseason: Actual Indians’ deals we will make
Nov. 29, 1965: Drafted pitcher Alan Closter from the New York Yankees in the 1965 Rule 5 draft.
Nov. 29, 1965: Drafted pitcher Bob Heffner from the Boston Red Sox in the 1965 Rule 5 draft.
We doubt we’ll have room for either one of these guys, but there’s virtually no downside to giving them an audition.
Nov. 29, 1965: Sold outfielder Al Luplow to the New York Mets.
He’d looked quite good a few years earlier, but had failed to sustain that performance.
April 5, 1966: Sold pitcher Alan Closter to the Washington Senators.
Didn’t make the team. No harm, no foul.
1965-66 offseason: Actual Indians’ deals we will not make
Nov. 30, 1965: Signed catcher Del Crandall as a free agent.
No need for this veteran.
Dec. 1, 1965: Traded catcher Phil Roof and outfielder Joe Rudi to the Kansas City Athletics for outfielder Jim Landis and pitcher Jim Rittwage.
We don’t have Roof, and we don’t need Landis. So we’ll keep young Joe Rudi in our system.
Jan. 14, 1966: Traded outfielder Lou Clinton to the New York Yankees for catcher Doc Edwards.
March 10, 1966: Traded catcher Cam Carreon to the Baltimore Orioles for outfielder Lou Piniella.
April 6, 1966: Traded pitcher Ralph Terry to the Kansas City Athletics for pitcher John O’Donoghue and cash.
Don’t have ‘em, and don’t need ‘em.
1965-66 offseason: Indians’ deals we will invoke
Dec., 1965: Traded infielder Pedro Gonzalez to the Chicago White Sox for infielder Lee Elia.
Gonzalez, an adequate defensive second baseman who can fill in at other spots, did okay for us in a utility role in 1965, and is an established major leaguer at age 27. This is quite unlike the career minor leaguer Elia, who’s the same age and has shown none of Gonzalez’s capacity to hit for average.
But we see Elia’s superior defensive ability to handle shortstop as a better fit for our needs going forward. The White Sox would plausibly agree to the swap because at this point, with Ron Hansen still healthy, they have more need for help at second base than at shortstop.
April, 1966: Sold pitcher Jack Kralick to the New York Yankees.
Kralick went seriously south in 1965, and we don’t have room for him on our staff heading into ’66.
1966 season: Actual Indians’ deals we will make
June 16, 1966: Sold infielder Tony Martinez to the St. Louis Cardinals.
He’s once been a prospect, but was by now an expendable spare part.
1966 season: Actual Indians’ deals we will not make
June 2, 1966: Traded pitchers Don McMahon and Lee Stange to the Boston Red Sox for pitcher Dick Radatz.
In 1963, The Monster’s ERA had been 1.97 in 132 innings, and he was almost certainly the best relief pitcher on the planet.
In 1964, his ERA was 2.29 in 157 innings, and he was on the very, very short list of candidates for best relief pitcher on the planet.
In 1965, his ERA was 3.91 in 124 innings, and he was a below-average relief ace.
About a quarter of the way through 1966, at the age of 29, his ERA was 4.74 in 19 innings, and the Red Sox were no longer deploying him as their go-to guy.
Gee, what could go wrong with trading for Radatz at this point? Better yet, surrendering not one but two currently-effective pitchers to get him?
Our Indians will spend a second or two pondering that thought, and decide to wish Boston the best of luck with this one.
July 19, 1966: Traded outfielder Tony Curry to the Houston Astros for first baseman Jim Gentile.
Norm Cash has first base well in hand for us, thanks.
1966 season results
The one less-than-impressive aspect of our team in ’65 was the middle infield. Our incumbent shortstop, Dick Howser, was nagged by injuries and had trouble handling the position defensively, so over the course of the season he gave way to an erstwhile utility player, Larry Brown, who performed adequately but unexcitingly. And at second base, another young utility guy, Chico Salmon, emerged with most of the playing time; Salmon was toolsy but a bit ragged, rather the mirror image of the steady, bland Brown.
So for ’66 we’ll slide Howser over to second to battle it out with Salmon, and we’ve acquired the minor league veteran Elia to compete with Brown at shortstop.
On the mound, we’ll provide opportunities for a two impressive young right-handers: 23-year-old Steve Hargan, who got his feet wet in the majors in the second half of ’65, and 22-year-old rookie Tom Kelley.
Beyond that, we aren’t messing with the formula that delivered the 1965 flag.
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B N. Cash* 31 160 603 98 166 18 3 31 80 67 90 .275 .349 .469 .818 133
2B C. Salmon 25 126 422 45 108 13 2 7 40 21 41 .256 .285 .346 .631 81
SS L. Elia 28 101 280 28 59 9 3 7 27 18 57 .211 .258 .339 .597 71
3B M. Alvis 28 149 536 55 132 20 3 16 60 45 88 .246 .304 .384 .688 97
RF R. Colavito 32 151 533 76 127 13 0 30 73 76 81 .238 .336 .432 .767 119
CF T. Agee 23 146 503 83 141 22 6 20 61 32 97 .280 .330 .467 .798 127
LF L. Wagner* 32 150 549 65 153 20 0 23 75 46 69 .279 .334 .441 .775 121
C J. Romano 31 110 263 29 62 10 0 14 38 45 55 .236 .343 .433 .776 122
OF-3B C. Hinton 32 123 348 46 89 9 3 12 45 35 66 .256 .321 .402 .724 107
MI L. Brown 26 92 255 19 59 9 0 2 13 27 43 .231 .306 .290 .596 73
OF V. Davalillo* 29 81 172 21 42 3 2 1 9 11 21 .244 .286 .302 .589 70
C J. Azcue 26 65 151 12 41 5 1 4 19 9 12 .272 .311 .397 .708 102
MI D. Howser 30 67 140 19 32 9 1 2 4 15 23 .229 .292 .350 .642 84
C D. Sims* 25 52 133 13 35 2 2 6 19 11 31 .263 .338 .444 .781 123
OF T. Curry* 28 58 67 10 14 1 1 2 9 6 21 .209 .280 .343 .623 79
C B. Booker* 24 18 28 6 6 1 0 2 5 2 6 .214 .267 .464 .731 106
MI T. Martinez 26 17 17 2 5 0 0 0 0 1 6 .294 .333 .294 .627 83
Others 68 8 14 3 1 2 4 10 13 .206 .325 .368 .693 99
Pitchers 415 20 62 9 1 2 31 13 145 .149 .161 .190 .352 1
Total 5483 655 1347 176 29 183 612 490 965 .246 .306 .388 .695 99
* Bats left
Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
M. Grant 30 32 32 9 12 11 0 224 217 85 76 20 45 99 3.05 113
S. Siebert 29 33 29 10 15 6 1 217 172 79 66 22 56 148 2.74 126
T. John* 23 31 30 9 15 7 0 201 180 68 62 13 51 125 2.78 124
S. McDowell* 23 35 28 8 11 7 4 194 130 66 62 12 102 225 2.88 120
S. Hargan 23 35 18 6 12 6 0 171 154 52 47 8 41 118 2.47 139
L. Tiant 25 46 16 7 13 9 11 155 121 50 48 16 50 145 2.79 124
D. McMahon 36 61 0 0 9 6 15 90 71 28 24 7 43 61 2.40 144
S. Hamilton* 30 44 0 0 6 1 4 60 43 20 19 4 15 38 2.85 121
G. Bell 29 40 4 1 6 3 0 85 61 29 26 4 26 70 2.75 125
T. Kelley 22 21 5 1 3 3 0 63 65 37 31 9 28 43 4.43 78
Others 0 0 0 1 0 7 9 5 5 0 3 4 6.43 54
Total 162 51 102 60 35 1467 1223 519 466 115 460 1076 2.86 121
* Throws left
Our keystone tinkering doesn’t accomplish much, as the production there remains lackluster. And Kelley has little impact, just hanging on as the last guy in the bullpen.
But by and large, everyone else does well. In fact, two youngsters make a splash: sophomore center fielder Tommie Agee, who’d failed to hold his roster spot in ’65, is more than ready this time around, emerging as an all-around star. And the sinkerballing Hargan is terrific, squeezing his way into our amazingly deep starting rotation.
Indeed, our pitching is sensational, leading the league in ERA+. And its depth is illustrated by the fact that every single one of our five qualifiers for the league ERA title finishes within the top ten, and our sixth starter, swingman Luis Tiant, would have bumped Mudcat Grant to No. 11 if he’d worked just seven additional innings.
We’re a team without a superstar, yet we win 102 games, easily the most in the majors. It’s hard to be any deeper than that. We’re a back-to-back pennant winner for the first time in franchise history.
1966-67 offseason: Actual Indians’ deals we will make
Oct. 13, 1966: Purchased outfielder Willie Smith from the California Angels.
Wonderful Willie had enjoyed immediate success when converted from pitcher to outfielder at the major league level by the Angels in 1964. But in 1966, he encountered his first sustained hitting slump, and it was a humdinger, as he lost his first-string job and the confidence of the California organization.
It made sense for the Indians to be quick to give Smith another shot, as he was still just 27 years old at this point.
Dec. 20, 1966: Traded infielder Dick Howser to the New York Yankees for pitcher Gil Downs and cash.
The once-exciting 30-year-old Howser’s productivity had been steadily degraded by accumulated hurts, until by this point it made sense to essentially dump him.
Nov. 28, 1966: Drafted pitcher Billy Wynne from the New York Mets in the 1966 Rule 5 draft.
We’ll give him a shot …
April 10, 1967: Returned pitcher Billy Wynne (earlier draft pick) to the New York Mets.
… but he won’t make it.
1966-67 offseason: Actual Indians’ deals we will modify
The actual Indians did this:
Jan. 4, 1967: Traded outfielder Jim Landis, pitcher Jim Weaver, and catcher Doc Edwards to the Houston Astros for outfielder Lee Maye and catcher Ken Retzer.
If this deal appears strange from the Astros’ perspective, it’s only because it was. Exactly what Houston GM Tal Smith was expecting to accomplish is a bit vague.
Anyway, we don’t have Landis or Edwards, so we can’t make this precise trade. But, hell, we can easily do better than the lame duo of the over-the-hill Landis and the triple-A roster-filler Edwards. We’ll do this instead:
Jan. 4, 1967: Traded outfielder Jose Vidal and pitcher Jim Weaver to the Houston Astros for outfielder Lee Maye.
We’ll dispense with the swap of minor league catchers. Vidal is a toolsy young guy who offers a chance of helping the Astros. We’ll accommodate their apparent eagerness to rid themselves of one of the better platoon bats of the era.
1966-67 offseason: Actual Indians’ deals we will make
Oct. 15, 1966: Purchased infielder Gus Gil from the Cincinnati Reds.
Offering utility infielder insurance that can be parked at triple-A.
1966-67 offseason: Actual Indians’ deals we will not make
Oct. 14, 1966: Released catcher Del Crandall.
Never signed him.
1967 season: Actual Indians’ deals we will not make
April 25, 1967: Traded pitcher Dick Radatz to the Chicago Cubs for a player to be named later and cash. (On Nov. 21, 1967, the Cubs sent outfielder Bob Raudman to the Indians, completing the deal.)
So, the Cleveland parlay turned out to be Don McMahon and Lee Stange for the immortal Bob Raudman and cash. Mmm-hmm. Oh, plus several months of lousy Dick Radatz pitching as a bonus.
Gosh, but no, thanks.
May 1, 1967: Sold pitcher Jack Kralick to the New York Mets.
Already sold him.
May 6, 1967: Purchased pitcher Orlando Pena from the Detroit Tigers.
We like him, but we just don’t have room for him.
June 4, 1967: Traded pitcher Gary Bell to the Boston Red Sox for first baseman Tony Horton and outfielder Don Demeter.
We have no need for Horton, so we’ll hang on to the steady, solidly effective Bell.
July 29, 1967: Traded outfielder Rocky Colavito to the Chicago White Sox for outfielder Jim King and a player to be named later. (On Oct. 26, 1967, the White Sox sent infielder Marv Staehle to the Indians, completing the deal.)
The Rock’s rapid early-thirties decline has surely been disappointing, but there’s no need to get all this dramatic about it. We’ll retain the veteran slugger and deploy him in a platoon role over the balance of the season.
1967 season results
Seeking our third straight flag, we ain’t fixing what ain’t broken. Our roster is nearly unchanged, with the only turnover being Maye replacing Tony Curry as our lefty-hitting backup corner outfielder, rookie Vern Fuller replacing Howser in a utility infielder spot, and rookie George Culver nosing out Kelley for the final rung on the pitching ladder.
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B N. Cash* 32 152 488 64 118 16 5 22 72 79 98 .242 .350 .430 .780 128
2B C. Salmon 26 123 401 39 97 19 2 5 33 26 49 .242 .285 .337 .622 82
SS L. Elia 29 112 343 32 76 14 1 7 33 27 83 .222 .277 .329 .606 77
3B M. Alvis 29 157 605 63 155 21 4 20 67 36 102 .256 .295 .403 .698 103
RF R. Colavito 33 123 381 30 89 14 1 9 50 48 40 .234 .317 .346 .664 95
CF T. Agee 24 150 476 66 115 25 2 14 47 39 113 .242 .307 .391 .697 104
LF L. Wagner* 33 135 433 56 105 15 1 15 54 37 76 .242 .316 .386 .701 105
C J. Azcue 27 86 295 33 74 12 5 11 34 22 35 .251 .306 .437 .743 116
RF-LF L. Maye* 32 115 297 43 77 20 4 9 27 26 47 .259 .319 .444 .763 122
SS L. Brown 27 101 243 19 55 8 1 4 19 26 33 .226 .299 .317 .616 81
OF-1B C. Hinton 33 98 249 28 61 10 2 5 19 22 50 .245 .303 .361 .665 94
C D. Sims* 26 74 226 21 46 7 2 10 31 25 53 .204 .295 .385 .680 98
OF V. Davalillo* 30 116 239 31 68 11 3 1 15 7 20 .285 .303 .368 .671 96
2B V. Fuller 23 73 206 18 46 10 0 7 21 19 55 .223 .297 .374 .671 96
C J. Romano 32 24 58 1 6 1 0 0 2 14 16 .103 .278 .121 .398 21
OF W. Smith* 28 21 32 0 7 2 0 0 2 1 10 .219 .242 .281 .524 53
Others 93 10 26 6 2 0 6 6 16 .280 .317 .387 .704 106
Pitchers 393 34 69 7 2 4 27 8 122 .176 .179 .234 .413 21
Total 5458 588 1290 218 37 143 559 468 1018 .236 .297 .368 .665 94
* Bats left
Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
S. Hargan 24 32 27 14 14 12 0 223 177 78 64 9 73 143 2.58 128
L. Tiant 26 35 27 8 12 8 2 214 174 75 64 23 68 221 2.69 123
S. McDowell* 24 35 31 8 12 12 0 212 177 99 88 18 111 215 3.74 89
S. Siebert 30 34 26 7 10 11 4 185 136 59 49 17 54 136 2.38 139
T. John* 24 33 27 8 11 12 0 178 145 63 53 13 49 110 2.68 124
M. Grant 31 27 14 2 5 7 0 95 116 51 47 10 18 50 4.45 74
D. McMahon 37 63 0 0 6 2 10 109 71 29 26 9 41 83 2.15 154
G. Bell 30 53 5 2 6 4 7 103 78 35 30 7 34 76 2.62 126
S. Hamilton* 31 44 0 0 3 3 6 62 57 26 25 8 24 56 3.63 91
G. Culver 23 18 0 0 2 1 1 25 24 13 11 1 10 14 3.96 84
S. Williams 30 12 4 1 5 2 1 50 38 15 14 3 16 50 2.52 131
Others 1 0 1 1 0 24 25 15 14 2 17 18 5.25 63
Total 162 50 87 75 31 1480 1218 558 485 120 515 1172 2.95 112
* Throws left
Well, it seems that even a Swiss watch begins to wind down at some point. We show some age in several key spots, and this team is clearly not the juggernaut it’s been for the past two seasons.
The primary disappointment is Colavito, who encounters a fall-off-the-cliff year at the age of 33. But several other important veteran hitters begin to slow down as well, including Leon Wagner, Chuck Hinton, and, perhaps, Norm Cash. John Romano doesn’t slow down; he slams into the proverbial wall. Even our young star Agee finds that things aren’t as easy this time around. Altogether our offensive production is reduced: it’s competent, but not a strength.
It’s pitching that remains our strength. But even on that side we find some issues, as Grant struggles big time, and Sam McDowell, of all people, has some difficulties as well. Our staff remains among the best in the league, but it’s no longer clearly the very best, as it was in ’66.
Thus we achieve a Pythagorean record of 86-76. Since the actual 1967 Indians finished one win above their Pythag, we’ll have ours do the same, and we’ll come in at 87-75. Not good enough to win any pennants, right?
Well, probably not. But let’s remember what particular league we’re dealing with, here, and consider just how our scenario would likely impact the key contenders.
The Boston Red Sox won it that year, of course: “The Impossible Dream” and all that. But in our scenario, the Red Sox don’t have Gary Bell efficiently filling a crucial workhorse role on a somewhat shaky pitching staff. Would they have been able to trade Tony Horton for another pitcher as capable as Bell? How many fewer games would they win than their actual 92?
And how many fewer than 91 would the Tigers win, without Cash? And how many fewer than 89 would the White Sox win, without Agee, McMahon, or Tommy John?
The lone contestant in the actual 1967 A.L. “Great Race” coming out smelling like a rose here are the Minnesota Twins, who went 91-71 with Mudcat Grant, whom as we see had a bad year. Give them any half-way decent pitcher in place of Grant, and they probably win at least 91 (and presumably they would have Lee Stange, whom they actually traded to the Indians for Grant in mid-1964, still in his place, and Stange had a good year in ’67—for Boston, so putting him back with the Twins is another stroke against this scenario’s Red Sox). So we can probably conclude that it would have been Minnesota grabbing its first pennant in our 1967 scenario.
As for our Indians, depending on how severely we want to handicap the others, my guess is that 87 wins would probably yield second place, maybe third, depending on what other moves the Red Sox and Tigers might have made to adjust to their different situations.
Well then
Our two-pennant mini-dynasty seems to be over. While this Cleveland pitching staff still appears very formidable, it’s clear that a significant rebuilding job will be necessary in the field, as the core of this offense is looking rather long in the tooth.
But we’ve enjoyed a nice ride on the Colavito-and-Cash axis. We’ve demonstrated that Frank Lane’s foolish squandering of those specific assets definitely cost the Cleveland Indians the chance at contending in the 1960s. Lane’s successor Gabe Paul, though he didn’t commit any blunders that catastrophic, compounded the problem by expending so much talent (Romano and Agee and John) to get Colavito back, and also by frittering away significant pitching resources in Grant, McMahon, and Steve Hamilton.
Actual Indians Virtual Indians
W L Pos Year W L Pos
76 78 4 1960 80 74 4
78 83 5 1961 91 70 3
80 82 6 1962 91 71 2T
79 83 5T 1963 85 77 5
79 83 6T 1964 86 76 4
87 75 5 1965 99 63 1
81 81 5 1966 102 60 1
75 87 8 1967 87 75 2?
Great stuff, Philip.
Another excellent alternate timeline piece!
Now some cynical Boston fans may argue it was merely a sinister plot to deny the Red Sox the ‘67 flag. But since we all know that Steve is a tried and true Yankees fan who will loudly be cheering on New York to beat Tampa Bay tonight at all costs (even though a NY win will clinch – at minimum – a wild card tie for the Red Sox), his motives need to be questioned.
Besides, thanks to Steve, instead of denying the Red Sox their Impossible Dream season in 1967, he not only hands them the World Series but (no doubt, unintentionally) helps them win at least division titles in 1972 and 1974 and almost certainly another World Championship in 1975 (when Jim Rice sat out the entire series due to a wrist injury). Here’s how:
Recall that Steve wrote:
“1965 season: Actual Indians’ deals we will not make…
June 14, 1965: Purchased pitcher Jack Spring from the California Angels.
We don’t have room for this pioneer LOOGY.”
Spring had pitched in over 100 games for the Angels, 1962-63. The 32-year old saw limited mound time with the Indians in 1965, pitching only in 14 games. Cleveland then sent him down to AAA ball, where he flourished with the Portland Beavers. In 1967, Spring appeared in 69 games, all in relief. He went 10-5 with an ERA of 2.45.
In Steve’s alternative time lime, it is very plausible that Spring stays within the Angels farm system. Pitching well in 1966-67, he gets a call up in May and the joins the bullpen, with California releasing Nick Willhite to make room for him.
Willhite, therefore, is not available to the Angels when they would have otherwise traded him to the Mets for Jack Hamilton (who the Angels eventually tried to turn into a starter).
Without Hamilton, the Angels retain Jack Sanford for their starting rotation, passing up an offer of Roger Repoz from Charlie Finley’s Kansas City Athletics. Sanford, a native of Wellesley Hills, Massachusetts, gets the ball when the Angels visit Fenway on August 18th.
In the bottom of the 4th inning, Sanford WALKS slugger Tony Conigliaro. Rico Petrocelli then triples home two runs, the Red Sox eventually winning the game, 3-2.
Conigliaro finishes the season with 30 homeruns and helps Boston not only win the pennant, but defeat St. Louis in the Fall Classic.
A healthy Conigliaro all but assures the Red Sox the division title in 1972, prevents the collapse in 1974 and sets up a dramatic victory over Cincinnati in 1975.
Boston takes the pennant again in 1977, narrowly edging out Baltimore and New York thanks to several timely walk-off homeruns by Tony C late in the season. In game six of the World Series against the Dodgers, Conigliaro sends a Charlie Hough knuckleball over the Monster for his 3rd home run of the game as Boston takes the Series, prompting ABC guest commentator Thurman Munson to dub him, “Mister October.”
There’s no need for a AL East playoff game in 1978 because the Red Sox win the division handily. In his final career at-bat, Conigliaro homers off Dodgers young fireballer Bobby Welch to help Boston win back-to-back championships.
‘‘his motives need NOT to be questioned.’’
Well, Chris, I guess it’s the usual: I don’t know what’s nerdier, the fact that I’ve written 300 articles, or the fact that you’ve counted them.
Happy 300th article, Steve.
Dude, seriously?
Dude – seriously.