The Virtual 1946-1949 St. Louis Cardinals (Part 2)
Last time, we imagined that the late 1940s St. Louis Cardinals hadn’t sold off first baseman Johnny Mize, catcher Walker Cooper, and center fielder Johnny Wyrostek. Now we’ll see how that scenario would likely have played out.
I’ve taken my best guesstimate at what Mize’s, Cooper’s, and Wyrostek’s stats would have been had they played for the Cardinals, factoring in park effects, and that they wouldn’t have had to face the St. Louis pitching staff in one-seventh of their games. Theirs and everyone else’s playing time is projected accordingly.
1946
Mize suffered a broken hand in 1946, and missed about one-third of the season, but he hit up a storm when he was in the lineup. I envision the rookie Dick Sisler being called up and getting most of the first base starts in The Big Cat’s absence.
Cooper had an elbow injury and missed considerable playing time as well, and his hitting appears to have been somewhat inhibited. In his stead, the rookie Joe Garagiola and the sophomore Del Rice would have gotten some chances.
Wyrostek, given the opportunity, would demonstrably beat out Terry Moore, Harry Walker, and Buster Adams for the first-string center field job as the season progressed.
The predominant starting lineup would likely be:
1. Slaughter, rf
2. Schoendienst, 2b or Wyrostek, cf
3. Musial, lf
4. Mize, 1b
5. Kurowski, 3b
6. Cooper, c
7. Wyrostek, cf or Schoendienst, 2b
8. Marion, ss
9. pitcher
Here’s our guess at what this would have yielded:
Pos Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS+
1B Mize 377 70 136 24 3 18 79 65 26 .361 .455 .584 189
2B Schoendienst 582 74 163 27 5 0 47 36 26 .281 .322 .343 86
SS Marion 498 53 116 29 4 3 50 59 53 .233 .318 .325 80
3B Kurowski 519 78 156 32 5 14 94 72 47 .301 .391 .462 138
RF Slaughter 627 108 188 31 8 19 71 71 42 .300 .374 .465 133
CF Wyrostek 363 62 109 22 3 5 45 47 26 .300 .380 .419 123
LF Musial 624 120 228 50 20 16 116 73 31 .365 .434 .587 183
C Cooper 280 33 79 13 1 6 49 18 12 .282 .326 .400 102
REGULARS 3870 598 1176 228 49 81 551 441 263 .304 .375 .450 130
C Garagiola 141 14 33 3 1 2 15 15 18 .234 .308 .312 76
OF Adams 130 16 23 4 0 4 17 21 21 .177 .292 .295 73
O1 Walker 138 19 31 5 2 1 13 11 12 .225 .282 .312 86
OF Moore 139 16 36 6 1 1 14 9 14 .259 .304 .331 85
1B Sisler 118 9 30 5 1 1 20 7 14 .254 .296 .339 86
C Rice 104 8 28 5 1 1 10 6 12 .269 .309 .365 89
2B Klein 93 12 18 3 0 1 5 9 7 .194 .265 .258 46
S2 Cross 69 17 15 3 0 0 6 10 8 .217 .316 .261 62
3O Dusak 69 10 15 2 0 2 10 7 17 .217 .289 .333 74
Others 56 7 10 3 0 1 6 9 11 .179 .292 .286 62
BENCH 1057 128 239 39 6 14 116 104 134 .226 .295 .313 70
PITCHERS 448 29 85 12 2 0 38 19 80 .190 .223 .225 25
TOTAL 5375 755 1500 279 57 95 705 564 477 .279 .347 .405 117
1946 was a low-scoring year (my guess is that both leagues worked through their remaining inventory of inferior-quality wartime baseballs for much of the season). This Cardinals’ lineup would be utterly dominant in that environment, leading the league in almost everything, and outscoring everyone else by a wide margin. The 25-year-old Stan Musial was spectacular, of course, and teamed with Mize, Enos Slaughter, and Whitey Kurowski he would anchor a highly potent offensive core.
Assuming the team would have allowed the same number of runs they actually did (545)—and there’s little reason to assume otherwise—the Pythagorean projection suggests a won-lost record of 101-53, easily surpassing the Dodgers for first place. If these Cardinals outperformed their Pythag by one win, as did their actual ’46 counterparts, then it would be 102-52. In either case, it would be, as it was in reality, the fourth Redbird pennant in five seasons.
1947
This time both Mize and Cooper were healthy all year long, and in peak form. Musial had (for him) something of an off-season; he was merely excellent instead of magnificent, but Kurowski had the best year of his career. 1947 was a heavy-hitting season in the National League, but still this Cardinals’ offense would steamroll the opposition.
Pos Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS+
1B Mize 591 120 193 37 2 38 122 78 39 .327 .405 .589 157
2B Schoendienst 593 68 150 22 8 3 51 43 24 .253 .303 .332 66
SS Marion 540 57 147 19 6 4 69 49 58 .272 .334 .352 79
3B Kurowski 518 101 161 27 6 27 104 88 56 .311 .411 .542 147
RF Slaughter 565 106 166 32 13 10 64 60 28 .294 .362 .452 111
CF Wyrostek 409 68 116 22 6 5 45 55 38 .284 .369 .403 101
LF Musial 592 117 185 30 13 19 95 81 24 .313 .395 .503 133
C Cooper 464 74 153 29 7 23 101 23 36 .330 .361 .571 140
REGULARS 4272 711 1271 218 61 129 651 477 303 .298 .368 .468 117
OF Moore 153 19 40 5 0 2 12 12 14 .261 .315 .333 69
O3 Dusak 109 21 29 2 2 2 11 15 13 .266 .355 .376 91
OF Northey 104 15 29 6 1 5 21 15 11 .279 .370 .500 113
C Garagiola 94 12 22 5 1 2 14 18 9 .234 .357 .372 91
C Rice 87 8 17 2 1 3 10 10 14 .195 .278 .345 57
3S Cross 49 4 5 1 0 0 3 10 6 .102 .254 .122 1
PH Medwick 50 5 14 3 0 1 10 5 5 .280 .345 .400 118
2B Jones 37 3 8 2 0 0 2 1 6 .216 .237 .270 58
Others 43 6 9 1 0 0 2 5 7 .209 .292 .233 38
BENCH 726 93 173 27 5 15 85 91 85 .238 .323 .351 76
PITCHERS 469 27 95 11 3 0 30 17 87 .203 .230 .239 23
TOTAL 5467 831 1539 256 69 144 766 585 475 .282 .351 .433 111
This total of 831 runs scored would be the most by any Cardinals’ ball club since 1930. The 144 homers would set a franchise record that wouldn’t be topped until 1998, when another St. Louis first baseman would have a pretty good year in the cleanup role.
I have these Cardinals executing a trade in early 1947 that actually occurred: Harry Walker along with second-line pitcher Freddy Schmidt to the Phillies in May for power-hitting outfielder Ron Northey. This was a sensible trade from the St. Louis perspective, even though (as we examined here) Walker would bust out with a fluke great season over the remainder of ’47. But the roly-poly Northey, though of limited defensive aptitude, swung a terrific left-handed bat, and would serve as a highly useful pinch hitter and occasional starter.
Pythagoras indicates a record of 97-57 for this team. Even if they would fall a couple of games short of their Pythagorean mark, as the ’47 Cards actually did, at 95-59 they would still win the National League pennant, nosing ahead of the Jackie Robinson-led Dodgers (a team that significantly overperformed its Pythagorean record), making it five St. Louis flags in six years.
1948
This lineup would have to contend with three injury situations. First, I don’t know what it was, but clearly some sort of problem nagged Red Schoendienst in 1948, as he appeared in the field in just 96 games, while pinch-hitting quite a lot. In this scenario, as in reality, utility men Ralph LaPointe and Erv Dusak would fill in for him at second base. Second, Walker Cooper encountered a knee injury, and so here once again Garagiola and Rice would see some action.
Most significantly, the 30-year-old Whitey Kurowski suffered a serious injury to his right arm in ’48, which hampered his throwing, and completely sapped his power at the plate. He would attempt to battle through it, but with the limited sports medicine available at the time, Kurowski’s career would effectively be over in 1949: a notable star, a potential borderline Hall of Famer, cut down with quite possibly many good years yet to come. In his stead in ’48, the Cardinals deployed a 33-year-old career minor leaguer named Don Lang at third base, who did okay but was no Kurowski.
Pos Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS+
1B Mize 565 107 177 37 4 30 125 96 36 .313 .413 .552 153
2B Schoendienst 388 53 105 20 4 4 43 27 15 .272 .319 .373 82
SS Marion 553 58 139 25 4 4 50 36 53 .252 .298 .333 66
3B Lang 323 30 87 14 1 4 31 47 38 .269 .364 .356 91
RF Slaughter 571 113 180 28 11 11 67 83 30 .321 .409 .470 132
CF Wyrostek 461 74 132 24 9 12 56 49 57 .286 .355 .456 113
LF Musial 616 139 232 46 18 39 131 80 34 .377 .448 .700 199
C Cooper 290 38 82 16 0 12 48 29 28 .283 .348 .462 112
REGULARS 3766 612 1135 210 51 116 551 447 291 .301 .375 .477 124
3B Kurowski 220 34 47 8 0 2 33 42 28 .214 .352 .277 68
C Garagiola 162 20 34 7 0 4 20 30 17 .210 .333 .327 75
2S LaPointe 167 18 37 2 0 0 11 13 15 .222 .278 .234 36
C Rice 145 12 27 4 0 2 17 18 24 .186 .276 .255 41
23O Dusak 124 17 24 3 1 2 8 19 23 .194 .301 .282 55
OF Northey 123 19 38 5 0 6 27 18 13 .309 .397 .496 135
OF Moore 104 14 23 5 0 2 9 13 7 .221 .308 .327 68
21 Jones 60 7 14 2 1 1 10 4 6 .233 .281 .350 66
C Baker 40 4 11 3 0 0 5 5 3 .275 .356 .350 87
Others 48 6 11 4 1 0 4 4 7 .229 .288 .354 69
BENCH 1193 151 266 43 3 19 144 166 143 .223 .318 .312 67
PITCHERS 441 31 82 10 2 1 33 18 80 .186 .218 .224 17
TOTAL 5400 794 1483 263 56 136 728 631 514 .275 .351 .420 110
These issues would meaningfully inhibit the productivity of this lineup. But on the plus side: Musial was unbelievable, delivering his greatest year, while the 35-year-old Mize had yet another terrific season, and Slaughter was typically excellent. It adds up to another robust team-wide offensive performance, not quite best in the league in OPS+, but close behind that of the Boston Braves.
Whether it would have been good enough to secure another pennant for the Cardinals is a good question. This offense yields a Pythagorean record for St. Louis of 93-61, allowing them to slip ahead of those Spahn-and-Sain Braves, who won the flag with a 91-62 mark. However, the Braves’ Pythag record was 93-60, and the actual 1948 Cardinals underperformed their projection by two wins. Had Boston not underperformed against theirs, and/or had these ’48 Cardinals fallen short of their run-indicated win total, St. Louis would finish in second by an eyelash.
This race therefore might be too close to call, but it’s clear that had these Cardinals not won their sixth pennant in seven seasons, they would have missed it by only the narrowest of margins.
1949
Mize, bothered by a chronic sore shoulder in his age-36 season, began to decline, though he was still dangerous. Cooper, at 34, slumped through the early season before picking up the pace in the second half; as a consequence of that I have Garagiola here taking a fair amount of the starts against right-handers. In place of the ailing Kurowski at third base, the Cards used a couple of rookies: Eddie Kazak and Tommy Glaviano, both of whom did pretty well.
Pos Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS+
1B Mize 411 63 115 21 0 14 71 55 20 .280 .365 .433 109
2B Schoendienst 592 79 176 23 2 3 63 47 17 .297 .351 .356 86
SS Marion 515 63 140 31 2 5 73 37 42 .272 .323 .369 81
3B Kazak 326 44 99 15 3 6 47 29 17 .304 .362 .423 106
RF Slaughter 588 111 196 35 13 13 71 81 38 .336 .418 .511 143
CF Wyrostek 474 71 127 28 4 8 52 61 61 .268 .351 .395 96
LF Musial 617 130 209 41 13 36 126 108 38 .339 .437 .622 175
C Cooper 303 32 83 13 3 12 58 20 21 .274 .319 .455 101
REGULARS 3826 593 1145 207 40 97 561 438 254 .299 .371 .450 115
3B Glaviano 258 33 69 16 1 6 38 41 35 .267 .380 .407 107
1B Jones 190 25 56 10 1 4 31 8 10 .295 .323 .421 94
C Garagiola 161 17 41 9 0 2 18 20 13 .255 .337 .348 80
OF Northey 133 14 34 9 1 3 25 15 8 .256 .331 .406 93
OF Diering 123 20 31 7 2 1 13 11 17 .252 .313 .366 78
S23 Klein 114 25 25 6 0 2 12 22 20 .219 .355 .325 80
C Rice 114 10 26 6 0 1 12 11 17 .228 .296 .307 59
2B Hemus 33 8 11 1 0 0 2 7 3 .333 .450 .364 116
Others 120 13 27 6 1 1 10 11 19 .225 .290 .317 59
BENCH 1246 165 320 70 6 20 161 146 142 .257 .335 .371 85
PITCHERS 443 45 82 7 1 1 33 28 90 .185 .234 .212 18
TOTAL 5515 803 1547 284 47 118 755 612 486 .280 .352 .413 108
With Musial and Slaughter leading the way, this Cardinal lineup would be formidable, not quite as good as that featured by the blossoming Boys of Summer Dodgers, but almost. And the Cards’ pitching was, as we saw last time, completely brilliant, far and away the best in the league with an ERA+ of 121.
So isn’t this interesting: the actual National League that season featured a sensational race between those Dodgers and Cardinals, with Brooklyn emerging as the winner by the margin of a single game, 97-57 to 96-58. Our Cardinals, assuming they allowed the same number of runs as the actual Cardinals, yield a Pythagorean record of 97-57: a dead heat.
But: the Dodgers’ Pythagorean record was 98-56. So if we assume that both teams performed exactly to their projections, then Brooklyn wins it by one game.
But: the actual Cardinals overperformed their Pythagorean projection by four wins. So if we assume that both teams performed against their projections as they actually did, then St. Louis wins it by five games, 101-53 to 96-58.
But: is our assumption valid, that these Cards would have allowed exactly as many runs as the real Redbirds? Defensively, the actual Cardinals were almost certainly a bit better than this version: Nippy Jones and Rocky Nelson were no doubt better fielding first basemen than Johnny Mize in 1949; Del Rice was unquestionably a better defensive catcher than Walker Cooper; and Chuck Diering was very likely a better defensive center fielder than Johnny Wyrostek. So on that basis these Cards would probably allow a few more runs, dropping their Pythagorean record down by a few wins.
But: is our assumption valid, that these Cards would have employed exactly the same pitching staff as the real Redbirds? That’s been our assumption all along, and through 1948 I think it was a sound one. However, in January of 1949 the actual Cardinals sold one of their best pitchers, solid and steady workhorse right-hander Murry Dickson, to the Pirates for $125,000. But the basis of this alternative scenario has been a Cardinals’ operation that didn’t engage in that kind of dealing: after all, these Cardinals didn’t sell Mize, Cooper, and Wyrostek. I’d say it’s only reasonable to have these Cardinals turning down the offer for Dickson as well, figuring that with him they’d have a better chance at realizing the $125,000 in World Series revenue.
So let’s assume they kept Dickson on board. He had his customary fine season in 1949, and Dickson’s presence would rid the St. Louis pitching staff of its weakest member (the marginal Bill Reeder), and ease the strain on everyone else. It’s fair to imagine that Dickson’s contribution would balance out the defensive shortcomings of Mize, Cooper, and Wyrostek, thus making our original Pythagorean assumption valid.
Given all that: one can err on the side of prudence and say that these Cardinals wouldn’t have come out on top of the extremely close races in both 1948 and 1949, but it’s equally prudent to conclude that it’s quite likely they would have emerged victorious in one of the two cliffhangers. Seeing as the actual Cardinals fell short by just one game in ’49, we can settle with the interpretation that these stronger-than-actual Cardinals finished a close second in ’48 but won their sixth pennant in eight seasons in 1949.
1950 and Beyond
The actual 1950 Cardinals fell out of contention, coming in fifth place at 78-75, their least competitive showing since 1938. Our version, with Mize, Cooper, Wyrostek, and Dickson on the roster, would certainly have been a stronger team than that, but without doing the math I’ll say it’s highly unlikely they would’ve been enough to make up the 12.5 games by which St. Louis fell short. In that season and those that followed, age began to overtake several key Cardinals, and the remarkable St. Louis farm system (as we saw here), now facing competition for amateur talent with numerous other organizations in a way they hadn’t in the past, was unable to restock the roster as efficiently as before. The 1950s would be a decade of frustration for the franchise, and it’s reasonable to conclude that the presence of Mize, Cooper, Wyrostek and Dickson at the decade’s outset wouldn’t have been able to significantly forestall that eventuality.
But they would have been able to ensure that the Cardinals of the late 1940s would be a great team, and that the franchise over the decade of the 1940s would have been one of history’s foremost dynasties.
References & Resources
The rules for this game are the same as we followed in our examinations of the 1930 Giants and the 1954 Indians: we re-tool an historical team’s roster, not by invoking any acquisitions they didn’t actually make, but instead by simply erasing a few transactions they did make.