The Pyramid Rating System’s All-Time Detroit Tigers
Miguel Cabrera might be the best Detroit Tiger of all-time. (via Keith Allison)
| Paul Moehringer’s Pyramid Rating System & All-Time Teams
Aug. 27, 2015: The Pyramid Rating System: JAWS on a Career Scale March 15, 2016: The Pyramid Rating System: The Results Aug. 12, 2016: All-Time League and Baltimore Orioles Sept. 2, 2016: Boston Red Sox Sept. 28, 2016: Texas Rangers Oct. 19, 2016: Brooklyn Dodgers Nov. 30, 2016: Cincinnati Reds Dec. 15, 2016: 2016 Season Update Dec. 20, 2016: Seattle Mariners Jan. 25, 2017: Milwaukee Brewers/Braves Feb. 2, 2017: Cleveland Indians Mar. 15, 2017: Los Angeles Dodgers May 15, 2017: Houston Astros June 30, 2017: Philadelphia Phillies Aug. 2, 2017: Kansas City Royals Oct. 24, 2017: Pittsburgh Pirates Nov. 29, 2017: Montreal Expos Apr. 4, 2018: 2017 Season Update July 2, 2018: Arizona Diamondbacks August 28, 2018: Washington Nationals |
The latest installment of the Pyramid System’s All-Time Team series takes us to Detroit and one of the most talent-laden teams this series will feature.
With a history that stretches back to 1901, and with 11 pennants and four World Series titles, the Tigers’ all-time team is stockpiled with perennial All-Stars and surefire Hall of Famers from top to bottom.
Players such as Cecil Fielder and Willie Horton, who would be good enough to challenge for the starting job on some teams, aren’t even on the 40-man squad. Franchise greats like Norm Cash and Lance Parrish will struggle to get playing time; on this team, they are little more than big fish in a deep ocean of history filled with sharks and whales.
Franchises Included:
Detroit Tigers (AL): 1901-Present
Hall of Famers on the 25-man roster: 9
Manager: Jim Leyland
Leyland is the third choice for the Tigers. But with the first option Sparky Anderson already managing in Cincinnati, and second choice Hughie Jennings on the Baltimore Orioles’ 25-man roster, the duties fall to Leyland.
In 2006, Leyland took over a Tigers team that had just suffered its fifth straight 90-plus loss season, and its 12th consecutive losing season. At 61 years old, and six years out of the game, Leyland wasn’t given much of a chance, but it was under him that the franchise would experience a revitalization and a return to a competitive level not seen since the days of Sparky Anderson.
In just his first season, Leyland guided the team to 95 wins, the most for the franchise since 1987, and the Tigers’ first American League pennant since 1984, the year of the storied 35-5 start. In his eight years with the Tigers, he would lead the team to another American League pennant in 2012, and three straight division titles from 2011 to 2013. Advising Leyland as the bench coach will be the man who guided the 1968 Tigers to their thrilling seven-game World Series title over the Cardinals, Mayo Smith.
Best Overall Player and Hitter: Ty Cobb
On a team loaded with Hall of Famers, most of whom spent virtually their entire careers in Detroit, Cobb’s status as the greatest Detroit Tiger in history remains undisputed, even nearly a century after he last suited up for the Tigers. The reason should be obvious to anyone who looks at Cobb’s stats. He won 11 batting titles, had an incredible 20 years during which he was in the top 10 in the league in on-base percentage, and had eight seasons in which he led the American League in slugging.
All this added up to a player who led the American League in OPS 10 times during his career. Only Rogers Hornsby, Babe Ruth and Ted Williams have led the league as often in the category.
Cobb’s hitting prowess alone would be enough to argue that he was one of the best players in the game, but his accomplishments do not stop there. Cobb finished in the top 10 in the American League in stolen bases 15 times, including six years during which he led the league. Regarding defense, while I have no reason to expect Cobb to contend for the Gold Glove, I don’t think he will be a liability either. Cobb had seasons among the league leaders in fielding percentage and with 22 seasons of history to pull from, I don’t know how Cobb could rank as any worse than a below-average fielder.
Even in a league as loaded as this one, Cobb would be the best leadoff hitter any team could feature. I would expect him to be a significant threat to lead the American League in batting, on-base percentage, stolen bases and runs scored just as he did throughout his career. Time will tell if Mike Trout is able to dethrone Cobb for the title of best center fielder in the American League, but for now, I would consider Cobb a near given to start there for the All-Star team, and be an MVP candidate.
In addition to all of this, Cobb will be the table setter, and the backbone of this dominating team.
Best Pitcher: Justin Verlander (Honorable Mention: Hal Newhouser)
The Tigers have never been at a loss for great pitching, but the best in the team’s history, in my opinion, is the best pitcher the American League has seen since Pedro Martínez: Justin Verlander.
Verlander’s rise coincides with the Tigers return to prominence: he went 17-9 with a 3.63 ERA in his Rookie of the Year season in 2006. Verlander would not experience any signs of a sophomore slump, posting nearly identical numbers in 2007, 18-6 with a 3.66 ERA and a 3.99 FIP in his his first of eight consecutive 200+ inning seasons.
After a step-back year in 2008, which saw Verlander lead the American League in losses and post an ERA and FIP in the fours, peak Verlander would begin to emerge, with a 19-9 record en route to a third-place Cy Young voting finish in 2009.
From 2009 through 2013, no pitcher in the majors produced more WAR, threw more innings or had more strikeouts. In all five seasons, Verlander finished in the top 10 in FIP and was an All-Star. I think Verlander’s most recent comeback, in Houston, has all but solidified his eventual place in Cooperstown. In a league such as this one, Verlander is worthy of a No. 1 starter role.
Nearly equal to Verlander is the man who previously held the distinction of greatest starter in Tigers history, Hal Newhouser. He was the backbone of the Tigers’ 1944 club, going an incredible 29-9 in 312 innings and winning the first of two straight MVP awards.
In 1945, Newhouser was even better, leading the American League with a microscopic 1.81 ERA, as well as leading the league in innings pitched, strikeouts and FIP for the World Series champions. His dominance continued in the first post-war year, 1946, when he went 26-9 with a 1.94 ERA and pitched almost 300 innings. Unfortunately, the toll of pitching so many innings each year would soon catch up to him. By the age of 30, he was finished as a top pitcher, though he wouldn’t retire for five more seasons. In his 20s, though, Newhouser had already supplanted Bob Feller as the preeminent pitcher in the American League.
Combined, Verlander and Newhouser should make for as fearsome as a 1-2 combo as there will be in either league.
Best Player Not on the Roster Due to the One-Team-Only Rule: Chet Lemon/Nobody
Lemon would have been good enough to make the 40-man squad for the Tigers. But with Ty Cobb firmly entrenched in center field, and two other Hall of Famers patrolling the corners, Lemon’s presence would be wasted on this team.
The Tigers have always been a team that valued homegrown talent, and because of this approach, they don’t miss out on any significant player in team history, enabling Detroit to carry the full weight of their 100-plus year history in a way that few teams can.
| Position | Coach |
|---|---|
| Manager | Jim Leyland |
| Bench Coach | Mayo Smith |
| First Base Coach | Gee Walker |
| Third Base Coach | Davy Jones |
| Hitting Coach | Johnny Bassler |
| Pitching Coach | Billy Muffett |
| Bullpen Coach | Chief Hogsett |
| DH vs. RHP | DH vs. LHP | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | B | T | Name | Pos | B | T | Name |
| CF | L | R | Ty Cobb | CF | L | R | Ty Cobb |
| 1B | R | R | Hank Greenberg | 3B | R | R | Miguel Cabrera |
| LF | L | L | Sam Crawford | C | R | R | Bill Freehan |
| DH | R | R | Harry Heilmann | DH | R | R | Harry Heilmann |
| 3B | R | R | Miguel Cabrera | RF | R | R | Al Kaline |
| SS | R | R | Alan Trammell | SS | R | R | Alan Trammell |
| 2B | L | R | Charlie Gehringer | LF | L | L | Sam Crawford |
| RF | R | R | Al Kaline | 1B | R | R | Hank Greenberg |
| C | R | R | Bill Freehan | 2B | L | R | Charlie Gehringer |
| vs RHP | vs LHP | ||||||
| Pos | B | T | Name | Pos | B | T | Name |
| CF | L | R | Ty Cobb | CF | L | R | Ty Cobb |
| 1B | R | R | Hank Greenberg | 3B | R | R | Miguel Cabrera |
| 2B | L | R | Charlie Gehringer | C | R | R | Bill Freehan |
| LF | R | R | Harry Heilmann | LF | R | R | Harry Heilmann |
| 3B | R | R | Miguel Cabrera | RF | R | R | Al Kaline |
| SS | R | R | Alan Trammell | SS | R | R | Alan Trammell |
| C | L | R | Bill Freehan | 2B | L | R | Charlie Gehringer |
| RF | R | R | Al Kaline | 1B | R | R | Hank Greenberg |
| P | R | R | Justin Verlander | P | R | R | Justin Verlander |
| Pos | B | T | Name |
|---|---|---|---|
| C | R | R | Lance Parrish |
| 1B | L | L | Norm Cash |
| MI | L | R | Dick McAuliffe |
| 3B/SS | R | R | Travis Fryman |
| SS | S | R | Billy Rogell |
| OF | L | L | Kirk Gibson |
| OF | R | R | Austin Jackson |
| OF | L | R | Bobby Veach |
| SP | R | R | Schoolboy Rowe |
| SP | R | R | Denny McLain |
| SP | R | R | Frank Lary |
| SP | R | R | Virgil Trucks |
| RP | R | L | Hank Aguirre |
| RP | L | R | Doug Brocail |
| RP | R | R | Hal White |
Strengths
Top to bottom this is as strong and as fearsome as any all-time team featured in this series.
For most every team, I’ve made a point of identifying the platoons I would use to maximize offense. With the Tigers, there is no need to do any of this. Every player in Detroit’s starting nine is either a multi-time All-Star or a surefire Hall of Famer. With that in mind, there is just no way to screw up this lineup. You could pick the batting order out of a hat and regardless of what you drew, it would still rank among the best in the American League.
With three lefties and six righties in the lineup, the Tigers are well-balanced against both left- and right-handed pitching and should be mostly immune from any situational matchup. Even Walter Johnson will have a hard time solving this lineup.
I would expect Cobb to be the best leadoff hitter in either league, and it doesn’t get much easier from there. Every hitter finished in the top 10 in the league in home runs and batting average at some point during his career, and all played at least 10 years with Detroit, meaning the Tigers get almost full credit for their career totals.
With regards to pitching, the Tigers are almost the AL’s equivalent of the Los Angeles Dodgers with the balance they have in starters and relievers. Lolich, Trout and Morris were all workhorses during their careers, but with the bullpen, there will be no need for any of them to go much longer than six innings in any outing. Closing things out for Detroit is maybe the most underrated relief pitcher in baseball history, John Hiller. He was a key contributor to the 1968 squad, but it wouldn’t be until 1972, coming back after a heart attack that cost him the entire 1971 season, that Hiller’s greatness would begin.
That season, Hiller posted a 2.03 ERA in 44.1 innings after joining the team in July, helping the Tigers to a division title. The following season would be Hiller’s best, as he went 10-5 with 38 saves in 125.1 innings. His ERA on the season was a microscopic 1.44. Hiller had the rare distinction that year of placing equally well in the MVP voting as he did in the Cy Young voting, coming in fourth. He also won the American League’s Fireman of the Year and Comeback Player of the Year awards.
Although Hiller would never equal his 1973 season, he was still about as dominant a reliever as there was in the game, posting a 2.45 ERA in 341.2 innings between 1974 and 1976. His 125 save total may not seem like much compared to counterparts such as Goose Gossage, Rollie Fingers and Sparky Lyle, but Hiller is very much in this class of relief pitcher, which is why he is the closer for the all-time Tigers.
The fact that a former MVP winner Willie Hernández is being used as a lefty specialist should give some indication of just how deep and formidable this bullpen is. Even the middle relief doesn’t offer much of a reprieve, with former closers Mike Henneman and Aurelio Lopez handling the bridge roles. All this adds up to a pitching staff that will challenge for the American League’s ERA title.
Weaknesses
There are a few defensive weaknesses, such as Miguel Cabrera at third and Sam Crawford in left field, but these are nitpicky issues on a near bulletproof team. Some may suggest picking Crawford in the DH spot, but this is where I’m hoping the man who’s arguably the second-best hitter in Tigers history will shine.
Heilmann is probably in the top five best hitters most fans have never heard of; the numbers are staggering. From 1921-1927, Heilmann finished no lower than third in the American League in OPS. Nicknamed “Slug” for his lack of speed, Heilmann was one of the worst defensive outfielders during the 1920s. But with the DH, the four-time batting champion can now focus entirely on mashing, as would likely have been the case had the DH been around in the 1920s. Short of Babe Ruth, you will not find a more fearsome American League hitter from the 1920s than Heilmann. Except for Ted Williams of the Red Sox, you likely won’t see a better full-time DH in this league.
The bench is not particularly strong, but with a “set it and forget it” starting nine, I don’t see the point in adding someone like Kirk Gibson to the 25-man roster when there’s no reason to start him barring an injury. This rationale also explains the inclusion of Tony Phillips, who would be a backup at multiple defensive positions. With Phillips’ ability to play both left and third, he should have plenty of opportunities to come in as a defensive replacement and a pinch runner.
Conclusions
Along with the Red Sox, I think the Tigers present the best challenge to the Yankees for supremacy in the American League. There is no easy way to attack this team, nor is there much a pitching staff could do other than slow down the offensive onslaught. With a deep rotation and bullpen to boot, the Tigers can win a slugfest just as easily as they could come out ahead in a 2-1 pitcher’s duel.
It would be fun to watch this lineup go up against the deep pitching staffs of Chicago and Cleveland. I expect those three teams to battle for the division title all the way to the final day of the regular season.
The Tigers rank as one of the top five teams this series will feature. There are no weaknesses to be found on this club and barring an injury bug, they look to be be a 90-plus win team, even in a league as deep and talented as this one. Whether they could win a World Series in this league will forever remain a mystery, but this is a dream team that any baseball fan would be interested in seeing live.
Great article! Reading this was like tearing into a 32 oz medium rare prime rib. The depth and breadth of the roster is so good that many of these players make other famous (or infamous rosters) as well:
1. Mickey Lolich – all time family team (Ron Lolich)
2. Hank Greenberg – all time Jewish team
3. Norm Cash – all time “pay as you go” team
4. Denny McLain – all time ex con team
5. Again, McLain and Lolich – all time overweight team
6. And finally, Dick McAuliffe – all time odd batting stance team.
you missed Gates Brown and Ron Leflore on the all time ex-convict team
au contraire! i only included players from Paul’s list. Otherwise, each category could have merited its own article.
starting pitcher? Denny McClain!
Austin Jackson? Huh?
Yeah, Chet Lemon on the 40 man would be a much better choice than A-Jax. If he is on the White Sox, than I think Curtis Granderson or even Ron LeFlore would be a better choice than Austin Jackson.
If you compare Granderson and Jackson head-to-head for their entire careers, Granderson is the better player by a landslide.
But this system only looks at what they did with the Tigers, and when you do that, its a lot closer than you think.
Granderson OPS+ with the Tigers: 114
Jackson OPS+: 105
SB’s
Granderson: 67
Jackson: 78
PA’s:
Granderson: 2,896
Jackson: 2,994
Granderson may have a bit of an edge at the plate, but Jackson is the better runner and defender. I really don’t see how one can rate than much better than the other if we’re just looking at what they did as a Tiger.
You could justify Granderson over Jackson, but I think the difference would be mostly negligible.
If Granderson had spent more than 1/3rd of his career in a Tiger uniform, he would be on the 40-man squad, no questions asked. Going to the Yankees before turning 30 cost him.
Would you consider replacing Donie Bush with Travis Fryman? Then, at least vs. lefties, you could put Cabrera at 1B, Greenberg in LF and Fryman at 3B. I think it would improve the defense at 3B and at least retain similarly lesser defenders in LF and 1B, overall a defensive upgrade if not a very dramatic one.
Given the powerful lineup, I don’t think it hurts that much vs. Lefties to play Fryman over Crawford. It leaves plenty of firepower in the lineup and strengthens the bench if you want a late inning pinch hitter from the left side.
An injury to Trammell could cause problems, I realize, but he was durable and I suppose, should he go on the DL for any length of time, you could recall Bush.
Miguel Cabrera at third is going to be a defensive adventure. I am not saying it is inappropriate – third base is not exactly a strength historically for Detroit – but let’s hope Trammell is at the top of his game and there are not a lot of bunts.
Related, where does George Kell fall into all of this? His Hall of Fame induction is dubious, but he was a good player with a good defensive reputation. Cabrera is the sort of player begging for a defensive replacement platoon. Tony Phillips played almost 300 games at shortstop, albeit mostly early in his career with Oakland, so could Bush could be pushed off the roster in favor of Kell or someone else?
Bush had much more substantial career with Detroit, though (1871 games vs 826 for Kell) & can also play shortstop. Tony Phillips is more useful than Kell for his versatility (& for averaging 5 WAR a year during his 5 years in Detroit).
I’ll guess it’s between Fryman & Kell for the last spot..& again Fryman can play SS & had a longer career in Detroit (at least as a player..Maybe we can get Kell in the broadcasting booth with Ernie Harwell?)
“albeit mostly early in his career with Oakland”
You just described why he’s not listed as a shortstop for the Tigers. As this series treats it, Tony Phillips of the Tigers and Tony Phillips of the A’s might as well be two completely different players.
I get Cabrera isn’t the best defensive option, but I can’t justify shoehorning Travis Fryman or anyone else for that matter at the expensive of benching a Hall of Famer.
Fryman is also pretty even when it comes to lefty/righty matchups, so using him as a platoon option would be mostly a waste IMO. Also, there’s nobody in the Tiger lineup I would ever pinch hit for, save for maybe Bill Freehan against a righty.
Kell didn’t miss the team by much. Again I’m basing him on just the seven years he spent with the club and not his entire career.
Kell is a solid on-base guy, but he presents zero power threat and doesn’t rate well defensively.
You could argue him over Fryman, but even though they are different players, I don’t see much of a difference between the two overall.
If you see George Kell as a defensive liability, then there is no point of putting him on the roster, at least not for the purpose I suggested. Fair enough.
You can see how I have every season rated in this file.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/eii6odvsbx188fs/Pyramid%20Rating%20System%20Database.xlsm?dl=0
This is the Historical Database I’ve been working on for about 16 months now as part of my efforts to make all of my work as available as possible.
I’m constantly making updates to the file which I regularly post on Twitter.
I’m hoping to add the 2018 season by the end of January.
Thanks. My file was ooooooooold. I NEVER see you post updates. They must get lost.
I usually post an update at least once a week with something.
Anything major will be on my Twitter page.
I’m hoping to have the 2018 season added by around February. I’ll also start updating the rankings around then as well.
Paul as a lifelong Tigers fan (since 1954), I want to thankyou for this great time taking task of The Detroit Tigers Pyramid Rating System. What a labor of love.
I see many old time Tigers who have been long forgotten until this incredible work you have given us.
The under rated great Bobby Veach, who I was told years ago was a terrific defensive LF’er,
and part of two of the all-time great Outfields in ML history; with Cobb and Crawford, and Cobb and Heilman.
Another name from the past, maybe the original ‘Walking Man’ before Eddie Yost, Johnny Bassler as a coach,
My only question is having Kaline in left? The preeminent Defensive RF’er in American League history only played 17 games in LF. By removing him from LF, “The People’s Champion Willie Horton could be inserted in his place.
Thank you very much for the kind words.
The thing I try the most with every team is to be as fair as possible with every era.
Kaline is eligible to play left because, under the rules of this league, its just assumed that anyone who could play right field could also play left near or at the same level of skill.
Sam Crawford never played left field during his career either, but him in left, Cobb in center and Kaline in right is what I think most anyone building this lineup would do.
With regards to Horton, the Tigers have more qualified outfielders than they have roster spots.
Since you’re done more than one of these, you might think about putting links to the others. It’d be fun to be able to jump around and compare.
Nice article in this great series Paul. Sorry to see one of my childhood favorites Ron LeFlore couldn’t make it, even for pinch running purposes. Very understandable however, just sad.
Thanks, this is a really interesting approach to considering being ‘peaky’, and being present, in a baseball career. Some of the math is beyond me. I like the assumption of ‘value in a season is value in a season’, rather than downgrading long-ago seasons’ accomplishments. I enjoy discussion of comparing performances throughout history. And it feels right to me that there’s a lot of value toward pennants (toward good seasons in general for the team) in peaky performances. (I guess there have been other approaches to this too? I sorta recall something called ‘pennants added’, for example.)
A couple of questions. One, the method is looking at three main things, yes? Playing time, WAR per playing time, and total WAR. Could you briefly give a layman-oriented explanation of why the third aspect is needed/desirable when I’d have figured it was inherent in the first two?
Your 2nd article on the PRS, more than two and a half years ago, has a link at the bottom to a list of rankings for more (all?) players. The link doesn’t seem to function any more; is something still available? https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1be24YuSrow6ECMmBr4zOWfdZHWj399JKhn7cqRfIIZk/edit?usp=sharing
Thank you for your kind words.
As for your questions:
1. I include total WAR as a kind of normalization between the two. Someone may score very high in WAR per playing time, but virtually zero in playing time. They would rate far higher on the scale if I didn’t include total WAR. Rich Hill in 2005 would be a good example of this. A 1.55 ERA in 29 innings pitched. Overall this year rates to a B, but even that seems a little high.
If I didn’t include total WAR, he would rate as an A pitcher.
2. This is the current file I am using and have been updating.
The most significant change I have made is to switch from a 20-80 grade system to a letter grade system. For me, a C caliber hitter is a lot easier to understand than a batter who rates as a 37.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/eii6odvsbx188fs/Pyramid%20Rating%20System%20Database.xlsm?dl=0
As for the Pyramid Rating System itself, the idea is to have a career value system, while eliminating career numbers. The whole peak versus career argument is not something of concern to the Pyramid Rating System.
What I’ve found in my research is that players who rate as being A++ are disproportionately represented on winning teams. This is where Babe Ruth’s ’27, Mantle in ’56, Bonds ’02 seasons rate. But its also where Ted Abernathy’s 1967 season rates. The Pyramid Rating System treats all of these seasons being equal to one another.
But if you have an A++ player on your team, I would expect that team to win around 92 games and have a 25% chance of winning the World Series. If you have an A+ player, I would expect that team to win around 88 games and have around a 15% of winning it all.
What this tells me is there is actually a pretty big difference between having the best and the second-best player. My theory is that its because these players remain dominant no matter who their competition is, while everyone else gets worse as the competition (ie. playoffs) intensifies.
People like to think of baseball as the ultimate team sport, but the reality is the sport plays a lot more like the NBA. Just tell me your four or five best players and I will likely be able to tell you within 10 games how many wins that team will/would have.
What this system says it get Mike Trout and Mookie Betts on the same team, and you’ve won half the battle.