Finding Impactful Rookie Hitters

The great work Jeff Zimmerman has done with aging curves has consistently showing that players are coming up more developed and ready to perform. The game’s best player was an absolute monster at age-20, and of course, Mike Trout hasn’t slowed down since that brilliant rookie campaign. Last year saw 12 of the top 30 WAR batting leaders check in at 25 years of age and younger, including Aaron Judge, American League Rookie of the Year and runner-up in the MVP voting. Just 15 years ago, there were only six in the top 30. Rookie call-ups can be a huge part of fantasy baseball.

Landing a key rookie for several months of the season can be the difference between winning and losing. Anecdotally it seems rookies are more accepted as true draft assets than ever before, as teams are willing to stash someone who is expected to be up within the first month or so of the season. I wanted to further examine the path of rookies. Has the traditional path of touching every level on the way up held true? How many of the best rookies are on the Opening Day rosters? I was surprised to learn that there aren’t as many impact rookies as I expected in a given year, but the number is going up.

Using a threshold of 200+ plate appearances with at least a 100 OPS+, we saw 20 or more “impactful” hitters in a season just once from 2003-2014, with an average of 14 per season. However, each of the last three years has seen more than 20, and averaged 26. We’re going to focus on hitters in this piece, but for reference I’ll note that pitching has seen a more gradual uptick in the same 15-year period.

Using 50+ innings (at least 60 percent as starter) of at least 100 ERA+ pitching shows a high of 18 in both 2006 and 2015, but the 2003-2011 period was more volatile with a low of four and an average of 11.  We’ve had at least 14 in each of the last six years, averaging 15. Assessing the pitching would take a lot more nuance than we have time for today as I don’t believe composite ERA measures do them justice. It was most effective for a quick-and-dirty look. With that, we turn back to the hitters.

Looking at our pool of 77 qualified batters since 2015, the first number that stood out was the count of those who hit the majors from Double-A or lower: one (Miguel Sano). I was under the impression that more players were coming directly from Double-A and finding some success. Under the not-so-scientific 200+ PA of 100 or better OPS+, only Sano skipped Triple-A. Surely if it was as prevalent as I wrongly believed, at least another few players would have reached that generous threshold for impact. A hefty 61 percent spent time in Triple-A before getting the call. Sometimes they are just passing through (20 or fewer games), but the majority spent substantial time there. The remaining 38 percent make the Opening Day roster.

I also made note of how many of these impact rookies were on industry prospect lists the season before their debut. The Opening Day roster rookies were on Top 100 lists at only a 38 percent clip. This seems to track logically, too, as teams are more willing to break camp with an organization level prospect while sending down their top guys for service time concerns. Those debuting in-season were essentially a coin flip to be on a list with a 46 percent mark. That does leave a decent population of impact rookies available for discovery, especially in leagues less prospect-focused. Think the Rhys Hoskins, Ryon Healy and Randal Grichuk types.

Let’s take a closer look at 28 batting rookies with a shot to make a 2018 impact. We’ll start with the National League.

National League

Ronald Acuna, OF, Age-20, Atlanta Braves
The uber-prospect topping virtually every industry list will be sent down for at least a couple weeks to ensure an extra year of service time, but he’s slated for a substantial role for the Braves and will be drafted in every league.

Ryan McMahon, 1B, Age-23 Colorado Rockies
Tracking for a roster spot out of camp, the 23-year-old first baseman has been coveted this draft season and the price will only soar further as he gets closer to Opening Day with a starting gig in hand. The Coors Field boost gives him a nice margin for error as he traverses his first six-month grind in the majors.

Victor Robles, OF, Age-21, Washington Nationals
Don’t let the lack of a clear path to playing time knock Robles off your radar. The 21-year old outfielder skipped Triple-A to make his debut last year and capped his season with a trip to the Arizona Fall League, so he will likely be up the moment an outfield spot opens. Adam Eaton is still returning from a torn ACL and has yet to play in a major league spring training game. Meanwhile, Michael Taylor has been nursing a side injury. Remember, Cody Bellinger didn’t have a spot to play at the beginning of last year, either.

Scott Kingery, IF, Age-24, Philadelphia Phillies
Another guy who seems blocked at the moment, such that he’s bouncing around the field defensively to be ready should anything open up. He had a filthy 26 homer/29 stolen base season across Double- and Triple-A last year. The speed has always been there, but that was a massive power surge and has fantasy folks drooling. Maikel Franco won’t get a whole season if he’s tracking toward another 76 wRC+ season and our next guy on the list doesn’t have any guarantees.

J.P. Crawford, 3B/SS, Age-23, Philadelphia Phillies
He will open the season with the shortstop job and qualifies at third base based on his major league time last year. His defense will extend the audition out front, but his offense has stagnated a bit in the upper minors.

Colin Moran, CI/OF, Age-25, Pittsburgh Pirates
A swing change unlocked some power in 2017 and now a trade opens up a full-time role for the former No. 6 overall draft pick from 2013.

Nick Senzel, 3B…SS?, Age-23 Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are so interested in getting this bat up to the majors that they’re working him at shortstop despite below-average fielding. Eugenio Suarez has emerged with back-to-back strong seasons and looks set at third, but Jose Peraza could yield the shortstop job in relatively short order. I do wonder if it’d be smarter to move Suarez back to short (where’s played 180 big league games) and leave Senzel at third. Either way, this is a premium bat and Senzel is instantly an all-formats play the second he reaches the majors.

Lewis Brinson, OF, Age-24, Miami Marlins
Like Moran, Brinson was traded to a spot where he now has a great path to playing time. He’s no guarantee to start the season with the penny-pinching Marlins. That’s a little unfair to the Marlins because any team would be wise to maximize their years with a player and it’d actually be the smartest path for them to ensure that extra year with Brinson given that they’re going nowhere in 2018. He’s been essentially a 20 HR/20 SB guy per 500 PA in the minors and could post a 15/15 season even if he’s left down until early-May.

Harrison Bader, OF, Age-24, St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals lineup is locked in as long as health allows, but Bader could win a fourth outfield spot out of camp. He’s probably better served to get everyday at-bats in Triple-A, though. He has stolen 20 bases per 600 PA, but with just a 61 percent success rate, meaning he’s likely to face a yellow light.

Jesse Winker, OF, Age-24, Cincinnati Reds
Winker could find his way up before Senzel and maybe even secure a starting role in spring training, but I’m not sure the bat is quite as good. He’s had fantastic plate skills with a 14 percent walk rate against just a 16 percent strikeout rate in 2,438 minor league plate appearances. There is a fair question about what comes with the strong OBP, though. He managed just a .151 ISO in the minors and scouting reports have never suggested standout power or speed. He did pop seven homers with a .231 ISO in a short 137- PA call-up

Luis Urias, 2B, Age-21, San Diego Padres
He cut a real Jose Ramirez figure when I saw him at the Arizona Fall League. This season will be his first experience with Triple-A and there’s no incentive to rush him in San Diego, so look for a summer call-up if at all.

Austin Meadows, OF, Age-23 Pittsburgh Pirates
Trading Andrew McCutchen didn’t end up yielding space for Meadows; the Pirates later traded for Corey Dickerson, once again filling the outfield. Meadows is coming off a terrible 2017 so he’ll look to get on track again in Triple-A and bide his time for a chance. Health has been a detriment the last two years with just 168 total games played in 2016-17.

Brian Anderson, 3B, Age-25, Miami Marlins
Anderson could be one of those sneaky rookies who doesn’t have any Top 100 hype, but breaks camp and makes good on his opportunity through volume. If the pop he found in the minors last year is real, then he’s a credible 25-homer threat.

Austin Riley, 3B, Age-21, Atlanta Braves
His bat may force the issue sooner than expected, especially if his power jumps another level. This is another case where the team incentive isn’t necessarily in place early on, but circumstances change rapidly once the season starts and Riley will be given heavy consideration if he rakes at Triple-A.

American League

Dustin Fowler, OF, Age-23, Oakland Athletics
Remember him? He smashed his knee (ruptured patella tendon) on a defensive play before even batting in his debut, but he’s back and has a beat on the starting center fielder gig in Oakland. Speed is the carrying tool and could make him an instant fantasy star, even if the bat lags.

Gleyber Torres, IF, Age-21, New York Yankees
Coming off Tommy John surgery, it was unlikely that he’d secure a starting job in the spring. Then the Yankees acquired Brandon Drury and signed Neil Walker, making his demotion a certainty. There’s no rush at his age and some extra seasoning in Triple-A can’t hurt.

Miguel Andujar, 3B, Age-23, New York Yankees
Andujar was pushed to the minors by the same roadblocks as Torres, but he’s a bit more advanced and could get the call quicker. Torres has the deeper set of tools, but if it’s a pure volume play, then Andujar’s age advantage could open the playing time more quickly if third base opens up.

Willie Calhoun, OF/DH, Age-23, Texas Rangers
Calhoun felt like a surprising send-down, since the bat looks ready after a demolition of the PCL last year, but Scott Lucas of the Newberg Report shows why it might make sense to leave him in Triple-A for another month. His lack of defensive prowess also gives him something very real to work on and the Rangers fancy themselves contenders on some level so they’d rather not have a developing outfielder in the big leagues possibly costing the team runs.

Franklin Barreto, SS, Age-22, Oakland Athletics
The linchpin of the Josh Donaldson deal could get his first big opportunity in 2018 and relatively soon. He had a rough 25-game debut last year (58 wRC+), but was coming off a 15 homer/15 steal/.290 average season in Triple-A. Curbing the swing-and-miss will be his chief focus in the minors to start the season.

Kyle Tucker, OF, Age-21, Houston Astros
The injury to Yulieski Gurriel fostered some hope of a surprise roster spot, but it’s just too hard to truly envision, especially with someone like Derek Fisher more than capable of filling in and Tucker having peaked at Double-A last year.

Michael Chavis, 1B, Age-22, Boston Red Sox
He showed breakout power in a season at High- and Double-A followed by a solid showing in the AFL. Hanley Ramirez and Mitch Moreland are both on the other side of 30 and not exactly paragons of health, so keep an eye on Chavis at Triple-A.

Eloy Jimenez, OF, Age-21, Chicago White Sox
He’s played all of 18 games at Double-A and yet he could probably mount a tremendous case to break camp if the White Sox had any designs on competing in 2018. There’s a chance he so overpowers the minors again that he finagles a call up before September. Let’s hope for that because his talent is incredible.

Austin Hays, OF, Age-22, Baltimore Orioles
The signing of Colby Rasmus could curb any chance of Hays breaking camp with the team, especially as he nurses a back injury and struggles through the Grapefruit League. He’ll be up as soon as the Orioles have a spot for him.

Anthony Alford, OF, Age-23, Toronto Blue Jays
Teoscar Hernandez is no longer a prospect by rookie rules, but he’s still a young player who could make a big impact. He’s likely up first if something happens in the Jays outfield. They brought in Randal Grichuk and Curtis Granderson, pushing Hernandez and Alford into reinforcement roles.

Jake Bauers, 1B, Age-22, Tampa Bay Rays
He doesn’t have the power of a traditional first baseman (.136 minor league ISO), but he has stolen 30 bases with a 77 percent success rate the last two years and could be a rare speed asset at the position.

Willy Adames, SS, Age-22, Tampa Bay Rays
His defense gives him that “better real life player” tag, which curbs his fantasy upside, but he’s also been young for every level and likely has untapped potential throughout his batting profile. He should get a chance at some point in 2018.

Francisco Mejia, DH, Age-22, Cleveland Indians
He doesn’t qualify at catcher in most leagues right now and his future behind the dish is up for debate. He’s been working in the outfield this spring and will likely play anywhere but catcher at Triple-A to start the season.

Chance Sisco, C, Age-23, Baltimore Orioles
I generally avoid rookie catchers as they are often tasked with eschewing hitting in favor of defense, or at least, not having to worry about any struggles they may have at the dish as long as the defense is there. Sisco’s bat also wasn’t good enough in the minors to where even a muted version would still be fantasy viable. The power was scant (.115 ISO), so his best bet at instant impact would be via batting average.

There are no fixed rules about where rookies will come from these days, but your best bet is still to mine the Triple-A pool of prospects – both Top 100-caliber and org level guys – for highest impact within a given season. Playing time is the key driver unless someone goes bananas like Hoskins or Matt Olson did in 2017, so keep an eye on all the paths your favorite prospects can take to the majors. Don’t assume someone is blocked, especially once his talent surpasses the incumbents. There’s no longer time to wait for stats to stabilize, either, so be ready to act when prospects start getting called up.