Luck leaders and LIPS

Note: This post has been changed since it was originally published. All LIPS stats were changed from LIPS RA to LIPS ERA. — D.C. 7/10/07

Last week, I examined lucky and unlucky pitchers using LOB%, BABIP, HR/FB and LD%. In the comments section of that post, several of you expressed interest in seeing a similar list using FIP-ERA. I thought this sounded like a great idea, except that I’m not a big fan of FIP.

FIP uses home runs, which—as we talked about last week—is partially dependent on luck. If we look at the FIP leaders so far, just three pitchers in the majors come in under 3.00. No. 1 is Jake Peavy and No. 2 is Chris Young. These two happen to be No. 1 and No. 2 in HR/FB as well.

So I’ve decided to use this concept, but substitute LIPS for FIP. LIPS —Luck Independent Pitching Statistics—was created by David Gassko, who wrote about it last December in his article DIPS, LIPS, and Hips. A big thanks to David for providing the LIPS numbers you see below.

An improvement upon David’s own DIPS 3.0, it uses strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches and batted ball numbers. They’re not just any batted ball numbers, though. LIPS uses a league average line drive rate (since they are also luck dependent) and changes the other three accordingly. It also accounts for the luck that goes into home runs.

LIPS – ERA luck leaders

Unluckiest

Requirements: Any pitcher with 8 or more starts and a LIPS – ERA less than -1.00

LAST	FIRST	G	GS	IP	ERA	LIPS	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	GB%	GB/FB	LOB%	BABIP	HR/FB	LD%	LIPS – ERA
Seo	Jae	11	10	52.0	8.13	4.31	4.85	2.77	1.75	37.00	1.01	64.33	0.390	13.41	21.00	-3.82
Elarton	Scott	8	8	35.3	9.17	5.64	3.31	4.84	0.68	30.15	0.63	62.50	0.287	16.67	16.91	-3.53
Fossum	Casey	29	10	64.7	7.52	4.18	5.85	3.06	1.91	45.87	1.71	64.13	0.375	15.07	22.31	-3.34
Jackson	Edwin	17	16	74.7	7.23	4.24	7.83	5.06	1.55	41.27	1.24	65.32	0.376	11.83	19.05	-2.99
Igawa	Kei	9	8	46.7	7.14	4.32	6.36	4.44	1.43	30.77	0.70	65.50	0.283	14.10	18.59	-2.82
Colon	Bartolo	14	14	79.7	6.44	3.98	6.67	2.49	2.68	38.63	1.02	67.86	0.359	12.93	17.69	-2.46
Westbrook	Jake	9	9	47.3	6.27	3.95	5.70	3.42	1.67	48.45	2.05	61.92	0.320	13.95	20.50	-2.32
Reyes	Anthony	12	12	64.7	6.40	4.10	6.40	3.34	1.92	38.86	1.04	59.44	0.303	9.09	17.54	-2.30
Tomko	Brett	26	8	67.0	6.18	3.88	7.93	3.22	2.46	36.94	1.05	65.71	0.367	10.98	23.42	-2.30
Padilla	Vicente	15	15	80.7	6.69	4.43	5.24	3.90	1.34	45.30	1.61	67.81	0.351	12.90	22.82	-2.26
Tejeda	Robinson	17	17	86.0	6.70	4.46	6.59	5.13	1.29	34.84	0.82	68.86	0.323	11.35	14.63	-2.24
Baker	Timothy	9	9	52.0	5.71	3.55	7.10	2.08	3.42	38.55	1.21	64.72	0.325	13.56	23.49	-2.16
Millwood	Kevin	15	15	80.3	6.16	4.10	6.72	3.59	1.88	42.65	1.31	69.79	0.341	12.87	20.07	-2.06
Santana	Ervin	18	18	104.0	5.97	3.94	7.18	3.29	2.18	34.11	0.84	72.70	0.314	14.65	18.66	-2.03
Baek	Cha Seung	11	11	64.3	5.74	3.75	6.44	1.82	3.54	34.08	0.94	61.92	0.335	6.74	24.22	-1.99
Garcia	Freddy	11	11	58.0	5.90	3.95	7.76	2.95	2.63	34.74	1.02	73.89	0.363	17.39	25.79	-1.95
Weaver	Jeff	12	12	59.7	6.34	4.39	4.83	2.26	2.13	36.89	0.95	62.37	0.364	5.21	18.67	-1.95
Belisle	Matt	17	17	102.3	5.28	3.48	5.89	1.93	3.05	43.06	1.43	67.26	0.326	11.76	20.23	-1.80
Simontacchi	Jason	12	12	66.3	6.11	4.38	5.16	2.58	2.00	35.44	0.89	67.02	0.345	9.80	19.83	-1.73
Wells	Kip	19	15	92.7	5.92	4.33	6.80	4.56	1.49	46.67	1.56	66.05	0.303	11.88	17.67	-1.59
Sowers	Jeremy	12	12	62.3	6.93	5.45	2.74	2.74	1.00	39.83	0.98	61.36	0.305	9.62	15.77	-1.48
Gonzalez	Edgar	16	8	61.0	5.31	3.86	6.79	2.36	2.88	42.79	1.10	71.43	0.286	14.12	13.93	-1.45
Pelfrey	Michael	8	8	41.3	6.10	4.71	4.57	4.79	0.95	46.53	1.76	66.77	0.319	9.52	21.53	-1.39
Davies	Kyle	16	16	86.0	5.55	4.20	6.17	4.29	1.44	39.36	1.16	68.85	0.294	11.11	19.50	-1.35
Lincecum	Timothy	12	12	72.0	4.63	3.33	9.88	4.00	2.47	43.52	1.24	66.08	0.287	9.72	15.54	-1.30
Ramirez	Horacio	8	8	40.3	6.47	5.17	3.12	4.02	0.78	46.54	1.61	65.93	0.353	6.00	22.01	-1.30
Olsen	Scott	19	19	103.3	5.23	3.94	7.14	4.35	1.64	36.76	1.11	73.00	0.344	10.16	22.65	-1.29
Towers	Josh	16	10	71.0	5.07	3.82	6.85	1.39	4.91	43.04	1.29	70.33	0.314	14.63	20.25	-1.25
Capuano	Christopher	15	15	79.0	4.78	3.54	7.63	3.76	2.03	44.35	1.51	72.88	0.323	10.59	18.15	-1.24
Johnson	Randy	10	10	56.7	3.81	2.59	11.44	2.06	5.54	38.89	1.14	76.01	0.338	12.50	18.75	-1.22
Arroyo	Bronson	18	18	111.7	4.84	3.67	6.04	3.06	1.97	31.93	0.88	69.69	0.331	5.45	20.84	-1.17
Williams	Woody	19	19	113.0	5.34	4.18	4.62	2.71	1.71	36.50	0.98	73.26	0.291	12.43	17.75	-1.16
Eaton	Adam	18	18	104.3	5.69	4.60	5.78	4.14	1.40	37.54	1.04	69.68	0.295	12.59	18.32	-1.09
Wolf	Randy	18	18	102.7	4.73	3.65	8.24	3.42	2.41	39.50	1.17	71.63	0.334	8.13	18.81	-1.08
Bush	David	18	17	107.3	4.86	3.78	6.71	2.01	3.33	42.49	1.37	67.41	0.331	8.70	20.52	-1.08
Burnett	Allen	15	15	94.0	4.31	3.30	10.15	3.83	2.65	52.23	1.79	77.57	0.276	18.75	14.98	-1.01
Lieber	Jon	14	12	78.0	4.73	3.73	6.23	2.54	2.45	42.97	1.69	70.62	0.336	9.46	27.00	-1.00

Luckiest

Requirements: Any pitcher with 8 or more starts and a LIPS – ERA greater than 0.50

LAST	FIRST	G	GS	IP	ERA	LIPS	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	GB%	GB/FB	LOB%	BABIP	HR/FB	LD%	LIPS – ERA
Hill	Shawn	8	8	50.0	2.70	4.08	5.94	2.88	2.06	57.33	2.21	77.90	0.240	5.00	14.00	1.38
Penny	Brad	18	18	116.7	2.39	3.75	6.33	2.62	2.41	50.28	1.91	80.41	0.295	3.03	19.21	1.36
Gaudin	Chad	18	18	109.3	2.88	4.23	5.60	3.95	1.42	52.01	2.06	80.82	0.284	5.05	18.68	1.35
Young	Christopher	17	17	103.7	2.00	3.29	8.59	3.13	2.75	31.32	0.72	82.88	0.260	2.16	16.37	1.29
Lowry	Noah	17	17	107.3	3.35	4.64	5.37	4.61	1.16	44.84	1.46	78.15	0.280	5.36	18.29	1.29
Haren	Dan	19	19	129.3	2.30	3.45	7.03	2.23	3.16	43.27	1.21	84.91	0.238	7.14	15.04	1.15
Peavy	Jacob	18	18	119.0	2.19	3.14	9.45	2.57	3.68	45.83	1.42	80.44	0.294	2.75	16.99	0.95
Gorzelanny	Thomas	18	18	119.0	3.10	4.00	5.67	2.65	2.14	42.71	1.21	79.63	0.282	6.04	17.45	0.90
Mitre	Sergio	15	15	88.3	2.85	3.74	5.60	1.94	2.89	58.11	2.92	80.56	0.309	7.94	17.91	0.89
Guthrie	Jeremy	19	13	102.0	2.74	3.60	6.35	1.59	4.00	46.62	1.38	77.94	0.235	8.57	16.55	0.86
Buehrle	Mark	17	17	115.7	3.03	3.86	5.45	1.71	3.18	44.54	1.29	81.56	0.266	9.42	15.30	0.83
Lackey	John	18	18	120.7	2.91	3.73	7.31	2.39	3.06	43.45	1.32	82.20	0.276	8.53	20.61	0.82
Maine	John	17	17	109.7	2.71	3.51	7.63	3.28	2.33	35.67	0.93	82.88	0.255	7.19	17.20	0.80
Wang	Chien-Ming	15	15	104.3	3.36	4.15	4.14	2.33	1.78	57.99	2.76	74.84	0.280	7.69	17.75	0.79
Trachsel	Steve	17	17	92.7	4.95	5.74	3.01	4.37	0.69	40.06	1.02	71.88	0.272	8.15	17.43	0.79
Morris	Matt	17	17	114.0	3.55	4.29	4.74	2.92	1.62	47.18	1.64	77.59	0.301	6.35	17.95	0.74
Snell	Ian	17	17	116.7	2.93	3.62	7.17	2.55	2.82	45.09	1.28	80.37	0.285	6.82	15.32	0.69
Marquis	Jason	18	18	105.3	3.67	4.30	5.30	3.50	1.51	47.26	1.58	78.56	0.247	10.62	16.71	0.63
Hernandez	Livan	18	18	115.0	4.54	5.17	4.38	3.83	1.14	36.10	0.99	78.11	0.313	10.26	21.46	0.63
Lowe	Derek	19	19	127.0	3.12	3.69	6.52	2.69	2.42	62.47	3.33	77.03	0.286	10.81	15.94	0.57
Perez	Oliver	15	15	94.7	3.14	3.70	8.08	3.52	2.30	31.23	0.72	82.15	0.241	8.21	18.22	0.56
Germano	Justin	11	11	64.7	3.90	4.45	4.59	1.81	2.54	49.05	1.45	72.51	0.262	9.59	15.24	0.55
Hernandez	Orlando	13	13	78.3	3.22	3.75	7.01	3.56	1.97	41.52	1.09	82.05	0.234	10.42	11.61	0.53
Verlander	Justin	17	17	109.0	3.14	3.65	7.93	3.22	2.46	43.55	1.31	80.49	0.256	8.40	16.45	0.51

LIPS Top 25

Here’s a list of the Top 25 pitchers with at least 10 starts, sorted by LIPS ERA.

LAST	FIRST	G	GS	IP	ERA	LIPS	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	GB%	GB/FB	LOB%	BABIP	HR/FB	LD%	LIPS – ERA
Johnson	Randy	10	10	56.7	3.81	2.59	11.44	2.06	5.54	38.89	1.14	76.01	0.338	12.50	18.75	-1.22
Bedard	Erik	19	19	121.7	3.40	2.85	11.02	2.66	4.14	44.81	1.34	78.07	0.300	12.73	17.86	-0.55
Hamels	Colbert	18	18	118.7	3.72	2.93	9.40	2.20	4.28	37.50	1.02	82.35	0.307	14.29	17.56	-0.79
Hernandez	Felix	14	14	84.7	3.72	3.00	8.50	2.44	3.48	58.10	2.63	77.07	0.346	13.79	16.60	-0.72
Santana	Johan	18	18	121.0	2.75	3.02	9.30	2.23	4.17	34.78	0.85	87.33	0.261	11.56	17.08	0.27
Shields	James	18	18	129.7	3.82	3.06	8.05	1.32	6.11	42.37	1.20	75.17	0.267	12.42	14.74	-0.76
Peavy	Jacob	18	18	119.0	2.19	3.14	9.45	2.57	3.68	45.83	1.42	80.44	0.294	2.75	16.99	0.95
Smoltz	John	17	17	105.7	3.07	3.16	8.18	1.87	4.36	43.08	1.37	80.40	0.319	7.89	18.77	0.09
Beckett	Josh	16	16	102.0	3.44	3.16	8.12	1.85	4.38	49.51	1.61	72.33	0.301	5.66	14.75	-0.28
Matsuzaka	Daisuke	18	18	119.7	3.84	3.18	9.25	2.86	3.24	37.95	1.05	75.25	0.307	8.70	20.18	-0.66
Bonderman	Jeremy	16	16	106.0	3.48	3.20	8.32	2.04	4.08	46.20	1.36	76.32	0.302	8.40	15.82	-0.28
Sabathia	Carsten	19	19	133.3	3.58	3.21	8.03	1.22	6.61	42.75	1.23	76.98	0.326	9.93	16.75	-0.37
Rodriguez	Wandy	17	17	104.7	3.87	3.24	7.74	2.24	3.46	42.81	1.28	74.41	0.290	10.00	17.25	-0.63
Escobar	Kelvim	16	16	107.3	3.19	3.28	7.38	2.60	2.84	47.12	1.48	74.83	0.289	5.31	15.06	0.09
Lilly	Ted	18	18	112.7	3.67	3.28	7.83	2.16	3.63	34.65	0.89	74.21	0.272	8.78	16.72	-0.39
Young	Christopher	17	17	103.7	2.00	3.29	8.59	3.13	2.75	31.32	0.72	82.88	0.260	2.16	16.37	1.29
Burnett	Allen	15	15	94.0	4.31	3.30	10.15	3.83	2.65	52.23	1.79	77.57	0.276	18.75	14.98	-1.01
Vazquez	Javier	17	17	116.0	3.65	3.33	8.38	2.02	4.15	39.69	0.97	75.47	0.273	10.27	14.77	-0.32
Lincecum	Timothy	12	12	72.0	4.63	3.33	9.88	4.00	2.47	43.52	1.24	66.08	0.287	9.72	15.54	-1.30
Sheets	Ben	18	18	116.0	3.41	3.40	6.75	1.94	3.48	36.68	0.96	79.22	0.277	8.81	18.48	-0.01
Webb	Brandon	19	19	131.0	3.37	3.42	7.69	3.23	2.38	58.25	2.97	76.87	0.299	11.11	17.01	0.05
Hendrickson	Mark	21	10	78.3	4.02	3.45	7.35	2.64	2.78	43.21	1.52	74.66	0.311	11.84	20.16	-0.57
Haren	Dan	19	19	129.3	2.30	3.45	7.03	2.23	3.16	43.27	1.21	84.91	0.238	7.14	15.04	1.15
Hill	Richard	17	17	104.0	3.81	3.46	8.31	2.77	3.00	34.93	0.92	80.97	0.257	14.75	21.92	-0.35
Meche	Gil	19	19	122.0	3.54	3.48	6.49	2.66	2.44	49.74	1.82	79.13	0.301	10.57	16.67	-0.06

Thoughts about the data

A couple of guys really stick out when we look at the Top 25 list.

Wandy Rodriguez comes in at No. 13. Definitely a guy who should be owned in every league. I picked him up in all of my shallower leagues a few days ago when I saw these numbers. Could regress a little, but so far he’s been great.

Mark Hendrickson at No. 22 surprised me a bit as well. I didn’t realize how good he’s been this year.

Despite the worst GB% and GB/FB on the list, Chris Young still manages to show up in the Top 20. I expected him to come up somewhere between 20-25. He’s the second luckiest shallow league guy though, so if you can grab someone like Cole Hamels or Jake Peavy (or really any number of guys ahead of him) you should do it.

With the control troubles Tim Lincecum has been having, I didn’t think he’d make the cut. He comes in at No. 18, the only guy on the list with a BB/9 north of 4.00. Play up the control issues to his owner. Even with a high BB/9 his LIPS is good. If it improves, look out.

As I said last week, while Johan Santana and Jake Peavy are getting a little lucky, they are still a couple of the best pitchers in baseball. You should hang onto them unless you get an amazing deal.

While Randy Johnson sits atop the LIPS leaders list, his 11.44 K/9 might not be sustainable. His control is good, though, and pitching in the National League, he should end up somewhere in the Post All-Star Break version of this list.

Chad Gaudin and Brad Penny are the luckiest guys currently owned in most mixed leagues. Penny’s peripherals are OK, but Gaudin needs to be traded… now.

I’m very happy to see Mark Buehrle re-sign with the White Sox. If my Mets traded for him, I’d be very upset. He’s been getting pretty lucky, and a move to a more pitcher-friendly park is now out of the question. Time to deal him.

I love Jamie Shields. One would be hard-pressed to find a better place on any list than squeezed between Jake Peavy and Johan Santana. If his owner is worrying over his seemingly poor performances lately, get him. He can help lead your team to some serious pitching points.

Don’t get Steve Trachsel. He’s near the top of the luckiest list, and he has the lowest LIPS (6.28) of any pitcher in our query. You should probably take any pitcher over him.

Final thoughts

Just because a guy is on the “unlucky” list doesn’t mean you should trade for him. It just means that his stock should be higher than it’s at now. A guy can have a 5.00 ERA and be lucky because it should be 7.00. Doesn’t mean you should pursue him for your team. I posted peripheral and luck stats next to each guy to for quick reference. If a guy is on the lucky list, make sure the place he should bounce back to is somewhere good.

The same thing goes for the “lucky” list. A guy might be getting lucky but still be a great pitcher. You might be able to get an even greater pitcher for him, but don’t feel he has to be moved. Check all of his numbers and make an educated decision.

I plan on running something similar to this soon, only with WHIP. Might come tomorrow if I can get everything in order. That’s all for now!