Just How Good Are These Rookies?
Every once in a while, handicapping the Rookie of the Year races can be easy. Back in 2001, Ichiro! came over from Japan and hit .350 for a record-breaking Mariners team, while Albert Pujols made the jump from Single-A to hit .329/.403/.610 with 37 homers and 130 RBIs for the Cardinals. That year both leagues had no-brainer ROY picks who were immediate All-Stars and legitimate MVP candidates. In fact, Ichiro! actually won the AL MVP, and Pujols finished fourth in the NL.
A year like 2001 is unique, however, in that most seasons have an overall rookie class that just isn’t all that impressive. For instance, Pujols (84.6) and Ichiro! (61.6) each racked up huge Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) totals as rookies, and Roy Oswalt also checked in with an impressive 44.0 VORP that season. Compare that to last year, when Bobby Crosby and Jason Bay took home the ROY honors and no rookie had even 40 VORP.
Because the pool of performances is typically not particularly outstanding compared to, say, MVP candidates, the ROY picture is also often more muddled than in 2001. Even with Oswalt going 14-3 with a 2.73 ERA for the Astros, Pujols and Ichiro! were clearly the top rookies. Last season, Crosby and Bay didn’t even lead their respective leagues in VORP among rookies. Bay (34.6) finished second to Khalil Greene (37.6), while Crosby (23.0) actually finished sixth, behind Zack Greinke (36.4), Justin Duchscherer (30.2), Bobby Madritsch (28.0), Shingo Takatsu (26.5), and David Newhan (24.5).
All of which brings up two interesting questions. First, how strong is the average rookie class? Second, how often do elite rookies really separate themselves from the rest of the pack? I wrote in 2003 that the rookie class that season was strong, with Dontrelle Willis and Angel Berroa winning the awards and Scott Podsednik, Brandon Webb, Hideki Matsui, Rocco Baldelli, Mark Teixeira, Alex Cintron and Jody Gerut also having very good rookie seasons. Last season, I wrote that the rookie class, which included Crosby and Bay, was weak.
Rather than simply crunching a few numbers and then eyeballing the rookie class of 2005 before labeling their quality, I thought it would be better to look over past seasons to determine exactly what a “strong” or “weak” rookie class actually means. There are all sorts of ways to approach a question like this, but I’m going with a straightfoward look at the VORP totals posted by the five best rookies in a given season. That should answer both of the questions above, showing how good the pool of rookies tends to be and whether or not one or two rookies usually stand out from the rest.
I’ll save the gigantic tables with all the details and specific players for the end of the article, so here is a compact version of the results:
YEAR #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 TOP-5 2004 37.6 36.4 34.6 33.0 30.2 171.8 2003 49.4 48.0 40.7 39.4 38.9 216.4 2002 55.4 47.7 35.1 33.7 29.5 201.4 2001 84.6 61.6 44.0 43.2 28.4 261.8 2000 43.2 38.5 37.0 35.0 34.3 188.0 1999 52.1 44.3 44.1 41.9 40.9 223.3 1998 56.8 45.3 38.7 38.7 36.1 215.6 1997 76.8 49.9 49.1 34.5 32.5 242.8 1996 51.9 41.2 39.0 33.3 28.4 193.8 1995* 64.8 54.7 41.7 41.5 41.4 244.1 1994* 48.6 46.4 42.1 37.7 36.4 211.2 1993 68.3 55.7 35.5 34.6 33.1 227.2 1992 42.1 39.9 39.1 37.9 28.3 187.3 1991 49.2 31.6 29.0 26.0 25.6 161.4 1990 43.3 41.9 37.8 33.6 30.7 187.3 AVG 54.9 45.5 39.2 36.3 33.0 208.9
*Numbers from 1994 and 1995 are adjusted for strike-shortened seasons.
Over the past 15 seasons, the top rookie has averaged a VORP of 54.9. That’s pretty good, but it’s not all that great—a 54.9 VORP would have ranked 42nd among major league players last season. There is an average dropoff of 17.1% to the second-best rookie and a dropoff of 13.8% from the second-best rookie to the third-best rookie. However, the dropoffs from third-best to fourth-best and fourth-best to fifth-best are just 7.4% and 9.1%, respectively.
To me that says there are typically one or two rookies each season who separate themselves from the rest of the pack. In those 15 seasons, however, the best rookie has been at least 20% better than the second-best rookie just six times. Also, of the 15 players who led all big-league rookies in VORP, five of them—Greene (2004), Webb (2003), Rick Ankiel (2000), Freddy Garcia (1999) and Rolando Arrojo (1998)—failed to even win the ROY for their league.
So what is a rookie class typically worth? Well, the top five rookies in a season have averaged 208.9 VORP over the last 15 years. The best rookie has been worth around 55 VORP, the #2 guy has been worth about 45 VORP, and the next few rookies have been worth 33-40 VORP. Considering 164 major leaguers totaled at least 30 VORP last year, that’s not a particularly impressive showing once you get past the top two rookies.
The best rookie class of the past 15 seasons was undoubtedly the aforementioned 2001 group that featured Ichiro!, Pujols, Oswalt, Jimmy Rollins and C.C. Sabathia. They combined for a VORP of 261.8, which is 25.3% above average and 7.2% better than the second-best class (Hideo Nomo, Ismael Valdez, Andy Pettitte, Marty Cordova and Chad Ogea in 1995). Rollins finished fourth in 2001, but he had a VORP total high enough to rank first in four of the other 14 seasons.
And the worst rookie class? That would be the 1991 group that consisted of Jeff Bagwell, Juan Guzman, Chuck Knoblauch, Charles Nagy and Orlando Merced. Bagwell held his own with a 49.1 VORP at the top, but no other rookie managed even 32 VORP that season. Oh, and as I suspected last year after eyeballing the numbers, the 2004 rookie class ranks as the second-worst of the past 15 years.
Finally, where does this year’s rookie class figure to rank when the season is over? Sorry, to find that out you’ll have to check back for the next installment of “Just How Good Are These Rookies?” (Coming soon to a website near you!) For now, here are some lovely tables and gory details to look at:
2004 ROOKIES VORP 2003 ROOKIES VORP 2002 ROOKIES VORP ======================== ======================== ======================== Khalil Greene 37.6 Brandon Webb 49.4 Eric Hinske 55.4 Zack Greinke 36.4 Scott Podsednik 48.0 Rodrigo Lopez 47.7 Jason Bay 34.6 Dontrelle Willis 40.7 Brad Wilkerson 35.1 Akinori Otsuka 33.0 Angel Berroa 39.4 Austin Kearns 33.7 Justin Duchscherer 30.2 Alex Cintron 38.9 Bobby Kielty 29.5 ======================== ======================== ======================== AVERAGE OF TOP 5 34.4 AVERAGE OF TOP 5 43.2 AVERAGE OF TOP 5 40.3 2001 ROOKIES VORP 2000 ROOKIES VORP 1999 ROOKIES VORP ======================== ======================== ======================== Albert Pujols 84.6 Rick Ankiel 43.2 Freddy Garcia 52.1 Ichiro! 61.6 Barry Zito 38.5 Tim Hudson 44.3 Roy Oswalt 44.0 Rafael Furcal 37.0 John Halama 44.1 Jimmy Rollins 43.2 Matt Herges 35.0 Jeff Zimmerman 41.9 C.C. Sabathia 28.4 Lance Berkman 34.3 Preston Wilson 40.9 ======================== ======================== ======================== AVERAGE OF TOP 5 65.5 AVERAGE OF TOP 5 37.6 AVERAGE OF TOP 5 44.7 1998 ROOKIES VORP 1997 ROOKIES VORP 1996 ROOKIES VORP ======================== ======================== ======================== Rolando Arrojo 56.8 Nomar Garciaparra 76.8 Derek Jeter 51.9 Orlando Hernandez 45.3 Scott Rolen 49.9 Jose Rosado 41.2 Todd Helton 38.7 Matt Morris 49.1 James Baldwin 39.0 Ben Grieve 38.7 Chris Holt 34.5 Edgar Renteria 33.3 Kerry Wood 36.1 Tony Womack 32.5 Terry Adams 28.4 ======================== ======================== ======================== AVERAGE OF TOP 5 43.1 AVERAGE OF TOP 5 48.9 AVERAGE OF TOP 5 38.8 1995 ROOKIES VORP 1994 ROOKIES VORP 1993 ROOKIES VORP ======================== ======================== ======================== Hideo Nomo 64.8 Bob Hamelin 48.6 Mike Piazza 68.3 Ismael Valdez 54.7 Steve Trachsel 46.4 Tim Salmon 55.7 Andy Pettitte 41.7 Shane Reynolds 42.1 Brent Gates 35.5 Marty Cordova 41.5 Joey Hamilton 37.7 Troy Neel 34.6 Chad Ogea 41.4 Rusty Greer 36.4 Greg McMichael 33.1 ======================== ======================== ======================== AVERAGE OF TOP 5 48.8 AVERAGE OF TOP 5 42.2 AVERAGE OF TOP 5 45.4 1992 ROOKIES VORP 1991 ROOKIES VORP 1990 ROOKIES VORP ======================== ======================== ======================== Pat Listach 42.1 Jeff Bagwell 49.2 David Justice 43.3 Kenny Lofton 39.9 Juan Guzman 31.6 Kevin Appier 41.9 Dave Fleming 39.1 Chuck Knoblauch 29.0 Delino DeShields 37.8 Cal Eldred 37.9 Charles Nagy 26.0 Ben McDonald 33.6 Julio Valera 28.3 Orlando Merced 25.6 Hal Morris 30.7 ======================== ======================== ======================== AVERAGE OF TOP 5 37.5 AVERAGE OF TOP 5 32.1 AVERAGE OF TOP 5 37.5