The bad century
As many (including myself) have noted, this year marks the 100th anniversary of the last Cubs team to win it all. A century of futility—that’s about as pathetic an “accomplishment” as you will ever see in the sporting world.
When looking at that dismal record, it’s natural to wonder what were the biggest botched moments in that period. One way to do it would be endless personal pontificating. I’m pretty good at that, but today I want to try a different approach. Let’s do things more a classically sabermetric way and run a study.
Better yet, how about someone else run a study for me? Elsewhere on this crazy little thing called the internet is a website called the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog currently run by SG. Among his other talents, SG has constructed one of the most fun databases on the planet. He can plug in 28 teams from any year in baseball history and run 1,000 season simulations for them. It just takes him a few days.
Fortunately for me, he thought the idea of doing 1,000 sims of the best Cubs teams since 1908 sounded interesting, and he agreed to do it. He just needed me to pick the 28 teams. It turns out, much to the surprise of some of you I’m sure, that yes, there really have been more than 28 good Cubs teams in that time. They were actually a very good franchise until WWII, and have had some occasional moments since then.
The obvious approach would be to go with the best winning percentages. Clearly, won-loss record is by far the No. 1 factor coming into play here, but it’s not the only one.
While it’s impossible to avoid some redundancy when tabbing 28 seasons out of 100, I want to represent the different eras as best I can. I’d rather have their best season from 1947-66 rather than their worst of the 1930s, even if the latter is a bit better. The last batch of seasons is just to fill out the bracket of 28, so let’s spice up the selection.
The teams
With that in mind, here are the teams I submitted:
The 1909, 1910, 1911, 1912 and 1913 Cubs: As noted, it’s impossible to avoid redundancy here. These are the Tinker-Evers-Chance Cubs. They won the pennant in 1910, but got trounced in the Series. The won 104 games in 1909, but the Pirates won 110. They remained good, but in decline, afterwards.
The 1918 Cubs: Won the pennant in a war-shortened season but got run over by a Boston Red Sox rotation led by Babe Ruth.
The 1923 Cubs: This was their best team with Pete Alexander pitching full-time. Better seasons are left out, but this one is bit more distinctive.
The 1928, 1929, and 1930 Cubs: The McCarthy Era in Chicago. They had probably the best outfield in team history with Riggs Stephenson, Kiki Cuyler and Hack Wilson, who had 191 RBIs in 1930. The won the pennant in 1929 and lost two games in the World Series in heartbreaking fashion.
The 1932, 1935, 1937, and 1938 Cubs: There isn’t a really significant break between any Cubs team from 1928-38. Then again, only Gabby Hartnett and Charlie Root survived the entire period. Bill Lee and Lon Warneke were the main pitchers in the 1930s. The outfield gradually broke up, with new bats like Billy Herman aiding the team.
They won the pennants in 1932, 1935, and 1938. They faced historic dynamos in the ’32 and ’38 Fall Classics, but the 1935 team frankly should have beaten the Tigers. The 1937 squad actually had a better winning record than the 1932 or 1938 editions.
The 1945 and 1946 Cubs: They won their last pennant in 1945, and stretched the World Series to seven games. The 1946 Cubs had the franchise’s last winning season for a very long time.
The 1952, 1959, and 1963 Cubs: By winning percentage, none of these teams belongs, especially the 1959 Cubs, which actually had a losing record. These were the most interesting squads in their two decades of torpor between WWII and the Vietnam war.
Rather sadly, the 82-80 1963 Cubs were the best team in that stretch. The 1952 Cubs went .500 led by Hank Sauer’s big 37-homer season. (Once upon a time, kids, that was an impressive achievement). The ’59 Cubs are the 28th team in this bunch. They’re here to get a season from Ernie Banks’ prime in.
The 1969 and 1971 Cubs: The ’69 squad led almost all year before the Mets blew them away down the stretch. According to Win Shares, the 1970 team. .. well, apparently I confused them with the 1970 squad, which had a fantastic starting rotation. That’s a mortifying error, but either way, it’s just a team filling out the bracket.
The 1977 Cubs: Going purely by winning percentage, they don’t deserve to be here as they went 81-81. However, the Little Blue Machine actually played at a frantic 61-41 pace into late summer. Then Bruce Sutter’s arm gave out. And that, ladies and gents, is how the 1970s fireman started becoming the modern closer.
The 1984, 1989, and 1998 Cubs: They all went to the postseason. They are also three of the only five squads with winning records the franchise put together from 1973-2000. It’s been a long century. Here are the clubs I remember. Purely based on my own personal beliefs, I’d say the 1984 squad was the best, and 1998 the least talented.
The 2003 and 2004 Cubs: Well, after 30-plus years, 1969 is no longer the great “What if?” moment in Cubs history. The 2003 team came achingly close to the pennant, and the 2004 squad was probably even more talented.
The 2007 Cubs: Despite starting the year 22-31, they rallied and won a postseason berth. Incredibly, five of the last nine Cubs teams with winning records have made the postseason. Not-so-incredibly, those nine good seasons have come over 35 years.
The results
That’s the teams. How about the results? To make it easier to read, I’ll break it into two divisions: up to 1938 and since then. This gives their record, average runs scored and allowed, and also how many times each squad had the best record in the simulations. Due to ties, that number isn’t always an integer. Finally, you’ll have their highest win total in a simulation.
So … what was the best team of the last 100 years? Here are the older teams:
Team W L RF RA #1 High 1910 93 69 712 589 348.5 116 1909 89 73 624 553 116.3 108 1912 87 75 671 617 65.5 107 1935 86 76 682 621 55.5 105 1929 85 77 674 633 46.3 102 1911 83 79 634 603 33 104 1930 83 79 636 612 27 105 1937 82 80 676 662 11 103 1918 81 81 584 566 14 102 1913 81 81 700 691 10.3 100 1928 80 82 594 593 6.8 98 1923 78 84 657 680 3.3 99 1938 77 85 601 629 0.7 95 1932 76 86 562 601 2 95
And the newer models:
Team W L RS RA #1 High 2004 88 74 636 586 114.2 110 1945 86 76 639 585 66.2 106 2003 84 78 599 590 34.3 106 1998 82 80 670 686 16.3 106 1989 81 81 679 671 15 99 1984 79 83 658 681 4 96 2007 79 83 596 611 4.8 99 1952 77 85 588 625 1 95 1969 77 85 616 656 1 103 1977 76 86 583 664 1.3 95 1946 75 87 630 686 1 92 1971 75 87 621 685 0 94 1959 74 88 581 652 0 95 1963 74 88 593 663 0.5 97
So the 1910 Cubs came in first. Well, like all Cubs teams from that era, they did a fantastic job preventing the other team from scoring. Three Finger Brown had one of his best seasons, going 25-13 with a 1.86 ERA while leading the league in saves.
While the staff allowed the fewest runs in the league, the offense scored more runs per game than any other team in baseball. Not bad considering they played in a pitcher’s park. None of the hitters had a great season, but pretty much everyone had a good season. That’s classic Cubs ball from back then. Of the 11 with at least 100 plate appearances, nine had an OPS+ of 100 or better. The low was 88.
In the World Series, the A’s battered them. The Cubs led for about five innings while getting outscored 35-15. It wasn’t so much the Cubs underachieving as it was that good an A’s squad. They won three titles and four pennants in five years. That’s the best stretch Connie Mack ever had.
The 2004 Cubs are the best squad the team has put together since the days of Johnny Evers. That’s not terribly surprising. Sure, Kerry Wood and Mark Prior combined for only 43 starts, but Carlos Zambrano had what’s still the best season of his career, as did Matt Clement. Their other starter was some guy named Maddux. Meanwhile, almost every regular position player gave them a good season.
There are many reasons to be mournful for that team’s failure down the stretch. I’ll just point to one. Late in the year, Prior came off the DL and pitched up to his lofty potential. In his final three starts, he allowed two runs in 24.2 innings. In his last game, he struck out 16 in nine innings while allowing only four base runners.
Had they made the postseason, they would’ve had a dangerously effective Mark Prior on their side. They didn’t and he has never been as good since then.
What’s also surprising at these results is how poorly the 1932 and 1938 pennant winners did. Well, the 1938 team isn’t so surprising. They were a team that took it when no one was that good in the NL. I have no perfect explanation for 1932, accept to note that they did exceed their Pythagorean record by four games.
The other half: the worst teams
Maybe it’s the masochist in men, but I’m also curious to see what the worst Cubs team over the last 100 years was. Fortunately, SG wasn’t doing anything else with his super simulation machine so…
I used the same basic guidelines to choosing teams. There is increased redundancy because the 1947-66 era dominates the terrible years like no other stretch in the previous simulation. Plus they’ve had sustained periods (long, long ago) of very good teams. Here are the squads:
The 1916, 1921, and 1925 Cubs: These are the only really bad teams prior to the Homer in the Gloamin’. The 1925 season was their only last-place finish from 1876-1947.
The 1940 and 1942 Cubs: The former was their first losing season in almost 20 years. The latter was their worst year of the WWII era.
The 1948, 1949, 1950, 1951, 1953, 1954, 1956, 1957, 1960, 1961, 1962, and 1966 Cubs: Describing each one of these teams would be as boring as they were bad. Let’s put it this way, in 130-plus years of frequently forgettable baseball, the Cubs have only had 16 seasons where its winning percentage was worse than .418. 10 came in this period. Plus they went exactly .418 in 1950, and .422 three years later.
The 1974, 1980, and 1981 Cubs: The worst years in the late Wrigley period. In one 162-games stretch from June 6, 1980 to June 4, 1981, they went 52-110. That’s their worst period ever.
The 1983 and 1985 Cubs: The former actually nearly scored as many runs as they allowed, but still lost over 90 games. The latter was in first place in June, but then their entire starting rotation went down with injury.
The 1994, 1997, 1999, 2000, 2002, and 2006 Cubs: Sure, any team can have a bunch of bad seasons with a low payroll, but the Tribune-era Cubs have actually spent a decent chunk of money turning out terrible teams. That’s a mark of distinction.
Let’s get it over with. Twos wrinkles: the column on the right gives their fewest wins in any sim, and will rank them from worst to best. Here are the biggest blechs of the blighted. Older half:
Team W L RF RA #1 Fewest CHN21 75 87 610 654 1 54 CHN49 76 86 576 619 3 57 CHN51 76 86 589 626 1 55 CHN25 77 86 638 673 1 57 CHN48 79 84 601 618 4 59 CHN50 79 83 620 635 5 61 CHN56 79 83 586 601 4 59 CHN53 81 82 645 653 9 58 CHN57 82 80 619 620 15 64 CHN42 83 79 695 664 16 66 CHN60 83 79 637 622 31 61 CHN54 85 78 639 606 34 66 CHN16 88 75 738 673 81 69 CHN40 90 72 692 602 183 68
Not as old:
Team W L RF RA #1 Fewest CHN66 74 88 645 698 0 57 CHN81 76 86 631 674 2 56 CHN97 76 86 601 650 2 55 CHN62 77 85 610 646 1 57 CHN99 77 85 621 654 2 56 CHN00 80 82 635 645 7 58 CHN80 80 82 635 647 3 62 CHN74 81 81 686 689 10 57 CHN85 83 80 697 699 14 64 CHN06 83 79 631 624 15 65 CHN94 83 79 633 626 19 64 CHN61 85 78 679 647 35 64 CHN83 90 72 748 667 164 71 CHN02 93 69 682 588 339 80
The 1966 Cubs do the worst. Makes sense, as they lost 103 games in real life. It gives one a whole new depreciation for the 1921 squad as well.
Summing up
One interesting thing is that the Cubs never really had a sure-fire squad in all this time. They had plenty of very good teams, but never one real “A-ha!” they that should have done. Their best came along at bad moments. The 1909-10 teams had better Pirates and A’s teams to contend with. Sure, the 2004 squad should have made the playoffs, but the Cards won 105 and the Red Sox were baseball freaking demigods in the World Series.
Alternately, while they’ve had their troubles, they’ve almost never been truly gruesome. The franchise has lost 100 games only twice.