Checking in on the Florida State and Texas Leagues
The All-Star games are already underway in the minor leagues, so this is as good a time as any to do some mid-season assessments. Over the next three weeks, I’ll review some of the best and worst performances in each of the full-season minor leagues. We’ll start today with the Advanced Single-A Florida State League and the Double-A Texas League.
Florida State League
The Florida State League (FSL) is a 12-team league that is home to the advanced Single-A teams for eight National League and four American League organizations. The average age for both pitchers and hitters in the FSL is about 23-years-old. Prospects in this league are usually at least two years away from contributing to the parent club. The Florida State League has a reputation for being a pitcher-friendly league, and that’s as true as ever this year. The league RA (runs allowed per 9 innings) is down to 4.52 this year, after hovering near the 4.70 mark for the past two seasons.
The West All-Stars defeated the East All-Stars by a score of 7-4 on Saturday. Mets prospect Ambiorix Concepcion hit a three-run home run for the East All-Stars, but the West All-Stars pitchers stole the show early in the game. Twins prospect Kevin Slowey and Reds prospect Homer Bailey struck out the first six batters of the game for the West All-Stars. Blue Jays prospect Ryan Patterson won the home run derby contest and later picked up 3 RBIs for the West All-Stars.
The following lists represents the top ten pitching performances (ranked by fielding independent ERA) among pitchers with at least 60 innings in the Florida State League this year.
ORG AGE PLAYER IP W L H K BB HR ERA FIP-ERA Min 21 Kevin Slowey 81.2 4 1 48 92 7 2 1.10 1.71 0 runs allowed in June Mil 21 Yovani Gallardo 73.0 6 3 51 100 20 4 1.97 2.13 33 K in last 23 IP Fla 21 Jose Garcia 77.0 6 2 60 69 16 3 1.87 2.63 Promoted to Southern League Tor 21 Jesse Litsch 75.2 5 6 80 69 7 5 3.57 2.68 2.67 ERA away from Dunedin Det 20 Jair Jurrjens 73.2 5 0 53 59 10 4 2.08 2.84 Chc 20 Sean Gallagher 78.1 4 0 75 80 21 5 2.30 3.03 Promoted to Southern League Stl 23 Blake Hawksworth 76.2 6 2 68 45 19 0 2.47 3.05 Tor 23 Eric Fowler 73.1 5 5 77 59 22 4 3.80 3.25 Fla 20 Gabriel Hernandez 79.2 7 3 77 79 22 6 4.07 3.26 Cin 20 Homer Bailey 70.2 3 5 49 79 22 6 3.31 3.26 4.74 ERA in May
Now, let’s take a look at the most productive hitters in the Florida State League. Gross Production Average (GPA) is a simple rate statistic that properly weights OBP and SLG and scales it in a way that resembles a batting average. The following GPA figures are not park-adjusted, but I will complement the cumulative numbers with information about possible park effects where appropriate.
ORG AGE PLAYER POS AB H BB SO HR GPA Chc 23 Jake Fox C 249 78 27 49 16 .316 Only hitting .239 away from home park Stl 24 Terry Evans OF 238 74 20 50 15 .305 Chc 24 Sam Fuld OF 264 89 30 40 3 .300 Chc 25 Matt Craig 1B 221 65 33 64 8 .300 30-for-37 in SB attempts Nyy 22 Brett Gardner OF 232 75 43 51 0 .299 Leads league in OBP Tor 24 Dustin Majewski OF 210 57 47 37 7 .296 Only hitting .226 away from home Det 23 Jeff Larish 1B 239 60 38 59 12 .287 Phi 24 Brian Burgamy OF 210 58 37 57 7 .285 Turns 25 years-old next week Tor 23 Ryan Patterson OF 262 78 16 49 14 .284 9 of 14 HR at home park Tor 24 Ryan Klosterman SS 241 68 18 62 11 .284 GPA of .256 away from Dunedin
All Star Most Likely to Succeed
It’s never a good idea to identify a young pitcher as “most likely” to do anything, but Yovani Gallardo has the stuff to succeed and his performance has been outstanding this year. He flirted with a no-hitter a couple weeks ago and has struck out 10 or more batters in each of his last three starts. The Florida State League is a relatively friendly environment for pitchers, but it’s uncommon for 20-year-old pitchers to strike out 12 batters per 9 innings in any league.
All Star Most Likely to Struggle
20-year-old Charlie Fermaint started in right field for the East All-Stars and stole a couple bases during the game. Fermaint has good speed and impressive tools all around, but he has not demonstrated much power this year, and most of his value has been tied to his .293 batting average. Unfortunately for Fermaint, he probably won’t be able to maintain that high batting average unless he suddenly stops striking out in 30% of his plate appearances. I expect less production from Fermaint in the second half of the season.
Pleasant Surprise of the First Half
A few months ago, Jose Garcia was relatively unnoticed behind a number of high-profile prospects in the re-stocked Florida Marlins system. He spent his first three seasons of professional baseball in the Dominican Summer League and was expected to return to Single-A Greensboro this year. Instead, he tore through the Florida State League and was promoted to the Double-A Southern League earlier this month. He has only allowed one earned run in his first 12 innings against Double-A competition.
Disappointment of the First Half
Minnesota’s Trevor Plouffe, a former first rounder, is hitting .207 with no home runs for the Fort Myers Miracle this year. Plouffe had a terrible 2005 season at Beloit, and many people thought he would rebound and re-establish himself as a top shortstop prospect this year. That has not happened, and in the meantime the Twins are giving him more starts at third base, where his bat looks even worse. At 20 years of age, however, Plouffe is still far too young to give up on.
The Texas League
The Texas League is the smallest of the three Double-A leagues. There are only eight teams in the Texas League, and the average player is 25 years old. Although most Texas League players are at least another year away from getting a chance at a big league job, top prospects occasionally make the jump from Double-A to the major leagues.
The Texas League is usually the highest run-scoring environment at the Double-A level. This year’s league RA is at 4.8, just slightly under the run-scoring rates of the past two seasons.
The 70th annual Texas League All-Star Game will take place in Little Rock, Arkansas on Tuesday, June 20. The rosters are loaded with some of baseball’s top young hitters.
First, let’s take a look at some of the league’s top pitchers during the first half of the season:
ORG AGE PLAYER IP W L H K BB HR ERA FIP-ERA Col 22 Ubaldo Jimenez 68.1 8 2 48 76 37 2 2.63 3.22 1.67 ERA away from Tulsa Hou 22 Mitch Talbot 64.1 3 3 78 64 24 3 4.20 3.43 Hou 23 Matt Albers 86.1 8 2 70 65 31 4 2.08 3.61 1.14 ERA at Corpus Christi Col 27 Enmanuel Ulloa 71.2 4 2 68 66 22 6 3.39 3.65 Oak 26 Ray Aguilar 79.1 5 4 86 61 23 6 3.86 3.74 Hou 27 Joshua Miller 80.1 7 6 86 60 21 6 3.59 3.80 Oak 25 Benjamin Fritz 71.0 1 4 63 51 22 4 3.30 3.83 Sea 21 Yorman Bazardo 57.2 3 2 51 37 19 3 2.97 3.96 Elbow problems last month Hou 22 Juan Gutierrez 78.2 7 3 76 86 28 10 3.20 4.00 Leads league in strikeouts Stl 23 Mike Parisi 67.1 3 2 71 56 27 6 4.01 4.10
The top hitters are once again ranked according to Gross Production Average (GPA):
ORG AGE PLAYER POS AB H BB SO HR GPA Stl 28 Rico Washington 3B 228 75 49 47 13 .359 Sixth season in double-A Col 24 Joe Koshansky 1B 242 78 35 66 19 .338 Leads league with 19 HR Oak 25 Vasili Spanos 3B 242 78 29 42 8 .318 Kc 22 Alex Gordon 3B 226 69 34 46 9 .313 Hitting .231 with 0 HR in June Hou 26 J.R. House C 260 91 20 26 8 .310 Leads league with .350 batting average Laa 21 Brandon Wood SS 257 74 30 88 14 .305 Hitting .247 away from cozy Ray Winder Field Hou 25 Jorge Cortes OF 216 70 28 28 3 .304 Hou 25 Ben Zobrist SS 253 82 39 41 2 .303 Hou 23 Hunter Pence OF 268 79 21 55 17 .300 12 of 19 HR have been on the road Kc 20 Billy Butler OF 264 84 25 40 10 .296
All Star Most Likely to Succeed
Alex Gordon, the top pick from last year’s first-year player draft, didn’t play much professional baseball last summer while negotiating a signing bonus. That did not stop many people from declaring him one of baseball’s top hitting prospects. Gordon’s performance in the Arizona Fall League convinced the Royals to aggressively start him in Double-A Wichita this year, and in hindsight it looks like a sound decision. Gordon has hit for some power and demonstrated outstanding plate discipline, but don’t expect him in Kansas City this year. New general manager Dayton Moore believes players need Triple-A experience before succeeding in the big leagues, so Gordon and Wichita teammate Billy Butler will probably spend at least half a year in Omaha before contributing to the Royals sometime in 2007.
All Star Most Likely to Struggle
Houston Astros pitching prospect Matt Albers has an 8-2 record, a 2.08 ERA, and may earn the start for the Southern Division All-Stars on Tuesday. His component statistics, however, are inconsistent with his impressive results. His ERA will probably rise by another run or two, particularly if he earns a promotion to Round Rock. Albers has benefited a 1.47 ERA with no home runs allowed at spacious Whataburger Field in Corpus Christi, TX.
Pleasant Surprise of the First Half
Joe Koshansky went undrafted as a junior in college two years ago, and last year shocked the Rockies by hitting 36 home runs in the South Atlantic League. Many onlookers dismissed Koshansky and attributed the performance to his advanced age and hitter-friendly home park at Asheville. He’s warranting a second look in the Texas League, where he has a .410 OBP and has hit more home runs (19) than popular sluggers like Brandon Wood, Hunter Pence, and Alex Gordon. Tulsa’s Driller Stadium is a fine place to hit home runs, but Koshansky has actually hit more on the road this season.
Disappointment of the First Half
Rockies third base prospect Ian Stewart has a .251 batting average, .333 OBP, and .429 SLG for Tulsa this season. Stewart posted a .240 OBP for the month of May, but that may represent the low point of his career. He put together a 9-game hitting streak in June and will probably finish the season with something like a .350 OBP. A couple of wrist injuries from the 2005 season may be taking their toll on Stewart; he only has three home runs in a relatively hitter-friendly context this season. That’s an alarming result for a guy who many projected to be a middle-of-the-order bat for the Rockies lineup.