The Machine
Another game, another dominant Johan Santana performance.
In striking out 11 Texas Rangers while allowing just four hits and a single run in eight innings last night, Santana threw his 15th straight Quality Start, improved his record to 14-6, and dropped his ERA to 3.13.
Here’s the game-by-game breakdown of his incredible 15-game steak of Quality Starts (which I may print out, tape to my wall, and stare at for hours on end) …
DATE OPPONENT IP H ER BB SO HR W/L
6/9 Mets 7.0 6 1 0 10 1 W
6/15 Expos 8.0 3 2 0 7 1 W
6/20 Brewers 8.0 4 2 2 12 1 W
6/25 Brewers 7.0 4 1 0 10 1 W
7/1 White Sox 8.0 3 2 2 12 1 L
7/6 Royals 9.0 3 0 2 13 0 W
7/11 Tigers 8.0 2 2 2 11 1 L
7/17 Royals 8.0 1 0 4 9 0 W
7/22 Devil Rays 7.0 3 1 3 10 1
7/27 White Sox 6.0 2 1 2 6 1 W
8/1 Red Sox 8.0 2 2 1 12 2 W
8/7 A's 6.1 7 3 1 10 0 W
8/12 Mariners 7.0 7 1 2 7 1 W
8/18 Yankees 7.0 5 2 1 6 0 W
8/23 Rangers 8.0 4 1 1 11 1 W
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TOTAL 112.1 56 21 23 146 12 12-2
Over his last 15 starts, Santana is 12-2 with a 1.68 ERA (the Twins were shutout and scored one run in the two games he lost). He has averaged 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings while giving up an astounding 4.5 hits per nine innings, and has a 6.3-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Santana has also averaged 7.5 innings per start while going at least seven innings 13 times, and has pitched against five of the top six offenses in the American League.
However, as dominant as he has been during his 15 straight Quality Starts, Santana has given up his share of home runs. In fact, he’s held a team homerless in just four of those 15 games. Despite giving up a total of only 23 runs (21 earned) in those 112.1 innings pitched, Santana has allowed 12 homers. While giving up 12 homers in 112.1 innings is actually pretty good, that is definitely the one chink in Santana’s armor, although that sort of comes along with the territory when you’re an extreme fly ball pitcher in the Metrodome.
At this point, I think the only thing holding Santana back from being the favorite for the AL Cy Young award is Mark Mulder‘s 16 wins. That’s not to say Santana hasn’t been the best pitcher in the league this year, because he has, but rather that the voters will likely see Mulder’s win total as a lot more valuable than Santana’s significant edge in ERA, strikeouts, batting average against and any number of other areas.
While Santana continues to close the gap on Mulder in the wins department, he is also climbing up the Minnesota Twins’ all-time record books. With his fourth of 11 strikeouts last night, Santana became the first Minnesota pitcher to reach 200 strikeouts in a season since Bert Blyleven in 1986.
With 7-8 starts left, Santana has a very good shot at becoming the Twins’ all-time leader in strikeouts in a season. Here’s his competition …
PITCHER YEAR SO Bert Blyleven 1973 258 Bert Blyleven 1974 249 Dean Chance 1968 234 Bert Blyleven 1975 233 Bert Blyleven 1972 228 Bert Blyleven 1971 224 Camilo Pascual 1961 221 Dean Chance 1967 220 Bert Blyleven 1986 215 Camilo Pascual 1964 213 Jim Kaat 1967 211 JOHAN SANTANA 2004 207 Camilo Pascual 1962 206 Jim Kaat 1966 205 Dave Boswell 1967 204 Camilo Pascual 1963 202
Santana has 207 strikeouts through his first 181 innings. If he keeps on that pace for the rest of the year, he’ll end up with around 260-265 strikeouts, so it’ll be close. Of course, when Blyleven struck out 258 batters in 1973, he did it while throwing 325 innings, while Santana will be lucky to top 230 innings this year.
In addition to making 40 starts in 1973 (Santana is likely to make 34-35 this season), Blyleven completed an amazing 25 games, including nine shutouts. Santana has one complete game and one shutout this year, a 13-strikeout gem against the Royals on July 6. During the last decade, no pitcher has completed even 20 games in a season, with Curt Schilling‘s 15 complete games in 1998 being the most. In fact, if you only take Blyleven’s nine shutouts, that would rank tied for ninth on the complete game leaderboard since 1994. In other words, Blyleven was really good, although if you’re reading this you probably know that already.
Looking at strikeouts per nine innings instead of total strikeouts, no starter in Twins history (with at least 25 starts) even comes close to Santana …
PITCHER YEAR SO/9 JOHAN SANTANA 2004 10.29 Dave Boswell 1967 8.23 Bert Blyleven 1974 7.98 Camilo Pascual 1961 7.89 Bert Blyleven 1975 7.61 Dick Stigman 1964 7.53 Bert Blyleven 1970 7.41 Camilo Pascual 1963 7.33 Willie Banks 1993 7.25 Bert Blyleven 1971 7.24
Santana’s ability to rack up huge strikeout totals is not only extremely impressive, it is also very unique. He has a tremendous fastball, clocking in at 93-95 MPH on a consistent basis last night, but it is his amazing changeup that results in the majority of his strikeouts. While it’s a lot of fun to watch a guy blow hitters away with pure heat, it’s even more enjoyable to see him baffle batter after batter with 75-MPH changeups right over the heart of the plate.
I compare Santana’s style of striking people out to the best way to get revenge on a high school bully. Sure, fighting back in the cafeteria one day and landing a right hook to the chin is great, but waiting until you’re a successful millionaire with a gorgeous wife and 2.3 kids and then hiring the bully to wash your Hummer in the driveway of your mansion for $10 an hour, while not as immediate or flashy, is a lot sweeter. Santana’s changeup would be that second option.
While Santana is blowing away the competition in strikeouts per nine innings, he’s got a little work to do to be atop the Twins’ leaderboard for hits per nine innings …
PITCHER YEAR H/9 Dave Boswell 1967 6.54 JOHAN SANTANA 2004 6.56 Dick Woodson 1972 6.89 Dean Chance 1968 6.90 Dave Boswell 1968 7.01 Bert Blyleven 1975 7.15 Camilo Pascual 1965 7.27 Jim Perry 1966 7.29 Camilo Pascual 1961 7.32 Camilo Pascual 1963 7.44
Dave Boswell gave up just 162 hits in 222.2 innings in 1967, allowing batters to hit a measly .202 off him in 801 at-bats. Like Boswell, Santana is also holding batters to a .202 batting average this year, including .157 since the All-Star break. Because Santana combines not giving up many hits with also having very good control (he has walked 2.3/9 IP this year, whereas Boswell walked 4.3/9 IP), he is on pace to set a Twins record for fewest baserunners allowed per nine innings …
PITCHER YEAR BR/9 JOHAN SANTANA 2004 8.85 Dean Chance 1968 9.15 Jim Merritt 1967 9.20 Jim Kaat 1966 9.72 Kevin Tapani 1991 9.85 Bert Blyleven 1975 10.02 Jim Merritt 1968 10.06 Dean Chance 1967 10.11 Jim Perry 1966 10.13 Jim Kaat 1968 10.17
You can see that because of his control issues, Boswell’s 1967 season falls out of the top 10, while Dean Chance‘s 1968 season is currently the best in team history. Chance went 16-16 with a 2.53 ERA in 1968 (“The Year of the Pitcher”), striking out 234 while giving up 224 hits and 63 walks in 292 innings pitched. Pitching was so good that year that Chance didn’t even finish in the top 10 for ERA.
Finally, while I’m not a fan of using wins and losses to judge a pitcher’s value (particularly if it causes Santana to lose out on the Cy Young award this year), it’s worth noting that he has an outside shot at becoming the 13th Twins 20-game winner, following Jim Kaat, Jim Perry, Frank Viola, Camilo Pascual, Scott Erickson, Dave Goltz, Jerry Koosman, Brad Radke, Mudcat Grant, Chance, Blyleven and Boswell. All he needs to do is stretch that 15-game streak of Quality Starts into a 21- or 22-game streak of Quality Starts, and I wouldn’t put it past him.