RBIs and MVP
I’ve been thinking a lot about Pavlov and his dog lately, and it’s beginning to worry me.
All that salivating—sheesh! Aside from the sanitary issues, there’s something depressing about an ongoing knee-jerk reaction that continues even without the application of the doctor’s mallet.
This is what came to mind when I read Dave Studenmund’s intriguing and creative Season Leverage Index. Dave handles math the way I terrorize a dependent clause, and what he’s doing is extremely inventive.
There is an assumption underlying Dave’s work, however, that needs to be addressed. For nearly 30 years now, one of the primary tenets of sabermetrics has been the overrated nature of runs batted in (and please don’t call ‘em “ribbies,” makes me think of rib-eye, and that just involuntarily makes my mouth water).
Yes, they are overrated. And yes, there has been a tendency to award Most Valuable Player awards to hitters with league-leading RBI totals.
There has been enough hue and cry on this topic to travel through interstellar space and convince the Klingons that (a) there is life on earth and (b) that earthlings are a bunch of undifferentiated whiners.
While Dave doesn’t focus so much on RBIs in what he wrote, I think this issue has been ingrained enough that it has a kind of subliminal effect on “sabermetric discourse.”
As noted, Dave’s idea is exceptionally clever. He wants to use the method to create a dialogue with a group of baseball beat writers who made NL RBI leader Ryan Howard the second-place finisher in the 2008 NL MVP voting.
While that is a worthwhile strategy (and I’d love to read some of the transcripts of those interactions), two things here need to be pointed out.
First, the writers didn’t make Howard the MVP this year. He finished second. Even though there were certainly MVP candidates who deserved to place higher than Howard on the ballot, the fact is that the writers did get it right. They gave the award to Albert Pujols, who was the NL’s best player by almost every conceivable measure.
Second, lurking somewhere within Dave’s purpose is an echo of that long-standing squabble over RBIs and MVPs that assumes the problem is the same as it was 30, or even 20, years ago.
Then a bell rang in my head. As I reached for a napkin to wipe my mouth, I suddenly knew that it was time to crack open the reference books—er, rather, go to Sean Forman’s baseball-reference.com—and find out if this issue is still a matter of, er, “reflexive” truth.
But before I provide the results of the study, perhaps it would be appropriate if you took a “knee-jerk quiz” on the subject. Take a moment to answer these five questions before proceeding further:
1—What percentage of MVP winners (1931 to 2008) led the league in RBI?
2—Does this percentage vary much by league?
3—How many times did this MVP/RBI correlation happen in both leagues during the same year?
4—In what years did No. 3 occur?
5—Has this percentage varied over time or has it remained constant? Is it higher or lower in the last 20 years (let’s say 1990 to the present) than the overall average?
Yes, I realize that No. 4 is a question that only the “rain man” variant of stathead is going to rattle off, but take a crack at it anyway. The answers to all of these questions will be found in various places in the text below, along with a table of results and a few other related facts. Take the quiz first. When the bell rings, you can proceed…
***
Here are the numbers.
Since 1931, when the MVP award as we know it came into being, there have been 156 selections. Fifty-four of these, or just under 35 percent, have been awarded to the player leading the league in RBI.
The figures are very close for the two leagues: 36 percent in the AL (28), exactly one-third in the NL (26).
What’s most interesting, though, is how these percentages have changed over time.
Years NL Pct AL Pct 1931-55 5 20% 8 32% 1956-89 17 50% 16 47% 1990-present 4 21% 4 21%
As the chart shows, the first quarter-century of the MVP voting (1931-1955) gave the plaque to RBI leaders just over one-fourth of the time (13 out of 50, or 26 percent).
Over the next 34 years (1956-1989), however, the correlation of RBI/MVP that created the howling hounds of “stathead backlash” was, in fact, there for every sore eye to see.
Just under half of the MVP awards went to RBI leaders in that time span. Only twice do we find a gap greater than a year in which no RBI leader won in either league: 1962-63, and 1975-76.
Starting in 1990, however, all this changed. Since 1998, when RBI leaders Sammy Sosa and Juan Gonzalez were named MVPs, there have been only two MVP/RBI alignments: Ryan Howard in 2006 and Alex Rodriguez in 2007.
So that means that, over the past 10 years, the BBWAA has brought the percentage down to just 10 percent.
Overall since 1990, the MVP/RBI correlation is down to just a tad over 20 percent.
For some reason, however, this good news doesn’t seem to be either widely known or, for that matter, something that the number-crunching community wants to feel good about. Sure, it could simply a fluke—go ahead and throw that knee-jerk “small sample size” issue at me. Don’t forget, I was the first sabermetrician with an asbestos suit, and I’ll still—cough, cough—be here after every last one of you is floating in your own saliva.
OK, OK, sorry: all that ringing in my ears just got too much to take… anyway, odds are that the BBWAA may have learned something as a result of all this dogged effort to separate RBI from MVP. Both the AL and NL had the longest streak of years with no MVP/RBI connection in the last decade: eight years (AL: 1999-2006) and seven years (NL: 1999-2005). Both of these represent the longest span of “RBI/MVP separation” in either league over the history of the MVP award.
While continuing a dialogue is a good idea—and Dave’s method to capture the mindset of those with various types of “selection bias” entering into their modes of assessment is downright inspired—I think it’s worth considering that we simply look at these results and take a moment to bask in our success.
It’s a success we seem to have been denying ourselves, for reasons known only to the man behind the screen who keeps ringing that damned RBI/MVP bell.
***
A complete list of the RBI leaders and their MVP finishes can be seen in the table below. Look out, it’s a big one.
A few fun facts:
In nine years the MVP has gone to the RBI leader in both leagues: 1941, 1953, 1958, 1964, 1967, 1969, 1972, 1987 and 1998.
Seven players leading in RBI have finished 15th or lower in the MVP voting: Nick Etten (15th, 1945), Vern Stephens (24th, 1950), Gus Zernial (20th, 1951), Ray Boone (16th, 1955), Harmon Killebrew (21st, 1971), Preston Wilson (16th, 2003), Vinny Castilla (23rd, 2004).
The player in the MVP voting period (1931 to the present) with the highest league-leading RBI total not winning the MVP award: Lou Gehrig in 1931 (184 RBI, finished second). Hank Greenberg led with 183 RBI in 1935 and finished third. Highest total post-WWII: Manny Ramirez (165 RBI in 1999, finished third).
Twenty-eight hitters have led in RBI and finished second in the MVP voting, 16 in the NL (earliest: Chuck Klein, 1931; latest: Ryan Howard, 2008), and 12 in the AL (first: the aforementioned Gehrig; latest: David Ortiz, 2005).
References & Resources
Following is a complete list of all league RBI leaders during the MVP years, and how they finished in MVP voting:
Year National League RBI MVP
2008 Ryan Howard* (PHI) 146 2
2007 Matt Holliday (COL) 137 2
2006 Ryan Howard* (PHI) 149 1
2005 Andruw Jones (ATL) 128 2
2004 Vinny Castilla (COL) 131 23
2003 Preston Wilson (COL) 141 16
2002 Lance Berkman# (HOU) 128 3
2001 Sammy Sosa (CHC) 160 2
2000 Todd Helton* (COL) 147 5
1999 Mark McGwire (STL) 147 5
1998 Sammy Sosa (CHC) 158 1
1997 Andres Galarraga (COL) 140 7
1996 Andres Galarraga (COL) 150 6
1995 Dante Bichette (COL) 128 2
1994 Jeff Bagwell (HOU) 116 1
1993 Barry Bonds* (SFG) 123 1
1992 Darren Daulton* (PHI) 109 6
1991 Howard Johnson# (NYM) 117 5
1990 Matt Williams (SFG) 122 6
1989 Kevin Mitchell (SFG) 125 1
1988 Will Clark* (SFG) 109 5
1987 Andre Dawson (CHC) 137 1
1986 Mike Schmidt+ (PHI) 119 1
1985 Dave Parker* (CIN) 125 2
1984 Gary Carter+ (MON) 106 14
Mike Schmidt+ (PHI) 106 7
1983 Dale Murphy (ATL) 121 1
1982 Dale Murphy (ATL) 109 1
Al Oliver* (MON) 109 3
1981 Mike Schmidt+ (PHI) 91 1
1980 Mike Schmidt+ (PHI) 121 1
1979 Dave Winfield+ (SDP) 118 3
1978 George Foster (CIN) 120 6
1977 George Foster (CIN) 149 1
1976 George Foster (CIN) 121 2
1975 Greg Luzinski (PHI) 120 2
1974 Johnny Bench+ (CIN) 129 4
1973 Willie Stargell*+ (PIT 119 2
1972 Johnny Bench+ (CIN) 125 1
1971 Joe Torre (STL) 137 1
1970 Johnny Bench+ (CIN) 148 1
1969 Willie McCovey*+ (SFG) 126 1
1968 Willie McCovey*+ (SFG) 105 3
1967 Orlando Cepeda+ (STL) 111 1
1966 Hank Aaron+ (ATL) 127 8
1965 Deron Johnson (CIN) 130 4
1964 Ken Boyer (STL) 119 1
1963 Hank Aaron+ (MLN) 130 3
1962 Tommy Davis (LAD) 153 3
1961 Orlando Cepeda+ (SFG) 142 2
1960 Hank Aaron+ (MLN) 126 11
1959 Ernie Banks+ (CHC) 143 1
1958 Ernie Banks+ (CHC) 129 1
1957 Hank Aaron+ (MLN) 132 1
1956 Stan Musial*+ (STL) 109 9
1955 Duke Snider*+ (BRO) 136 2
1954 Ted Kluszewski* (CIN) 141 2
1953 Roy Campanella+ (BRO) 142 1
1952 Hank Sauer (CHC) 121 1
1951 Monte Irvin+ (NYG) 121 3
1950 Del Ennis (PHI) 126 4
1949 Ralph Kiner+ (PIT) 127 4
1948 Stan Musial*+ (STL) 131 1
1947 Johnny Mize*+ (NYG) 138 3
1946 Enos Slaughter*+ (STL) 130 3
1945 Dixie Walker* (BRO) 124 9
1944 Bill Nicholson* (CHC) 122 2
1943 Bill Nicholson* (CHC) 128 3
1942 Johnny Mize*+ (NYG) 110 5
1941 Dolph Camilli* (BRO) 120 1
1940 Johnny Mize*+ (STL) 137 2
1939 Frank McCormick (CIN) 128 4
1938 Joe Medwick+ (STL) 122 11
1937 Joe Medwick+ (STL) 154 1
1936 Joe Medwick+ (STL) 138 4
1935 Wally Berger (BSN) 130 6
1934 Mel Ott*+ (NYG) 135 5
1933 Chuck Klein*+ (PHI) 120 2
1932 Don Hurst* (PHI) 143 7
1931 Chuck Klein*+ (PHI) 121 2
Year American League RBI MVP
2008 Josh Hamilton* (TEX) 130 7
2007 Alex Rodriguez (NYY) 156 1
2006 David Ortiz* (BOS) 137 3
2005 David Ortiz* (BOS) 148 2
2004 Miguel Tejada (BAL) 150 5
2003 Carlos Delgado* (TOR) 145 2
2002 Alex Rodriguez (TEX) 142 2
2001 Bret Boone (SEA) 141 3
2000 Edgar Martinez (SEA) 145 6
1999 Manny Ramirez (CLE) 165 3
1998 Juan Gonzalez (TEX) 157 1
1997 Ken Griffey* (SEA) 147 1
1996 Albert Belle (CLE) 148 3
1995 Albert Belle (CLE) 126 2
Mo Vaughn* (BOS) 126 1
1994 Kirby Puckett+ (MIN) 112 7
1993 Albert Belle (CLE) 129 7
1992 Cecil Fielder (DET) 124 9
1991 Cecil Fielder (DET) 133 2
1990 Cecil Fielder (DET) 132 2
1989 Ruben Sierra# (TEX) 119 2
1988 Jose Canseco (OAK) 124 1
1987 George Bell (TOR) 134 1
1986 Joe Carter (CLE) 121 9
1985 Don Mattingly* (NYY) 145 1
1984 Tony Armas (BOS) 123 7
1983 Cecil Cooper* (MIL) 126 5
Jim Rice (BOS) 126 4
1982 Hal McRae (KCR) 133 4
1981 Eddie Murray#+ (BAL) 78 5
1980 Cecil Cooper* (MIL) 122 5
1979 Don Baylor (CAL) 139 1
1978 Jim Rice (BOS) 139 1
1977 Larry Hisle (MIN) 119 12
1976 Lee May (BAL) 109 9
1975 George Scott (MIL) 109 8
1974 Jeff Burroughs (TEX) 118 1
1973 Reggie Jackson*+ (OAK) 117 1
1972 Dick Allen (CHW) 113 1
1971 Harmon Killebrew+ (MIN 119 21
1970 Frank Howard (WAS) 126 5
1969 Harmon Killebrew+ (MIN 140 1
1968 Ken Harrelson (BOS) 109 3
1967 Carl Yastrzemski*+ (BO 121 1
1966 Frank Robinson+ (BAL) 122 1
1965 Rocky Colavito (CLE) 108 5
1964 Brooks Robinson+ (BAL) 118 1
1963 Dick Stuart (BOS) 118 13
1962 Harmon Killebrew+ (MIN 126 3
1961 Roger Maris* (NYY) 142 1
1960 Roger Maris* (NYY) 112 1
1959 Jackie Jensen (BOS) 112 10
1958 Jackie Jensen (BOS) 122 1
1957 Roy Sievers (WSH) 114 3
1956 Mickey Mantle#+ (NYY) 130 1
1955 Ray Boone (DET) 116 16
Jackie Jensen (BOS) 116 10
1954 Larry Doby*+ (CLE) 126 2
1953 Al Rosen (CLE) 145 1
1952 Al Rosen (CLE) 105 10
1951 Gus Zernial (TOT) 129 20
1950 Walt Dropo (BOS) 144 6
Vern Stephens (BOS) 144 24
1949 Vern Stephens (BOS) 159 7
Ted Williams*+ (BOS) 159 1
1948 Joe DiMaggio+ (NYY) 155 2
1947 Ted Williams*+ (BOS) 114 2
1946 Hank Greenberg+ (DET) 127 8
1945 Nick Etten* (NYY) 111 15
1944 Vern Stephens (SLB) 109 3
1943 Rudy York (DET) 118 3
1942 Ted Williams*+ (BOS) 137 2
1941 Joe DiMaggio+ (NYY) 125 1
1940 Hank Greenberg+ (DET) 150 1
1939 Ted Williams*+ (BOS) 145 4
1938 Jimmie Foxx+ (BOS) 175 1
1937 Hank Greenberg+ (DET) 183 3
1936 Hal Trosky* (CLE) 162 10
1935 Hank Greenberg+ (DET) 170 1
1934 Lou Gehrig*+ (NYY) 165 5
1933 Jimmie Foxx+ (PHA) 163 1
1932 Jimmie Foxx+ (PHA) 169 1
1931 Lou Gehrig*+ (NYY) 184 2
* left-handed batter
# switch hitter
+ Hall of Fame