The virtual 1962-69 Cincinnati Reds (Part 2)
Last time, we identified four transactions executed by the Cincinnati Reds between 1961 and 1965 that were questionable in concept, and would prove highly regrettable. So we cancelled them (as well as several subsequent deals whose cancellations would logically flow), and this time we’ll find out just how differently things would likely have gone for the Reds over the course of the decade.
1962
The initial trade we erased was the puzzling autumn 1961 pitcher swap of Claude Osteen for Dave Sisler. Keeping the 22-year-old Osteen in place of the 30-year-old Sisler would not only pay off handsomely for the Reds in the long run, but would yield dividends as soon as 1962.
Sisler was of modest use that year, contributing just 44 innings of so-so effectiveness in mop-up relief. The developing Osteen would be entirely capable of handling that and more. It isn’t realistic for us to imagine Osteen working his way into the Cincinnati starting rotation as he did with the cellar-dwelling 1962 Washington Senators, but it’s quite plausible to picture him taking innings away from three pitchers—Johnny Klippstein, Moe Drabowsky and Ted Wills—who struggled to one degree or another in long relief/spot starting work for the ’62 Reds.
The net effect would be an improvement in the staff, not to a dramatic extent, but not insignificant. Whether the improvement would be enough to nudge the Reds ahead of the Giants and Dodgers, who finished the regular season tied for first, just three games ahead of the late-charging third-place Reds, is a good question. We’ll err on the side of conservatism and say no, but at any rate, with Osteen in Cincinnati, the 1962 National League pennant race—well-remembered as an all-time classic summer-long duel between the California arch-rivals—would become an even more intense three-way extravaganza.
1963
For this season, we have a second non-transaction to contend with, as we have the Reds deciding against dumping minor league left-hander Mike Cuellar that spring. But Cuellar spent that year still toiling in the minors, with moderate effectiveness but not enough for us to see him as making the Cincinnati major league staff. So that deal has no impact yet.
But Osteen is back again, and 1963 was another season of substantial progress for him, exceeding 200 innings for the first time in the majors and emerging as one of the better young starters in the American League. In Cincinnati he wouldn’t grab such a prominent role, but he’d strongly compete for starting assignments, and contribute nicely out of the bullpen as well. He would meaningfully improve the Reds’ staff.
Alas, the ’63 Reds encountered various slumps and injuries, and dropped to fifth, 13 games behind the pennant-winning Dodgers. Our version would be stronger, but certainly not enough to make up all that.
1964
There are no additional cancelled trades to consider for this season. However, the Reds in 1964 promoted two players from their farm system and deployed them in utility roles: infielder Bobby Klaus and outfielder Mel Queen. One of the fellows we talked about last time, Cesar Tovar, wasn’t promoted to the majors in ’64 despite the fact that he was clearly ready, and clearly a better prospect than either Klaus or Queen. With Tovar’s remarkable defensive versatility he might have handled either or both of the duties given to Klaus and Queen by Cincinnati that year, and made a more useful contribution.
Claude Osteen stepped forward as a full-fledged ace for the Senators in 1964. With the Reds—who presented a remarkably deep and strong pitching staff that year—he wouldn’t be the front man, but Osteen would settle in splendidly as the third regular starter behind Jim Maloney and Jim O’Toole. Osteen’s presence would eject the 35-year-old, close-to-the-end-of-the-line Ryne Duren from the back end of the Cincinnati bullpen, and allow the team to rely less heavily upon the swingman quartet of Bob Purkey, Joey Jay, John Tsitouris and Joe Nuxhall in starting assignments. The Reds’ pitching was excellent in 1964, and with Osteen on board it would be even better, definitely the best top-to-bottom staff in the league.
Nineteen sixty-four was the season in which Mike Cuellar dominated Triple-A over the first couple of months, and was then finally given a genuine opportunity in the majors, by the Cardinals. Used as a long reliever and spot starter over the balance of the year, Cuellar didn’t set the world on fire for St. Louis, but he held his own. However, there simply would be no room for Cuellar on this Cincinnati staff; he would spend the full season lighting up Triple-A, appearing with the Reds only as a September call-up.
The actual Reds missed the National League pennant by the margin of just a single game behind those Cardinals. Take Cuellar’s moderate contribution away from St. Louis, add Tovar’s moderate contribution and Osteen’s significant contribution to Cincinnati, and it seems pretty clear that our Reds would have been the team squaring off against the Yankees in October 1964.
1965
We don’t trade Tovar for Gerry Arrigo, and anyway Arrigo would be entirely superfluous to this pitching staff. We allow Tovar to provide his multi-faceted help off the Reds’ bench, and we allow Osteen and Cuellar to assume the two pitching roster spots variously juggled between Arrigo, Ted Davidson, Bill Henry, Jim Duffalo and Bobby Locke, and the team is meaningfully improved.
The particular improvement would be on the pitching side, of course. That would be where it was particularly needed: the ’65 Reds, as mentioned last time, were an offensive juggernaut, but failed to closely contend due to pitching issues, most crucially the complete collapse of erstwhile star Jim O’Toole. The presence of Osteen and Cuellar would greatly mitigate the run prevention problems.
The key question is whether our version would be improved enough to make up the eight-game deficit by which the actual Reds trailed the champion Dodgers, or for that matter the six games they finished behind the second-place Giants.
Bear in mind that Los Angeles would be without the services of Osteen, but on the other hand the Dodgers would instead have at hand the significant talents of the key trio they traded to acquire Osteen in the 1964-65 off-season: outfielder Frank Howard, third baseman Ken McMullen and pitcher Pete Richert. Whether the Dodgers kept those players for 1965 or cashed in one or more in the trade market, it’s difficult to say how more or less competitive they would be in ’65.
Altogether it’s too close to call just how the 1965 National League pennant race would wind up. All we can say with confidence is that it would have been, as in 1962, another ferocious contest between the Dodgers, Giants and Reds.
And this brings us to the latter years of the decade, and a Cincinnati team that retains the services of that Frank Robinson guy.
1966
Not everything would go well for the Reds in 1966. Catcher Johnny Edwards suddenly and inexplicably suffered a disastrous year with the bat. Pitcher Sammy Ellis, a rising star in 1964-65, encountered a serious reversal. First base platoon partners Gordy Coleman and Tony Perez were both ineffectual. Power hitter Deron Johnson, fourth in the NL MVP voting in 1965 as he led the majors in RBIs, tailed off.
But most things would go very well:
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B G. Coleman* 31 91 227 20 57 7 0 5 36 16 45 .251 .299 .348 .647 73
2B P. Rose# 25 156 654 106 205 38 5 16 65 37 61 .313 .351 .460 .811 115
SS L. Cardenas 27 160 568 59 145 25 4 20 81 45 87 .255 .309 .419 .728 93
3B-1B D. Johnson 27 142 505 72 130 25 3 24 86 39 87 .257 .309 .461 .771 103
RF F. Robinson 30 155 576 108 185 35 2 44 112 75 92 .321 .404 .618 1.02 179
CF V. Pinson* 27 156 618 89 178 35 6 16 76 33 83 .288 .326 .442 .768 103
LF T. Harper 25 122 442 72 121 18 4 4 25 46 68 .274 .337 .360 .697 96
C J. Edwards* 28 98 282 24 54 8 0 6 38 31 42 .191 .269 .284 .553 48
LF-RF A. Shamsky* 24 96 234 41 54 5 0 21 47 32 45 .231 .321 .521 .842 121
C D. Pavletich 27 83 235 29 69 13 2 12 38 18 37 .294 .344 .519 .863 127
1B-3B T. Perez 24 82 206 20 54 8 3 3 30 11 35 .262 .294 .374 .668 85
3B-2B T. Helms 25 83 181 24 49 7 0 3 14 7 11 .271 .297 .359 .656 82
UT C. Tovar 25 75 141 20 36 5 2 1 10 11 16 .255 .306 .340 .646 81
C J. Coker 30 50 111 9 28 3 0 4 14 8 5 .252 .300 .387 .687 83
INF C. Ruiz# 27 61 73 9 18 1 1 0 3 3 9 .247 .276 .288 .564 59
Others 31 5 9 2 0 1 4 1 6 .290 .313 .452 .764 110
Pitchers 414 32 67 10 2 2 16 18 142 .162 .188 .210 .399 12
Total 160 5498 739 1459 245 34 182 695 431 871 .265 .316 .422 .738 104
* Bats left
# Bats both
Pitcher Age G GS CG IP W L SV H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
C. Osteen* 26 39 38 8 240 20 11 0 244 95 88 10 67 135 3.30 120
M. Cuellar* 29 38 28 11 227 16 6 2 198 69 64 17 55 172 2.54 156
J. Maloney 26 32 32 10 225 17 7 0 174 75 70 18 90 216 2.80 140
S. Ellis 25 41 18 4 148 9 12 2 146 87 82 21 49 107 4.99 79
J. O'Toole* 29 25 19 2 122 5 5 0 117 51 47 13 41 84 3.47 114
J. Nuxhall* 37 28 11 1 84 4 5 1 84 42 39 8 26 47 4.18 95
J. Jay 30 12 10 1 62 6 1 0 63 27 26 7 19 37 3.77 105
D. Nottebart 30 59 1 0 111 6 3 12 97 41 38 11 43 69 3.07 128
B. McCool* 21 57 0 0 105 9 7 21 76 32 29 5 41 104 2.48 159
T. Davidson* 26 43 0 0 57 4 2 3 54 27 24 7 15 37 3.79 104
H. Fischer 26 11 3 0 23 1 3 0 32 19 17 2 9 14 6.65 59
Others 0 0 32 0 1 2 44 29 27 5 18 27 7.59 52
Total 160 37 1436 97 63 43 1329 594 551 124 473 1049 3.45 114
* Throws left
Robinson, in his 11th season in Cincinnati, would mount his best performance since 1962, and almost certainly capture his second MVP award. He would be the centerpiece of a robust offense, featuring Pete Rose and Vada Pinson, and with Don Pavletich and Art Shamsky delivering superb contributions in supporting roles.
Osteen, Cuella, and Maloney would comprise a first-rate starting front. With Billy McCool and Don Nottebart anchoring the bullpen, the pitching staff would be among the better in the league. All in all it would be a terrific team, clearly winning the National League pennant.
1967
This season would bring a host of challenges to the Reds’ run production. Edwards’ bat remained fully inert. Shamsky’s hitting was as bad in 1967 as it had been outstanding in ’66. Injuries would knock Robinson and shortstop Leo Cardenas out of the lineup for significant periods, while injuries as well as slumps would bedevil Deron Johnson and left fielder Tommy Harper.
But on the pitching side, things could hardly have gone better. An already strong staff would be bolstered by three key new arrivals: sensational rookie Gary Nolan, outfielder-turned-pitcher Mel Queen and veteran submarine reliever Ted Abernathy (like Nottebart a year earlier, a shrewd Rule 5 pickup).
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B-3B D. Johnson 28 108 361 40 81 18 1 13 54 22 104 .224 .270 .388 .658 78
2B-SS T. Helms 26 123 373 30 102 20 3 2 26 18 31 .273 .302 .359 .661 80
SS L. Cardenas 28 108 379 32 97 14 3 2 21 34 77 .256 .320 .325 .644 77
3B-1B T. Perez 25 152 570 79 166 27 7 25 99 31 97 .291 .328 .495 .823 122
RF F. Robinson 31 129 479 87 155 25 8 28 96 64 82 .324 .406 .585 .991 168
CF V. Pinson* 28 158 650 90 187 28 13 18 76 26 86 .288 .318 .454 .771 109
LF-2B P. Rose# 26 148 585 96 176 32 8 12 66 56 66 .301 .364 .444 .808 120
C D. Pavletich 28 81 254 29 61 15 3 7 38 23 42 .240 .311 .406 .716 95
UT C. Tovar 26 109 325 52 88 17 4 2 24 20 25 .271 .318 .366 .684 87
LF-RF T. Harper 26 69 243 39 54 11 2 5 15 29 34 .222 .301 .346 .646 77
C J. Edwards* 29 80 209 11 43 6 0 2 20 16 28 .206 .261 .263 .524 44
1B-LF L. May 24 64 175 18 45 11 1 5 24 7 37 .257 .296 .417 .713 93
LF-RF A. Shamsky* 25 76 147 7 29 3 1 3 13 15 34 .197 .274 .293 .567 55
INF C. Ruiz# 28 70 125 17 27 6 2 0 7 6 18 .216 .252 .296 .548 50
C J. Coker 31 54 116 10 22 3 1 2 5 5 24 .190 .223 .284 .508 38
Others 70 6 11 2 1 1 5 5 14 .157 .208 .257 .465 27
Pitchers 416 20 60 12 4 2 26 18 151 .144 .167 .207 .374 2
Total 5477 663 1404 250 62 129 615 395 950 .256 .306 .395 .701 91
* Bats left
# Bats both
Pitcher Age G GS CG IP W L SV H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
C. Osteen* 27 35 35 11 246 18 13 0 262 110 99 20 51 128 3.62 105
M. Cuellar* 30 36 32 13 234 17 10 1 234 102 92 18 66 193 3.54 108
G. Nolan 19 33 32 8 227 15 7 0 193 73 65 18 62 206 2.58 148
J. Maloney 27 30 29 6 196 16 10 0 181 76 71 8 72 153 3.25 116
M. Queen 25 36 12 3 125 9 5 0 94 41 36 9 37 102 2.59 147
S. Ellis 26 32 16 3 111 5 7 0 120 51 45 10 43 52 3.65 104
T. Abernathy 34 70 0 0 106 6 3 28 63 19 15 1 41 88 1.27 299
D. Nottebart 31 47 0 0 79 0 3 4 75 25 17 4 19 48 1.93 197
B. McCool* 22 31 3 0 65 2 4 2 56 28 23 4 37 58 3.18 120
G. Arrigo* 26 29 2 0 56 5 4 1 47 23 19 5 27 45 3.05 125
Others 1 0 22 2 1 1 16 11 11 2 15 15 4.50 85
Total 162 44 1468 95 67 37 1341 559 493 99 470 1088 3.02 126
* Throws left
One major advancement on the hitting side was the breakthrough by Tony Perez, who grabbed the starting third base job with a hot start and never let it go. The presence of Tovar and the slick-fielding Tommy Helms to handle second base would allow the Reds to shift Pete Rose to left field in place of the struggling Harper.
The pitching would be excellent from top to bottom. Even the very last man in the bullpen was effective: our old friend Gerry Arrigo, whom we’ve allowed the Reds to acquire (as they did) in a waiver deal late in the 1966 season.
The superb run prevention capability of this ball club would counter its so-so offense, and render these Reds a strong contender. But their 95 wins wouldn’t be sufficient to catch the runaway ’67 Cardinals, and this Cincinnati team would have to settle for second place.
1968
Robinson would endure an injury-nagged season with production below his standard. But below Robinson’s standard left plenty of room, and he was still a very fine hitter. And otherwise the lineup received two boosts that plugged the holes of 1967: First baseman Lee May enjoyed a breakout season similar to that of Perez the year before, and Rookie of the Year Johnny Bench suddenly emerged as one of the best-hitting catchers in baseball (along with his stunning defensive prowess) at the tender age of 20.
Thus the Reds’ offense more than bounced back from its ’67 doldrums, and performed as clearly the best in the league in this ultra-low-scoring “Year of the Pitcher.”
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B-LF L. May 25 146 503 71 146 29 1 20 78 31 90 .290 .336 .471 .807 135
2B-SS T. Helms 27 114 406 28 115 22 2 2 39 9 22 .283 .299 .362 .661 93
SS L. Cardenas 29 137 452 46 106 13 2 7 42 36 83 .235 .292 .319 .611 79
3B T. Perez 26 160 625 94 176 25 7 18 97 51 92 .282 .338 .430 .769 125
RF F. Robinson 32 130 421 74 117 29 1 12 62 61 83 .278 .383 .437 .820 140
CF V. Pinson* 29 130 499 64 135 29 6 5 49 32 59 .271 .311 .383 .694 103
LF-CF P. Rose# 27 149 626 97 210 42 6 10 50 56 76 .335 .391 .470 .861 152
C J. Bench 20 154 564 68 155 40 2 15 85 31 96 .275 .311 .433 .743 117
2B-CF C. Tovar 27 105 307 47 85 16 3 2 23 13 21 .277 .320 .368 .688 102
OF M. Jones* 29 103 234 42 59 9 1 10 34 28 46 .252 .341 .427 .768 124
RF-LF A. Shamsky* 26 77 173 17 41 8 2 6 28 9 30 .237 .284 .410 .695 102
1B F. Whitfield* 30 87 171 15 44 8 0 6 32 9 29 .257 .302 .409 .712 107
INF C. Ruiz# 29 85 139 15 36 2 1 0 9 12 18 .259 .316 .288 .604 78
1B-C D. Pavletich 29 46 98 11 28 3 1 2 11 8 23 .286 .352 .398 .750 120
C P. Corrales 27 20 56 3 15 4 0 0 6 6 16 .268 .349 .339 .688 103
Others 29 1 6 0 0 0 3 1 10 .207 .226 .207 .433 28
Pitchers 397 25 61 11 1 4 16 20 149 .154 .181 .217 .398 16
Total 5700 718 1535 290 36 119 664 413 943 .269 .319 .395 .715 109
* Bats left
# Bats both
Pitcher Age G GS CG IP W L SV H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
C. Osteen* 28 39 36 5 254 16 13 0 272 114 97 16 56 121 3.44 92
J. Maloney 28 33 32 8 207 16 9 0 183 96 83 17 80 181 3.61 88
G. Culver 24 42 28 4 203 10 13 4 203 82 71 7 76 104 3.15 100
M. Cuellar* 31 28 24 11 171 12 7 1 152 62 54 10 48 135 2.84 111
G. Nolan 20 23 22 4 150 9 4 0 105 47 40 10 49 111 2.40 132
G. Arrigo* 27 36 16 3 137 8 6 2 116 53 48 8 51 96 3.15 100
T. Abernathy 35 78 0 0 135 10 7 26 111 42 37 9 55 64 2.46 129
J. Ritchie 31 38 2 0 74 2 3 1 80 41 38 9 17 42 4.62 68
B. Kelso 28 35 0 0 54 4 1 1 56 26 24 6 15 39 3.98 80
B. McCool* 23 34 1 0 51 3 3 4 56 31 26 4 40 32 4.59 69
Others 2 0 54 1 5 0 68 39 37 16 29 46 6.17 51
Total 163 35 1490 91 71 39 1402 633 555 112 516 971 3.35 94
* Throws left
But this time it was the pitching staff’s turn to encounter some difficulties. Osteen, Maloney and Cuellar weren’t bad, but none was at his best. Nolan, in his sophomore year, was still terrific but missed quite a bit of time with a tender arm, while Queen flamed out completely with a bad arm. And the bullpen behind Abernathy was weak.
Thus the balance of strengths and weaknesses was different than that of 1967, but the result would be the same: a strong second-place ball club, but not enough to overtake the high-flying Cardinals.
1969
And then the stars would come into alignment.
Stars including Robinson, back in healthy form, and Rose, who was never better. And including Perez, May and Bench all maturing into peak performance.
And new-arrival center fielder Bobby Tolan, acquired from St. Louis as part of the Vada Pinson trade, blossomed into stardom himself. Meanwhile Leo Cardenas would be at the top of his game, and Tovar’s superior offensive tools would finally allow him to beat out Tommy Helms for the regular second base job.
Not to be outdone, both Osteen and Cuellar would deliver career-best seasons, giving Cincinnati a pair of aces at the top of the rotation. And the bullpen would be solidified by the addition of Wayne Granger, the other piece of the clever Pinson deal.
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B L. May 26 140 481 76 135 26 3 31 90 37 111 .281 .335 .541 .875 137
2B-CF C. Tovar 28 127 428 57 123 19 4 7 52 28 30 .287 .337 .400 .736 102
SS L. Cardenas 30 160 578 65 160 24 4 8 67 59 101 .277 .339 .374 .713 96
3B T. Perez 27 160 629 104 185 31 2 37 125 63 131 .294 .357 .526 .883 140
RF F. Robinson 33 148 539 114 168 20 6 29 101 80 66 .312 .411 .532 .943 158
CF B. Tolan* 23 152 637 113 194 25 10 21 93 27 92 .305 .347 .474 .821 124
LF P. Rose# 28 156 627 129 218 33 11 16 82 88 65 .348 .428 .512 .940 158
C J. Bench 21 148 532 84 156 23 1 26 92 49 86 .293 .353 .487 .840 129
2B-SS T. Helms 28 84 215 21 56 8 1 0 15 8 16 .260 .282 .307 .589 62
1B-RF A. Shamsky* 27 75 152 23 46 5 2 6 29 18 17 .303 .375 .480 .855 134
OF T. Savage 32 61 73 13 16 4 0 1 6 12 19 .219 .322 .315 .637 76
UT J. Stewart# 30 60 74 9 17 1 1 1 6 6 12 .230 .280 .311 .591 63
C P. Corrales 28 29 72 10 19 5 0 1 5 8 17 .264 .346 .375 .721 98
INF C. Ruiz# 30 59 65 9 14 1 0 0 3 4 10 .215 .250 .231 .481 33
1B F. Whitfield* 31 49 49 1 7 0 0 1 5 12 18 .143 .311 .204 .516 45
Others 23 2 3 0 0 0 2 1 10 .130 .148 .130 .279 -23
Pitchers 423 28 72 8 5 4 32 19 148 .170 .187 .241 .447 17
Total 5597 858 1589 233 50 189 805 519 949 .284 .343 .445 .788 115
* Bats left
# Bats both
Pitcher Age G GS CG IP W L SV H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
C. Osteen* 29 41 41 16 321 24 12 0 303 114 106 20 74 180 2.97 128
M. Cuellar* 32 39 39 18 291 24 11 0 233 103 89 18 71 180 2.75 138
J. Maloney 29 30 27 6 179 14 5 0 135 64 55 11 86 102 2.77 137
J. Fisher 30 31 15 0 102 5 4 1 121 68 61 13 27 50 5.38 71
G. Nolan 21 16 15 2 98 8 6 0 91 40 38 10 36 76 3.49 109
G. Culver 25 30 13 0 91 6 5 4 104 48 42 7 47 53 4.15 91
G. Arrigo* 28 26 10 1 82 5 5 0 80 44 38 8 55 32 4.17 91
W. Granger 25 82 0 0 136 10 5 30 133 57 41 10 37 63 2.71 140
T. Abernathy 36 56 0 0 85 5 3 6 73 35 28 8 43 54 2.96 128
A. Jackson* 33 33 0 0 27 1 0 3 27 17 16 5 17 16 5.27 73
Others 3 0 55 3 1 0 68 43 38 8 24 32 6.28 61
Total 163 43 1467 105 57 44 1368 633 552 118 517 838 3.39 112
* Throws left
The result would be an immensely efficient, well, Big Red Machine. This wouldn’t be a perfect ball club, as there is a weakness here in pitching depth. But it would be about as close to perfect as ball clubs realistically get, prominently among the greatest teams of the 1960s/70s era, cruising with ease to the first-ever National League West Division flag.
Something fun to ponder is how this team would have matched up against the Miracle Mets in the NLCS; bear in mind that the Mets would be without Shamsky, who went 7-for-13 in that series. Moreover, whoever won, who would they play in the World Series, bearing in mind that the American League pennant-winning Baltimore Orioles would be without Robinson and Cuellar, while the AL West Champion Minnesota Twins would be without Cardenas and Tovar?
Into the 1970s
As we discussed last time, it was the 1970 season in which the actual Big Red Machine rolled onto the scene, flattening opponents on the way to a 102-victory runaway division title, and a three-game NLCS sweep into the World Series. Our version would present nearly all of that team’s many weapons and much more; indeed our version would be faced with a delightfully perplexing issue of how to squeeze rookie outfielder Bernie Carbo and his 164 OPS+ into the lineup. Certainly, these virtual Reds would be poised for a tremendous 1970s run.
And unlike the actual Reds, these virtual counterparts would be executing their 1970s domination after already having been dominant through the 1960s: four certain flags (’61, ’64, ’66 and ’69), plus two possible ones (’62 and ’65), unquestionably the best team in the National League over the decade.
how could you add tolan no trades remember
No, the rules of the game are that we can’t invent any trades that didn’t happen, but we can cancel some trades that did happen. We aren’t obligated to cancel all trades that did happen.
I’d like to see an analysis of the 1980s New York Yankees, who kept missing the AL East title by a few games year after year, if they hadn’t made the awful trades they made. Would the Yankees have gotten over the top if they had held onto McGee, McGriff and Buhner, not to mention some other useful players like Doug Drabek, Bob Tewksbury and Al Leiter? (I think I’m missing a few, even at that.) It seems like to me that if they had just not made these deals, they could have won about a half-dozen divisional titles, and avoided the early ‘90s collapse. Don Mattingly would probably already be in the Hall of Fame.
Excellent suggestion! I’ll put it on the list.
I’d be curious about the Cardinals for roughly the period 1971-81, if the following five transactions could be undone:
1. 4/15/71 — returned Rule V draft pick Cecil Cooper to the Red Sox.
2. 6/15/71 — traded Mike Torrez to Montreal for Bob Reynolds.
3. 2/25/72 — traded Steve Carlton to Philadelphia for Rick Wise.
4. 4/15/72 — traded Jerry Reuss to Houston for Lance Clemons and Scipio Spinks.
5. 10/24/74 — sold José Cruz to Houston.
Torrez, Carlton and Reuss were all still putting up ERA+s of 100 or better into the early ‘80s, and Cruz and Cooper had OPS+s of 100 or better into the mid-‘80s. Adding Carlton to the Cardinals while subtracting him from the Phillies would put the Cards in contention for a division title in several of the seasons during this period.
I’ll leave it to you to figure out how to get Cooper and Keith Hernandez into the lineup at the same time. (-;þ
If the Reds don’t trade Tovar for Arrigo, why is Arrigo still listed on the pitching staff in 1967-69?
Great suggestion about the Cardinals as well … it’ll be a test of “out of the box thinking” to figure out how to make use of Cooper and Hernandez simultaneously …
Arrigo is on the team because even though we didn’t do the Tovar-for-Arrigo trade, in early 1966 the Reds sold Arrigo to the Mets, and then purchased him back later that year. We’ve allowed the second Arrigo acquisition to go through.
So how does he get to the Mets
?
“So how does he get to the Mets ?”
Well, we’re getting into second-order effects now, aren’t we …
The assumption I make, which can certainly be challenged, but I think it’s reasonable, is this: we don’t know what the Twins would have done with Arrigo had the Reds not accepted their Arrigo-for-Tovar offer. But we do know that by May of 1966, Arrigo’s fortunes had deteriorated such that the Reds gave up on him, and we also know that by August of that year, the Mets gave up on him too.
Essentially as of late 1966 Arrigo had become waiver-wire fodder, so it’s fair to assume that whatever team had him would be adverse to letting the Reds grab him on waivers, as they actually did in August of ‘66.
Oops, make that “wouldn’t be adverse”.
great report as a red fan thankyou
Well, if Arrigo stays in Minnesota, perhaps he doesn’t crash and burn in ‘65 (he was only 24 at the time, after all) and doesn’t become waiver wire fodder. Remember, Johnny Sain was their pitching coach at the time, not exactly a slouch in that department.
This kind of speculation is addictive! 😀
Re Yankees 80’s idea, don’t forget Jim Deshaies, who had some decent years with the Astros after being traded for Joe Niekro.
Good point about DeShaies! I’ve actually been noodling around a little bit this afternoon regarding those ‘80s/‘90s Yankees, and I think there’s definitely something there. And I’d overlooked DeShaies.
You’re right, he was a good pitcher. But still, I can’t help but recall a line offered by one of my Fantasy Baseball compatriots some time in the late ‘80s, when we were undertaking our draft:
“Jim DeShaies!”
“What is that, French for ‘Jim da shits’?”
This stuff is simply great. thanks
you know the Reds were very good,Bristol was a little bit thin skinned and a poor judge of proper batting orders.
The Yankees in the 80s would be a very good subject. George wanted to win and win now so they kept shipping out good young players for proven veterans. If we were lucky, said veterans gave a couple of good years before getting old. Some imploded immediately. Some of those trades are hard to explain even then.
Players of interest include Willie McGee (basically given away), Bill Caudill, Gene Nelson (both for Shane Rawley), Greg Gagne (Roy Smalley), Fred McGriff (Dale Murray!), Mike Morgan (also Dale), Tim Burke (given away), Jay Howell, Jose Rijo, Eric Plunk (all for Ricky Henderson, so that was probably fair), Jim DeShaies (Joe Niekro, though Yankee announcers used to insist that they had a choice of Joe or Nolan Ryan and picked Joe), Ron Hassey (first Britt Burns, then Ron Kittle), Doug Drabek (though they got him when they traded Smalley), Bob Tewksbury (Steve bleepin’ Trout), Jay Buhner (Ken Phelps), Jack Clark (for basically nothing), Al Leiter (Jesse Barfield), and probably a handful more that I am missing, along with some terrible free agent signings. They also managed to lose Tim Belcher to the ridiculous free agent rules of the time. This could get complicated. Some of these trades interconnect, reversing some trades eliminate the need for some free agents, and the Yankees had the bad habit of trading guys and then getting them back in another trade or through free agency. It would take some effort to figure out which configuration you want to use.
If you want to go back a bit further the 1976 trade that sent the Orioles Scott McGregor, Rick Dempsey, Tippy Martinez, and Rudy May was not exactly a shining moment either. Doyle Alexander and Grant Jackson were useful for the rest of 1976 so maybe that does not apply.
Yeah, I’ve already started working on the 1980s Yankees. They did make a whole lot of more-or-less giveaway trades in the ‘80s.
There is a perfect subject about anything the Yankees———the evil empire buyers of competing as a need to make up for lack of ability to draft and educate.
Also, please do one for the mid-to-late 90’s Expos. Remember after 1994 when the owners canceled the seaon, ‘Dumb” Claude “without a Clue” Brochu and Jim “Brain Dead” Beattie let Larry Walker go to Colorado without any compensation and traded Ken Hill to the Cardinals for Bryan Eversgerd, John Wetteland to the Yankees for Fernando Seguignol, and Marquis Grissom to Atlanta for Roberto Kelly and Tony Tarasco. After 1997, the Expos traded Pedro Martinez to the Red Sox for Tony Armas, Jr. and Carl Pavano.
As an Expos fan, I’m still torqued off.
I agree the Expos had some great talent and were ahead in the east at the time of the strike—MONTREAL WAS CHEATED OUT OF A FRANCHISE BY GREED AND POLITICS.