The virtual 1968-76 Braves, Astros, and Reds (Part 5: 1971-72)
We’ve covered four complete seasons of our trio of National League West contestants in the alternate-universe late ’60s/early ’70s:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-virtual-1968-76-braves-astros-and-reds-part-1-1967-68/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-virtual-1968-76-braves-astros-and-reds-part-2-1968-69/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-virtual-1968-76-braves-astros-and-reds-part-3-1969-70/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-virtual-1968-76-braves-astros-and-reds-part-4-1970-71/
Braves: Actual Astros: Actual Reds: Actual
Year W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA
1968 81 81 5 514 549 72 90 10 510 588 83 79 4 690 673
1969 93 69 1 691 631 81 81 5 676 668 89 73 3 798 768
1970 76 86 5 736 772 79 83 4 744 763 102 60 1 775 681
1971 82 80 3 643 699 79 83 4T 585 567 79 83 4T 586 581
Braves: Virtual Astros: Virtual Reds: Virtual
Year W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA
1968 86 76 3 538 535 68 94 10 516 634 81 81 5 671 669
1969 105 57 1 762 597 94 68 2 726 611 90 72 3 794 752
1970 89 73 2 817 725 85 77 4T 726 692 104 58 1 779 675
1971 91 71 2 713 684 92 70 1 629 520 82 80 5 605 576
Our Braves ran away with it in ’69, and our Reds matched that feat in 1970. In ’71, our Astros surprised with a sneak-attack championship in a squeaky-close race.
In real life, the 1971-72 offseason featured perhaps the most active trading market in major league history. Will our ball clubs indulge in the frantic wheeling and dealing?
The 1971-72 offseason: Actual deals we will make
Dec. 2, 1971: The Atlanta Braves traded catcher Hal King to the Texas Rangers for catcher Paul Casanova.
Like the real-life Braves, we’ll decide that optimizing defense over offense is appropriate for catchers backing up Earl Williams.
Dec. 3, 1971: The Cincinnati Reds traded pitcher Wayne Granger to the Minnesota Twins for pitcher Tom Hall.
We really don’t understand what the Twins are thinking. As effective as Granger has been, Hall has been even better for the past two years, and besides he’s four years younger than Granger. Hall’s strikeout rates are off-the-chart tremendous; he’s a very special young pitcher.
The 1971-72 offseason: Actual deals we will not make
Oct. 14, 1971: The Houston Astros sold pitcher Denny Lemaster to the Montreal Expos.
Our Astros don’t have Lemaster. Our Braves do, and we aren’t ready to dump him.
Nov. 29, 1971: The Cincinnati Reds traded first baseman Lee May, second baseman Tommy Helms, and infielder-outfielder Jim Stewart to the Houston Astros for second baseman Joe Morgan, pitcher Jack Billingham, infielder Denis Menke, and outfielders Cesar Geronimo and Ed Armbrister.
… one of the most impactful transactions in the history of the sport. Cincinnati GM Bob Howsam executed a masterpiece in two separate ways.
Conceptually, Howsam’s brilliance was in seizing the opportunity to address, in one bold stroke, two of his high-profile ball club’s structural flaws. The Big Red Machine had suffered an off-year in 1971, but had been the NL’s pennant winner in 1970, and in both seasons their key strength was the tremendous power-hitting core of Tony Perez, Johnny Bench and Lee May. However, within that very core nestled two problems: All three big sluggers were right-handed batters, and two of the three were natural first basemen.
Right-handed, slow-footed big swingers back-to-back-to-back at the heart of the Reds’ lineup rendered them vulnerable to right-handed pitching, as well as prone to rally-killing double play grounders. And finding room for Perez and May in the lineup required the Reds to deploy Perez at third base, creating a fielding weakness. Thus the essential swap at the epicenter of this tectonic shift—May-for-Morgan—dealt with both issues at once, balancing the team’s offensive profile while clearing space for Perez to shift to first base, allowing the defense to be improved at third.
And from a practical standpoint, Howsam didn’t just get Morgan for May, he got so very much more. By simply adding the slick-fielding-but-light-hitting Helms and utility player Stewart to the package, Howsam yielded in return Menke (a solid veteran who would, in the short run, capably fill the third base opening), Billingham (a workhorse starting pitcher just entering his prime) and Geronimo (a 23-year-old outfielder with world-class defensive tools). Howsam even got the Astros to toss a prospect (Armbrister) into the jackpot.
One was left in gaping wonder (as one often was) what in the world Astros GM Spec Richardson was thinking: May and Helms were good talents, but each had obvious flaws; it just didn’t add up for Houston to surrender this quantity of resources to get them.
To be sure, it isn’t fair to credit Howsam with the prescience of anticipating Morgan’s subsequent improvement. But the issue is that even if Morgan hadn’t improved at all, and had just continued to perform for the Reds the way he’d performed for the Astros, Cincinnati still would have won this deal. Morgan’s sudden transformation from terrific all-around second baseman into inner-circle all-time great was simply delectable icing on the cake.
But when our Reds suggest a deal along these lines, our Astros giggle.
Dec. 2, 1971: The Houston Astros traded first baseman John Mayberry and infielder Dave Grangaard to the Kansas City Royals for pitchers Jim York and Lance Clemons.
And when the Royals propose this one, our Astros laugh out loud.
March 24, 1972: The Cincinnati Reds traded pitcher Tony Cloninger to the St. Louis Cardinals for second baseman Julian Javier.
Our Reds no longer have Cloninger, and don’t have a need for Javier.
The 1971-72 offseason: Deals we will invoke
Oct. 18, 1971: The Atlanta Braves traded outfielder-first baseman Art Shamsky to the St. Louis Cardinals for outfielder-first baseman Jim Beauchamp.
Beauchamp-for-Shamsky was one element of a big trade between the Cardinals and the New York Mets on this day. Shamsky’s chronically bad back really got the best of him in 1971, and our Braves want to get something for him while we can.
Nov. 3, 1971: The Atlanta Braves traded infielder Marty Martinez to the St. Louis Cardinals for catcher Bob Stinson.
Actually the Cards made this deal with Houston. Our Braves will accommodate them.
Nov. 29, 1971: The Cincinnati Reds traded first baseman Lee May to the St. Louis Cardinals for outfielder Matty Alou and pitcher Reggie Cleveland.
Unable to find interest in May from our Astros, our Reds find a taker in St. Louis.
We aren’t trading May because we find particular fault with him; he’s a terrific slugging first baseman in the prime of his career. But based on the same reasoning exhibited by the actual Reds, our version has concluded that for the long-term structural improvement of the ball club, either Lee May or Tony Perez has got to go.
In considering which of them to deal, we acknowledge that while Perez is the older of the two by a year, he’s also the better all-around athlete and has proven to be more durable, and is thus likely to age more gracefully. Most importantly, though May outhit Perez in 1971, over the course of their careers Perez has been the superior run producer. Perez doesn’t quite have May’s sheer power, but he draws more walks, and generally hits for the higher average.
The Cardinals would have a keen interest in May because in our scenario, they never traded Orlando Cepeda for Joe Torre. Therefore they’ve had Cepeda holding down first base, and in 1971 he suffered a recurrence of his old knee injury and missed the second half of the season, and at the age of 34 his future is in real doubt.
Under the circumstances, we find the package of Alou and Cleveland to be fair compensation. In his early 30s, Alou has lost a step and is past his prime, but he’s still a fine (left-handed!) hitter whom we can work into our corner outfield rotation. And the young right-hander Cleveland doesn’t project as a star, but he’s already established himself as a durable strike-thrower, a solid supporting cast member.
Dec. 3, 1971: The Houston Astros traded infielder Derrel Thomas and pitchers Bill Greif and Bob Snyder and cash to the San Diego Padres for pitcher Dave Roberts.
The actual deal included southpaw prospect Mark Schaeffer in place of the minor leaguer Snyder, but our Astros don’t have Schaeffer. He wasn’t the key to the deal anyway from the Padres’ perspective; Greif and, especially, Thomas, were, as both were impressive prospects.
But still, for San Diego:
This was a baffling move: the Padres were a very young team, struggling mightily to become competitive and build a fanbase, and here they were surrendering one of their best players, whom they’d patiently nurtured through his hard-knocks development phase, in exchange for yet more undeveloped young talent.
As did the real-life Astros, ours can recognize an immediate-term upgrade when we see it.
Dec. 3, 1971: The Cincinnati Reds traded pitcher Steve Mingori to the Houston Astros for pitcher Jim McGlothlin.
Each of our teams is perfectly happy with each of these guys, but it’s a matter of our Reds having more need for a right-handed starter than a left-handed reliever, and the opposite for our Astros.
Dec. 4, 1971: The Atlanta Braves traded catcher Bob Didier, pitcher Rick Kester, and cash to the Houston Astros for infielder Fred Stanley and catcher Mike Ryan.
Didier and Ryan are essentially the same player, but our Astros see this as an upgrade given that Didier is the younger by seven years. And Houston is willing to surrender Stanley because Ray Busse, a shortstop with some pop in his bat, looks ready for the majors.
Dec. 6, 1971: The Cincinnati Reds traded pitcher Wayne Simpson to the Cleveland Indians for outfielder Ted Uhlaender.
The actual deal was Milt Wilcox for Uhlaender, but our Reds aren’t willing to do that, and we see no reason to expect that the Indians wouldn’t have been just as happy to take Simpson.
March, 1972: The Houston Astros traded pitcher Jim Ray to the Pittsburgh Pirates for catcher-outfielder Carl Taylor and cash.
March, 1972: The Houston Astros sold catcher Larry Howard to the Kansas City Royals.
March, 1972: The Cincinnati Reds sold infielder-outfielder Jim Stewart to the Houston Astros.
March, 1972: The Atlanta Braves sold outfielder-first baseman Jim Beauchamp to the New York Mets.
March, 1972: The Atlanta Braves sold pitcher Jim Nash to the Boston Red Sox.
Putting the finishing touches on the Opening Day rosters.
April 15, 1972: The Houston Astros traded pitchers Scipio Spinks and Tom House to the St. Louis Cardinals for pitcher Jerry Reuss.
And then there’s this, enacted on the strike-delayed Opening Day itself. Actually it was Spinks and Lance Clemons for Reuss, but our Astros don’t have Clemons and House is more than adequate to take his place.
Spinks throws very hard and is an intriguing prospect, but he’s still fighting his control and isn’t nearly as developed as Reuss, who’s already got almost 350 big league innings under his belt. But as we’ve noted, from the Cardinals’ perspective this deal “… had nothing to with attempting to improve the St. Louis roster, and everything to do with ridding it of a personality who displeased [owner Gussie] Busch.” Our Astros will happily indulge the mercurial Busch’s fit of pique.
The 1972 season: Actual deals we will make
April 28, 1972: The Atlanta Braves signed pitcher Jim Hardin as a free agent.
A worthwhile salvage from the scrap heap. He was fleetingly a star and has always thrown strikes.
June 13, 1972: The Houston Astros purchased infielder Gary Sutherland from the Montreal Expos.
In the case of our Astros, replacing Ray Busse, who contrary to our expectation is proving not ready for prime time.
The 1972 season: Actual deals we will not make
May 19, 1972: The Cincinnati Reds traded outfielder Bernie Carbo to the St. Louis Cardinals for first baseman-outfielder Joe Hague.
It’s understandable that the Reds would be frustrated with Carbo, whose bat has fallen into a persistent funk following his brilliant 1970 rookie-year performance. But replacing him with Hague simply eliminates the upside, and moreover Hague is four years older than Carbo. We’ll take a breath and apply some patience.
May 25, 1972: The Houston Astros signed pitcher Joe Gibbon as a free agent.
We don’t need him.
June 29, 1972: The Atlanta Braves traded first baseman Orlando Cepeda to the Oakland Athletics for pitcher Denny McLain.
We don’t have Cepeda, and probably wouldn’t want to take on this particular piece of work anyway.
The 1972 season: Deals we will invoke
June 15, 1972: In a three-club deal, the Atlanta Braves sent pitcher Luis Tiant to the Boston Red Sox, and pitcher Gary Neibauer and cash to the Philadelphia Phillies. The Red Sox sent pitcher Jim Nash to the Phillies, and the Phillies sent pitcher Joe Hoerner and first baseman Andre Thornton to the Braves.
Actually on this date, the Braves traded Nash and Neibauer to the Phillies for Hoerner and Thornton. We’ll involve the Red Sox and square the circle.
Tiant was still struggling with his control in the spring of ’72. It would be just following this point that he would finally put it back together and re-emerge as a star. Dang it.
June 15, 1972: The Atlanta Braves sold pitcher Steve Barber to the California Angels.
June 15, 1972: The Atlanta Braves released pitcher Denny Lemaster.
We’re giving that ever-troublesome bullpen of ours a serious housecleaning.
1972 season results
Braves
We haven’t made significant alteration to the ball club that came very close to a division flag last year. We welcome Rico Carty back to the left field mix, and have tinkered with the backup catching, but largely it’s the same crew.
1972 Atlanta Braves Won 76 Lost 78 Finished 4th
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B J. Torre 31 145 544 76 161 26 3 17 81 54 67 .296 .364 .449 .812 122
2B F. Millan 28 125 498 50 128 19 3 1 38 23 28 .257 .288 .313 .602 65
SS M. Perez 26 113 286 21 65 8 1 1 17 18 33 .227 .274 .273 .547 51
3B D. Evans* 25 125 418 72 106 12 0 19 69 90 58 .254 .384 .419 .803 121
RF H. Aaron 38 129 449 80 119 10 0 34 78 92 55 .265 .390 .514 .904 147
CF D. Baker 23 127 446 64 143 27 2 17 77 45 68 .321 .382 .504 .886 142
LF-RF R. Garr* 26 123 462 79 149 18 0 10 45 21 33 .323 .353 .426 .779 113
C-OF E. Williams 23 136 452 52 117 19 2 22 71 50 94 .259 .337 .456 .793 116
LF R. Carty 32 95 271 30 75 12 2 6 30 44 33 .277 .378 .402 .780 115
IF D. Menke 31 86 256 26 64 10 1 8 24 32 45 .250 .330 .391 .721 97
OF M. Lum* 26 103 234 25 52 9 1 6 20 30 34 .222 .315 .346 .661 81
SS-2B F. Stanley 24 86 180 16 40 5 0 1 8 25 35 .222 .317 .267 .584 62
1B J. Breazeale* 22 61 113 15 29 3 0 6 18 9 15 .257 .311 .442 .754 105
C B. Stinson# 26 48 89 9 20 3 0 1 6 8 14 .225 .294 .292 .586 62
C P. Casanova 30 54 91 5 18 2 0 1 5 3 19 .198 .223 .253 .476 31
Others 52 6 15 3 0 1 5 3 9 .288 .321 .404 .725 98
Pitchers 394 26 67 6 0 3 24 19 140 .170 .197 .208 .404 11
Total 5235 652 1368 192 15 154 616 566 780 .261 .332 .392 .724 98
* Bats left
# Bats both
Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
P. Niekro 33 38 36 17 16 11 0 282 254 112 96 22 53 164 3.06 123
R. Reed 29 31 30 11 11 14 0 213 222 109 93 18 60 111 3.93 96
M. Pappas 33 29 28 10 16 8 0 195 187 68 60 18 29 80 2.77 136
G. Stone* 25 31 16 2 6 10 1 111 143 72 68 18 44 63 5.51 68
R. Schueler 24 28 13 2 5 7 1 109 91 50 44 12 45 72 3.63 104
T. Kelley 28 7 4 1 1 2 0 29 31 16 15 3 16 15 4.66 81
C. Upshaw 29 42 0 0 3 4 13 54 50 22 22 5 19 23 3.67 103
P. Jarvis 31 39 8 0 11 8 3 109 105 56 50 8 47 60 4.13 91
J. Hoerner* 35 25 0 0 1 3 3 23 34 18 17 4 8 19 6.65 57
M. McQueen* 21 22 6 1 0 4 2 70 71 40 36 10 40 36 4.63 81
J. Hardin 28 22 6 0 3 1 2 60 69 33 28 7 18 20 4.20 90
S. Barber* 34 14 0 0 0 0 1 27 26 14 14 1 19 13 4.67 81
D. Lemaster* 33 13 0 0 0 1 1 20 28 18 18 3 6 13 8.10 47
L. Tiant 31 12 3 0 0 3 0 27 24 14 13 2 22 21 4.33 87
G. Neibauer 27 5 0 0 0 0 0 11 18 10 9 4 4 5 7.36 51
Others 5 1 3 2 0 36 39 24 23 7 23 18 5.75 66
Total 155 45 76 78 27 1376 1392 676 606 142 453 733 3.96 95
* Throws left
In his sophomore season, center fielder Dusty Baker blossoms with the bat. But generally as a team we’re unable to hit as robustly as we’ve been accustomed. At age 38, Hank Aaron at last begins to appear semi-mortal, and 31-year-old Joe Torre merely hits well instead of brilliantly. Carty proves to be good, but not his old self. Overall our offense is pretty good, but nothing special.
And while our starting pitching isn’t too bad, that imploding bullpen is a complete disaster. The midseason reconstruction gets us nowhere, with Joe Hoerner’s cliff dive a particular frustration.
We’re never a factor in the race, and sag to just below .500, by far our worst showing since 1967.
Astros
The defending division champs haven’t made any big changes to the lineup. We’re looking for further development from our young hitters, and if left fielder Jim Wynn proves unable to bounce back from his dismal 1971 showing, we think we’ve got sufficient alternatives in Johnny Briggs and Bob Watson.
On the mound, we’re delighted that we’ve managed to add young southpaw starters Dave Roberts and Jerry Reuss to the league’s best staff without surrendering any of our key talent.
1972 Houston Astros Won 98 Lost 55 Finished 1st
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B J. Mayberry* 23 149 503 79 151 25 4 24 117 77 76 .300 .394 .509 .902 158
2B J. Morgan* 28 149 552 128 167 24 4 16 66 115 42 .303 .424 .447 .871 151
SS R. Metzger# 24 122 385 40 87 7 2 1 23 36 43 .226 .289 .262 .551 60
3B D. Rader 27 152 553 60 131 24 7 22 91 57 120 .237 .308 .425 .733 109
RF R. Staub* 28 66 239 45 71 12 1 8 45 31 13 .297 .374 .456 .830 137
CF C. Cedeño 21 139 559 108 179 39 8 22 97 56 62 .320 .384 .537 .921 162
LF-RF J. Wynn 30 138 488 109 133 26 3 22 73 93 89 .273 .388 .473 .862 147
C J. Edwards* 34 96 266 26 71 13 2 4 32 40 31 .267 .357 .376 .733 111
C-L-R B. Watson 26 98 274 31 81 13 2 7 44 25 44 .296 .358 .434 .793 127
OF C. Geronimo* 24 108 204 26 57 8 6 3 23 19 50 .279 .342 .422 .764 118
LF J. Briggs* 28 91 156 24 43 6 1 6 25 20 25 .276 .352 .442 .794 127
SS G. Sutherland 27 58 150 15 36 6 1 0 13 12 16 .240 .293 .293 .586 69
C B. Didier# 23 63 123 9 29 5 1 0 11 7 11 .236 .276 .293 .569 64
SS R. Busse 23 35 104 8 19 2 1 1 7 7 30 .183 .246 .250 .496 43
UT C. Taylor 28 53 75 11 19 1 1 0 7 11 12 .253 .348 .293 .642 86
UT J. Stewart# 33 57 64 9 13 3 1 0 6 4 6 .203 .243 .281 .524 50
RF-LF R. Chiles* 22 32 53 4 11 3 0 1 5 3 8 .208 .263 .321 .584 67
Others 9 1 2 0 0 0 0 2 1 .222 .364 .222 .586 72
Pitchers 401 26 61 6 1 5 23 11 167 .151 .161 .207 .367 5
Total 5158 759 1361 223 46 142 708 626 846 .264 .341 .407 .749 114
* Bats left
# Bats both
Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
M. Cuellar* 35 35 35 16 21 8 0 245 214 88 81 22 74 131 2.98 113
D. Wilson 27 33 33 13 16 10 0 228 196 78 68 16 66 172 2.68 125
L. Dierker 25 28 28 11 15 7 0 194 187 77 72 13 46 105 3.34 101
D. Roberts* 27 28 22 6 12 6 1 154 179 78 75 13 46 91 4.38 77
J. Reuss* 23 40 17 2 7 8 2 154 137 77 68 9 66 142 3.97 85
K. Forsch 25 31 12 1 6 4 0 125 125 57 51 13 50 93 3.67 92
D. Giusti 32 54 0 0 8 4 19 75 60 18 16 3 19 54 1.92 175
G. Culver 28 40 0 0 5 1 1 65 44 20 20 5 29 61 2.77 121
S. Mingori* 28 39 0 0 2 3 6 51 62 25 23 3 34 45 4.06 83
T. Griffin 24 31 4 1 5 3 1 75 74 31 27 6 30 65 3.24 104
Others 2 0 1 1 0 18 23 16 14 2 11 14 7.00 48
Total 153 50 98 55 30 1384 1301 565 515 105 471 973 3.35 100
* Throws left
We were looking for further development from Cesar Cedeño and John Mayberry. What we get instead is breakthroughs into superstardom. And 28-year-old Joe Morgan enjoys a breakout year too.
Wynn does bounce back to his accustomed level of heavy hitting. Losing right fielder Rusty Staub to a broken hand for more than half the season barely fazes us, because of the ready availability of Briggs and Watson, as well as young Cesar Geronimo, who hits well for the first time when given a chance to play.
Our offense which had been so sluggish in 1971 is suddenly transformed into the best unit in baseball, and it isn’t close.
That’s fortunate, because also quite unlike ’71, we have some pitching issues, as Roberts, sophomore Ken Forsch, and lefty reliever Steve Mingori encounter setbacks. But we have sufficient depth to ride it out.
Proving to be a ball club that can find a lot of different ways to win, we’re a repeat division champion.
Reds
Following our disappointing performance last year, we’ve made numerous adjustments. With May departed, Tony Perez moves over to first base. With Bobby Tolan ready to return to center field, the ever-versatile Pete Rose will take over for Perez at third. Veterans Matty Alou and Ted Uhlaender enhance the outfield depth.
Right-handers Reggie Cleveland and Jim McGlothlin are ready to bolster the starting staff, and flamethrowing young lefty Tom Hall as well as soft-tossing young righty Pedro Borbon join the bullpen.
1972 Cincinnati Reds Won 95 Lost 59 Finished 2nd
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B T. Perez 30 136 515 67 146 33 7 21 93 55 121 .283 .349 .497 .846 145
2B T. Helms 31 139 518 45 131 20 5 5 60 25 28 .253 .286 .340 .625 82
SS D. Concepcion 24 107 302 29 63 10 2 2 21 26 52 .209 .270 .275 .545 60
3B P. Rose# 31 154 645 107 198 31 11 6 57 73 46 .307 .381 .417 .798 133
RF B. Carbo* 24 112 291 43 69 12 1 7 35 58 54 .237 .369 .357 .726 113
CF B. Tolan* 26 149 604 97 171 28 5 8 74 44 88 .283 .331 .386 .717 109
LF H. McRae 26 116 377 43 99 20 2 14 63 17 41 .263 .298 .438 .736 113
C-O-1 J. Bench 24 147 538 92 145 22 2 40 119 100 84 .270 .379 .541 .920 166
OF-1B M. Alou* 33 93 289 36 87 12 1 2 31 20 21 .301 .345 .370 .715 109
SS-2B D. Chaney# 24 99 233 31 57 8 2 2 19 33 36 .245 .331 .322 .653 92
OF G. Foster 23 59 145 15 29 4 1 2 12 5 44 .200 .230 .283 .513 49
UT S. Jackson* 27 60 126 20 28 6 3 0 10 7 9 .222 .263 .317 .581 69
OF T. Uhlaender* 32 73 113 9 18 3 0 0 6 13 11 .159 .242 .186 .428 27
UT K. Bevacqua 25 67 116 11 25 3 1 2 8 7 18 .216 .258 .310 .568 66
C J. Hiatt 29 32 70 8 18 3 1 1 5 10 16 .257 .350 .371 .721 111
C S. Ruberto 26 22 34 2 6 1 0 0 3 2 6 .176 .237 .206 .443 31
Others 23 3 6 1 0 1 2 2 6 .261 .320 .435 .755 119
Pitchers 385 36 59 5 0 1 20 19 143 .152 .180 .173 .353 4
Total 5324 694 1355 222 44 114 638 516 824 .254 .318 .377 .695 102
* Bats left
# Bats both
Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
R. Grimsley* 22 34 32 4 14 8 1 218 224 84 78 19 67 87 3.22 100
R. Cleveland 24 30 30 10 14 11 0 208 193 98 84 20 52 137 3.63 89
G. Nolan 24 25 25 6 15 5 0 176 147 46 39 13 30 90 1.99 162
M. Wilcox 22 29 24 4 8 10 0 140 133 60 55 16 68 86 3.54 91
D. Gullett* 21 31 16 2 9 9 2 135 127 61 59 15 43 96 3.93 82
J. McGlothlin 28 25 18 2 7 6 0 116 129 53 48 11 39 56 3.72 87
C. Carroll 31 65 0 0 6 4 36 96 89 27 24 5 32 51 2.25 144
P. Borbon 25 62 2 0 8 3 10 122 115 45 43 5 32 48 3.17 102
T. Hall* 24 47 7 1 10 1 6 124 77 42 36 13 56 134 2.61 124
S. Blateric 28 21 0 0 3 2 1 39 31 12 10 2 16 33 2.31 140
M. Queen 30 17 0 0 1 0 0 31 36 19 18 2 20 20 5.23 62
Others 0 0 0 0 0 10 13 7 7 3 4 5 6.30 51
Total 154 29 95 59 50 1415 1314 554 501 124 459 843 3.19 101
* Throws left
Not everything goes well. Sophomore starters Don Gullett and Milt Wilcox don’t find things quite so easy this year. Veteran Mel Queen, who’d enjoyed a strong comeback season in 1971, falls apart again. The young bats of shortstop Dave Concepcion and outfielder George Foster fail to progress as expected, and Uhlaender’s bat appears to have been lost in transit.
But by and large things fall smartly into place. Tolan does just fine. Johnny Bench rebounds big time from his off-year, and with Rose and Perez both in customary form, our run production, while not quite what it as in 1968-70, is a lot healthier than a year ago.
And while our pitching isn’t great, it’s also improved. In his first full year, sophomore southpaw Ross Grimsley performs like a seasoned vet. Though limited to 25 starts by his tender arm and no longer throwing nearly as hard as before, Gary Nolan is a marvelous control artist at the age of 24. With Hall and Borbon both performing splendidly alongside veteran Clay Carroll, our bullpen is once again a particular strength.
We’re back as a serious contender. However, we’re not able to keep pace with that extraordinary Houston team.
Next time
Can the Machine catch up to the Spacemen? Can the Atlantans regain relevance?
Braves: Actual Astros: Actual Reds: Actual
Year W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA
1968 81 81 5 514 549 72 90 10 510 588 83 79 4 690 673
1969 93 69 1 691 631 81 81 5 676 668 89 73 3 798 768
1970 76 86 5 736 772 79 83 4 744 763 102 60 1 775 681
1971 82 80 3 643 699 79 83 4T 585 567 79 83 4T 586 581
1972 70 84 4 628 730 84 69 2 708 636 95 59 1 707 557
Braves: Virtual Astros: Virtual Reds: Virtual
Year W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA
1968 86 76 3 538 535 68 94 10 516 634 81 81 5 671 669
1969 105 57 1 762 597 94 68 2 726 611 90 72 3 794 752
1970 89 73 2 817 725 85 77 4T 726 692 104 58 1 779 675
1971 91 71 2 713 684 92 70 1 629 520 82 80 5 605 576
1972 76 78 4 652 676 98 55 1 759 565 95 59 2 694 554
References & Resources
I’ve introduced a new methodological feature here that wasn’t used in previous counterfactual scenarios.
In the past, each team’s runs scored total was determined simply by calculating the Runs Created based on the team’s aggregate batting stats, and going with that. However, just as teams normally vary somewhat from their projected Pythagorean won-lost records, they also normally vary somewhat from their Runs Created total.
Indeed, while it isn’t completely consistent in this regard, the variance from Runs Created tends to be slightly in the positive direction: in the 27 team-seasons included in this particular exercise—that is, each Atlanta, Houston, and Cincinnati team through the nine seasons from 1968 through 1976—the average actual team outscored its Runs Created projection by 4.3 percent.
So, just as we incorporate each team’s actual variance from its Pythagorean record in these exercises, we’ll now also incorporate each team’s actual variance from its Runs Created total.
These are the variances each team displayed in these years, that are factored into the team runs scored calculations:
1968: Braves -7.7%, Astros +5.6%, Reds -1.0%
1969: Braves +7.3%, Astros +12.1%, Reds +4.0%
1970: Braves +1.1%, Astros +5.4%, Reds -2.3%
1971: Braves -0.9%, Astros +6.6%, Reds +1.4%
1972: Braves -2.3%, Astros +7.8%, Reds +11.0%
1973: Braves +0.9%, Astros +8.4%, Reds +8.8%
1974: Braves +6.1%, Astros +0.8%, Reds +6.3%
1975: Braves +1.4%, Astros +8.3%, Reds +9.2%
1976: Braves +11.7%, Astros +4.5%, Reds +1.5%
Nice to see El Tiante heading to Boston, where he belongs.
Now if only Bernie Carbo eventually goes to Boston, too (the Reds, after all, would soon have a logjam in the OF in a year or two: Foster, McRae, Griffey, perhaps Driessen).
Patience with Carbo is understandable, given how he played in 1971. However, he gets off to a horrendous start in 1973, hitting 180/308/225 with no homeruns and only 9 RBIs through July 3rd. Clearly, the Red Sox could snatch him up for Ken Tatum and a couple of old Ted Williams autographed baseballs?
With the Astros keeping Geronimo and Armbrister, does this mean the Red Sox win game three, resulting in Carlton Fisk’s walk-off homer in game six deciding the Series?
I see the Astros more than make up the 10 1/2 games they finished behind Cincinnati and take the division.
Interesting that the Reds nearly mirrored their actual finish and RF-RA differential – and 95 wins wasn’t good enough to beat the remade Houston squad. Clearly the Morgan/May trade was the key difference.
This Astros team would have given the Pirates all they could have handled in the NLCS. But if the Bucs prevailed, Roberto Clemente (in what would end up his last games) would have made it to the World Series.
Curious as to the decisions made to assign playing time, for example reducing Bob Watson’s at bats and games started by Jerry Reuss.
One of the interesting ‘what ifs’ to think about is “if the Astros were determined to trade Morgan(who knows, maybe he had become such an insufferable jerk that they felt compelled to get him out of lockerroom), wasn’t there several other teams out there who could have put together better packages than the Reds? Again, just assuming Morgan was going to remain the pre-Reds quality player – I think the Pirates would have considered handing over Dave Cash or Rennie Stennett plus Al Oliver or Richie Zisk. And the Astros could have kept Menke, Billinghman and Geronimo. So, now Astros have Cash/Stennett at 2B(great improvement over Helms) and a bat(Oliver or Zisk) that would have more quality years than May PLUS Billingham, Menke and Geronimo. The Astros hit the daily double – they get better immediatly AND make their team younger for the rest of the decade.
Giving up Morgan is a bad move no matter who you get….but at least this scenario has a lot of positives for Astros.
I’m sure some of you can imagine similar packages that a few other teams could have put together. Didn’t the Astros shop Morgan around at all….or did they just fall for the first offer that came their way? Golly molly
“Curious as to the decisions made to assign playing time, for example reducing Bob Watson’s at bats and games started by Jerry Reuss.”
Watson gets squeezed for playing time in the Houston OF because of the presence of Staub, Geronimo, and Briggs, and he isn’t a good enough defensive catcher to be used back there on a regular basis.
Reuss gets squeezed for left-handed starts (as does Dave Roberts too) because of the presence of Cuellar.
I just don’t think the Astros understood their perceived “lack of power” year after year was entirely a function of the Astrodome, and always felt like they needed to add power hitters. Lee May, coming off a 39-homer season, was one of the best sluggers in the business. They didn’t understand that Morgan’s all-around game was better than what May had to offer—especially in a park where his central skill as a ballplayer would be hamstrung.
Steve,
Another great work.
I should have clarified. Yes, the playing time reductions for Watson, Reuss and Roberts makes total sense.
Wondering more how it was done. In other words, why 274 at bats for Watson instead of 350? Did you assign playing time to the outfielders in question? Pro-rated their plate appearances, for example?
Games started for pitchers is probably an easier task but did you create any hard rules for assigning the IP for the bullpen or go with your gut instinct about the players in question or using past performance as a guide?
I’ve analyzed similar scenarios. For example, voiding the Reggie Jackson for Don Baylor trade in 1976 meant essentially assigning Jackson’s games in the OF/DH to Baylor and vice-versa.
Adding extra GP for Reggie with an assumption he wouldn’t have been a hold out in Oakland meant reducing playing time for Billy Williams, Larry Lintz, Matt Alexander, etc.
(This all part of alternate timeline scenario which assumes there was no Messersmith/McNally arbitration to cause a cascading effect of hold-outs and free agent signings.)
Also, to use Tony Perez as an example, I see his 1972 baseline stats are the same. But how does his Runs and RBI change? I first calculate the player’s Runs & RBI as a percentage of the team total. As the team totals (based on RC) go up or down, the player’s individual R & RBI production is adjusted accordingly with an additional pro-rated adjustment if his playing time is increased/decreased.
In Jackson/Baylor’s case, the first calculation is adjusting for ballpark effects. Then playing time. Then I would adjust their Runs and RBI in context to their new club’s run production.
great piece.
couple of things, though.
bench was not all that slow on the bases.
he did ground into oodles of double plays, which tied into being right-handed, with lots of people on base, on turf.
bench could run fairly well.
fairly well.
and after 1971, joe morgan was not rennie stennet, dave cash, or willie randolph.
let alone, including zisk, or oliver in a trade.
morgan was a really good obp guy, with decent power,not a good glove, a shredded knee, and an uncertain age.
reds made a great trade, but i think that they wanted a fast guy batting first, not that they guessed that morgan would be as really good as he turned out.
“bench could run fairly well.”
For a catcher, yes, the young Bench ran fairly well. But he was a big catcher, and he was distinctly slower on the bases than the league-average baserunner.
have to grant your comment.
but, after he got fat (steroids & surgery) after ‘72, the stolen bases were there—possibly a function of morgan, and trailing.
don’t know.
going first to third, and second to home, on singles, he was dead on the ml average.
advancing on caught fly balls—no numbers to back this up—, but he seemed to do this proficiently.
no, he was a smart, and efficient baserunner through his career.
not great, but fairly good.
“why 274 at bats for Watson instead of 350? Did you assign playing time to the outfielders in question? Pro-rated their plate appearances, for example?”
Yes, while AB’s is the stat displayed here, PA’s is the playing time stat used in the calculation. How I come up with the exact amounts is just my best guess based on context and history and plausibility, and, well, my mood at the time.
“did you create any hard rules for assigning the IP for the bullpen or go with your gut instinct about the players in question or using past performance as a guide?”
The latter.
“Tony Perez as an example, I see his 1972 baseline stats are the same. But how does his Runs and RBI change?”
With no Morgan, both Perez and Bench move up one notch in the batting order. Perez drives in a few more runs because he’s closer to the top of the order table-setters, and he scores a few more because Hal McRae behind him is a little better than Denis Menke. Johnny Bench, on the other hand, drives in a few less because of the absence of Morgan being on base so much, but scores a few more for the same reason Perez does.
Every player’s runs and RBIs are adjusted accordingly. A little bit science, but mostly art.