Filling the Mickey Vernon Gaps (Part 2)
In our previous volume, we introduced the phenomenon of good players who endured bad years, and speculated as to how each guy’s career might have looked if, to use Bill James’ words, “he had just put in an ordinary progression between his high spots.”
Now it’s time to explore another dozen interesting cases. All adjusted stat lines are presented in blue font. For our methodology, please see the References and Resources section below.
The Pre-Mickey Mickey
The similarities between this guy and Mickey Vernon are just eerie:
– Lefty-batting, lefty-throwing first basemen
– Renowned as excellent fielders
– Started their careers with Washington, were traded away, and came back
– Very good line-drive hitters, showed decent home run power after leaving cavernous Griffith Stadium
– Star players in their best seasons, but plagued with inconsistency
Kuhel appears to have been injury-prone, and he struggled with the bat when he was dinged-up. Our enhanced version here is no Hall of Famer, but he emerges as a very fine player, a Chris Chambliss or Mark Grace kind of talent.
Year Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ 1930 24 18 63 9 18 3 3 0 17 5 6 .286 .348 .429 .777 96 1931 25 139 524 70 141 34 8 8 85 47 45 .269 .335 .410 .745 94 1932 26 136 518 77 163 30 8 9 89 50 38 .315 .376 .455 .831 115 1933 27 153 602 89 194 34 10 11 107 59 48 .322 .385 .467 .852 125 1934 28 123 490 76 155 27 8 8 80 49 37 .316 .379 .453 .832 118 1935 29 150 603 104 181 36 8 11 103 69 35 .300 .372 .445 .817 113 1936 30 149 588 107 189 42 8 16 118 64 30 .321 .392 .502 .894 125 1937 31 145 574 96 178 36 9 13 99 64 33 .309 .378 .470 .848 116 1938 32 132 502 94 146 25 7 13 54 67 46 .291 .374 .446 .821 103 1939 33 139 546 107 164 24 9 15 56 64 51 .300 .376 .460 .836 110 1940 34 155 603 111 169 28 8 27 94 87 59 .280 .374 .488 .862 120 1941 35 154 602 107 163 32 7 22 84 81 58 .270 .357 .456 .813 115 1942 36 135 506 86 137 22 6 12 65 71 40 .271 .361 .409 .770 118 1943 37 148 549 75 137 29 6 6 61 74 43 .249 .339 .360 .699 105 1944 38 139 518 90 144 26 7 4 51 68 40 .278 .362 .378 .740 116 1945 39 142 533 73 152 29 13 2 75 79 31 .285 .378 .400 .778 134 1946 40 78 258 26 68 9 3 4 22 26 26 .264 .333 .368 .701 99 1947 41 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 .000 .000 .000 .000 100 Career 2237 8582 1397 2499 466 129 181 1260 1024 668 .291 .367 .439 .806 114
“Most Unpredictable Career”
In his original Historical Baseball Abstract, Bill James named the player with the most unpredictable career for various decades. This guy won it for the 1950s.
There’s no way we can make that monster 1950 season to be anything other than the fluke it was—Dropo never even had a minor league season nearly as good—but we can fill in the deep potholes he encountered on his road following 1950. “Moose” was pretty much your prototypical huge, slow, poor-fielding, one-dimensional longballing first baseman, one of several such right-handed-hitting behemoths the Red Sox deployed through the ’40s, ’50s, and ’60s in a stubborn effort to leverage the Green Monster: Rudy York, Jake Jones, Dick Gernert, Norm Zauchin, and Dick Stuart were the others. George Scott was different only in that he was a slick fielder.
Year Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ 1949 26 11 41 3 6 2 0 0 1 3 7 .146 .205 .195 .400 3 1950 27 136 559 101 180 28 8 34 144 45 75 .322 .378 .583 .961 134 1951 28 129 503 69 143 22 4 25 99 40 71 .284 .337 .491 .828 113 1952 29 152 591 69 163 24 4 29 97 37 85 .276 .323 .477 .800 118 1953 30 147 585 77 164 27 5 25 112 37 76 .281 .324 .474 .798 114 1954 31 133 455 50 127 18 3 17 73 34 66 .279 .329 .444 .773 113 1955 32 141 453 55 127 15 2 19 79 42 71 .280 .343 .448 .791 109 1956 33 120 346 40 93 10 1 13 60 32 54 .270 .331 .420 .752 97 1957 34 93 223 24 57 2 0 13 49 16 40 .256 .300 .439 .740 99 1958 35 91 214 21 57 8 2 9 39 17 42 .266 .319 .449 .768 100 1959 36 88 190 21 46 10 0 7 23 16 27 .242 .303 .405 .708 93 1960 37 79 179 16 48 8 0 4 21 20 19 .268 .343 .380 .723 97 1961 38 14 27 1 7 0 0 1 2 4 3 .259 .355 .370 .725 96 Career 1334 4366 548 1218 174 29 197 800 343 636 .279 .332 .467 .799 110
And here was James’ pick for the 1960s. Harper was a superior all-around player, with blazing speed, defensive versatility, and good strike zone judgment. But his hitting was as wackily inconsistent as can be; some seasons he was a genuine star and in others he was barely worthy of regular play.
Year Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ 1962 21 6 23 1 4 0 0 0 1 2 6 .174 .240 .174 .414 12 1963 22 129 408 67 106 12 3 10 37 44 72 .260 .335 .377 .712 103 1964 23 130 457 78 116 15 3 11 41 54 85 .255 .333 .369 .702 95 1965 24 159 646 126 166 28 3 18 64 78 127 .257 .340 .393 .733 100 1966 25 156 615 112 162 26 4 14 53 71 113 .263 .340 .384 .724 94 1967 26 137 516 86 125 18 3 11 42 72 89 .242 .334 .353 .688 89 1968 27 139 372 53 97 20 3 11 38 42 72 .261 .337 .419 .755 129 1969 28 152 582 95 162 27 3 24 68 83 101 .278 .368 .457 .825 132 1970 29 154 604 104 179 35 4 31 82 77 107 .296 .377 .522 .899 145 1971 30 153 598 96 170 32 4 25 72 73 102 .284 .362 .477 .839 138 1972 31 146 563 92 153 25 3 16 64 63 97 .272 .345 .411 .757 120 1973 32 147 566 92 159 23 3 17 71 61 93 .281 .351 .422 .773 112 1974 33 137 525 83 141 20 3 13 55 56 84 .269 .339 .393 .733 105 1975 34 123 354 51 90 14 1 5 38 43 60 .254 .337 .342 .679 98 1976 35 46 77 8 18 5 0 1 7 10 16 .234 .318 .338 .656 98 Career 1914 6906 1146 1848 301 39 207 734 829 1224 .268 .346 .412 .758 112
Big Klu
Dropo was an excellent choice for “Most Unpredictable Career” of the 1950s, but this fellow might well have been the runner-up. Kluszewski was an odd player in a couple of regards: He was huge and strong (famed for baring his intimidating biceps by going sleeveless in the hot Cincinnati summer months), yet he was an extreme contact hitter, very rarely striking out and generally maintaining a high batting average. And his power production was all over the map.
There’s an explanation behind Kluszewski’s home run spike from 1952 (16) to 1953 (40), namely that the Reds moved the right field fence inward at Crosley Field. Still, no one could have anticipated the home run barrage that Kluszewski would unleash over the next few seasons. There’s also an explanation behind his sudden home run drought of 1958-59: back trouble. Still, few power evaporations have been that severe.
Our version of “Klu” traces a far more typical arc of power production. He doesn’t emerge as a Hall of Famer, but he goes from 279 career homers to 343.
Year Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ 1947 22 9 10 1 1 0 0 0 2 1 2 .100 .182 .100 .282 -23 1948 23 113 379 49 104 23 4 12 57 18 32 .274 .307 .451 .758 106 1949 24 135 535 70 165 32 1 17 90 26 26 .308 .340 .463 .803 113 1950 25 134 538 76 165 37 0 25 111 33 28 .307 .348 .515 .863 124 1951 26 141 547 71 160 32 4 18 91 38 30 .293 .339 .466 .805 113 1952 27 142 534 80 170 25 6 28 97 51 31 .318 .377 .542 .919 152 1953 28 149 570 97 180 25 0 40 108 55 34 .316 .380 .570 .950 142 1954 29 149 573 104 187 28 3 49 141 78 35 .326 .407 .642 1.049 166 1955 30 153 612 116 192 25 0 47 113 66 40 .314 .382 .585 .967 147 1956 31 138 517 91 156 14 1 35 102 49 31 .302 .362 .536 .898 132 1957 32 104 322 52 95 11 1 21 62 27 18 .295 .350 .522 .871 124 1958 33 119 409 60 122 14 3 20 70 38 24 .298 .357 .487 .844 124 1959 34 99 243 27 63 12 1 10 33 19 24 .259 .313 .434 .747 101 1960 35 89 206 24 56 10 0 8 39 23 14 .274 .346 .439 .784 112 1961 36 107 263 32 64 12 0 15 39 24 23 .243 .303 .460 .764 93 Career 1780 6257 948 1880 298 23 343 1154 545 391 .300 .357 .520 .876 129
George and Paul (Not John and Ringo)
I bet you never linked the following two guys together; I know I never had until undertaking this exercise. But once you think about it, they share some interesting commonalities:
– Both are Hall of Famers, but not “inner circle” types. (Sisler might even be considered a rather marginal Hall of Famer.)
– Both are high-average specialists with moderate home run power.
– Both suffered illness/injury problems which significantly dampened their career totals.
If Sisler is a marginal Hall of Famer, that’s entirely on the basis of the shortness of his peak and his less-than-imposing career totals. Even his strongest detractor must acknowledge that through 1922, Sisler was a brilliant player. However, in the 1922-23 off-season he developed a severe case of sinusitis, which infected Sisler’s optic nerves and caused double vision. He missed the entire 1923 season, and though he eventually recovered and resumed his career, Sisler’s eyesight was permanently hindered. For the second half of his career he was so-so, playing regularly more on the basis of reputation than performance.
Here we remove that agony, and what we see is a Hall of Fame career of the first order: four batting crowns, a .359 lifetime average (second only to Ty Cobb’s), and more than 3,000 hits. And this is probably conservative, given that I’ve wound him down to his pedestrian 1929-30 career’s end. A fully healthy Sisler might well have been doing better than that, and lasted past age 37.
Year Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ 1915 22 81 274 28 78 10 2 3 29 7 27 .285 .307 .369 .676 106 1916 23 151 580 83 177 21 11 4 76 40 37 .305 .355 .400 .755 132 1917 24 135 539 60 190 30 9 2 52 30 19 .353 .390 .453 .843 161 1918 25 114 452 69 154 21 9 2 41 40 17 .341 .400 .440 .840 157 1919 26 132 511 96 180 31 15 10 83 27 20 .352 .390 .530 .920 154 1920 27 154 631 137 257 49 18 19 122 46 19 .407 .449 .632 1.081 181 1921 28 138 582 125 216 38 18 12 104 34 27 .371 .411 .560 .971 140 1922 29 142 586 134 246 42 18 8 105 49 14 .420 .467 .594 1.061 170 1923 30 142 591 132 239 42 18 11 107 44 18 .404 .446 .590 1.035 165 1924 31 144 596 126 236 39 16 8 99 45 17 .395 .438 .557 .995 149 1925 32 153 636 126 247 41 17 17 117 40 21 .388 .425 .585 1.010 149 1926 33 137 542 91 179 28 14 9 79 28 23 .331 .364 .485 .849 116 1927 34 141 592 114 212 36 15 10 102 31 23 .358 .389 .520 .909 132 1928 35 144 595 86 202 24 10 8 88 29 21 .339 .370 .452 .821 118 1929 36 154 629 67 205 40 8 2 79 33 17 .326 .363 .424 .787 98 1930 37 116 431 54 133 15 7 3 67 23 15 .309 .346 .397 .743 81 Career 2179 8766 1527 3150 507 205 128 1349 547 335 .359 .397 .508 .905 137
Molitor’s career shape is rather the reverse of Sisler’s, as he struggled in his 20s and peaked in his 30s. When most players are at their most durable, Molitor was constantly getting hurt (and apparently dealing with a cocaine problem, which likely didn’t help his conditioning). But past the age of 30 Molitor was remarkably durable (converting to near full-time DH beginning at age 34 no doubt helped), and seemed to go on and on, laying out line drives into his 40s.
Our healthy-through-his-20s Molitor puts up some monster career numbers. That total of 3,712 hits would be fourth on the all-time list.
Year Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ 1978 21 125 521 73 142 26 4 6 45 19 54 .273 .301 .372 .673 89 1979 22 140 584 88 188 27 16 9 62 48 48 .322 .372 .469 .841 126 1980 23 142 594 116 190 31 9 14 62 67 57 .320 .389 .476 .865 140 1981 24 112 456 87 135 22 3 10 42 47 57 .296 .362 .425 .788 132 1982 25 160 666 136 201 26 8 19 71 69 93 .302 .366 .450 .816 129 1983 26 156 646 120 199 31 11 16 66 71 66 .308 .376 .464 .840 139 1984 27 102 410 64 115 19 3 8 34 38 54 .280 .342 .402 .744 109 1985 28 152 598 90 187 33 6 11 75 67 71 .313 .382 .444 .826 126 1986 29 142 570 102 182 33 5 18 93 65 74 .319 .389 .488 .877 135 1987 30 118 465 114 164 41 5 16 75 69 67 .353 .438 .566 1.004 161 1988 31 154 609 115 190 34 6 13 60 71 54 .312 .384 .452 .836 133 1989 32 155 615 84 194 35 4 11 56 64 67 .315 .379 .439 .818 132 1990 33 139 566 94 176 31 8 13 59 59 60 .312 .377 .465 .842 136 1991 34 158 665 133 216 32 13 17 75 77 62 .325 .399 .489 .888 147 1992 35 158 609 89 195 36 7 12 89 73 66 .320 .389 .461 .850 140 1993 36 160 636 121 211 37 5 22 111 77 71 .332 .402 .509 .911 142 1994 37 115 454 86 155 30 4 14 75 55 48 .341 .410 .518 .928 138 1995 38 130 525 63 142 31 2 15 60 61 57 .270 .350 .423 .773 101 1996 39 161 660 99 225 41 8 9 113 56 72 .341 .390 .468 .858 115 1997 40 135 538 63 164 32 4 10 89 45 73 .305 .351 .435 .786 104 1998 41 126 502 75 141 29 5 4 69 45 41 .281 .335 .382 .717 87 Career 2939 11889 2012 3712 657 136 268 1481 1244 1312 .312 .377 .458 .835 127
The Zig-Zag Man
The position of catcher is brutally difficult, of course, and over the decades has made it difficult for many to sustain a consistent batting performance. But “Campy” took it to a whole ‘nother level.
Our Campanella manages to remain something resembling his top-drawer performance in those post-MVP seasons. An easy lay-up Hall of Famer becomes a slam-dunk Hall of Famer.
Year Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ 1948 26 83 279 32 72 11 3 9 45 36 45 .258 .345 .416 .761 103 1949 27 130 436 65 125 22 2 22 82 67 36 .287 .385 .498 .883 131 1950 28 126 437 70 123 19 3 31 89 55 51 .281 .364 .551 .915 135 1951 29 143 505 90 164 33 1 33 108 53 51 .325 .393 .590 .983 159 1952 30 136 487 82 145 26 1 28 103 55 55 .298 .369 .524 .893 144 1953 31 144 519 103 162 26 3 41 142 67 58 .312 .395 .611 1.006 155 1954 32 128 458 73 122 20 3 30 97 55 54 .266 .344 .520 .864 120 1955 33 123 446 81 142 20 1 32 107 56 41 .318 .395 .583 .978 153 1956 34 124 417 60 114 13 1 26 90 61 51 .272 .365 .495 .860 122 1957 35 103 330 31 80 9 0 13 62 34 50 .242 .316 .388 .704 81 Career 1239 4314 687 1249 199 18 265 924 539 492 .289 .368 .528 .896 133
A Powerful Pair
This fellow’s career had a great deal in common with that of someone we examined in our previous volume: Frank Howard. Each broke in with a Rookie of the Year performance, and each enjoyed an early-30s peak as an elite slugger, but for both the period in between was far less successful. Sievers’ struggles were even greater than Howard’s.
Following his excellent rookie season, Sievers had a bad sophomore slump in 1950. Before he could rebound from that, severe shoulder and arm injuries wiped out Sievers for two years, and he would never throw well again. (He’d been primarily a center fielder before he got hurt, but would be just a left fielder/first baseman from then on. He gradually worked his way back as a hitter, but it wouldn’t be until 1955, at the age of 28, that Sievers really picked up where he’d left off as a 22-year-old.
In our scenario, “Squirrel” avoids the worst of that unpleasantness, and turns in a 400-homer career.
Year Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ 1949 22 140 471 84 144 28 1 16 91 70 75 .306 .398 .471 .869 126 1950 23 133 452 68 117 25 4 17 83 61 65 .259 .348 .441 .788 98 1951 24 142 490 79 141 24 5 21 99 72 71 .288 .378 .481 .859 128 1952 25 148 530 83 139 24 5 27 101 87 77 .262 .365 .478 .843 130 1953 26 148 541 87 155 22 7 34 110 75 61 .287 .373 .537 .910 141 1954 27 147 532 80 141 22 4 32 105 67 70 .264 .346 .496 .842 134 1955 28 144 509 74 138 20 8 25 106 73 66 .271 .364 .489 .853 133 1956 29 152 550 92 139 27 2 29 95 100 88 .253 .370 .467 .837 121 1957 30 152 572 99 172 23 5 42 114 76 55 .301 .388 .579 .967 163 1958 31 148 550 85 162 18 1 39 108 53 63 .295 .357 .544 .901 147 1959 32 115 385 55 93 19 0 21 49 53 62 .242 .333 .455 .788 115 1960 33 127 444 87 131 22 0 28 93 74 69 .295 .396 .534 .930 151 1961 34 141 492 76 145 26 6 27 92 61 62 .295 .377 .537 .914 144 1962 35 144 477 61 125 19 5 21 80 56 80 .262 .346 .455 .801 117 1963 36 138 450 46 108 19 2 19 82 43 72 .240 .308 .418 .726 108 1964 37 82 178 12 32 4 1 8 27 22 34 .180 .271 .348 .619 73 1965 38 12 21 3 4 1 0 0 0 4 3 .190 .320 .238 .558 63 Career 2212 7643 1171 2085 342 54 404 1434 1045 1072 .273 .360 .490 .851 130
He was never a great player by any means, but at his best Johnson was darn good: He had a glove that was adequate at third base and pretty good at first, and a productive power bat. But he was all too often not at his best; a series of setbacks rendered Johnson’s career a sequence of fits and starts, leaving his peak years of 1965 and 1971 looking quite lonely.
The A’s acquired him from the Yankees as a ballyhooed prospect in mid-1961 (in a notorious trade we discussed here), and struggled enormously. Johnson then spent most of 1962 in the military, and landed back in the minors for all of 1963.
But the Reds picked him up, and in 1964 Johnson hit his way into a regular job, and then broke through as a star in ’65, leading the majors in RBIs. For the next few years he would struggle with various nagging hurts, before gradually getting it back together with the Phillies and re-establishing himself as a superior hitter. Then a serious leg injury ruined his 1972 season, following which he played out the string riding a hot streak/ghastly slump roller coaster.
In our version, with some durability and consistency invoked, we see a solidly impressive career.
Year Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ 1960 21 6 4 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .750 1.250 243 1961 22 107 346 40 80 14 3 11 53 21 61 .231 .275 .388 .663 76 1962 23 134 413 52 106 20 3 16 64 32 86 .256 .309 .439 .748 97 1963 24 141 491 69 130 25 4 23 80 38 93 .265 .318 .466 .784 120 1964 25 140 477 63 130 24 4 21 79 37 98 .273 .326 .472 .798 119 1965 26 159 616 92 177 30 7 32 130 52 97 .287 .340 .515 .855 131 1966 27 151 561 84 154 28 5 28 106 46 92 .274 .328 .491 .819 117 1967 28 134 489 66 129 24 4 23 92 37 101 .264 .316 .468 .784 113 1968 29 140 445 51 109 18 2 18 65 46 96 .245 .315 .416 .731 119 1969 30 148 529 63 138 24 2 26 88 66 129 .260 .342 .458 .800 126 1970 31 159 578 70 151 29 2 31 94 72 139 .260 .342 .473 .815 120 1971 32 158 582 74 154 29 0 34 95 72 146 .265 .347 .490 .837 135 1972 33 132 437 52 108 16 1 21 71 54 114 .246 .329 .432 .761 113 1973 34 143 500 64 120 16 2 20 86 64 126 .240 .326 .400 .726 108 1974 35 135 472 54 105 15 2 17 68 49 109 .222 .295 .371 .667 94 1975 36 151 565 68 135 25 1 19 75 50 117 .239 .300 .388 .688 93 1976 37 15 38 3 5 1 1 0 0 5 11 .132 .233 .211 .444 25 Career 2151 7542 963 1930 338 42 339 1244 740 1614 .256 .322 .447 .769 113
A Couple of Giant Prodigies
Through 1964, the “Baby Bull” was a remarkably consistent hitter; following his 1965 knee surgery, he was all over the place. Here we imagine his early knee trouble not being nearly as severe, and thus even with his mid-30s breakdown it’s quite a career.
Cepeda’s batting stroke was an odd combination of awkwardness and grace: he had the smoothest hitch you’ll ever see. It would take him a moment to get all the parts moving, but then, look out. As a result he could be jammed, and even when hitting the ball well he wasn’t much of a pull hitter. Still, Cepeda delivered screeching liners up the middle, and his capacity for soaring power to right-center and even straightaway right field was extraordinary for a right-handed hitter.
Year Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ 1958 20 148 603 88 188 38 4 25 96 29 84 .312 .342 .512 .854 125 1959 21 151 605 92 192 35 4 27 105 33 100 .317 .355 .522 .877 133 1960 22 151 569 81 169 36 3 24 96 34 91 .297 .343 .497 .840 133 1961 23 152 585 105 182 28 4 46 142 39 91 .311 .362 .609 .971 157 1962 24 162 625 105 191 26 1 35 114 37 97 .306 .347 .518 .865 132 1963 25 156 579 100 183 33 4 34 97 37 70 .316 .366 .563 .929 165 1964 26 142 529 75 161 27 2 31 97 43 83 .304 .361 .539 .900 148 1965 27 149 556 88 174 31 2 31 100 44 76 .313 .364 .546 .910 150 1966 28 145 531 79 165 30 1 25 94 48 79 .311 .368 .513 .880 141 1967 29 151 563 91 183 37 0 25 111 62 75 .325 .399 .524 .923 164 1968 30 152 577 83 168 32 1 25 98 51 82 .292 .349 .480 .829 149 1969 31 151 568 84 168 33 1 27 103 55 75 .295 .357 .498 .855 138 1970 32 148 567 87 173 33 0 34 111 47 75 .305 .365 .543 .908 135 1971 33 71 250 31 69 10 1 14 44 22 29 .276 .330 .492 .822 125 1972 34 31 87 6 25 3 0 4 9 7 17 .287 .340 .460 .800 119 1973 35 142 550 51 159 25 0 20 86 50 81 .289 .350 .444 .794 118 1974 36 33 107 3 23 5 0 1 18 9 16 .215 .282 .290 .572 61 Career 2235 8450 1249 2573 462 27 428 1521 646 1222 .305 .354 .518 .872 139
While Cepeda resides among the lower tier of Hall of Famers, McCovey’s Cooperstown status is of the comfortable, no-question-about-it sort. This is remarkable, given how many things went wrong for “Stretch.”
As we examined here, McCovey was, as Bill James described it, “probably the only truly great player to have been platooned for several years at the start of his career.” The Giants exhibited staggering inability to recognize just what kind of talent they had in their hands, and it wasn’t until 1963, McCovey’s fifth big league season, that he finally became a full-season regular.
The year after that, at 26, McCovey suddenly encountered a dreadful season-long slump. Its primary cause was finally determined to be chronically sore feet exacerbated by ill-fitting spiked shoes; the painfully shy McCovey had suffered in silence for months, and by the time he spoke up and was provided with new shoes, his season was irretrievably ruined.
The following year he re-emerged as a first-tier star, but in 1967 McCovey encountered his first bout with knee trouble. The deterioration was staved off for a couple of years, but in 1971 he had mid-season knee surgery and was rendered shockingly immobile. For the rest of his career he was undoubtedly one of the slowest baserunners in major league history. As if this weren’t enough, in early 1972 McCovey suffered a badly broken arm, which ruined that season for him.
Yet he persevered, coming back with highly productive seasons in 1973, ’74, and ’75, despite hobbling in chronic arthritic-knee pain. Then in 1976, at the age of 38, McCovey simply didn’t hit all year long, and it was obvious that he’d reached the end of the line. Obvious, that is, to everyone except McCovey himself, who talked the Giants into giving him a spring training chance in 1977. Willie Mac proceeded to win the Comeback Player of the Year Award, and eventually surpass 500 homers.
Our version of McCovey, with just an ordinary progression between his high spots, reaches 618 home runs, despite just seven seasons of as many as 500 at-bats. This strong, quiet, decent, extremely hard-working fellow could really, really hit.
Year Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ 1959 21 54 192 35 68 9 5 13 38 22 35 .354 .421 .656 1.077 185 1960 22 148 506 80 138 25 7 28 94 73 98 .273 .365 .517 .882 145 1961 23 149 547 94 147 21 5 33 97 70 99 .270 .352 .507 .859 129 1962 24 153 557 100 157 18 4 42 109 62 100 .283 .355 .553 .908 142 1963 25 152 564 103 158 19 5 44 102 50 119 .280 .339 .566 .904 157 1964 26 147 489 84 129 17 3 34 83 66 103 .264 .352 .518 .869 140 1965 27 160 540 96 149 17 4 39 92 88 118 .276 .377 .539 .916 152 1966 28 150 502 96 148 26 6 36 95 76 100 .295 .388 .586 .973 163 1967 29 135 456 79 126 17 4 31 91 71 110 .276 .374 .535 .909 159 1968 30 153 502 81 147 16 4 36 105 72 71 .293 .382 .556 .937 180 1969 31 149 491 101 157 26 2 45 126 121 66 .320 .454 .656 1.110 211 1970 32 152 495 98 143 39 2 39 126 137 75 .289 .443 .612 1.055 182 1971 33 129 412 72 117 26 1 29 98 101 66 .284 .424 .559 .984 180 1972 34 105 325 42 83 12 1 20 60 69 60 .255 .386 .485 .871 146 1973 35 130 383 52 102 14 3 29 83 105 78 .266 .424 .546 .970 163 1974 36 128 344 53 87 19 1 22 63 96 76 .253 .416 .506 .922 162 1975 37 122 413 43 104 17 0 23 68 57 80 .252 .343 .460 .803 128 1976 38 115 372 39 95 16 0 19 63 49 76 .254 .342 .452 .794 133 1977 39 141 478 54 134 21 0 28 86 67 106 .280 .369 .500 .869 131 1978 40 108 351 32 80 19 2 12 64 36 57 .228 .300 .396 .696 97 1979 41 117 353 34 88 9 0 15 57 36 70 .249 .319 .402 .721 102 1980 42 48 113 8 23 8 0 1 16 13 23 .204 .286 .301 .587 66 Career 2846 9385 1476 2581 410 59 618 1816 1537 1786 .275 .377 .529 .906 152
The Flying Fickle Finger of Freddy’s Fate
A fan “once happened to be sitting next to an octegenarian at Fenway Park, and in the course of a few innings learned that the gentleman had been sitting there watching the Red Sox since the time of Joe Wood. He asked the man who was the greatest player he ever saw, and the man said without hesitation, ‘Fred Lynn.’ Fred Lynn? Not Ruth? Not Speaker? Not Teddy? ‘Fred Lynn. Don’t think much of him now, but for a few years there he was the best.'”
He was rather fragile from the get-go, so there’s no way our version here can be Mr. Durable. As a result the adjusted career stats don’t really look Hall of Fame-worthy, although when considered in combination with Lynn’s early-career center field defense, he sure would deserve serious consideration. What an amazing talent.
Year Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ 1974 22 15 43 5 18 2 2 2 10 6 6 .419 .490 .698 1.188 230 1975 23 145 528 103 175 47 7 21 105 62 90 .331 .401 .566 .967 162 1976 24 141 521 94 170 42 7 17 92 57 82 .326 .393 .535 .927 158 1977 25 140 519 100 160 39 4 26 101 65 77 .309 .386 .552 .938 141 1978 26 148 534 102 172 39 2 33 109 80 69 .321 .409 .588 .998 166 1979 27 147 531 116 177 42 1 39 122 82 79 .333 .423 .637 1.060 176 1980 28 135 493 100 160 39 2 30 102 74 66 .324 .413 .593 1.006 167 1981 29 93 327 53 92 22 1 11 51 44 44 .282 .367 .458 .825 137 1982 30 138 472 89 141 38 1 21 86 58 72 .299 .374 .517 .891 143 1983 31 133 475 86 144 33 2 27 93 64 77 .303 .387 .551 .937 157 1984 32 134 482 89 144 28 2 28 89 71 78 .298 .388 .540 .929 156 1985 33 125 439 72 124 21 1 22 74 55 77 .283 .363 .488 .851 134 1986 34 112 397 67 114 13 1 23 67 53 59 .287 .371 .499 .870 136 1987 35 111 396 49 100 24 0 23 60 39 72 .253 .320 .487 .807 113 1988 36 114 391 46 96 14 1 25 56 33 82 .246 .302 .478 .780 118 1989 37 117 353 44 85 11 1 11 46 47 71 .241 .328 .371 .699 99 1990 38 90 196 18 47 3 1 6 23 22 44 .240 .315 .357 .672 85 Career 2036 7096 1233 2119 457 36 366 1285 912 1146 .299 .378 .528 .907 146
References & Resources
Methodology
Everyone’s actual career includes a certain degree of year-to-year variation, and I wanted even these smoothed-out versions to reflect some of that. So instead of strict formality, I allowed myself a bit of artistic license. However, I did require myself to stick to some basic rules:
– I couldn’t just make stuff up; all adjusted stats had to start with the particular player’s actual stat lines.
– In most cases, the stats from the season being adjusted were included (even if in a minor weighting) in the adjusted line, to give the adjusted line some of the flavor of that actual season’s performance.
– No player’s career could start earlier than it did, or end later than it did.
– No adjusted season could surpass the player’s actual peak season(s); the adjusted seasons act as a bridge to and from peaks, not a new peak.
I’ve endeavored to create a new version of each player’s career that is idealized, but in a plausible manner. The intended effect is to enhance the actual career while not overwhelming it, to create an easily recognizable version of the actual career that is, to a reasonable degree, the best it might have been.
Feel free to email me with any questions about the precise formulae used for any particular player.
The quote regarding Fred Lynn is from The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, New York: Villard Books, 1985, page 390.