The Virtual 1916-1925 Boston Red Sox (Part 1: 1916-1919)
Babe Ruth, Harry Frazee, Red Sox, Yankees, No, No, Nanette, Curse of the Bambino, blah, blah, blah. It’s a part of American folklore, really.
But what is less well-known (yet perhaps even more significant) is the fact that the Boston Red Sox sent away a huge number of other excellent players in the late teens and early twenties, and all too often, the New York Yankees were the beneficiary. The 1923 Yankees—the franchise’s first World Series-winning team—featured ex-Red Sox Ruth, catcher Wally Schang, third baseman Joe Dugan, shortstop Everett Scott, and fourth outfielder Elmer Smith. And those are just the hitters: Of the eight pitchers to appear in a game for the Yankees that year, six had previously been with Boston, including four-fifths of the starting rotation.
Time and again, the Red Sox sold or traded some of the best talent in the game, and they almost always came up short in the exchange. After capturing four pennants (and four World Series titles) in the seven-season span from 1912 through 1918, by the early 1920s they had sunk to the bottom of the American League, and they wouldn’t become a champion again until after World War II.
And who oversaw the collapse of the Red Sox dynasty? Mostly, it was the much-maligned Frazee. He bought the team from Joseph Lannin in November 1916, and was the principal owner until 1923. During that period, the Red Sox made an alarming number of regrettable transactions, though Frazee would sell at more than double his purchase investment (a $1.2 million sale price after buying in at $500,000), in addition to more than a quarter million yielded in cash from the sales/trades with the Yankees.
But it didn’t have to be that way. What if Lannin, and then Frazee, had focused on maintaining the best team in baseball, rather than dismantling it and selling the parts for scrap? What if the Red Sox had resisted pulling the trigger on all those lopsided deals?
Treder:
Okay, Matthew. There’s a whole lot for us to chew on here, so how about if I elbow my way in and grab the first bite?
Frazee was indeed the primary villain in this piece. But Lannin wasn’t blameless. He was responsible for an enormously important deal, enacted on the cusp of Opening Day in 1916: he traded 28-year-old superstar center fielder Tris Speaker to the Cleveland Indians in exchange for young right-handed pitcher Sam Jones, minor league infielder Fred Thomas, and $55,000.
Now, Jones was a seriously excellent prospect; indeed after a few years of development he would emerge as a star in Boston (and then, of course, he would be traded to the Yankees, but I’m sure we’ll get to that). But good as he became, Jones would never be anything close to as valuable a performer as the inner-circle all-time great Speaker. And Thomas was marginal; he would remain in the minors until 1918. Obviously the key to this deal was the huge sum of cash.
How huge was that sum of cash? Well, $55,000 in 1916 was equivalent to over $1 million in today’s dollars. Clearly, Jones was a nice sweetener, but for all practical purposes this was a sale, not a trade. Lannin would pocket the loot (or more accurately, haul it off in a wheelbarrow), and, as we know, sell out his interest in the franchise later that year.
But let’s assume Lannin was more interested in sustaining the success of his ball club on the field (the Red Sox had, after all, captured the pennant and the World Series in 1915) than in liquidating his assets. Let’s assume he turned down the Indians’ offer to take Speaker off his hands.
Such a scenario would logically eliminate a related transaction the Red Sox undertook the same week they were unloading Speaker: in the absence of the Speaker deal, there would be no reason for Boston to purchase journeyman center fielder Tilly Walker from the St. Louis Browns for the sum of $3,500. (So, hey, in our fantasy we take the 55 grand away from Lannin’s bank account, but at least we let him keep the three-and-a-half G’s he spent on Walker—he winds up only $51,500 poorer!)
We can assume that every other roster move the Red Sox made in 1916 stands as it did. With Speaker in center field instead of Walker, and without the 23-year-old Jones contributing his 27 innings of mop-up work, how would the Red Sox have done that year? Probably about like this:
1916
Pos Player B Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS+
1B D. Hoblitzel L 27 130 417 61 108 17 1 0 40 47 28 .259 .338 .305 92
2B J. Barry R 29 94 330 28 67 6 1 0 20 17 24 .203 .277 .227 51
SS E. Scott R 23 123 366 38 85 19 2 0 28 23 24 .232 .283 .295 73
3B L. Gardner L 30 148 493 48 152 19 7 2 66 48 27 .308 .372 .387 127
RF H. Hooper L 28 151 575 80 156 20 11 1 38 80 35 .271 .361 .350 113
CF T. Speaker L 28 151 546 101 209 40 8 2 73 82 20 .383 .456 .496 185
LF D. Lewis R 28 152 563 57 151 29 5 1 60 33 56 .268 .313 .343 96
C P. Thomas L 28 99 216 21 57 10 1 1 21 33 13 .264 .364 .333 109
S2 H. Janvrin R 23 117 310 33 69 11 4 0 26 32 32 .223 .299 .284 74
C H. Cady R 30 78 162 5 31 6 3 0 13 15 16 .191 .264 .265 58
1B D. Gainer R 29 56 142 14 36 6 0 3 18 10 24 .254 .303 .359 98
P B. Ruth L 21 67 136 18 37 5 3 3 15 10 23 .272 .322 .419 121
23 M. McNally R 22 87 135 28 23 0 0 0 9 10 19 .170 .228 .170 19
OF C. Shorten L 24 40 75 9 21 1 1 0 7 7 6 .280 .337 .320 97
OF O. Henriksen L 28 51 66 9 13 1 1 0 7 13 10 .197 .317 .242 67
C S. Agnew R 29 40 67 4 14 2 1 0 7 6 4 .209 .293 .269 68
C B. Carrigan R 32 33 63 7 17 2 1 0 11 11 3 .270 .378 .333 113
Others 26 7 7 2 0 0 2 7 3 .269 .424 .346 131
Pitchers 339 17 59 10 2 0 23 30 83 .174 .233 .215 34
TOTAL 5027 585 1312 206 52 13 484 514 450 .261 .321 .330 99
Pitcher T Age G GS CG IP W L SV H HR BB SO ERA ERA+
B. Ruth L 21 44 41 23 324 24 11 1 224 0 118 170 1.70 163
D. Leonard L 24 48 34 17 274 19 11 6 238 6 66 144 2.30 120
C. Mays R 24 44 24 14 245 19 12 3 202 3 74 76 2.31 120
E. Shore R 25 38 28 10 226 17 9 1 215 1 49 62 2.55 109
R. Foster R 28 33 19 9 182 15 6 2 169 0 86 53 3.01 92
V. Gregg L 31 21 7 3 78 2 5 0 69 0 30 41 2.90 96
H. Pennock L 22 14 2 0 41 0 3 1 29 0 12 18 4.63 60
W. Wyckoff R 24 12 0 0 35 0 0 1 35 0 27 27 3.07 90
M. McHale R 29 2 1 0 6 0 1 0 7 0 4 1 3.00 92
TOTAL 156 156 76 1410 96 58 15 1188 10 466 592 2.41 115
Walker was a good ballplayer, but he was, of course, no Tris Speaker. And the absence of Jones on the pitching staff that year would be of no consequence. So we can conservatively estimate that the Red Sox, who actually repeated as AL pennant winners in 1916 with a record of 91-63, would also do so in our scenario, but far more comfortably, at 96-58.
Namee:
The Red Sox didn’t make any bad moves in 1917, but Speaker remains a big improvement over Tilly Walker and company in center field.
One thing we haven’t yet discussed is Speaker’s defense. Until Willie Mays came along, Speaker was almost always cited as the greatest defensive center fielder in history. Bill James concurs in Win Shares, giving him an A+ grade. Walker, on the other hand, was mediocre, earning a C+. Let’s be conservative and call that a five-run advantage for Speaker overall. (But we can spread it out proportionally: let’s credit Speaker with a 30-hit, 10-run reduction from Boston pitchers’ records in his peak seasons, and wind that down to zero by the time he’s in his late 30s.)
Fenway was a tougher park for hitters than Cleveland’s League Park, so Speaker’s offense takes a hit. In 1916, he makes up for it by not having to face the awesome Red Sox pitching staff. But he has no such advantage in 1917: while the Red Sox remained outstanding, Cleveland’s pitchers were nearly as good. So while he’s just as great, Speaker’s raw numbers suffer from the switch, with a decline of nearly 20 points in batting average.
1917
Pos Player B Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS+
1B D. Hoblitzel L 28 120 420 50 108 19 7 1 49 46 22 .257 .336 .343 108
2B J. Barry R 30 116 388 45 83 9 0 2 31 47 27 .214 .305 .253 71
SS E. Scott R 24 157 528 40 127 24 7 0 51 20 46 .241 .268 .313 78
3B L. Gardner L 31 146 501 53 133 23 7 1 66 54 37 .265 .341 .345 110
RF H. Hooper L 29 151 559 91 143 21 11 3 47 80 40 .256 .355 .349 116
CF T. Speaker L 29 142 525 85 175 40 10 2 57 65 15 .333 .404 .459 164
LF D. Lewis R 29 150 553 56 167 29 9 1 70 29 54 .302 .342 .392 125
C S. Agnew R 30 85 260 17 54 6 2 0 17 19 30 .208 .267 .246 57
C P. Thomas L 29 83 202 24 48 7 0 0 25 27 9 .238 .333 .272 86
1B D. Gainer R 30 52 172 28 53 10 2 2 20 15 21 .308 .374 .424 144
2S H. Janvrin R 24 55 127 21 25 3 0 0 8 11 13 .197 .266 .220 49
P B. Ruth L 22 52 123 14 40 6 3 2 12 12 18 .325 .385 .472 162
OF J. Walsh L 31 38 86 12 23 3 1 0 6 11 7 .267 .347 .326 106
OF C. Shorten L 25 35 67 4 12 2 1 0 6 4 4 .179 .213 .239 38
3S M. McNally R 23 42 50 9 15 1 0 0 2 6 3 .300 .375 .320 113
Others 106 11 18 2 1 0 4 12 16 .170 .240 .208 37
Pitchers 365 22 67 10 3 0 26 25 75 .184 .232 .227 41
TOTAL 5032 582 1291 215 64 14 497 483 437 .257 .310 .333 97
Pitcher T Age G GS CG IP W L SV H HR BB SO ERA ERA+
B. Ruth L 22 41 38 35 326 25 12 2 244 2 108 128 2.01 128
D. Leonard L 25 37 36 26 294 17 16 1 257 4 72 144 2.17 119
C. Mays R 25 35 33 27 289 23 8 0 230 1 74 91 1.74 148
E. Shore R 26 29 27 14 227 14 9 1 201 1 55 57 2.22 116
R. Foster R 29 17 16 9 125 9 6 0 108 0 53 34 2.53 102
H. Pennock L 23 31 6 4 114 6 5 1 102 2 26 40 3.32 78
L. Bader R 29 17 1 0 41 2 0 1 51 1 19 15 2.41 107
W. Wyckoff R 25 1 0 0 5 0 0 0 4 0 4 1 1.80 143
TOTAL 157 115 1421 96 56 6 1197 11 411 510 2.19 118
Still, the Gray Eagle is way better than real-life center fielders Walker, Jimmy Walsh, and Chick Shorten, and the Boston ‘pen is ever-so-slightly better off with the departure of struggling youngster Sam Jones. I estimate that the Red Sox would improve from 90-62 to 96-56, but they’d still be in second place, three games behind the White Sox.
Treder:
Then comes 1918, and the plot thickens.
In the winter of 1917-18, with Frazee a little over a year into his ownership, the Red Sox swung two blockbuster deals, both with Connie Mack’s Philadelphia A’s. The first, occurring in Dec. 1917, was more a purchase than a trade, sending three journeymen and a whopping bundle of $60,000 to Mack in exchange for Wally Schang (one of the best-hitting catchers in baseball), “Bullet Joe” Bush (a 25-year-old pitcher who was developing into one of the league’s better starters), and Amos Strunk (a fine all-around outfielder). Obviously Mack’s motivation was financial, as it was an entirely one-sided talent exchange, and just as obviously for our purposes it’s a deal we’re happy to allow to go through.
But the second transaction, completed two months later, was less satisfactory for Boston: the Red Sox traded their star third baseman Larry Gardner, their primary center fielder Tilly Walker, and a backup catcher to Philadelphia, and received first baseman Stuffy McInnis. The 27-year-old McInnis was a strong talent (featuring defensive prowess in an era when first base defense mattered a lot), but not a major star; Boston surrendered far too much to get him. This is a deal we’re going to assume didn’t take place (and since we don’t have Walker on hand anyway, perhaps it’s a moot point).
The other major issue with 1918 is that this was when Red Sox manager Ed Barrow, in one of the most momentous decisions in baseball history, in mid-season shifted his sensational 23-year-old ace pitcher Babe Ruth out of the mound rotation, and began playing him as an everyday hitter instead. Initially Barrow played Ruth at first base, and then tried him in center field, before settling on left field as his position at which to play full time.
By no means will we argue with the logic that the Bambino, terrific pitcher though he was, would add more value focusing on his incredible hitting. But our Red Sox roster is different than the one Barrow actually dealt with: we have that guy named Speaker handling center field, which bumps Strunk over to left, while Harry Hooper continues to have right field locked down. Thus there’s no vacancy for Ruth in the outfield.
But meanwhile we didn’t acquire Stuffy McInnis to play first base. Instead we have incumbent Dick Hoblitzel still there, and not hitting a lick. So in our scenario Barrow won’t just experiment with Ruth at first base: that’s the position he’ll play on a regular basis, where as a left-handed thrower (making the force-out throw to second easier) accustomed to handling ground balls as a pitcher, there’s no reason to imagine Ruth wouldn’t have performed quite adequately.
1918
Pos Player B Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS+
1B B. Ruth L 23 95 317 50 95 26 11 11 70 58 58 .300 .411 .555 194
2B D. Shean R 34 115 425 58 112 16 3 0 35 40 25 .264 .331 .315 97
SS E. Scott R 25 126 443 40 98 11 5 0 44 12 16 .221 .242 .269 55
3B L. Gardner L 32 126 463 50 131 23 6 1 55 45 20 .283 .336 .365 113
RF H. Hooper L 30 126 474 81 137 26 13 1 45 75 25 .289 .391 .405 142
CF T. Speaker L 30 126 471 73 144 32 11 0 65 64 9 .306 .384 .420 145
LF A. Strunk L 29 114 413 50 106 18 9 0 36 36 13 .257 .316 .344 101
C W. Schang B 28 88 225 36 55 7 1 0 21 46 35 .244 .377 .284 101
C S. Agnew R 31 65 179 10 30 7 0 0 5 10 23 .168 .218 .207 29
1B D. Hoblitzel L 29 47 139 14 29 4 0 0 11 16 8 .209 .291 .237 61
OF G. Whiteman R 35 36 71 8 18 4 0 0 9 6 3 .254 .305 .310 87
Others 62 7 11 2 0 0 4 6 5 .177 .254 .210 41
Pitchers 327 22 75 7 5 0 23 23 58 .229 .276 .281 69
TOTAL 4009 499 1041 183 64 13 423 437 298 .260 .324 .347 107
Pitcher T Age G GS CG IP W L SV H HR BB SO ERA ERA+
C. Mays R 26 35 33 30 293 25 9 0 222 2 81 114 2.12 127
J. Bush R 25 36 31 26 273 19 12 2 233 3 91 125 2.01 134
B. Ruth L 23 20 19 18 166 15 5 0 121 1 49 40 2.16 124
D. Leonard L 26 16 16 12 126 9 5 0 115 0 53 47 2.65 102
L. Bader R 30 14 11 5 74 6 6 0 68 3 32 27 3.16 85
J. Enzmann R 28 30 14 8 137 6 6 2 128 2 29 38 2.24 120
W. Kinney L 24 5 0 0 15 0 0 0 5 0 8 4 1.80 149
V. Molyneaux R 29 6 0 0 11 1 0 0 3 0 8 1 3.38 80
Others 2 1 25 0 2 0 31 1 8 7 3.24 83
TOTAL 126 100 1120 81 45 4 926 12 359 403 2.27 118
The actual Red Sox won the 1918 pennant in a war-abbreviated season (and the World Series as well, the last one they’d capture for, well, quite a while). Our Red Sox, with the Gray Eagle soaring in center and Gardner still in bloom at third, are an even better version of that ball club. The actual Bosox went 75-51; our boys run away with it at 81-45.
Namee:
The undone transactions are now piling up so fast it’s hard to keep track of them.
In Dec. 1918 the long string of deals with the Yankees commenced: Boston traded pitchers Dutch Leonard and Ernie Shore along with left fielder Duffy Lewis to New York for a bunch of mediocrities (including pitcher Slim Love) and $15,000. Cancel that one.
Then in January, they traded with the Tigers for weak-hitting third baseman Ossie Vitt, surrendering Slim Love, outfielder Chick Shorten, and backup catcher Eddie Ainsmith. With Larry Gardner at third and Love not on the roster, we can safely nix this trade.
The biggest mistake of all came in July 1919, when Boston sent ace Carl Mays to the Yankees in exchange for two unexciting players and (more to the point) $40,000. Mays would proceed to post a 1.65 ERA the rest of the season, and win a combined 53 games over next two years. We’re definitely nullifying this one.
1919
Pos Player B Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS+
1B B. Ruth L 24 130 432 105 139 34 12 29 115 101 58 .322 .456 .657 219
2B R. Shannon B 22 80 290 36 75 11 7 0 17 17 42 .259 .313 .345 89
SS E. Scott R 26 138 507 41 141 19 0 0 38 19 26 .278 .306 .316 79
3B L. Gardner L 33 138 525 63 148 27 6 2 74 36 32 .282 .332 .368 101
RF H. Hooper L 31 128 491 76 131 25 6 3 49 79 28 .267 .374 .360 112
CF T. Speaker L 31 134 496 78 138 36 11 2 59 71 13 .278 .377 .407 126
LF B. Roth R 26 57 167 24 43 6 3 0 17 17 24 .257 .337 .329 92
C W. Schang B 29 113 330 43 101 16 3 0 55 71 42 .306 .436 .373 134
OF A. Strunk L 30 46 157 21 43 10 2 0 13 11 11 .274 .325 .363 98
OF D. Lewis R 31 64 144 17 37 6 1 2 22 4 11 .257 .277 .354 81
C E. Ainsmith R 29 53 142 16 38 7 4 1 12 17 12 .268 .346 .394 113
OF C. Shorten L 27 63 134 18 41 4 2 0 11 11 7 .306 .359 .366 109
2B J. Barry R 32 31 108 13 26 5 1 0 2 5 5 .241 .293 .306 72
2B D. Shean R 35 29 100 4 14 0 0 0 8 5 7 .140 .189 .140 -5
1B D. Gainer R 32 27 67 3 16 3 1 0 8 7 15 .239 .320 .313 83
S3 M. McNally R 25 33 42 10 11 4 0 0 6 1 2 .262 .279 .357 82
Others 71 13 22 2 0 0 8 7 5 .310 .363 .338 102
Pitchers 367 26 62 8 0 0 24 16 59 .169 .202 .191 13
TOTAL 4570 607 1226 223 59 39 538 495 399 .268 .346 .368 113
Pitcher T Age G GS CG IP W L SV H HR BB SO ERA ERA+
C. Mays R 27 34 29 26 267 19 11 2 215 5 75 109 1.99 152
H. Pennock L 25 32 26 16 219 17 8 0 217 2 48 70 2.67 113
D. Leonard L 27 29 28 18 218 17 11 0 195 7 62 104 2.56 118
B. Ruth L 24 17 15 12 133 9 4 1 144 2 58 30 2.90 104
W. Hoyt R 19 13 11 6 105 4 5 0 96 1 22 28 3.16 95
E. Shore R 28 18 11 3 90 5 8 0 93 4 40 23 3.90 77
B. James R 32 13 7 4 73 3 5 0 73 2 39 12 4.09 74
J. Enzmann R 29 14 4 2 55 3 2 0 66 0 8 13 2.28 133
G. Dumont R 23 13 2 0 35 0 4 0 45 1 19 12 4.33 70
Others 5 1 29 0 2 0 37 0 11 14 4.97 61
TOTAL 138 138 88 1225 77 60 3 1181 24 382 415 2.83 107
The real-life Red Sox—the defending champs—went just 66-71 in another war-shortened schedule, and finished in the second division for the first time in over a decade. Our version still doesn’t catch the Black Sox, but they’re a more-than-respectable 77-60, and well-positioned to contend in 1920.
You know what’s coming next: Two days after New Year’s in 1920, Boston sent George Ruth to the Yankees for $100,000 (as well as a very-low-interest loan of $350,000). I know you won’t let them make that deal, so we now face the question of questions: What if the Red Sox had never sold the Babe?
Treder:
Hmmm … give me a week to think about it!
Next installment
Part 2: 1920-1922