The Royals and “Anti-Three True Outcomes”

Prior to the 2013 season, Dayton Moore pushed his powder blue chips in for a playoff run. The Royals had played to a .408 winning percentage since their last winning team (an 83-79 squad in 2003). They hadn’t won more than 75 games in any season from 2004 through 2012. Their No. 1-ranked farm system of the prior few years had begun funneling a ton of offensive talent to Kauffman Stadium, but injuries and subpar performances left them with few internal options for their pitching staff.

Thus, in December of 2012, Kansas City swapped top prospect Wil Myers along with Jake Odorizzi for (ostensibly) two years of nominal ace James Shields and “crossing fingers he can solidify the rotation” Wade Davis. With their competent and potent lineup including homegrown Salvador Perez, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, it seemed the Royals could contend for at least a Wild Card spot in 2013 and 2014.

The 2013 season didn’t quite pan out as they had hoped, but at 86-76 KC did achieve only its second winning season since 1993. Yordano Ventura debuted, and Royals fans could pin their hopes on the possible first successful home-grown ace pitcher since Zack Greinke.

Alas, the 2014 season has been more of the same. A recent ten-game winning streak (their longest since 1994) moved them into first place by 1 ½ games, but that only placed them at 39-32, and that burst was followed immediately by a four-game losing streak. Coming into Saturday’s contest, Kansas City’s 41-38 record (.519) was quite similar to last year’s .530 final tally.

Fans and media are noticing that, at least when it comes to offense, this year’s squad does a lot of things like last year’s group … or should I say they don’t do things. They don’t walk (their 193 free passes is last, not just in the league, but in the majors). They don’t hit homers (also last in the AL and all of MLB with 46, one behind the Cardinals). They finished 26^th in walks and 28^th in homers in 2013.

But I suggest this is only coming under increasing scrutiny because of the lofty expectations placed upon the club. For you see, the Royals never have really walked, or homered like their brethren. They also haven’t struck out as frequently as the competition. They are the “anti-Three True Outcomes.”

Back in February of 2012, I wrote on my blog about the concept of Three True Outcomes (TTO) for teams. I examined the walk, strikeout and homer rates for all teams from 1973 to 2011 and found the teams with the best and worst TTO rates in the DH era. I also charted the steady increase in TTO rate in the majors and tried to see if there was a correlation between team TTO rate and winning percentage (there wasn’t).

Before I share my updated research, with an emphasis on the Royals, a little KC history regarding the TTO categories:

Home Runs

Legendarily, Kansas City has never had a player with a 40-homer season and is the only current team that can make that claim. Steve Balboni’s 36 long balls in 1985 has stood up as the franchise’s leading total for 28 subsequent seasons. In fact, there have been only ten 30-homer seasons in Royals team history:

Royals 30-homer Seasons

Player	HR	Year
Steve Balboni	36	1985
Gary Gaetti	35	1995
Dean Palmer	34	1998
Danny Tartabull	34	1987
John Mayberry	34	1975
Jermaine Dye	33	2000
Bo Jackson	32	1989
Danny Tartabull	31	1991
Chili Davis	30	1997
George Brett	30	1985

They haven’t had a 30-homer hitter since Jermaine Dye launched 33 in 2000. If that seems like a long time, that’s because it is. With only one 30-homer season, Kansas City is five behind the next worst since 2000:

Player-Seasons with 30+ Homers, 2000 to 2013

Team	Player Seasons	Team	Player Seasons	Team	Player Seasons
Yankees	26	Braves	14	Orioles	9
White Sox	25	Rockies	14	Indians	9
Rangers	22	Angels	14	Tigers	9
Phillies	20	Reds	13	Dodgers	8
Cardinals	20	Astros	13	Padres	8
Brewers	19	Diamondbacks	12	Giants	8
Blue Jays	19	Mets	12	Mariners	8
Red Sox	16	Athletics	12	Rays	7
Marlins	16	Expos / Nationals	11	Twins	6
Cubs	15	Pirates	10	Royals	1

Historically, the Royals have never been a homer-hitting team. Even in their World Series-winning year of 1985, they finished eighth out of 14 teams in the AL in homers. In fact, they’ve finished in the top half of the league in long balls only twice in their existence, and have finished in the bottom third every season since 2004:

Royals Yearly AL Ranks in Homers

Year	HR Rank	Year	HR Rank	Year	HR Rank
2014	15	1999	12	1984	12
2013	15	1998	12	1983	12
2012	13	1997	10	1982	10
2011	11	1996	13	1981	10
2010	12	1995	14	1980	9
2009	13	1994	13	1979	11
2008	13	1993	10	1978	11
2007	14	1992	14	1977	6
2006	14	1991	11	1976	11
2005	14	1990	13	1975	9
2004	11	1989	13	1974	12
2003	7	1988	12	1973	9
2002	12	1987	12	1972	10
2001	11	1986	12	1971	12
2000	13	1985	8	1970	12
				1969	10

Bold: Finished in top half of league.

Walks

Unlike homers, the Royals have had players lead the league in walks in a season:

• Darrell Porter with 121 in 1979
• John Mayberry with 122 in 1973 and 119 in 1975

But still, this is more the exception than the rule. This year’s Royals even like to swing on 3-0:

A lot of it depends on the pitcher, but it could be the best pitch you’re going to get for the rest of the at-bat. It could be,” Royals manager Ned Yost said. “So we green-light our power hitters with one out, never with no outs, and only if it’s at a point in the game where it can give us the lead or add on.”

Through June 27, they’ve had 49 plate appearances decided on a 3-0 count. That’s the fifth-fewest in the big leagues. The A’s, by comparison, have 80 such plate appearances. And yet, the Royals lead the majors in most at-bats in those situations (10), meaning they’ve eschewed ten probable walks sometime before the end of the appearance in favor of putting a ball in play on the fourth pitch.

The result: one single, one double and eight outs. That’s a .200 average in those situations, which also pales compared to the majors’ overall .330-plus average in such situations. So most other teams are better at working the count, and when they do decide on those rare occasions to swing on 3-0, they’re being more productive.

From a long-term perspective, the Royals haven’t been “walkers” since 1981. They had finished in the top half of the American League six times in nine years ending in 1980. However, they’ve been 13^th or worse (out of 14 or 15 teams) nine times since 2000.

Royals Yearly AL Ranks in Walks

Year	BB Rank	Year	BB Rank	Year	BB Rank
2014	15	1999	10	1984	14
2013	13	1998	12	1983	14
2012	14	1997	9	1982	13
2011	11	1996	12	1981	10
2010	9	1995	13	1980	6
2009	13	1994	12	1979	6
2008	14	1993	14	1978	10
2007	13	1992	13	1977	9
2006	10	1991	10	1976	8
2005	12	1990	10	1975	5
2004	13	1989	5	1974	3
2003	9	1988	9	1973	2
2002	8	1987	10	1972	1
2001	14	1986	13	1971	10
2000	14	1985	12	1970	8
				1969	11

Bold: Finished in top half of league.

Strikeouts

As with walks, the Royals have had a couple of players lead the league in strikeouts in a season:

• Steve Balboni with 166 in 1985
• Bo Jackson with 172 in 1989

This is the one category of the three “true outcomes” where the Royals have actually been somewhat proficient from time to time. They finished in the top half of the league seven times in 11 years ending in 1997 and four times in six seasons ending in 2009. But take a look at their ranks from 2010 onward. The current Royals don’t work the count (as witnessed by the lack of walks), and they don’t walk back to the bench very often as victims of a punchout:

Royals Yearly AL Ranks in Strikeouts

Year	K Rank	Year	K Rank	Year	K Rank
2014	15	1999	11	1984	8
2013	15	1998	11	1983	11
2012	14	1997	7	1982	8
2011	12	1996	10	1981	12
2010	14	1995	10	1980	10
2009	7	1994	5	1979	10
2008	9	1993	4	1978	13
2007	6	1992	14	1977	12
2006	8	1991	6	1976	10
2005	5	1990	9	1975	11
2004	7	1989	7	1974	9
2003	10	1988	2	1973	11
2002	13	1987	4	1972	11
2001	14	1986	8	1971	11
2000	14	1985	7	1970	4
				1969	8

Now that we’re teased the original research on team TTO and given you the Royals history in these categories, let’s put them together.

Here is MLB’s TTO rate in the DH era:

From approximately 1980 onward, there has been a pretty steady increase. The spike in 1987 was the result of the home run explosion that year. (Many people speculated the ball was juiced that season.) The “steroid years” provided another, longer spike in the TTO rate, and once that era ended, a more “normal”–but still observable–trend line continued. Through June 27^th, this year’s rate is an all-time high of 30.6 percent.

In case you were wondering, its strikeouts, not homers or walks, that are driving the consistent increase in TTO percentage. In fact, within the past decade or so, the rate of walks and homers both have declined slightly. Conversely, this season is the first to have a K% above 20 percent. Here is the breakout of homers, walks and strikeouts as a percentage of all plate appearances by season in the DH era:

As I alluded to earlier, the Royals almost always have lagged behind the rest of the league in these three categories. The chart below shows the increased lag within the past 15 years, and especially since 2010:

Putting the categories together, we see that the Royals have been the “anti-TTO” for most of their existence:

Their current 23.5 percent TTO would be the lowest single-season mark since the 2008 Mariners (23.2 percent). But since overall TTO rate has increased since then, the current Royals are lagging behind league average at a more severe rate. If the season ended now, their -23.3 percent variance from league TTO rate would set a record in the DH era, by nearly three percent. This would give them seven of the 17 biggest negative variances overall:

Biggest Differences Between Team And MLB TTO Rates, 1973-2014

Year	Team	Team TTO	MLB TTO	Diff
2014	KCR	23.5%	30.6%	-23.3%
2002	ANA	22.4%	28.2%	-20.6%
1975	STL	18.9%	23.8%	-20.6%
2007	SEA	22.6%	28.2%	-19.9%
2008	SEA	23.2%	28.8%	-19.6%
2000	KCR	23.5%	29.1%	-19.2%
1984	MIL	19.8%	24.3%	-18.5%
1999	CHW	23.5%	28.8%	-18.3%
2010	KCR	24.1%	29.5%	-18.2%
2001	KCR	23.6%	28.7%	-17.9%
1992	KCR	20.6%	25.1%	-17.7%
1981	TEX	18.6%	22.6%	-17.4%
1990	MIN	21.3%	25.6%	-16.9%
1978	CHW	19.1%	23.0%	-16.7%
1980	TEX	18.9%	22.6%	-16.6%
2012	KCR	25.5%	30.4%	-16.3%
1983	KCR	20.2%	24.0%	-15.9%

Admittedly, the Royals TTO percentage has very little to do with their postseason chances. But while there may not be a correlation between TTO rate and winning percentage, examining only the homer and walk components leads to some interesting thoughts.

There is a definite trend line/correlation between a team’s homer and walk percentages and its overall winning percentage:

That blue diamond on the 8.0% line is the 2014 Royals. You’ll notice that it’s right there with the lowest total of any team over the past 40-plus years. You’ll also notice that few, if any, teams have been able to win even at a .550 clip without having a nine-percent homer-plus-walk rate. These Royals need only look at similarly walk and homer-challenged teams to realize their chances of a winning season are poor:

Lowest HR+BB%, 1973-2014

Year	Team	HR%	BB%	HR+BB%	Win%
1981	MIN	1.2%	6.8%	8.0%	.376
2014	KCR	1.5%	6.5%	8.0%	.519
2011	HOU	1.5%	6.5%	8.1%	.346
1980	CHW	1.5%	6.7%	8.2%	.438
1998	PIT	1.8%	6.4%	8.2%	.426
1981	SDP	0.8%	7.4%	8.2%	.373
2002	DET	2.1%	6.1%	8.2%	.342
1982	SDP	1.3%	7.0%	8.3%	.500
1983	KCR	1.8%	6.5%	8.3%	.488
1988	CHC	1.8%	6.5%	8.3%	.475
1978	HOU	1.2%	7.2%	8.4%	.457
1978	STL	1.3%	7.0%	8.4%	.426
2008	KCR	2.0%	6.4%	8.4%	.463
1981	PIT	1.4%	7.0%	8.4%	.451

However, if anyone squawks that these Royals don’t hit homers or walk, you can point out this is just their modus operandi. The park dimensions don’t matter. The personnel doesn’t matter. Even changing hitting coaches makes little difference. The Royals always have, and it seems they always will, avoid TTOs.