Head-to-head top 300: 1-50
To be fair to everyone reading here at The Hardball Times, I must say that these rankings and projections are strictly the opinion of myself. They are not based on any sort of scientific, sabermetric formulas. If you want a system rivaled by few, you really should check out the THT Forecasts. In my biased opinion, you won’t find a better projection engine, especially dealing with minor leaguers. My rankings are, however, a product of countless hours pouring over data ranges, my own exhausted opinion, and several other products and analysis.
I tried to restrict this rankings list to the head-to-head, “big board” variety. Jeffrey Gross did a good job at giving you positional rankings for roto leagues that could be referenced for H2H just as easily. In my compilation, I really wanted to focus on players that are young and strong who have large talent ceilings.
Positional scarcity, of course, played a role, but it was by no means a determining factor. Points-based leaguers will see some of your favorites intermingled, but I didn’t want to ignore the 5X5 gamers. If anything, these rankings are a combination of both.
Another item I chose not to address is dollar values. THT Forecasts can do an amazing job of taking your league’s settings and giving you base-level prices for all players. To even try to compete with that wouldn’t be fair to you, the reader, and it would entail a lot more work for me.
My advice in regards to auction drafting is to always gauge the room and adapt to the draft. Many times this can only be truly achieved through practice. Just don’t get caught up in the eBay effect, always be looking for value, go hard after the guys you like, and never let the room know whom you like.
Lastly, use these rankings wisely. As Andrew Lang said, “An unsophisticated forecaster uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp posts—for support rather than for illumination.”
Name R HR RBI SB AVG W K SV ERA WHIP 1. Albert Pujols 113 41 120 9 0.320 2. Miguel Cabrera 102 35 118 2 0.314 3. Hanley Ramirez 118 29 101 24 0.330 4. Ryan Braun 115 36 130 18 0.318 5. Joey Votto 100 40 110 9 0.308 6. David Wright 112 34 124 17 0.310 7. Carlos Gonzalez 120 30 107 33 0.298 8. Evan Longoria 108 28 115 14 0.296 9. Josh Hamilton 109 38 127 5 0.318 10. Alex Rodriguez 98 36 120 10 0.299 11. Troy Tulowitzki 97 25 97 23 0.303 12. Carl Crawford 106 16 82 40 0.305 13. Prince Fielder 100 43 138 0 0.290 14. Chase Utley 110 27 97 14 0.293 15. Roy Halladay 22 201 0 2.50 1.05 16. Robinson Cano 95 26 101 4 0.306 17. Mark Teixeira 100 35 111 2 0.286 18. Adrian Gonzalez 85 35 119 0 0.280 19. Dustin Pedroia 121 19 70 24 0.308 20. Ryan Howard 91 39 126 3 0.270 21. Ryan Zimmerman 84 28 100 3 0.310 22. Joe Mauer 95 17 91 2 0.323 23. Matt Holliday 110 29 100 9 0.309 24. Jason Heyward 102 29 98 19 0.301 25. Andre Ethier 92 34 106 2 0.286 26. Tim Lincecum 20 235 0 2.99 1.17 27. Jose Bautista 99 40 105 9 0.270 28. Josh Johnson 15 197 0 2.68 1.19 29. Kevin Youkilis 90 27 83 8 0.304 30. Nelson Cruz 80 34 90 14 0.290 31. Jon Lester 18 236 0 3.15 1.21 32. Jose Reyes 84 13 62 34 0.286 33. Justin Upton 83 25 80 24 0.283 34. Felix Hernandez 16 220 0 2.95 1.17 35. Shin-Soo Choo 80 20 89 20 0.300 36. Jayson Werth 97 30 90 16 0.277 37. Matt Kemp 90 29 91 17 0.279 38. Justin Morneau 78 25 102 0 0.300 39. Dan Uggla 90 32 95 3 0.278 40. Kendry Morales 86 30 101 1 0.299 41. Brian McCann 70 26 94 0 0.286 42. Buster Posey 80 21 89 1 0.310 43. Cliff Lee 15 180 0 3.20 1.09 44. Billy Butler 80 20 90 0 0.311 45. Zack Greinke 16 200 0 3.49 1.19 46. Adam Dunn 82 40 100 0 0.267 47. Tommy Hanson 17 197 0 3.05 1.14 48. Jay Bruce 80 31 85 6 0.280 49. Andrew McCutchen 90 15 40 31 0.288 50. Jacoby Ellsbury 105 8 53 59 0.293
For my projections and the actual excel file, click this link below.
Points of interest (discord):
Miguel Cabrera: I’m not ready to cast judgment on Miggy yet. He’s dealt with adversity before and never let it really affect his on-field performance. Substance abuse can be a serious and lingering problem, and even Cabrera must recognize that there are more important things than baseball. All reports are indicating he has taken the steps needed to adequately recover.
I could see how analysts and your fellow draftees would argue that he should slide into the second round. I could see that my leaving him ranked as the No. 2 player in fantasy will be seen as wreckless with all this new information. Maybe it’s my faith in second chances or my belief that he’s the second-best hitter in the game (possibly the best), but I can’t seem to shake him from the top two, although a shaky spring and another incident would do much to destroy my confidence in him. He is a risk now and there’s no getting around that.
Ryan Braun: My Braun love runs deep. I think he’s done nothing but prove himself his entire career. 2011 could really be his coming out party where he takes his seat alongside Pujols as a superstar of MLB. His “off” season last year was yet again stellar. Barring injury, he is my preseason NL MVP. Write that down.
Robinson Cano: I figure this will be my most controversial ranking of the Top 50. Cano is an amazing player, and his last two years have been awesome. He hit right around .320 with 25-plus homers each of those seasons. He scores runs and drives them in, and he does all this from the middle infield. What’s not to love?
My opinion is his second half is more of a real assessment of his skill set. Don’t get me wrong, that first half was epic, but his “fade” in the later months is much more of what I see for Cano. If that is truly the case, he should put up numbers near the projection and must be considered an early- to mid-second rounder, not the first rounder he’ll most likely be labeled.
Jon Lester: Lester is as mature a 27-year-old pitcher as there is in baseball. He has made it through some incredible trials and has become the most dominant lefty that will toe the mound in 2011. He’s close to putting it all together.
A slight decrease in his WHIP could set off a chain of events that will have us calling him the Cy Young winner by season’s end. The Red Sox’s success could give Lester a great opportunity at 20 wins, as well.
Felix Hernandez: Felix, on the other hand, graced his fantasy owners with a historical second-half run that culminated in the 2010 AL Cy Young award. I don’t dislike King Felix. He is deserving of the success afforded him.
I just can’t get over how bad the Mariners could be in 2011, and I don’t care who you are—that will negatively affect a pitcher eventually. Hernandez has pitched a lion’s share of innings for a 24 year old. He’ll actually profile better as a points-based pitcher than a normal H2H guy. I believe he’ll be good in 2011, but not as good as Lester, Josh Johnson, Tim Lincecum or Roy Halladay.
Jayson Werth over Matt Kemp: Read my Kemp distrust in the All-Aversion All Stars: Part II article. I believe that having him ranked as high as I do (37th) despite my hatred is directly related to his overall talent level. Even though I don’t think he’ll do well, I understand that the skills he possesses could manifest themselves once more. The choice will be his to make.
I like Werth because he’s safe. Experts who try to downplay his 2010 season haven’t done their due diligence to the statistics. If he can hit around .280 with 30 HR and 15-plus SB, he would be an absolute steal at the 36th pick. Don’t be afraid to stand alone. Live, die, and draft by that mantra.
Tommy Hanson: In his second full season, it is time for Hanson to step up and join the elite fantasy starters. He pitched ridiculously well in the second half of 2010 with a line of 75 strikeouts in 106 innings, coupled with a 2.55 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. I don’t think his strikeouts-per-nine innings (K/9) ratio is something you should get hung up on. If anything, his success in the K/9 department on the minor league level should point to a chance at bettering his numbers in 2011. With some added dominance, Hanson could be scary good.
Andrew McCutchen: McCutchen is a poor man’s Carl Crawford, and he is nowhere near his professional peak. So to value him this low isn’t really fair to how good he can and will be in 2011. The reason he has fallen on my big board is due in large part to the depth at the outfield position.
Jacoby Ellsbury: Ellsbury is back and leading off atop the best offensive lineup in the game, he has speed blessed by God, and he works hard at his craft and understands his role. If he is healthy, he shouldn’t be too far off his 2009 stat levels. I would adjust his batting average down a bit, and he might need some time to rev his engine. The steals will come in bunches, and he could wiggle into the Top 15 overall players by season’s end.
Overall lack of starting pitchers: I can’t draft pitching before the third round. Maybe it’s against my religion or something. Whether that’s a weakness or not, I haven’t yet decided. So my rankings throughout the 300 will be hitter skewed. Forgive me for letting my personal draft strategies influence my rankings.
As always I welcome the comments below, and 51-100 will be up next Monday.
I can think of another 50 guys I’d take over Ellsbury.
And you would wish you hadn’t on 45 of those.
There appears to be an error on your list, as Tulo isn’t in the top-10. Please fix and repost.
Troy needs to show me some consistency to get in my H2H Top 10. He’s also an injury risk. I could humor you and call Arod 10 and Tulow 10a if it will keep me from having to repost my article.
Dudes who miss time due to getting hit in the wrist with a fastball are not an “injury risk,” though I will grant you he isn’t the ironman that Reyes or Rollins is.
And consistency? Is there any doubt that Tulo (provided his fragile body is not plunked again) is good for at least 100-30-100-15-.300 at short? I guess the unparalleled, consistent track record of CarGo, Wright, and Hamilton were too much to ignore.
If Tulowitzki isn’t in your top-10 this season, you have to review your ranking criteria and start over.
If Tulowitzki isn’t in your top-10 this season, you have to review your ranking criteria and start over.
It’s not everyday that a THT reader so succintly articulates the inverse of the scientific method. Seriously though, you said he should be good for 100/30/100/15/.300 and Ben has him pegged at 97/25/97/23/.303, so where’s the source of the angst? That’s like the same projection.
Now, I love Tulo but I do have to take issue with your contention that there’s no doubt he’s in for the season you predict, mainly because he’s never had such a season before. He was pretty close in 2007 and certainly had the pace to do it last year, but he was also the beneficiary of one of the hottest months any hitter has ever had. Frankly, if Vegas was giving even odds on whether Tulo would hit your baseline projection, I think just about every sharp in town would bet the under, and that’s no knock on Tulo. I believe that slash line was only achieved by CarGo and Votto last season.
Meanwhile, David Wright, whose consistency you question, is 3 homers short of averaging that baseline as his career per 162. Minus 2009, not many have been as consistly elite and balanced as Wright. Meanwhile, Tulo has missed more games in the past 3 seasons than Wright has in his entire career.
Now, I’m not saying you shold draft Wright over Tulo. And, it’s fair to say that Tulo’s star may still be on the rise. But, to act as if 11th is some absurd ranking, is kind of rash.
@Dan- Not an excuse, but I wrote the rankings before the Utley tendonitis news. Although the ranking of Utley would be the only item I would change.
I know you love the Lester, and you are right to do so.
I have an affinity for Josh Hamilton. I think the only reason you would rank Josh as low as I did is because of the injuries. His bat is the best in baseball now, and I don’t think there’s many who would debate that. I’m not going to guess at how much playing time he will or won’t have. I do know that Josh will rake if he’s healthy.
@Baltimoron- I think Derek covered all the points. The only minor difference is that I would tell you to definitely take David Wright over Tulow (although my buddy seems to think I have inflated my David Wright projections).
Not a bad list. Consistency comes as a premium, so it’s not a big shock to see a lot of differences between a roto list of rankings
Ben –
I’m sure you know this caveat, but despite my being an avowed “value guy” one thing practice has taught me is that, especially in shallower drafts, you can get in trouble by not overpaying if need be to get a couple studs and maximize at least a few slots, since replacement value is high enough that a team full of mid-tier players—however better than what you got them for—is almost impossible to win with.
Also, you already know who I agree with, but I’m also in line with what underlies your Lester and Felix assessments: taking “wins are unpredictable so don’t rank based on projections of them” as dogma ignores reasonably predictable cases such as these.
Finally, McCuthchen is both very good but also not a particularly great value in the drafts I’ve done so far.
Other observations: I’d close the [granted not-so-far] gap between Longo and Crawford, at least in the bizzaro world of fantasy where steals count for so much, and wouldn’t be surprised if he had more runs. But whatever, it could easily be the case that he isn’t worth as much, so a kind of unimportant comment.
However, I do have a significant difference of opinion insofar as I think Holliday is much more likely to put up numbers close-ish to Braun than not. Not that they are at all equal, but more so methinks…
Finally, I’m scared to use an early pick on Morneau, even if it might more-than-pay off.
Oh, and had no idea Choo hits far fewer dingers than Cruz. I’ll have to look into that…
As ever, strong stuff, and I think a number of the against-the-grain picks would still be applicable to roto.
-Will
Show me a mock draft, anywhere, where Tulo doesn’t go in the top 10. I’d wager, more times than not, he’s in the top 5. You could start with this one:
http://www.mockdraftcentral.com/draft_grid.jsp?id=154749
Most convincing argument yet … because the top-10 wasn’t cut and pasted from others’ lists, it must be in error. I LOVE drafting against group thinkers.
Yeah, what was I thinking, citing the fact that EVERY OTHER RANKING AND DRAFT IN EXISTENCE has Tulo as a top 10 player? Of course, that’s only because we’re all sheep, and has nothing to do with merit. Have fun drafting Jeter in the first round to stick it to the rest of the world who lack your ability to think outside the box.
Just curious—if Tulo was ranked 35th on this list, what argument would you accept that that was in error?
Given that Ben and Balti have very similar expectations for Tulo, the difference is apparently how much to bump up Tulo’s value due to positional scarcity since SS is indeed scarce.
Ben doesn’t seem to be giving MIs much of a value boost in these rankings, and just to cherry-pick a few pairs I found interesting:
-Hanley’s projected line is arguably better than Miggy’s yet he has Hanley below him
-Uggla is projected for an equally valuable line to Morneau though they are ranked next to each other even though Uggla will give you those numbers at 2B
I have no standard, mathematical way of adjusting for positional scarcity (I know Zach Sanders at FG tried his hand at it yesterday) but I’m more in Baltimoron’s boat that it should be taken more into account here, which would push Tulo into the top 10. Not that this means there is something wrong with Ben’s list or it needs to be fixed.
Jeff – I find it interesting you say in H2H “consistency comes at a premium” since I’ve always felt the opposite. In roto leagues it is more important to accrue high totals over the full course of a season, and in H2H I’ve traditionally taken more risky players since it doesn’t matter if they are hurt for most of the summer (as long as you make the playoffs) since as long as your team is healthy come August/September you’ll be in good shape for the playoffs.
Lastly, love the Lang quote.
I think choosing “risky” players in roto v. h2h is an interesting argument. I believe it has a lot to do with how deep your league is. If you’re in a 12 team league, there’s going to be players that are available that can get you value over replacement player in the short term (one to two months). In h2h, all that matters is getting to the playoffs and having your team at full strength then. A fun exercise would be to look at the amount of quality players per position are available on a given waiver wire in 10, 12, 14, 16, 20 team leagues etc.
Ben,
Good stuff. As you know, I love Lester as well. He was terrific last year and is only going to get better. Some minor points of contention: I like Cano better than Chase, especially with the reports of Utley suffering from patella tendinitis already. Also don’t like Hamilton in the top 10, solely because of the injury risk. Would put Tulo in his spot (Tulo’s injuries have been fluky, while Hamilton’s have been strains/ligament type deals). Good work.
@Will-
Crawford is a funny guy to rank for me. I am so infatuated in the BoSox that I had to discount someone as I drove the values of Pedroia, AGon, Youky, and Ellsbury’s up. The green light has to slow down for Crawford. I think he could turn into more of a 20/30 guy in 2011 and those 40+ steal seasons may be gone for the moment. If that’s Longo worthy, then you may be right.
I agree that wins are “unpredictable” but there are some guys who have a better chance at winning because of several factors like offensive support, pitching late into games, good bullpens, or great bullpens. Those elements you can predict with some certainty.
Agreed on Morneau.
Agreed on McCutchen.
It’s not that there’s a large gap of actual home run production from Choo to Cruz. Those projections are misleading in a sense. Cruz has trouble making 500+ plate appearances whereas, Choo has been a lock for 640+.
So Cruz had 22 HR in 445 PA
Choo had 22 HR in 646 PA
I just like to imagine an entire season of Nelson Cruz. As you know he wen 33 HR/ 20 SB in just 515 PA in 2009 and 44 HRs between minors and majors in 2008. That’s not including great performances in the DWL and WBC in between
Cruz had 5 extra inning HRs in 2010 leading MLB. He’s almost won a HR Derby (09). More HRs per AB than Josh Hamilton. Basically, I am a massive “healthy” Nelson Cruz fan.
“good bullpens and great bullpens” although clever was supposed to read “good bullpens and great DEFENSE”. Sorry I don’t have an editor to fix my mistakes in the comment section.
My problem about the initial Tulo comment is in the way in which its tone suggests close-mindedness, not that ranking him outside the top ten is most probably the best answer. Specifically, the assumption that positional scarcity trumps probable production is not, in my opinion, a given in the earliest rounds. There is a very valid argument to be made that the probability that a first-rounder nears his projection is more important than either upside or scarcity. I want to be as sure as possible that I maximize those first couple of roster spots production-wise, so therefore I would shy away from a player whose three-year regressed PAs rank below over ONE HUNDERED others, not to mention the streakiness displayed in the past year. I think that one needs to be pretty assured of a pretty good reward for early picks, moreso than one needs to fill a scarce position or gamble on great reward at the cost of taking on more risk with those first picks.
In effect, there is SIGNIFICANT doubt that Tulo goes 100-30-100-15-.300. Based on a 3-2-1 PA-regression and his past production, I don’t see how one could assume any of those first four numbers, let alone “at least” that much. If anything, I think Pritchett’s projections are far too high in SB, as well as overreaching in runs. I happen to think a good 50/50 is 90-25-95-10-.300. I’m not saying I’m sure to be right about that, and certainly believe he can be much better, but it is a fair assessment given his actual past production and, as such, gives me every reason to avoid him in favor of any number of bats more likely to produce a good deal more.
Oh, and that hardly means I’d then overreach on a Jeter or the like. Needing such an assumption to support one’s argument is facile, at best. If you must know, I’d gladly punt SS in favor of a sick CI-group backed by a strong supporting cast at the other positions…
Well said Will. All of my ‘projections’ are on the high side with the exception of a few (coming in the next rankings list). Since projections are pretty much meaningless, I like to have more fun with them. Like I said, there are much more scientific projections out there. I like THT Forecasts for a broad, career look. I like Baseball Forecaster by Ron Shandler to help keep my grounded. I like Bill James’ stuff for his wishful projections. I model more closely to his. I am indifferent towards PECOTA and Marcel. I don’t know much about Marcel, and the Baseball Prospectus guys do a really good job with their player evaluation write ups.
To all who are arguing positional scarcity, your points are valid, and I can agree. My ranking of Tulow is more of an adjustment on my disbelief that he will replicate his 2010 stats into 2011. I think he’ll have a much harder time than the ten ahead of him. Arod is really the only guy on the list that I would even consider dropping below Tulow.
Tulow had 12 home runs going into September. Yes he had an incredible month, and he was awesome in 2009. The volatility bothers me in H2H. Give me Votto who was a steady producer all year.
@Paul:
Adressing MIs separately
– I rank Miguel Cabrera ahead of Hanley because his bat moreso than my projections merit such ranking
– I was on the low side with my projection of Morneau because of the Concussion mess. I was on the high side with Uggla because I like the situation he is in at Atlanta. Given a choice in a draft I might take Uggla over Morneau due to the Pos Scar. argument. But then again Morneau could be an MVP candidate. Could Uggla?
Is nobody going to comment on the #24 ranking of Jason Heyward?
Anyone who would completely concede a position is foolish.
Just so I’m clear, what are you questioning in Tulo’s uncertainty in reaching his projections? His health? His talent?
Three fake trades, who gets the better end of it:
Tulo and Nelson Cruz or Justin Upton for Reyes and Hamilton
Tulo and Youkilis for A-Rod and Reyes
Tulo and a waiver wire OF for Hamilton and a waiver wire SS
Was done w/ Tulo posts, but since you asked for a comp:
[as per ESPN draft result ADPs and Marcel projections]:
Votto and Tulo = 9th ADP, Tejada and Ike Davis = 211th ADP
Votto + Tejada vs. Tulo + Davis = + 11 runs, +2 HR, +15 RBI, = SB, and + .016 avg.
you ALWAYS “punt” some position intentionally or not, insofar as a roster always has someone drafted late/ for a dollar; it’s not being thoughtful about what and why you do that is foolish.
Why is Butler so high @44? I did not see an explanation. 1st base is pretty deep and if your projections hold, Dunn’s 40 bombs and .267 avg should definitely be ahead of 20/.311 Butler.
Also Kinsler has more than a good chance to beat Butler’s projection by a decent margin from the 2nd base spot and he doesn’t even get a mention.
Will someone get Tulo’s mom to stop posting on this site?
Only if you can get your mom outta my bedroom, Jimmy. Bazinga! Sorry, you really did set yourself up for that one.
But seriously, come get your mom.
Butler is ranked so high for a points based system H2H system. I tried to mix them in. As Butler compares to Dunn, 44 to 46 really isn’t that big of a difference. Dunn could easily outperform Butler. That’s a given.
I like Butler, and I think 2009 is more what we can expect from him. Last year in a Points Based League, he ranked around 40 overall. Dunn was closer to the 100 mark.
Ian Kinsler could be back in 2010. He leads off my 51-100 rankings. You may be right. I may be ranking him too low, but 2010 wasn’t all that good.
Honestly though, Kinsler may actually be a guy I will need to rerank. Especially if he continues his great spring.
McCutchen for 40 RBI? He’s supposed to hit 3rd this year…
If he’s hitting third then he should get at least 20 more RBIs. I didn’t have depth chart info like that when I forecasted, and that’s all the more reason to like what he offers the fantasy gamer.