The Virtual 1954 Cleveland Indians: Part Two
Last time we introduced the question of whether the amazingly successful 111-43 1954 Cleveland Indians might realistically have done even better. Executing trades in prior seasons that sent catcher Sherm Lollar, first baseman Mickey Vernon, outfielder Minnie Miñoso, and shortstop Ray Boone packing, and receiving little in the way of long-term talent in return, the ’54 Indians won all those games despite getting modest production from their first basemen, and downright weak hitting from their regulars at catcher, right field, and shortstop.
What Might Have Been: Raw Version
So for the first pass, let’s swap out first baseman Vic Wertz, shortstop George Strickland, right fielder Dave Philley, and catcher Jim Hegan from the 1954 Cleveland lineup, and replace them with Vernon, Boone, Miñoso, and Lollar. For now, we’ll leave the aggregate production from the bench alone, and there’s no reason to mess with the pitchers’ hitting line. Here’s what this yields:
Pos Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B Vernon 597 90 173 33 14 20 97 61 61 .290 .356 .492 .848 137
2B Avila 555 112 189 27 2 15 67 59 31 .341 .404 .477 .881 139
SS Boone 543 76 160 19 7 20 85 71 53 .295 .376 .466 .842 132
3B Rosen 466 76 140 20 2 24 102 85 43 .300 .408 .506 .915 147
RF Miñoso 568 119 182 29 18 19 116 77 46 .320 .402 .535 .937 155
CF Doby 577 94 157 18 4 32 126 85 94 .272 .366 .484 .849 129
LF Smith 481 101 135 29 6 11 50 88 65 .281 .392 .435 .826 127
C Lollar 316 31 77 13 0 7 34 37 28 .244 .323 .351 .674 86
REGULARS 4103 699 1213 188 53 148 677 563 421 .296 .381 .476 .856 132
BENCH 1163 142 306 33 9 28 154 108 131 .263 .329 .379 .708 93
PITCHERS 449 42 82 10 1 3 30 32 106 .183 .239 .229 .468 28
TOTAL 5715 883 1601 231 63 179 861 703 658 .280 .360 .437 .797 123
Suddenly the patchwork quilt of strengths and weaknesses becomes something resembling an All-Star Team.
One interesting thing to note, however, is that replacing Hegan with Lollar at catcher doesn’t yield a whole lot of improvement. That’s because Lollar in 1954 had his worst hitting year between 1949 and 1962; in any other season, Lollar’s offense would dwarf Hegan’s. But since our focus here is 1954, we’re forced to accept that our exchange of catchers is pretty much a wash.
But everywhere else, the improvement is dramatic: the good-hitting ’54 Indians would have been a great-hitting team. The strengths of the actual Cleveland lineup remain in place:
– Bobby Avila was a very good second baseman having a career year at age 30. Avila was one of the few Mexicans in the major leagues at the time, and was a well-educated and charismatic fellow who in later years would serve as president of the Mexican League, as well as mayor of his native Veracruz.
– The muscular Al “Flip” Rosen in 1954 had begun to be bothered by the back trouble that would soon prematurely end his playing career. Excellent as his 1954 performance was, it was a big step down from his stunningly brilliant 1953 MVP performance, one of the few greatest seasons ever presented by a third baseman. After his forced athletic retirement at age 32, Rosen became a successful stock and bond trader, then returned to baseball in an executive capacity in the 1970s, and had a terrific run as GM of the San Francisco Giants in the mid-to-late 1980s.
– Larry Doby, the first black player in the American League, had his typical outstanding year in 1954. A batting-average-inhibiting proclivity to strike out was the only weakness in Doby’s game, offensively or defensively. Ever the pioneer, after his major league playing career Doby would become one of the first Americans to play professionally in Japan, and following that he would be among the first African-Americans to coach and manage in the majors.
– Al “Fuzzy” Smith was another former Negro Leaguer who had an excellent year in his first full major league season at age 26 in 1954. He would be hampered off and on in later years by nagging injuries, but when at his best, as he was here, Smith combined outstanding on-base ability with good power.
And to them we have added:
– Mickey Vernon, whose long and excellent career took a rather odd shape, with down years at ages 29, 30, and 32, bracketed by peak performances at ages 28 and 35-37 (smoothing out that oddity and others like it is the subject of an article in the works, coming soon!). When at the top of his game, as he was in ’54, Vernon was one of the best all-around first basemen in baseball.
– Ray Boone, whom as we discussed last time hit far better beginning at age 29 than he had as a younger player, belatedly fulfilling his promise. When his name comes up today, it’s almost always limited to the context of his being Bob’s dad and Bret and Aaron’s grandpa, but Boone The Elder was among the best run producers in the mid-1950s American League.
– Minnie Miñoso, whose career in baseball has been so long and includes so many interesting elements—his belated entry into the majors, his pioneering status as the player who integrated the Chicago White Sox roster and as the first black Latin major league star, the enduring mystery of his true age, his Bill Veeck-driven reactivation stunts in 1976 and 1980, and his jovial, ever-popular personality—that all too often overlooked is just what a terrific ballplayer Miñoso was. His was the complete package: speed, power, defense, and tremendous on-base skill, and he was extraordinarily consistent and durable to boot.
– Sherm Lollar, whom as we noted above wouldn’t have added much to the 1954 Indians—but that’s another way of saying that a severe off-year from Lollar was about equal to a good year from Jim Hegan. Entirely overshadowed by the tremendous feats of Yogi Berra and Roy Campanella, Lollar was largely ignored by New York-centric sportswriters (it didn’t help that Lollar had his best years in his 30s, after the image of him as just-pretty-good was ingrained), and is largely forgotten today, but this guy could play.
So how might such a lineup have actually performed for Cleveland in 1954?
What Might Have Been: Refined Version
Doing our best to factor everything in: park effects, opposing pitching staffs, playing time, and so on, we see below my best guess. I’ve assumed that the most frequent batting order manager Al Lopez would employ would be as follows:
1. Miñoso, lf
2. Avila, 2b
3. Vernon, 1b
4. Rosen, 3b
5. Doby, cf
6. Boone, ss
7. Smith, rf
8. Lollar, c
9. pitcher
Pos Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B Vernon 583 101 167 35 9 28 100 64 56 .286 .357 .521 .878 137
2B Avila 571 116 195 28 2 15 71 61 32 .342 .405 .476 .881 140
SS Boone 465 61 129 17 6 19 74 61 47 .277 .361 .462 .824 123
3B Rosen 478 90 144 20 2 25 106 87 44 .301 .409 .508 .917 149
RF Smith 409 68 114 25 5 9 54 74 55 .279 .389 .430 .820 123
CF Doby 583 95 158 18 4 32 129 85 95 .271 .364 .480 .844 129
LF Miñoso 597 122 188 30 13 25 81 83 48 .315 .399 .534 .933 153
C Lollar 316 37 78 13 0 8 44 38 29 .247 .328 .364 .692 88
REGULARS 4002 690 1173 186 41 161 659 553 406 .293 .379 .481 .860 133
OF Westlake 192 27 48 7 2 9 31 20 31 .250 .321 .448 .769 108
23 Majeski 121 10 34 4 0 3 19 7 14 .281 .320 .388 .709 92
SS Strickland 120 14 23 3 1 2 10 16 22 .192 .287 .283 .570 56
OF Pope 102 21 30 2 1 4 14 10 22 .294 .357 .451 .808 119
C Grasso 102 9 24 2 0 1 9 9 12 .235 .297 .284 .582 59
C Naragon 101 10 24 2 2 0 13 9 12 .238 .300 .297 .597 63
32 Regalado 63 7 14 2 0 1 6 5 6 .222 .279 .302 .581 58
PH Mitchell 60 6 17 1 0 1 7 9 1 .283 .377 .350 .727 99
others 13 0 3 0 1 0 2 1 3 .231 .286 .385 .670 81
BENCH 874 104 217 23 7 21 111 86 123 .248 .316 .363 .678 85
PITCHERS 458 44 83 10 1 3 32 33 108 .181 .236 .227 .463 27
TOTAL 5334 838 1473 219 49 185 802 672 637 .276 .357 .440 .797 123
I’m guessing that the sophomore Smith would gradually have won the first-string right field job from the veteran Wally Westlake. I’m also guessing that Boone would have seen a fair amount of action at third base when Rosen was out with his injuries; as you can see I’ve cast Boone as not quite the star hitter he actually was while playing third base full time in Detroit.
Vernon’s great first base glove would render the defensive specialist first baseman Bill Glynn as unnecessary, so Glynn’s roster spot has been given to a second backup catcher, Mickey Grasso, who would be needed because Lollar was less durable than Hegan in 1954, and the Indians would likely carry three catchers instead of two.
It adds up to a tremendous offense: these Indians would lead the league in runs, hits, homers (the total of 185 would set an American League record), walks, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging average, OPS, and OPS+. Their OPS+ of 123 would be the highest in the A.L. since 1936, and a figure not exceed in the American League since (it was surpassed in the N.L. by the Boys of Summer 1953 Dodgers, at 125, and the Big Red Machine 1976 Reds, at 129).
The Bottom Line
What kind of a won-lost record would such a team have forged? If we assume the same runs allowed total as achieved by the actual 1954 Indians (504), the Pythagorean Formula yields a record of 113-41 (.734). And if these ’54 Indians were able to outperform Pythagoras to the same extent the actual ’54 Indians did – by a factor of seven wins – we’re talking about a record of 120-34 (.779), shattering every mark in modern baseball history.
Such a runs-allowed assumption might not be justified, as the defensive hit our virtual Indians would take by primarily playing Boone at shortstop ahead of Strickland was significant. Moreover, Hegan’s defense was very likely superior to that of Lollar/Grasso, although probably not hugely so. These effects would be balanced to whatever degree by the defensive improvement created by Vernon’s presence at first base in place of Wertz, who was likely rather poor with the glove, being introduced to the position in mid-season. In the outfield, the 28(?)-year-old Miñoso was probably at least as good as Philley, who was a highly regarded defender (and had played mostly center field in his prior career) but was 34 years old in 1954 and clearly beginning to decline.
As for the pitchers, we can assume the staff would remain intact with the exception of right-hander Art Houtteman, who’d been acquired from Detroit in the 1953 Ray Boone trade. But a right-handed pitcher who went from Cleveland to the Tigers in that trade, Steve Gromek, had a better year than Houtteman in 1954 (the best year of Gromek’s fine career, in fact), so it’s reasonable to assume that with Gromek instead of Houtteman the Indians’ pitching wouldn’t have suffered any detriment.
All in all it isn’t clear that the virtual ’54 Indians would be substantially easier to score upon that the actual team. Based on just their own personnel they probably would have allowed a few more runs, but not a lot more. And, significantly, their pitchers wouldn’t have to face Miñoso, Vernon, or Boone in 22 games each; that’s at least several runs saved right there.
At the very least our version of the Indians would have taken the 1954 American League pennant in an even easier cakewalk than did the real Indians. And with this lineup in place, Cleveland might well have also surpassed the Yankees in one or more of the surrounding seasons in which they actually finished a strong second: 1951, ’52, ’53, and ’55. And in their peak performance of 1954, maybe the Indians wouldn’t have won 120 games, but that staggering achievement isn’t beyond the realm of reasonable possibility.