The virtual 1958-68 Giants, Reds, and Cardinals (Part 8: 1964-65)
Our grand excursion has taken us from the late 1950s fully into the mid-’60s:
1957-58
1958-59
1959-60
1960-61
1961-62
1962-63
1963-64
For the Giants and Reds, it’s been a thrill ride of great success, with the only frustration for each franchise being the presence of the other. Meanwhile, frustration has been the constant theme for St. Louis, while in reality the Cards captured a World Championship in 1964.
Giants: Actual Reds: Actual Cardinals: Actual
Year W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA
1958 80 74 3 727 698 76 78 4 695 623 72 82 5T 619 704
1959 83 71 3 705 613 74 80 5T 764 738 71 83 7 641 725
1960 79 75 5 671 631 67 87 6 640 692 86 68 3 639 616
1961 85 69 3 773 655 93 61 1 710 653 80 74 5 703 668
1962 103 62 1 878 690 98 64 3 802 685 84 78 6 774 664
1963 88 74 3 725 641 86 76 5 648 594 93 69 2 747 628
1964 90 72 4 656 587 92 70 2T 660 566 93 69 1 715 652
Giants: Virtual Reds: Virtual Cardinals: Virtual
Year W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA
1958 83 71 2T 747 692 73 81 5 683 637 77 77 4 640 677
1959 87 67 1T 737 615 87 67 1T 802 662 84 70 4 725 685
1960 93 61 1 709 561 76 78 6 705 666 86 68 4 661 632
1961 88 66 2 787 648 106 48 1 813 629 72 82 6 689 724
1962 103 59 1 800 632 101 61 2T 779 663 84 78 6 809 703
1963 97 65 3 726 578 100 62 1 704 540 80 82 6 664 668
1964 100 62 2 726 576 101 61 1 689 533 87 75 4 662 657
Who’ll get some satisfaction this time around?
The 1964-65 offseason: Actual deals we will make
None. How about that?
The 1964-65 offseason: Actual deals we will not make
Nov. 21, 1964: The San Francisco Giants traded outfielder Jose Cardenal to the California Angels for catcher Jack Hiatt.
We’ve examined this peculiar transaction before:
It was a trade that simply didn’t make sense from the Giants’ standpoint, and it worked out dismally. Cardenal, given a chance to play with the Angels in 1965, immediately became a solid regular, and played in the major leagues though 1980. Hiatt, with little opportunity to play given the crowd of Giants behind the plate, didn’t make the majors to stay until 1967, and never became anything more than a utility player. Cardenal would earn 212 Win Shares in his major league career, while Hiatt earned 48.
Dec. 4, 1964: The Cincinnati Reds traded infielder-outfielder Cesar Tovar to the Minnesota Twins for pitcher Gerry Arrigo.
And this similarly inscrutable one as well:
All along, the Reds’ handling of Tovar was, well, puzzling. After signing him at the age of 17 and immediately making him a first-string second baseman in the minors, the Cincinnati organization spent six years failing to promote this blazing-fast Venezuelan to the major leagues ….
Instead the Reds swapped Tovar for Gerry Arrigo, who was, to be sure, an intriguing young pitcher: a hard-throwing 23-year-old lefty. But he was one with dubious control, and a minor league track record that paled in comparison to Tovar’s.
Suffice to say that both Cardenal and Tovar presented minor league resumés of the sort that very rarely result in a trade before a chance to play in the majors. Moreover, in neither of these deals does the return provide a sensible explanation.
But, then, consider this fact: Cardenal and Tovar were both black Latins. And Hiatt and Arrigo were both white Americans.
And, then, consider this fact: in the 15-year period from October 1959 through October 1974, the Giants conducted a total of 95 transactions with other major league clubs. In these deals the Giants relinquished 27 African-American or Latin American players. They acquired just three players of color (Ozzie Virgil in 1965, Nate Oliver in 1968, and Dick Simpson in 1969), all of whom were throw-ins in deals in which the primary acquisition was a white player.
Consider that.
The Reds in this period didn’t demonstrate a pattern that stark. But Cincinnati as well made several key trades that were essentially black-for-white exchanges when they surrendered Curt Flood, Tony Gonzalez, Juan Pizarro, and, of course, Frank Robinson, and these deals were not balanced by trades for significant black talent.
Both the Giants and Reds in the 1950s and ‘60s were bold pioneers, leaders, in the scouting and signing of amateur players of color. The core stars developed by both franchises were black, either African-American or Latin American. But neither franchise demonstrated a corresponding eagerness to acquire players of color in the trade market, and both demonstrated a pattern of clumsy undervaluation of (or at least impatience with) young black players, surrendering them abruptly (in exchange for white players) before giving them a chance to develop: that describes not only these Cardenal and Tovar deals, but also Cincinnati’s Flood, Gonzalez, and Pizarro trades, and San Francisco’s handling of Leon Wagner, Andre Rodgers, and George Foster.
Our Giants and Reds are striving to avoid such blunders. Neither Cardenal nor Tovar will be dealt away here.
Dec. 14, 1964: The Cincinnati Reds traded pitcher Bob Purkey to the St. Louis Cardinals for pitcher Roger Craig and outfielder Charlie James.
Our Cardinals don’t have Craig, and in any case our Reds don’t want to deal away Purkey, who was quite effective in 1964.
Dec. 15, 1964: The St. Louis Cardinals purchased outfielder-first baseman Tito Francona from the Cleveland Indians.
We don’t have a spot for this veteran.
Jan., 1965: The San Francisco Giants traded catcher Tim Talton to the Kansas City Athletics for outfielder George Alusik.
He wasn’t much defensively, but Talton was a good hitter for average. It doesn’t make sense to toss away a left-handed-batting catcher in exchange for a right-handed-batting outfielder for which we have no need.
Feb. 1, 1965: The San Francisco Giants traded pitcher Billy O’Dell to the Milwaukee Braves for catcher Ed Bailey.
As we discussed here:
The lefty O’Dell had been a consistently fine pitcher for the Giants since they’d acquired him from Baltimore in 1959. But he encountered his first off-year in 1964, his ERA ballooning to 5.40, and he lost his spot in the starting rotation.
However, O’Dell’s peripherals in 1964 didn’t look nearly as bad as that ERA. Moreover, his starter versus reliever splits in ’64 were extreme: In his eight starts, O’Dell had been blown out with 46 hits in 34 innings and an 8.55 ERA, while in relief he was quite effective, allowing just 36 hits in 51 innings, and posting an ERA of 3.33. At the age of 33, it appeared as though O’Dell was entering the phase of his career in which he might no longer be capable of doing well as a starter, but might thrive in the bullpen.
We won’t deal O’Dell at this juncture, but will instead give him a full season to show what he can do as a reliever.
Feb. 11, 1965: The San Francisco Giants traded catcher Del Crandall to the Pittsburgh Pirates for pitcher Bob Priddy and outfielder-first baseman Bob Burda.
Our version of the Giants doesn’t include Crandall, and at this point in our scenario the Pirates have neither Priddy nor Burda anyway.
The 1964-65 offseason: Deals we will invoke
Oct., 1964: The Cincinnati Reds released first baseman Wally Moon.
He’s had a fine run in Cincinnati, but we don’t see him generating any meaningful trade value now. So it’s time to free up the roster room.
Dec. 7, 1964: The St. Louis Cardinals traded outfielder Johnny Lewis to the New York Mets for infielder Elio Chacon and cash.
Actually on this date the Cardinals traded Lewis to the Mets along with pitcher Gordie Richardson for Chacon and pitcher Tracy Stallard. We like Stallard, but we see our Ray Sadecki-less staff as having more need for the left-hander Richardson than the right-hander Stallard.
Dec. 9, 1964: The San Francisco Giants traded infielder Jose Pagan to the Pittsburgh Pirates for infielder Roberto Peña.
Peña is a modest prospect we’ll probably just park in triple-A, but we’re ready to say adios to Pagan’s backsliding performance.
Dec. 14, 1964: The St. Louis Cardinals traded first baseman Bill White to the Cincinnati Reds for outfielder-infielder Curt Flood, catcher-first baseman Don Pavletich, and outfielders Art Shamsky and Ted Savage.
Woah, Nelly!
It isn’t as big a bombshell as when our Cardinals traded away Ken Boyer back in 1960, but this is pretty doggone explosive. And the reasoning is essentially the same as it was for our Cards back in 1960: being honest with ourselves, we simply don’t see our current nucleus as plausibly pennant-bound.
We love White, but he’s in his thirties now, and he’s never going to generate more trade value than he is today. And what a bountiful package of trade value this is. The not-yet-27-year-old Flood has been perpetually in search of a position in Cincinnati, but we love the idea of seeing how he’ll do as a full-time center fielder. And Pavletich and Shamsky are serious young bats.
From the perspective of our Reds, it’s leveraging some of our exceptional depth into a single star performer who’s as well-rounded and consistent as they come. White hasn’t yet begun to decline, so we can confidently expect at least a couple of years of first-rate production.
Dec. 15, 1964: The St. Louis Cardinals traded shortstop Dick Schofield to the San Francisco Giants for outfielder Matty Alou, infielder Gil Garrido, and cash.
So, we embrace the rebuilding spirit in St. Louis. Schofield has been a steady performer, but he’s turning 30 and we don’t see him as the regular shortstop of a future Cardinals championship club. We’ll commit to youth at the position and see what develops, and we’ll give the 26-year-old Alou—who’s stagnated in San Francisco after looking like he might be something special—an opportunity in our outfield.
As for our Giants, a short-term horizon properly prevails. We’ve gotten a decent run from Andre Rodgers at shortstop, but his range is beginning to decline. Schofield shores us up defensively, and allows us to slide Rodgers over to second base.
Dec. 15, 1964: The St. Louis Cardinals traded third baseman Jim Davenport to the Pittsburgh Pirates for pitchers Earl Francis and John Gelnar and cash.
And our St. Louisans will complete the infield bust-up by scrapping the 31-year-old Davenport, who’d hit surprisingly well for us in 1961-62 but then quickly faded. Third base is another spot where we’ll go with kids, while giving the talented-but-erratic Francis and the soft-tossing prospect Gelnar a chance to make the staff.
Feb. 11, 1965: The San Francisco Giants sold second baseman Chuck Hiller to the New York Mets.
Hiller’s batting average has dropped a neat 100 points in two years, which isn’t the sort of thing one often sees. We’ve shopped him around and found no trade offers, so we’ll just take some cash from the Mets instead.
March, 1965: The Cincinnati Reds sold outfielder-first baseman Marty Keough to the Milwaukee Braves.
March, 1965: The St. Louis Cardinals sold outfielder Charlie James to the Houston Astros.
March, 1965: The St. Louis Cardinals sold outfielder Bob Burda to the San Francisco Giants.
Late-in-spring-training roster pruning. Our Giants will stash Burda in triple-A as Walt Bond injury insurance.
The 1965 season: Actual deals we will make
None. So there.
The 1965 season: Actual deals we will not make
May 4, 1965: The Cincinnati Reds traded pitcher Bill Henry to the San Francisco Giants for pitcher Jim Duffalo.
Our Reds never had Henry and our Giants no longer have Duffalo.
May 22, 1965: The San Francisco Giants traded shortstop Jose Pagan to the Pittsburgh Pirates for shortstop Dick Schofield.
We already sent Pagan to Pittsburgh and Schofield to San Francisco.
May 29, 1965: The San Francisco Giants traded pitcher Bob Hendley, catcher Ed Bailey, and outfielder Harvey Kuenn to the Chicago Cubs for outfielder Len Gabrielson and catcher Dick Bertell.
Our Giants don’t have any of those guys, and have no interest in Gabrielson or Bertell anyway.
July 19, 1965: The San Francisco Giants signed pitcher Warren Spahn as a free agent.
We love the wonderful Spahnie, even this superannuated version, but don’t have an opening on the staff.
The 1965 season: Deals we will invoke
June 15, 1965: The St. Louis Cardinals traded pitchers Ray Washburn and Mike Cuellar to the Houston Astros for pitchers Hal Woodeshick and Larry Yellen.
Actually on this date St. Louis traded pitcher Ron Taylor to Houston along with Cuellar in exchange for the standout reliever Woodeshick and so-so pitching prospect Chuck Taylor. Our Cardinals don’t have R. Taylor and do have C. Taylor, so we’ll rework the deal. Washburn has shown flashes, but hasn’t developed as we’d hoped, so we’ll take this opportunity to bolster the bullpen.
June 30, 1965: The Cincinnati Reds sold pitcher Bob Purkey to the Chicago Cubs.
Purkey this year is encountering the kind of struggle that doesn’t bode well for a 35-year-old. He’s been a splendid asset since we acquired him so long ago, but the time has come to cut him loose.
July 10, 1965: The San Francisco Giants sold pitcher Jack Sanford to the California Angels.
As it is for our Giants and the 36-year-old Sanford.
1965 season results
Giants
We’re installing Schofield as our primary shortstop, and having Rodgers compete with Hal Lanier for the second base job. And in the bullpen, we’ll have rookie Masanori Murakami replace the retired Billy Pierce—Murakami is the first Japanese-born player in the major leagues (the next won’t come along for another 30 years), and we didn’t plan for him to be here, but he’s just blown away everyone he’s faced.
But our biggest change is forced upon us by an injury. Orlando Cepeda underwent knee surgery over the winter, and arrives at spring training entirely unable to do anything more than limp to the plate to pinch hit. His absence from the lineup will provide an opportunity for the rookie Cardenal and sophomore Jesus Alou to compete for serious playing time in the outfield, and put extra pressure on Willie McCovey to bounce back from his dreadful 1964 performance.
1965 San Francisco Giants Won 99 Lost 63 Finished 1st
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B W. McCovey* 27 160 540 93 149 17 4 39 92 88 118 .276 .380 .539 .919 152
2B-SS H. Lanier 22 143 418 28 94 12 7 0 31 17 54 .225 .249 .287 .536 48
SS D. Schofield# 30 125 439 44 92 14 1 2 23 44 61 .210 .281 .260 .541 51
3B K. Boyer 34 144 535 66 137 17 2 12 55 58 71 .256 .324 .363 .687 90
RF-CF J. Cardenal 21 100 282 37 72 13 2 6 23 13 40 .255 .286 .379 .665 83
CF W. Mays 34 157 558 118 177 21 3 52 112 76 71 .317 .397 .645 1.042 184
LF-3B J. Hart 23 160 591 91 177 30 6 23 96 47 75 .299 .348 .487 .836 129
C T. Haller* 28 109 349 35 87 4 3 14 42 41 51 .249 .335 .398 .733 103
IF A. Rodgers 30 125 352 41 91 19 1 8 31 43 66 .259 .333 .386 .720 99
OF-1B W. Bond* 27 98 271 31 72 11 1 8 31 28 33 .266 .338 .402 .740 105
OF J. Alou 23 84 260 30 79 13 1 5 26 6 17 .304 .321 .419 .740 104
C J. Orsino 27 71 147 18 35 7 1 6 18 12 32 .238 .305 .422 .727 99
2B B. Schroder* 20 57 83 14 18 2 0 0 5 9 8 .217 .287 .241 .528 49
OF K. Henderson# 19 63 73 10 14 1 1 0 7 9 19 .192 .277 .233 .510 43
C T. Talton* 26 28 39 4 8 1 0 0 4 5 6 .205 .295 .231 .526 48
LF-1B O. Cepeda 27 33 34 1 6 1 0 1 5 3 9 .176 .225 .294 .519 43
Others 114 12 24 3 0 1 7 7 20 .211 .256 .263 .519 45
Pitchers 428 24 67 3 1 2 29 13 143 .156 .172 .181 .354 -2
Total 5513 697 1399 189 34 179 637 519 894 .254 .315 .398 .713 97
* Bats left
# Bats both
Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
J. Marichal 27 39 37 24 23 12 1 295 224 78 70 27 46 240 2.14 169
G. Perry 26 33 30 7 9 13 0 206 213 113 98 23 74 178 4.28 84
B. Bolin 26 33 29 4 11 7 0 182 167 65 64 24 62 148 3.16 114
D. LeMay* 26 29 18 4 9 6 0 139 135 65 57 12 41 55 3.69 98
F. Linzy 24 15 12 2 6 1 0 70 74 28 23 4 18 28 2.96 122
J. Sanford 36 17 14 0 4 3 0 68 65 33 31 7 19 33 4.10 88
B. Hands 25 13 10 2 5 3 0 65 69 34 26 4 24 44 3.60 100
D. Estelle* 23 16 10 1 2 3 0 56 57 36 28 5 31 35 4.50 80
S. Miller 37 67 0 0 14 6 20 119 92 27 26 5 29 104 1.97 184
B. O'Dell* 32 53 1 0 9 5 11 100 81 32 24 9 26 73 2.16 167
D. McMahon 35 52 0 0 3 2 7 81 79 36 30 8 31 57 3.33 108
M. Murakami* 21 45 1 0 4 1 4 74 57 31 31 9 22 85 3.77 96
Others 1 0 0 1 0 10 13 9 8 1 9 4 7.20 50
Total 163 44 99 63 43 1465 1326 587 516 138 432 1084 3.17 114
* Throws left
In St. Louis, Schofield had never been a good hitter, but he hadn’t been a bad one, slapping out a .260-ish batting average and drawing frequent walks. But he shows up in San Francisco and resolutely forgets how to hit. We spend all year waiting for him to snap out of it, to no avail. And Lanier doesn’t hit a lick, either.
Cardenal and Alou aren’t terrible, but Cepeda’s bat is definitely missed, even moreso because Boyer, at 34, finally begins to show his age. Fortunately, Jim Ray Hart proves he’s for real, McCovey does rebound, and Willie Mays—astonishingly, at the same age as Boyer—delivers a staggering season, a power-hitting clinic of historic proportion.
Our pitching isn’t quite the same patchwork quilt of sublime and ridiculous as our hitting, but it’s close. The starting staff behind ace Juan Marichal is shaky—the biggest issue being Ernie Broglio imploding due to elbow trouble—but the Dominican Dandy is tremendous, and so is our bullpen, headed up in scintillating fashion by the ageless Stu Miller.
And Pythagoras is kind to us, as we squeak in at four wins above projection. We need every inch of that extension in order to defeat the extremely tough competition.
Reds
The arrival of White at first base bumps Deron Johnson over to third, where he’ll compete with rookie Tony Perez. That bumps incumbent third baseman Tommy Harper to the outfield, where he’ll assume the platoon/utility role Flood had been filling.
The only other alteration is on the pitching staff, where we’re introducing an exceptionally hard-throwing rookie, Billy McCool, and last year’s rookie sensation reliever Sammy Ellis is promoted to the starting ranks.
1965 Cincinnati Reds Won 98 Lost 64 Finished 2nd
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B B. White* 31 142 472 80 139 23 3 21 75 55 69 .294 .367 .489 .856 133
2B P. Rose# 24 162 670 119 209 35 11 11 84 69 76 .312 .378 .446 .824 125
SS L. Cardenas 26 156 557 67 160 25 11 11 59 60 100 .287 .353 .431 .784 114
3B-1B D. Johnson 26 125 415 68 120 21 4 23 94 38 62 .289 .344 .525 .869 135
RF F. Robinson 29 156 582 111 172 33 5 33 116 70 100 .296 .386 .540 .925 151
CF V. Pinson* 26 159 669 99 204 34 10 22 97 43 81 .305 .349 .484 .833 126
LF T. Gonzalez* 28 108 370 62 112 19 1 15 49 29 52 .303 .356 .481 .837 127
C J. Edwards* 27 114 371 48 99 22 2 17 53 50 45 .267 .351 .474 .826 124
OF-3B T. Harper 24 80 257 52 68 10 1 8 30 32 48 .265 .343 .405 .748 104
3B T. Perez 23 99 253 38 65 13 4 11 45 19 60 .257 .310 .470 .781 111
C J. Azcue 25 71 175 14 41 4 0 2 18 11 29 .234 .283 .291 .574 58
UT C. Tovar 24 74 157 25 38 8 2 2 14 11 18 .242 .287 .357 .643 75
LF J. Lynch* 34 73 121 11 34 1 0 6 20 7 25 .281 .323 .438 .761 107
C E. Bailey* 34 45 80 8 18 3 0 2 13 16 16 .225 .347 .338 .684 89
IF T. Helms 24 21 42 4 16 2 2 0 6 3 7 .381 .435 .524 .959 162
IF C. Ruiz# 26 29 18 7 2 1 0 0 1 0 5 .111 .111 .167 .278 -25
Others 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 .000 .000 .000 .000 -100
Pitchers 449 29 62 7 3 1 19 26 168 .138 .173 .174 .347 -4
Total 5665 843 1559 261 59 185 793 539 963 .275 .338 .440 .778 112
* Bats left
# Bats both
Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
C. Osteen* 25 36 36 9 16 10 0 258 238 98 90 21 68 145 3.14 119
J. Maloney 25 33 33 14 20 9 0 255 189 78 72 13 110 244 2.54 148
S. Ellis 24 40 35 13 20 8 2 238 198 105 98 20 94 167 3.71 101
J. Jay 29 41 20 3 9 8 1 156 148 82 72 20 63 104 4.15 90
J. Pizarro* 28 18 18 2 7 2 0 97 105 51 45 10 33 65 4.18 90
J. O'Toole* 28 12 9 1 1 4 1 46 51 37 34 7 21 32 6.65 56
B. McCool* 20 53 2 0 9 9 20 90 78 43 41 8 40 105 4.10 91
J. Nuxhall* 36 47 2 0 6 3 10 99 92 36 35 10 21 81 3.18 118
J. Tsitouris 29 31 2 0 2 4 2 66 62 39 31 7 33 51 4.23 89
D. Zanni 33 28 1 0 1 2 1 52 41 17 13 5 24 35 2.25 167
H. Haddix* 39 24 0 0 3 1 1 34 33 25 15 5 21 21 3.97 94
B. Purkey 35 15 4 1 3 3 1 41 46 28 25 6 11 14 5.49 68
Others 0 0 1 1 0 26 21 7 6 2 10 19 2.08 181
Total 162 43 98 64 39 1458 1302 646 577 134 549 1083 3.56 105
* Throws left
Tremendous staff-wide pitching was the key to our pennants in 1963 and ’64. But this year we encounter some serious challenges on the mound. Purkey and Harvey Haddix both finally run out of gas, and Joey Jay isn’t sharp. Worst of all, our two top southpaws, Juan Pizarro and Jim O’Toole, both go down with arm trouble, with O’Toole especially ineffective.
Thus Jim Maloney, Claude Osteen, and Ellis emerge as a new top three, and though they’re excellent, they carry a heavy load. Overall our staff is good but not comparable to past versions.
But our hitting, as though responding to a distress signal, heroically rides to the rescue. Pete Rose ignites into stardom, heading a lineup that rolls out relentlessly ferocious thump, carpet-bombing opponents into submission. Our team OPS+ of 112 is the highest achieved by any team since the Boys of Summer were at their towering peak in 1953.
Alas, to the same four-game degree the Giants are helped by the Pythagorean whims, we’re hurt. Our resulting record of 98-64 noses out the Los Angeles Dodgers, but falls just short of the Giants.*
Cardinals
In our revamped lineup, Flood takes over in center field, moving Felipe Alou and his hopefully-healed knee over to right. Lee Thomas moves in from right field to first base.
Another outfielder, rifle-armed sophomore Mike Shannon, is converted to third base, where he’ll compete with fellow sophomore Phil Gagliano. And at shortstop we’re going with youngsters Jerry Buchek and Dal Maxvill.
1965 St. Louis Cardinals Won 85 Lost 76 Finished 5th
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B L. Thomas* 29 143 496 71 139 24 5 23 74 61 36 .280 .358 .488 .845 127
2B J. Javier 28 77 229 20 52 6 4 2 25 8 44 .227 .256 .314 .571 54
SS-2B J. Buchek 23 139 487 45 118 19 7 11 48 37 128 .242 .293 .378 .671 80
3B M. Shannon 25 124 383 40 90 23 4 6 43 39 72 .235 .305 .363 .668 80
RF F. Alou 30 143 555 88 172 30 2 24 78 32 64 .310 .348 .501 .849 127
CF C. Flood 27 150 577 84 179 28 3 10 68 48 47 .310 .365 .421 .786 113
LF L. Brock* 26 155 631 105 182 35 8 16 68 45 116 .288 .340 .445 .785 111
C T. McCarver* 23 113 409 48 113 17 2 11 48 31 26 .276 .327 .408 .735 98
3B-2B P. Gagliano 23 128 399 46 96 15 2 9 46 44 50 .241 .312 .356 .668 81
SS D. Maxvill 26 102 220 17 40 5 3 0 15 21 35 .182 .252 .232 .484 32
C-1B D. Pavletich 26 68 191 23 62 11 1 8 29 24 28 .325 .399 .518 .917 147
OF A. Shamsky* 23 79 178 20 46 7 4 5 19 20 42 .258 .335 .427 .762 105
OF M. Alou* 26 70 108 12 24 4 1 1 6 4 11 .222 .250 .306 .556 50
1B-OF J. Beauchamp 25 46 84 7 17 2 0 1 7 9 18 .202 .284 .262 .546 49
IF E. Chacon 28 36 63 9 15 2 0 1 5 9 8 .238 .324 .317 .642 75
OF T. Savage 28 30 63 7 10 3 0 1 4 6 9 .159 .232 .254 .486 32
C B. Uecker 30 27 58 7 12 3 0 1 4 9 12 .207 .324 .310 .634 73
C D. Ricketts# 29 11 15 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 .200 .188 .200 .388 5
Others 48 5 11 2 1 0 8 2 7 .229 .275 .313 .587 59
Pitchers 400 37 62 6 2 7 36 19 155 .155 .182 .233 .415 12
Total 5594 692 1443 242 49 137 631 468 910 .258 .314 .392 .706 90
* Bats left
# Bats both
Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
B. Gibson 29 38 36 20 20 12 1 299 243 110 102 34 103 270 3.07 126
L. Jackson 34 39 39 12 16 17 0 257 276 126 115 28 58 132 4.03 96
A. Jackson* 29 34 31 5 12 12 1 185 205 99 88 15 53 113 4.28 91
J. Gelnar 22 11 9 1 2 3 0 63 67 24 23 5 16 30 3.29 118
R. Washburn 27 11 8 1 4 6 0 57 55 27 24 7 12 30 3.79 102
N. Briles 21 15 6 0 2 3 1 55 58 25 24 4 15 31 3.93 99
G. Richardson* 26 13 7 0 1 3 0 54 57 28 26 6 19 38 4.33 90
D. Hughes 27 13 8 1 1 4 0 53 57 31 26 5 25 31 4.42 88
L. McDaniel 29 71 0 0 6 5 2 129 120 46 39 12 48 93 2.72 143
E. Fisher 28 56 13 1 12 8 12 144 126 55 51 13 34 77 3.19 122
H. Woodeshick* 32 41 0 0 3 1 13 48 37 11 9 1 22 31 1.69 230
B. Henry* 37 38 0 0 3 1 4 42 40 17 16 2 8 37 3.43 113
S. Carlton* 20 15 2 0 0 0 0 25 27 7 7 3 8 21 2.52 154
Others 3 3 3 1 2 51 43 16 15 3 15 26 2.65 147
Total 162 44 85 76 36 1462 1411 622 565 138 436 960 3.48 112
* Throws left
Second baseman Julian Javier, our only holdover regular infielder, breaks a finger and misses half the season, then struggles with the bat when he returns. This widens the window of opportunity for the younger infielders, but no one does much with the chance.
But by and large things go pretty well. Our bench gets a shot in the arm from Shamsky and (especially) Pavletich. With Lou Brock and Flood at the top of the order, and a rejuvenated Alou and Thomas in the middle, we don’t scare anybody but our offense is nudging toward league-average again.
Our pitching is a work in progress as well, as rookie right-handers Gelnar and Nelson Briles are introduced to the rotation in mid-season. But Bob Gibson is terrific, and the bullpen led by workhorses Lindy McDaniel and Eddie Fisher is outstanding.
At the end of the year, we’re still stuck in middle-of-the-pack traffic. However, our Pythag suggests we’re a little better than that, and so much of our key talent is still young that we think—perhaps we’re kidding ourselves?—we may at last be headed on the road toward contention.
Next time
We’ll enter the final three years of this long-range experiment. Can the Cardinals’ persistence be rewarded? Is anyone going to be able to break the San Francisco-Cincinnati stranglehold on first place?
Giants: Actual Reds: Actual Cardinals: Actual
Year W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA
1958 80 74 3 727 698 76 78 4 695 623 72 82 5T 619 704
1959 83 71 3 705 613 74 80 5T 764 738 71 83 7 641 725
1960 79 75 5 671 631 67 87 6 640 692 86 68 3 639 616
1961 85 69 3 773 655 93 61 1 710 653 80 74 5 703 668
1962 103 62 1 878 690 98 64 3 802 685 84 78 6 774 664
1963 88 74 3 725 641 86 76 5 648 594 93 69 2 747 628
1964 90 72 4 656 587 92 70 2T 660 566 93 69 1 715 652
1965 95 67 2 682 593 89 73 4 825 704 80 81 7 707 674
Giants: Virtual Reds: Virtual Cardinals: Virtual
Year W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA
1958 83 71 2T 747 692 73 81 5 683 637 77 77 4 640 677
1959 87 67 1T 737 615 87 67 1T 802 662 84 70 4 725 685
1960 93 61 1 709 561 76 78 6 705 666 86 68 4 661 632
1961 88 66 2 787 648 106 48 1 813 629 72 82 6 689 724
1962 103 59 1 800 632 101 61 2T 779 663 84 78 6 809 703
1963 97 65 3 726 578 100 62 1 704 540 80 82 6 664 668
1964 100 62 2 726 576 101 61 1 689 533 87 75 4 662 657
1965 99 63 1 697 587 98 64 2 843 646 85 76 5 692 622
References & Resources
* Bear in mind that in our scenario, the Dodgers don’t have Claude Osteen. Since they were unable to acquire Osteen in the 1964-65 offseason, we assume they didn’t trade the key talents they surrendered to the Washington Senators in the Osteen deal, namely outfielder Frank Howard and pitcher Pete Richert. We do assume the Dodgers would have made the rest of that elaborate transaction, and sent third baseman Ken McMullen, pitcher Phil Ortega, and first baseman Dick Nen to Washington in exchange for infielder John Kennedy and a large sum of cash.
The resulting 1965 Dodger team would have Howard taking the roster spot occupied for most of that season by Al Ferrara (because you really don’t need two slow, poor-fielding, right-handed-batting, power-hitting corner outfielders on your roster; given the cozy relationship between those franchises, Ferrara would almost certainly have been sold to the Senators). This would have Howard taking playing time away from first baseman Wes Parker and outfielder Lou Johnson, and thus cost the Dodgers defensively but meaningfully help them offensively.
The southpaw Richert would take Osteen’s spot. Richert was very good in 1965, about as effective per inning as Osteen, in fact, but Richert wasn’t nearly as durable. Thus the 90-plus innings pitched difference between Osteen and Richert would need to be covered by someone else, most likely fellow left-hander Nick Willhite, and that would hurt.
We estimate the bottom line impact to be a slight deficit. We certainly don’t see the modified ’65 Dodgers winning any more than the 97 games they actually did (without “spreadsheeting” it, we’ll go with an estimate of 94 wins), and thus in our scenario they finish third, though not far behind our Giants and Reds.
Pretty good lineup the Reds have.
Yeah, it’s kind of a frightening thing to behold, isn’t it? And what’s more, the virtual ‘65 Reds offense presented here is only a fraction better than the actual ‘65 Reds offense. It was one of the very most potent lineups ever convened.
It had arguably the greatest hitting infield ever, as noted here:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/best-and-worst-mlb-splits-1957-2006/
Steve, Jihn C.
By the parameters of the Pythagorean theorem, if your average game score is 3 – 2 over 162 games, you should win several more games than the 4 – 3 average score team…. Maybe this is the difference between the Dodgers and Giants? Perhaps that great pitching did help the Dodgers more than their mediocre hitting hurt them or their great pitching helped the Dodgers more than the Giants great hitting helped them? Or maybe I’m reaching here.
BTW, did see Deron Johnson hit the last of his 4 consecutive homers over two games (Veterans Stadium 1971?)
I kid about the 1960s Dodgers. They were an absolutely genuinely excellent team. Dodger Stadium was playing as an exceptionally strong pitchers’ park during those years, which distorted the stats so much that we tend to perceive their pitching as being better than it was (though it was still damn good), and their hitting as much more feeble than it was.
And, yes, if this exercise demonstrates nothing else, it demonstrates that both the Giants and the Reds possessed the capacity to be consistently better than those Dodgers, had they only not shot themselves in the foot by trading away too much of their bountiful young talent.
Interestingly, Harper doesn’t lead the league in runs scored (126)and Deron Johnson fails to top the NL in RBI (130)in your virtual scenario. But, somehow the Reds win the pennant. Works for me…how did the Dodgers ever win anyway?
“… how did the Dodgers ever win anyway?”
It’s going on 47 years and some of us still haven’t begun to figure out that fracking question. That the Dodgers were really good and deserved to win hasn’t yet emerged as a reasonable hypothesis.
The Dodgers won because:
1. The Giants and Reds kept making ill-advised trades that caused them to not be as good as they should have been (as clearly demonstrated by this series of articles); and
2. The Dodgers were a really good team. Not a very good hitting team, even given how bad of a hitter’s park Dodger Stadium was in those days, but their pitching and defense were exceptional.
Steve, this and your virtual 1966 Giants piece lead one to believe that teams producing a lot of talent almost lose their sense of value because it must have seemed to them like you should be able to produce a Leon Wagner or Felipe Alou, a second tier star player virtually at will. So, they casually trade them away. Now, if they always got value in return that would be one thing. Alas . .
The Red Sox of the late 60’s and early 70’s were another team that produced gobs of all star talent (Scott, Smith, Lyle, Fisk, Lynn, Rice, Evans, Oglivie, Cooper) and couldn’t figure out how to make the best team out of it.
James T,
Yes, I think you correctly perceive the mindset exhibited by both the Giants and Reds organizations in the 50s/60s. They had such an embarrassment of riches coming out of their farm systems that they kind of lost the appreciation of how valuable this talent was, and how it still mattered to get value for value in trades.
It’s worth noting that not every franchise enjoying a talent gusher from the farm system falls into this trap. George Weiss’s Yankees never did, nor did the Dodgers organization in the 1940s/50s under Rickey/Bavasi. But the Giants and Reds in this period did.
As for the early 70s Red Sox … funny you should mention them. I’m actually playing around with a scenario involving them. Will say no more.
Over at the Sons of Sam Horn I did a pale imitation of your Virtual 1966 Giants for the 1978 Red Sox and came up with a 109 win team. Some of the other posters had some shockingly bad win shares stats for the Red Sox losses in trades from around 1970 to 1978, IIRC, around 400+ win shares. Ouch.
Jack Hiatt was a character. When Masonuri Murakami(sp?) was a Giant, he was pitching when manager Herman Franks came out to the mound. Hiatt decided to teach “Mashi” some English. When Franks reached them, Murakani said, “Take a hike, Herman, you hairy prick!”
I’m presenting a paper on Murakami to the NINE conference in Arizona in March. May I include your anecdote?