Is Jorge Posada toast as a righty hitter?
In 2011, when Jorge Posada hit right-handed, it was worse than having a pitcher hit. As a righty, Jorge had a BA/OBP/SLG of .092/.169/.108 over 71 plate appearances; pitchers in 2011 had a line of .141/.175/.153.
Posada did not get a hit batting right-handed until June 7, starting the season 0-for-27. Thus, since last May, Yankee beat writers and other local media have been constantly citing Posada’s bad righty splits. The consensus of such observers for a while has been that Posada is done as a right-handed hitter, as was expressed, for example, by Professional Baseball Player Career Adviser Bob Klapisch.
Of course, if you are reading The Hardball Times, you do not need me to prove that Posada’s 2011 righty splits, amounting to about 2.5 weeks of plate appearances, alone are not enough to assert anything with great confidence. Rather, what happened is that Mr. Klapisch’s article annoyed me. It was the straw that broke the camel’s back in terms of incessantly coming across articles about Posada’s $#@%$#@ splits.
So for some winter fun, I used the Retrosheet data to explore the implications of confidently asserting judgments based on 71 plate appearances. The first thing I wanted to do was quantify the degree of confidence one can in general place in 71 trips to the plate. One quick method is to calculate the range of OBP an average 2011 hitter could be expected to have in 71 plate appearances.
In 2011, non-pitchers averaged an OBP of .325. The R formula qbinom(c(.1,.9),71,.325)/71 indicates that with 90 percent confidence, an average hitter would have an OBP in the range of .253-.394. In other words, after 71 plate appearances, an average hitter’s OBP could be anywhere between Miguel Olivo’s and Ryan Braun’s, and we’d really have no way of knowing the difference.
That being said, Posada’s OBP was well below .253, the low end of that range. The binomial distribution probability indicates that the likelihood of an average hitter having an OBP of .169 after 71 plate appearances is approximately .0025.
At first glance, those odds—one out of 400—may make it seem that Posada’s righty skills indeed have gone the way of all flesh. However, these are hardly astronomical odds in a baseball context; thousands of streaks of 71 consecutive plate appearances occur each season, and I would expect such ugly streaks occasionally happen to average-and-above players.
But does my expectation here reflect reality? To study that, I wrote a program that pulls from the Retrosheet data the stats batters compiled in streaks of 71 consecutive plate appearances; for example, a batter’s first “streak” would span from his first to 71st appearances of the season, his second streak would span his second through 72nd, etc. The results will reveal whether average and above-average hitters experience such horrible streaks.
For 2011, excluding pitchers, there were 485 players who had 71 or more plate appearances; these players had a total of 140,813 streaks that consisted of 71 plate appearances. A total of 685 of those streaks resulted in an OBP less than or equal to Posada’s right-handed OBP of .169.
Of course, not all the players in this latter set have at least average OBP skills, so to quickly identify whether players with at least average OBP skills had such bad streaks, I pulled the players with at least 400 plate appearances in both 2010 and 2011. This will not eliminate all players with below-average OBP skills—for example, the results will include players kept in the lineup for real/perceived defensive skills, players on lousy teams, and players with offensive skills other than OBP.
But for this purpose, it is a non-issue if some or even most of the players in the query results are crappy hitters. All we are looking for here is whether a few average-or-above players had such poor streaks. The following table lists the players, their OBPs for the last two seasons, and their lowest OBP in a set of 71 consecutive plate appearances.
Player 2011 - worst OBP, 71 PA 2011 OBP 2010 OBP Aybar, Erick .127 .317 .306 Beckham, Gordon .129 .293 .317 Betancourt, Yuniesk .141 .271 .288 Dunn, Adam .155 .292 .356 Ellis, Mark .116 .283 .358 Lind, Adam .155 .295 .287 Loney, James .157 .337 .329 McGehee, Casey .169 .280 .337 Olivo, Miguel .155 .252 .315 Raburn, Ryan .130 .294 .340 Rasmus, Colby .155 .297 .361 Rios, Alexis .169 .265 .334 Soriano, Alfonso .141 .289 .322 Suzuki, Ichiro .155 .309 .359 Theriot, Ryan .169 .317 .321 Uggla, Dan .127 .311 .369 Wells, Vernon .155 .248 .331 TOTAL na .293 .332
It is fair to say, I think, that at minimum, Ichiro, Loney, and Uggla can be considered to have at least average OBP skills, despite their horrific 71-PA streaks within 2011. You could make arguments for or against others as well, based on various criteria, but again, I am merely looking for evidence that such streaks happen to a few at-least-average players.
In terms of overall offense, the following table shows some putrid 71-PA streaks in 2011 for players with arguably average-or-above skills.
Player BA OBP SLG wOBA Uggla, Dan .090 .127 .104 .111 Raburn, Ryan .104 .130 .119 .114 Aybar, Erick .101 .127 .130 .119 Loney, James .109 .157 .125 .124 Suzuki, Ichiro .118 .155 .162 .126 Smoak, Justin .079 .155 .111 .134 McGehee, Casey .123 .169 .123 .142
As expected, average-or-above players do experience 71-PA streaks during which they hit worse than pitchers. But for further validation, I wanted to see whether such hideous streaks happen to proven good players. So I ran the program for all players who have accumulated 6,000 at-bats and have played at some point since Posada’s career began. The following table lists selected horrific streaks of name-brand players.
Player Year BA OBP SLG wOBA Konerko, Paul 2003 .079 .169 .079 .124 Suzuki, Ichiro 2011 .119 .157 .164 .126 Beltran, Carlos 2009 .116 .141 .159 .126 Rollins, Jimmy 2005 .104 .155 .104 .129 Helton, Todd 2005 .085 .229 .102 .139 Sosa, Sammy 1991 .116 .129 .203 .141 Bonds, Barry 1988 .136 .183 .167 .144 Suzuki, Ichiro 2003 .118 .155 .162 .146 Jeter, Derek 2004 .123 .174 .185 .151 Gonzalez, Luis 1992 .092 .155 .169 .152 Delgado, Carlos 2008 .098 .211 .115 .152 Ibanez, Raul 2002 .134 .169 .194 .154 Piazza, Mike 2001 .132 .169 .191 .154 Ortiz, David 2009 .118 .155 .221 .166 Guerrero, Vladimir 2006 .155 .155 .268 .178 Guerrero, Vladimir 2005 .134 .169 .284 .184 Rodriguez, Alex 1999 .119 .169 .299 .201
The data here speaks for themselves, but I do have a couple of comments.
First, to put the 1-in-400 odds that led to this exercise in context, let’s look at Alex Rodriguez’s 1999 streak. A-Rod’s on-base percentage in 1999 was .357; the previous year’s was .360 and the following year’s .420. So it is reasonable to think that his actual on-base skills were something in the range of .357-.420. Using the lowest end of the range, .357, as the probability, the binomial distribution indicates the odds of A-Rod performing as poorly as he actually did were 1 in 2,500.
Second, as a Yankee fan, I wish ESPN writer Bill Simmons had been the Red Sox GM during Big Papi’s 2009 slump, which included the above 71 plate appearances.
Circling back to Posada, the 1-in-400 odds clearly do not mean his 71 plate appearances are predictive; his hideous 71 righty plate appearances certainly could be due to a collapse in skills but also to random fluctuation or bad luck.
Let’s look at luck. Posada’s BABIP batting right-handed was .146, suggesting bad luck may have been a factor. For fun, let’s play the role of the Baseball Gods and give Posada six more hits to get him to a typical BABIP of around .300; with that, his OBP would be .254.
Coincidence or not, .254 happens to be the bottom of the expected range that pbinom() calculates as the expected OBP of an average player. Does this prove that luck was behind Jorge’s abominable righty hitting? Of course not; the .146 BABIP could reflect a washed-up hitter capable of only weak contact; it merely suggests the possibility of horrendous luck.
Since Posada’s righty 2011 stats alone are not useful to gauge his skills, what I next checked were splits from the last few years. Was Posada showing signs of a righty-hitting collapse before 2011? The following table lists Posada’s righty splits over the last few years, along with his career righty splits.
Year Hand PAs BA BABIP OBP SLG wOBA 2009 R 139 .290 .397 .360 .476 .366 2010 R 153 .257 .300 .340 .493 .360 2011 R 71 .092 .146 .169 .108 .132 Career R 2052 .288 .341 .371 .482 .375
In 2009-2010, Posada’s right-handed hitting, as measured by wOBA, was slightly below his career average but still very good. However, the bulk of his career was in a higher-scoring era than 2010. In terms of park factor, the new Yankee Stadium has been more of a hitter’s park than the old stadium—however, Yankee Stadiums old and new favor lefty hitters, so it also would be useful to look at adjusted stats with and without park factors.
The following table shows both actual and adjusted wOBA for Posada’s right-handed hitting, adjusted against the AL 2011 environment of 4.46 runs-per-game.
Adjusted wOBA Year R/G Park Factor PAs wOBA (Park Factor) (No Park Factor) 1996 5.39 1.01 5 .180 .165 .165 1997 4.93 1.00 43 .350 .337 .337 1998 5.01 0.97 122 .421 .408 .403 1999 5.18 0.98 106 .367 .349 .346 2000 5.30 0.99 186 .404 .381 .380 2001 4.86 1.02 175 .375 .362 .365 2002 4.81 1.00 157 .419 .408 .408 2003 4.86 0.98 144 .436 .428 .425 2004 5.01 0.98 169 .385 .371 .368 2005 4.76 0.98 195 .372 .367 .364 2006 4.97 1.01 158 .356 .343 .344 2007 4.90 1.01 168 .396 .382 .383 2008 4.78 1.03 61 .308 .297 .300 2009 4.82 1.05 139 .366 .350 .356 2010 4.45 1.05 153 .360 .354 .361 2011 4.46 1.08 71 .132 .127 .132 Total NA NA 2052 .375 .372 .372
This perspective suggests Posada’s 2011 righty performance was not part of a trend but rather either an outlier or a falling off of the cliff.
In terms of looking for decline patterns, it’s worth also checking his lefty-hitting over the years.
Adjusted wOBA Year R/G Park Factor PAs wOBA (Park Factor) (No Park Factor) 1996 5.39 1.01 10 .072 .072 .072 1997 4.93 1.00 181 .342 .330 .330 1998 5.01 0.97 287 .318 .308 .304 1999 5.18 0.98 331 .317 .302 .300 2000 5.30 0.99 438 .404 .381 .380 2001 4.86 1.02 382 .355 .341 .344 2002 4.81 1.00 441 .343 .334 .334 2003 4.86 0.98 444 .394 .385 .382 2004 5.01 0.98 378 .395 .382 .380 2005 4.76 0.98 351 .341 .335 .332 2006 4.97 1.01 386 .398 .381 .382 2007 4.90 1.01 421 .427 .412 .413 2008 4.78 1.03 134 .347 .335 .338 2009 4.82 1.05 299 .387 .369 .376 2010 4.45 1.05 298 .353 .347 .353 2011 4.46 1.08 316 .362 .352 .362 Total NA NA 5097 .369 .363 .364
Posada’s .352 lefty wOBA in 2011 would have been a positive at any position, the point being that there is nothing to suggest a general physical breakdown in 2011. Of course, it is possible that some physical issue impacted some part of Posada’s body that only affects his righty hitting.
Finally, apart from statistics, one might argue that the Yankees only giving Posada 71 plate appearances as a righty, while giving him a representative number of lefty plate appearances, suggests manager Joe Girardi considered him washed up as a righty. But as someone who pays too much attention to the Yankees, I suggest that this playing pattern more likely reflects an accident of roster construction and injuries.
What I mean is that Posada lost his job as righty DH in mid-May after 30 righty plate appearances with zero hits and six walks. But he was slumping from both sides of the plate at the time, and I suspect that if Eric Chavez was not injured at the time, Posada would have been benched from both sides of the plate. After all, that is what Girardi did in August; he benched Posada for awhile when he again fell into a slump and used Chavez as the lefty DH (or sometimes Chavez at third base and A-Rod at DH).
Posada later played himself back into the lineup as the lefty DH for the stretch run and playoffs, showing that Girardi was inclined to periodically change lineups in order to play the hot, and sit the cool, hand. Andruw Jones, and later Jesus Montero, hit so well as righty DH options that Girardi never had a reason to give Posada another shot in that role.
Given Posada’s rumored retirement, we may never get a chance to see whether his 2011 righty splits were predictive or mere noise. However, a careful reading of the details suggests the rumors are conditional—according to the New York Times, Posada “told teammates that he plans to retire rather than attempt to play for another team at 40.” The trading of Montero may open a door for Posada, because the trade opens up the DH slot.
It seems likely the Yankees would prefer someone willing to be a part-time DH so they can give a fair amount of DH time to A-Rod and other starters for the purposes of occasional rest. Will some of the rumored candidates such as Carlos Pena be willing to play such a limited role? It’s conceivable that Posada may emerge as the best available candidate for that type of role.
In weighing the Posada option, I would expect Brian Cashman to evaluate factors such as Posada’s age and the degree to which Posada’s ability to play a decent first base and be an emergency catcher provides Girardi with roster flexibility when compared with other options. If this is more than mere idle speculation on my part, I would also expect Cashman and Girardi to view Posada’s switch-hitting as a potential benefit, not to assume that 71 horrible plate appearances mean he is done as a righty.