The virtual 1969-76 Phillies, Cardinals, and Mets (Part 1: 1968-69)
We had some fun a while back imagining a virtual scenario in the American League East Division in the years immediately following the 1968-69 expansion. How about this time we run a similar exercise in the National League East over the same years. Our participating franchises each undertook quite a few big-talent trades in this period, not all of which were, well, entirely well-founded. How might have things plausibly gone differently?
1968-69 offseason: Actual deals we will make
(We’ll assume all three of our ball clubs surrendered the players they actually did in the October 1968 expansion draft.)
Oct. 11, 1968: The St. Louis Cardinals traded catchers Johnny Edwards and Tommy Smith to the Houston Astros for pitcher Dave Giusti and catcher Dave Adlesh.
We’ve discussed before just what a baffling trade this was on the part of the Astros. For now, suffice to say our Cardinals will gladly accept the durable right-hander Giusti for this bargain price.
Oct. 16, 1968: The New York Mets sold outfielder Don Bosch to the Montreal Expos.
Dec., 1968: The St. Louis Cardinals traded pitcher Jim Cosman to the New York Mets for infielder Jerry Buchek.
Dec. 3, 1968: The St. Louis Cardinals traded infielder Dick Schofield to the Boston Red Sox for pitcher Gary Waslewski.
Reasonable tinkerings at the marginal end of the rosters.
Dec. 3, 1968: The St. Louis Cardinals traded outfielder Ron Davis, third baseman Ed Spiezio, catcher Danny Breeden, and pitcher Phil Knuckles to the San Diego Padres for pitcher Dave Giusti.
And our Cardinals will be fine with re-acquiring Giusti, as did the actual Cardinals, after surrendering him in the expansion draft.
Dec. 3, 1968: The Philadelphia Phillies purchased infielder-outfielder Deron Johnson from the Atlanta Braves.
The power-hitting Johnson’s fall from fleeting mid-1960s stardom has been swift. But he’s still only 30, and can handle multiple defensive positions. It makes sense for our rebuilding Phillies to give him a chance to get re-established.
Dec. 4, 1968: The New York Mets traded catcher Hector Valle to the Detroit Tigers for pitcher Jack DiLauro.
Feb. 12, 1969: The St. Louis Cardinals purchased outfielder Byron Browne from the Houston Astros.
More of that tinkering stuff.
March 17, 1969: The St. Louis Cardinals traded first baseman Orlando Cepeda to the Atlanta Braves for catcher-first baseman Joe Torre.
Blockbusters don’t get much bigger. As we’ve explained this one:
Yes, Cepeda had been once been a terrific player; as recently as his MVP season of 1967, in fact. And yes, Torre had suffered an injury-nagged, sub-par performance in 1968.
But Cepeda had slumped even worse than Torre in ’68. Moreover, Cepeda was three years older than Torre, and had a history of serious knee trouble. All in all, the notion that Torre-for-Cepeda was a sensible talent swap from the Braves’ perspective was, well, nuts.
However, a clear-eyed analysis of the talent really wasn’t what was motivating Atlanta GM Paul Richards.
Like the real-life Cardinals, we’ll be quite eager to be the beneficiary of The Wizard of Waxahachie’s tantrum.
March 25, 1969: The St. Louis Cardinals traded catcher Dave Adlesh to the Atlanta Braves for infielder Bob Johnson.
April 3, 1969: The St. Louis Cardinals sold pitcher Bo Belinsky to the California Angels.
April 3, 1969: The St. Louis Cardinals traded infielder Jerry Buchek and infielder-outfielder Jim Hutto to the Philadelphia Phillies for first baseman Bill White.
And some final end-of-spring-training tinkering.
1968-69 offseason: Actual deals we will not make
Oct. 11, 1968: The St. Louis Cardinals traded outfielder Bobby Tolan and pitcher Wayne Granger to the Cincinnati Reds for outfielder Vada Pinson.
What was going on with this Blockbuster?
The wager here was on the question of whether the longtime star Pinson would rebound at age 30 from the leg trouble that had nagged him in 1968: [Cardinals’ GM Bing] Devine bet yes, and Reds’ GM Bob Howsam … bet no. Howsam would be proven correct, and moreover Tolan and Granger, who’d both shown promise in St. Louis, would immediately blossom as stars in Cincinnati.
Our Cards won’t take that action. The combination of the not-yet-23-year-old Tolan and the 24-year-old Granger is just too steep a price. Instead, we’ll give Tolan the full shot at our right field job, and keep Granger in our bullpen.
Oct. 21, 1968: The St. Louis Cardinals traded pitcher Pete Mikkelsen to the Los Angeles Dodgers for pitcher Jim Ellis.
Ellis is a youthful left-hander, and they’re always nice to have. But he’s only a so-so prospect. The knuckleballing Mikkelsen, meanwhile, has had major league success in the past, had a tremendous season in triple-A in 1968, and is still a year shy of 30. He deserves a chance at winning a bullpen job in spring training.
Oct. 29, 1968: The Philadelphia Phillies released pitcher Dick Hall.
He’s just turned 37 years old, and delivered a poor year in 1968. But on the other hand, Hall was terrific in 1967. While he’s not a good candidate for our roster as we rebuild, we think the long tall right-hander with the herky-jerky delivery probably still has some market value. We’ll shop him around.
Feb. 5, 1969: The New York Mets traded catcher-first baseman Greg Goossen and cash to the Seattle Pilots for a player to be named later. (On July 14, 1969, the Pilots sent outfielder Jim Gosger to the Mets, completing the deal.)
As we put it here:
Goossen had failed to develop good defensive skills behind the plate, prompting the actual Mets to give up on him. But he was still only 23, and his minor league power stats were impressive. Given that we’ve got room for a right-handed-batting platoon partner at first base, we’ll keep Goossen around and see if he might be able to handle that.
March 29, 1969: The St. Louis Cardinals purchased pitcher Dennis Ribant from the Kansas City Royals.
Precisely because our Cardinals still have the likes of Granger and Mikkelsen on hand, we have no need to be bottom-feeding in our bullpen.
The 1968-69 offseason: Deals we will invoke
Dec., 1968: The New York Mets traded outfielder Ron Swoboda, first baseman Ed Kranepool, and pitchers Danny Frisella and Steve Renko to the Philadelphia Phillies for outfielder Johnny Callison, pitcher Woodie Fryman, and infielder-outfielder Rick Joseph.
They’re both still quite young, but our Mets are frustrated with the stalled progress of Swoboda and Kranepool. Our Phillies need to get younger, and are concerned with the deteriorating performance of the erstwhile star Callison, even though he hasn’t yet turned 30.
So both clubs will take the chance that a change of scenery might do some good. We’ll expand on that by giving the Phils a pair of pretty good right-handed pitching prospects in exchange for the journeyman southpaw Fryman and the utilityman Joseph.
Dec., 1968: In a three-club deal, the Philadelphia Phillies traded outfielder Don Lock and pitcher Dick Farrell to the Boston Red Sox for outfielder Bill Schlesinger. The Red Sox sent pitcher Fred Wenz to the Washington Senators, and the Senators sent catcher Billy Bryan to the Phillies.
The Lock-for-Schlesinger exchange would actually take place in the spring of 1969. We’ll build on that to provide the Red Sox with some veteran bullpen help (which they could use), the Senators a hard-throwing prospect (which they could use), and our Phillies with a left-handed-batting catcher (which we can use).
Jan. 20, 1969: The Philadelphia Phillies traded catcher Clay Dalrymple and pitcher Dick Hall to the Baltimore Orioles for pitcher Fred Beene and outfielder-first baseman Ron Stone.
The actual trade on this date was Dalrymple-for-Stone. We know the Orioles also like Hall (they would sign him as a free agent in the spring of ’69), and it’s plausible they’d have surrendered the second-tier prospect Beene to get him.
March, 1969: The St. Louis Cardinals sold pitcher Gary Waslewski to the Cincinnati Reds.
March, 1969: The St. Louis Cardinals sold pitcher Ron Willis to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Neither of these right-handers makes our staff. The Reds will have to take Waslewski instead of Granger, and the Dodgers will have to take Willis instead of Mikkelsen.
March, 1969: The Philadelphia Phillies purchased pitcher Jim Ellis from the Los Angeles Dodgers.
And our Phillies will take Ellis off the Dodgers’ hands.
April 3, 1969: The New York Mets sold pitcher Al Jackson to the St. Louis Cardinals.
Our Cardinals do have an opening for a lefty in the bullpen, and the veteran Jackson is being squeezed off our Mets’ staff by some younger arms.
April 7, 1969: The Philadelphia Phillies traded pitchers John Boozer and Tony Giresi, outfielder Rich Barry, and cash to the New York Mets for pitcher Don Cardwell and infielder Kevin Collins.
Neither the veteran Cardwell nor the youngster Collins are going to make the New York roster this spring, so our Mets will accept this package of triple-A filler plus a low-level prospect from our Phils.
The 1969 season: Actual deals we will make
May 22, 1969: The St. Louis Cardinals traded infielder John Sipin and catcher Sonny Ruberto to the San Diego Padres for infielder Jerry DaVanon and and first baseman Bill Davis.
DaVanon and Davis were rookies who’d been given first-string opportunities with the maiden-voyage Padres in 1969, and neither hit at all in the season’s opening weeks. It was something of an overreaction for San Diego GM Buzzie Bavasi to abruptly dispose of them like this, but like the actual Cardinals, we’ll be happy to accommodate. Among this quartet, DaVanon is the guy we still think has the best chance of a major league future.
May 30, 1969: The St. Louis Cardinals traded outfielder Jim Hicks to the California Angels for outfielder Vic Davalillo.
When provided the offer to exchange a minor league journeyman for a major league journeyman, the proper response is “yes.”
June 13, 1969: The St. Louis Cardinals sold pitcher Al Jackson to the Cincinnati Reds.
We’ll let Cincinnati be the last stop for the veteran southpaw.
Aug. 12, 1969: The New York Mets sold outfielder-infielder Billy Sorrell to the Kansas City Royals.
We can afford to part with this minor league journeyman.
Sep. 6, 1969: The Philadelphia Phillies traded pitcher Gary Wagner to the Boston Red Sox for pitcher Mike Jackson.
A way to get a little younger.
The 1969 season: Actual deals we will not make
April 12, 1969: The Philadelphia Phillies traded catcher John Sullivan and pitcher Tony Giresi to the Baltimore Orioles for catcher Vic Roznovsky.
We fail to grasp the point of exchanging a 28-year-old left-handed-batting backup catcher for a 30-year-old left-handed-batting backup catcher, plus tossing in a prospect.
June 3, 1969: The St. Louis Cardinals traded pitcher Gary Waslewski to the Montreal Expos for pitcher Mudcat Grant.
Our Cardinals don’t have Waslewski any more, so no Mudcat for us. Presumably it would be Cincinnati making this deal with the Expos.
June 15, 1969: The New York Mets traded infielder Kevin Collins and pitchers Steve Renko, Jay Carden and Dave Colon to the Montreal Expos for first baseman Donn Clendenon.
Our Mets still have Greg Goossen, and so have no need for the veteran Clendenon. Our Phillies have Collins and Renko, but are similarly disinterested in Clendenon.
The 1969 season: Deals we will invoke
April 17, 1969: The Philadelphia Phillies purchased pitcher Bo Belinsky from the California Angels.
Ace southpaw Chris Short has been sidelined with a back injury, so our Phillies are in sudden need of a left-hander. We believe the Angels, who actually sent Belinsky to the minors in the spring before selling him to Pittsburgh in July, would accept a cash offer for the ultra-colorful left-hander.
May 17, 1969: The Philadelphia Phillies traded pitcher Bo Belinsky and cash to the Pittsburgh Pirates for pitcher Jim Shellenback.
On this date the Pirates actually traded Shellenback to the Senators for Frank Kreutzer. For all his faults, Belinsky is better than Kreutzer (and, of course, the Pirates would actually acquire Belinsky in the summer of ’69), so we presume they’d prefer Belinsky instead of Kretuzer now. And we don’t understand why the Pirates were casting off the soft-tossing 25-year-old lefty Shellenback anyway, so our Phillies are happy to exchange Belinsky for him.
July 12, 1969: The St. Louis Cardinals traded infielder Bob Johnson and cash to the Oakland Athletics for infielder Jim Driscoll.
Actually the Cardinals traded Johnson to the A’s for journeyman outfielder Joe Nossek, but our Cards will take the minor league journeyman Driscoll instead.
1969 season results
Phillies
In a full-stop rebuilding year, we’re introducing new faces all over the place. Rookies will get the opportunity to win first-string jobs at shortstop (Don Money) and center field (Larry Hisle), and, well, just about every spot in the bullpen. Newly-acquired young veterans will take over at first base (Kranepool) and right field (Swoboda).
Journeymen with checkered pasts will get serious shots at third base (Deron Johnson), catcher (Bryan), and the starting rotation (Cardwell). A couple of young pitchers with limited experience, Grant Jackson and Jerry Johnson, will find out what they can do as starters.
1969 Philadelphia Phillies Won 64 Lost 98 Finished 5th
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B E. Kranepool* 24 106 318 32 75 8 3 9 32 32 30 .236 .301 .365 .666 88
2B C. Rojas 30 110 391 35 89 11 1 4 27 23 28 .228 .266 .292 .557 58
SS-3B D. Money 22 127 450 41 103 22 2 6 39 43 83 .229 .292 .327 .619 75
3B-2B T. Taylor 33 124 446 53 117 19 4 2 21 34 50 .262 .316 .336 .653 85
RF R. Swoboda 25 99 294 34 68 9 3 7 35 38 83 .231 .320 .354 .674 91
CF-RF L. Hisle 22 145 482 73 128 23 5 20 53 48 152 .266 .337 .459 .796 123
LF-1B R. Allen 27 118 438 78 126 23 3 32 86 64 144 .288 .375 .573 .949 165
C B. Bryan* 30 105 300 33 68 10 0 9 28 33 85 .227 .304 .350 .654 85
UT D. Johnson 30 138 475 50 121 19 4 17 77 60 111 .255 .332 .419 .751 112
OF J. Briggs* 25 124 361 50 86 20 3 12 43 64 78 .238 .351 .410 .761 115
C M. Ryan 27 89 223 20 44 8 1 6 20 14 34 .197 .246 .323 .569 60
SS-2B T. Harmon 25 87 201 25 48 8 1 0 14 22 31 .239 .322 .289 .610 74
IF K. Collins* 22 88 201 14 44 11 2 4 21 13 49 .219 .264 .353 .617 73
OF R. Stone* 26 77 167 18 39 5 1 1 16 21 22 .234 .320 .293 .613 75
C J. Sullivan* 28 48 98 6 19 4 0 1 7 7 19 .194 .245 .265 .511 45
OF B. Schlesinger 27 22 39 5 8 1 0 2 5 3 11 .205 .256 .385 .640 79
Others 163 20 41 5 1 1 10 14 23 .252 .311 .313 .624 77
Pitchers 391 24 72 6 1 4 28 11 140 .184 .196 .233 .429 21
Total 5438 611 1296 212 35 137 562 544 1173 .238 .305 .366 .671 89
* Bats left
Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
G. Jackson* 26 38 31 11 13 17 1 228 211 98 83 14 83 163 3.28 109
R. Wise 23 33 31 14 15 13 0 220 215 97 79 17 61 144 3.23 110
D. Cardwell 33 30 21 4 7 10 1 152 144 58 50 14 47 60 2.96 121
J. Johnson 25 33 21 4 6 13 1 147 151 76 70 18 57 82 4.29 83
J. Shellenback 25 30 11 2 3 7 1 85 95 43 40 7 43 54 4.24 84
J. James 27 6 5 1 2 2 0 32 36 20 19 5 14 21 5.34 67
C. Short* 31 2 2 0 0 0 0 10 11 8 8 2 4 5 7.20 50
A. Raffo 27 45 0 0 1 3 3 72 81 35 33 6 25 38 4.13 87
F. Beene 26 43 13 3 7 7 5 148 161 76 67 17 42 77 4.07 88
J. Ellis* 24 39 8 1 2 6 2 99 106 49 44 3 56 50 4.00 89
B. Wilson 26 37 0 0 2 5 6 62 53 26 23 6 36 48 3.34 107
D. Frisella 23 28 7 2 4 2 2 93 96 39 37 10 26 43 3.58 100
G. Wagner 29 9 2 0 0 3 0 19 31 22 17 3 7 8 8.05 44
B. Belinsky* 32 8 3 0 0 3 0 18 18 10 9 1 13 14 4.50 79
Others 7 1 2 7 1 57 59 34 33 7 30 40 5.21 69
Total 162 43 64 98 23 1442 1468 691 612 130 544 847 3.82 93
* Throws left
The multitude of changes is overshadowed by the Philadelphia season’s big story, which is the festering feud between superstar left fielder Richie Allen and management. He ends up spending a full quarter of the season on one suspension or another.
Though Allen hits up his usual storm when in the lineup, his frequent absence isn’t something this ball club can afford. Hisle has a terrific rookie year, and Deron Johnson resurrects his career with a strong supersub contribution, but by and large the hitters struggle.
Jackson and young Rick Wise step forward as solid starters, and Cardwell comes through in modulated usage, but by and large the pitchers struggle as well.
So we aren’t a good team. And to make a tough situation worse, we underperform our Pythagorean record by seven wins. Coming in at 64-98, it’s the worst Phillies’ finish since 1961.
Cardinals
Coming off back-to-back pennant-winning seasons, we haven’t made many alterations to the roster. Torre replaces Cepeda at first base, and Giusti replaces Larry Jaster (lost in the expansion draft) as the fifth starter. With the retirement of Roger Maris, young Bobby Tolan will get the chance to win the right field job.
1969 St. Louis Cardinals Won 98 Lost 64 Finished 2nd
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B-C J. Torre 28 159 602 77 174 29 6 18 113 66 85 .289 .361 .447 .808 126
2B J. Javier 32 143 493 63 139 28 2 10 48 40 74 .282 .333 .408 .741 107
SS D. Maxvill 30 116 279 22 48 7 2 1 24 33 38 .172 .257 .222 .479 36
3B M. Shannon 29 144 513 51 131 14 5 11 58 46 81 .255 .315 .366 .682 91
RF-CF B. Tolan* 23 152 637 95 195 26 12 16 86 28 90 .306 .344 .460 .804 124
CF C. Flood 31 149 576 84 164 29 3 4 61 46 54 .285 .340 .366 .706 98
LF L. Brock* 30 157 655 107 195 33 10 12 54 50 115 .298 .348 .434 .781 118
C T. McCarver* 27 138 515 49 134 27 3 7 58 49 26 .260 .321 .365 .686 92
IF S. Huntz# 23 79 161 17 32 5 0 4 18 31 38 .199 .328 .304 .632 79
2B P. Gagliano 27 62 128 8 29 2 0 1 12 14 12 .227 .301 .266 .566 60
P-PH B. Gibson 33 37 118 11 29 6 0 1 8 3 36 .246 .252 .322 .574 60
3B-1B B. Johnson 33 35 72 6 18 2 0 2 9 5 9 .250 .291 .361 .652 82
SS J. Driscoll* 25 34 68 9 15 3 1 1 5 7 16 .221 .286 .338 .624 75
OF V. Davalillo* 32 53 65 11 17 2 0 1 8 5 5 .262 .314 .338 .653 83
1B B. White* 35 49 57 7 12 1 0 0 5 11 15 .211 .338 .228 .566 62
OF B. Browne 26 32 53 10 11 0 1 1 8 11 14 .208 .344 .302 .646 83
OF-1B J. Hague* 25 27 50 4 8 1 1 1 5 5 13 .160 .236 .280 .516 45
C D. Ricketts# 33 30 44 2 12 1 0 0 6 4 5 .273 .320 .295 .615 74
RF J. Hicks 29 16 29 3 5 0 1 1 3 3 9 .172 .250 .345 .595 66
Others 102 14 26 5 2 1 15 13 24 .255 .336 .373 .709 99
Pitchers 328 9 50 9 1 2 17 15 131 .152 .179 .204 .383 7
Total 5545 659 1444 230 50 95 621 485 890 .260 .319 .371 .690 93
* Bats left
# Bats both
Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
B. Gibson 33 35 35 28 22 11 0 314 251 84 76 12 95 269 2.18 164
S. Carlton* 24 31 31 12 19 9 0 236 185 66 57 15 93 210 2.17 164
N. Briles 25 36 33 10 17 11 0 228 218 104 89 17 63 126 3.51 102
R. Washburn 31 23 19 2 4 8 0 132 139 60 48 9 47 79 3.27 109
C. Taylor 27 19 16 6 8 4 0 127 111 41 40 10 29 58 2.83 126
D. Giusti 29 17 14 2 5 7 0 100 102 45 42 7 38 63 3.78 94
M. Torrez 22 13 7 1 5 2 0 53 45 19 19 3 28 25 3.23 111
W. Granger 25 67 0 0 6 4 15 97 91 34 26 4 27 50 2.41 148
J. Hoerner* 32 45 0 0 3 2 12 53 44 18 17 5 9 35 2.89 124
P. Mikkelsen 29 32 0 0 5 3 2 54 38 19 16 5 20 35 2.67 134
T. Hilgendorf* 27 15 4 0 2 2 1 31 33 15 13 3 9 19 3.77 95
A. Jackson* 33 9 0 0 0 0 0 11 18 13 13 1 4 10 10.64 34
Others 3 0 2 1 0 23 22 10 10 2 12 17 3.91 91
Total 162 61 98 64 30 1459 1297 528 466 93 474 996 2.87 124
* Throws left
A couple of things don’t go so well. The always light bat of shortstop Dal Maxvill becomes featherweight, and Giusti is hampered by a back injury.
But nearly everything else goes as expected, or better than expected. Tolan blossoms into stardom, as does third-year starter Steve Carlton. Veteran second baseman Julian Javier comes up with a career year at the plate. Sophomore reliever Wayne Granger emerges as a superior fireman.
Combined with another brilliant year from ace Bob Gibson, excellent performances from Torre and left fielder Lou Brock, and solid seasons from center fielder Curt Flood, catcher Tim McCarver, and starting pitcher Nelson Briles, this two-time defending champion cruises to a 98-victory season.
But it isn’t enough.
Mets
Though we were a ninth-place team in 1968, as ninth-place teams go, we were pretty good: a 73-89 record, and a 77-85 Pythagorean record. Despite the ghastly history of our young franchise, it’s reasonable for us to think we’re ready to step up to middle-of-the-pack status.
On that basis we swapped Swoboda and Kranepool for Callison and Fryman, exchanging youth and potential for current-day productivity. We remain a distinctly young ball club, but we’re ready to step up our level of expectation of performance. We believe our humiliating tenure as a tail-ender is ready to end this year.
1969 New York Mets Won 101 Lost 61 Finished 1st
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B-LF A. Shamsky* 27 100 303 42 91 9 3 14 47 36 32 .300 .372 .488 .861 138
2B K. Boswell* 23 131 460 53 125 16 9 3 40 43 62 .272 .333 .365 .699 95
SS B. Harrelson# 25 123 395 39 98 11 6 0 24 54 54 .248 .337 .306 .643 80
3B-OF A. Otis 22 131 394 42 96 15 3 8 42 34 81 .244 .298 .358 .656 82
RF J. Callison* 30 134 495 66 132 29 4 18 69 50 71 .267 .335 .451 .785 117
CF T. Agee 26 149 565 97 153 23 4 26 76 59 137 .271 .339 .464 .802 121
LF C. Jones 26 137 483 92 164 25 4 12 75 64 60 .340 .421 .482 .904 151
C J. Grote 26 113 365 38 92 12 3 6 40 32 59 .252 .308 .351 .659 83
1B-C G. Goossen 23 99 269 30 73 13 2 11 39 23 59 .271 .338 .457 .795 120
3B-1B R. Joseph 29 99 264 30 73 15 0 7 37 23 56 .277 .331 .413 .744 106
IF W. Garrett* 21 83 200 18 42 5 2 1 19 19 39 .210 .276 .270 .546 53
OF R. Gaspar# 23 91 193 21 44 5 1 1 13 22 17 .228 .304 .280 .583 64
SS-2B A. Weis# 31 93 198 15 42 7 2 2 18 11 42 .212 .247 .298 .544 51
C J. Martin* 32 66 177 12 37 5 1 4 21 12 32 .209 .255 .316 .572 58
3B E. Charles 36 61 169 19 35 8 1 3 18 18 31 .207 .286 .320 .605 68
1B B. Sorrell* 28 20 56 4 12 2 0 1 5 7 10 .214 .302 .304 .605 69
Others 31 3 8 2 0 1 2 5 7 .258 .361 .419 .780 117
Pitchers 420 17 44 6 0 1 19 14 203 .105 .130 .126 .257 -28
Total 5437 638 1361 208 45 119 604 526 1052 .250 .315 .371 .685 90
* Bats left
# Bats both
Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
T. Seaver 24 36 35 18 25 7 0 273 202 75 67 24 82 208 2.21 165
J. Koosman* 26 32 32 16 17 9 0 241 187 66 61 14 68 180 2.28 160
G. Gentry 22 35 35 6 13 12 0 234 192 94 89 24 81 154 3.42 106
W. Fryman* 29 30 21 5 9 9 0 152 152 79 68 10 59 105 4.03 90
J. McAndrew 25 27 21 4 6 7 0 135 112 57 52 12 44 90 3.47 105
N. Ryan 22 25 10 2 6 3 1 89 60 38 35 3 53 92 3.54 103
R. Taylor 31 59 0 0 9 4 13 76 61 23 23 7 24 42 2.72 134
T. McGraw* 24 42 4 1 9 3 12 100 89 31 25 6 47 92 2.25 162
C. Koonce 28 40 0 0 6 3 7 83 85 53 46 8 42 48 4.99 73
J. DiLauro* 26 23 4 0 1 4 1 64 50 19 17 4 18 27 2.39 152
J. Boozer 30 9 0 0 0 0 0 16 18 10 8 2 7 9 4.50 81
Others 0 0 0 0 1 5 8 5 4 0 4 4 7.20 51
Total 162 52 101 61 35 1468 1216 550 495 114 529 1051 3.03 120
* Throws left
Well, then!
The media dubs us the “Miracle Mets” for this stunning performance. To be sure, we benefit from a stroke of exceptionally good fortune, outperforming our Pythagorean projection by eight wins, enough to vault us past the Cardinals into first place.
But a 93-win Pythag team is an excellent team. Led by star turns from the rapidly-developing Cleon Jones and the strongly-rebounding Tommie Agee, and ably assisted by a solid contribution from Callison and a superb first base platoon of Art Shamsky and Greg Goossen, our run production isn’t a strength, but it’s competent.
And our run prevention is terrific. While not quite as brilliant as that of St. Louis, our pitching, fronted by the dazzling young aces Tom Seaver and Jerry Koosman, is sensational, and the fielding—particularly Agee in center, Bud Harrelson at shortstop, and Jerry Grote behind the plate—is unsurpassed.
We had raised our expectations for 1969, but this crew soared far above them. Let the champagne flow.
Phillies: Actual Cardinals: Actual Mets: Actual
Year W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA
1969 63 99 5 645 745 87 75 4 595 540 100 62 1 632 541
Phillies: Virtual Cardinals: Virtual Mets: Virtual
Year W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA
1969 64 98 5 611 691 98 64 2 659 528 101 61 1 638 550
Next time
We’ll see what happens to our boys as the Me Decade dawns.
Steve, I love this series, thanks! Big question is, will you deal Carlton over $5K? Can’t wait to see.
and what will the Mets look like without Joe Foy or Jim Fregosi.
I thought I remembered Pete Mikkelsen as palm ball pitcher and not a knuckleballer. I have also seen references to Mikkelsen as a fork ball pitcher, too.
Looks like this’ll be a good series.
I remember redoing the 1969-1992 NL with one difference – the Cardinals in the West, and the Reds in the East, which makes more geographic sense – then adjusted the schedules to reflect their different divisions, rounding the real-life records. Here’s how the ‘70s would’ve turned out:
Cincinnati Reds – 7 division titles (instead of 6)
Los Angeles Dodgers – 7 division titles (instead of 3)
Pittsburgh Pirates – 1 division title (instead of 6)
In Brandon Isleib’s “a league divided” series (an inspiration for that experiment), he points out that the 1970s Reds and Dodgers get “dynasties out of nowhere,” “once they’re not direct competitors.” His experiment included a third division, but even in a two-division setup those teams would’ve paced their respective divisions.
With the Pirates having to play 18 games against the Reds and 12 against the Cardinals every year, they wouldn’t have won a single division title between 1971 and 1990. (The ‘90 Pirates, who won 10 of their last 11 games in September, would edge out the Reds, 95 wins to 94. The ‘91 Pirates would win 99 games; the Cubs, Mets and Phillies would finish in a three-way tie for second with 78.)
As for ‘79, the Pirates would lose two wins, falling to 96-66; the Montreal Expos would stay the same at 95-65, requiring them to make up both games against Atlanta to qualify for the postseason. I gave the division to Montreal there for three reasons: because 95-65 is a better winning percentage than 96-66; because they lost only once to the Braves all season; and because Expos fans have suffered enough.
The only other team to win the NL East that decade would be the 1977 Phillies; Philadelphia would miss out to Cincinnati by a single game in both 1976 and 1978, with the ‘76 race being 101 wins to 100.
The biggest surprise of all was the 1975 Cardinals, who would go all the way up from 82 wins to 89 and beat the Dodgers by a game for the NL West title. Their secret: aside from Cincinnati, the ‘75 Cards had winning records against every team in the West.
St. Louis would win the West in 1971, as well (91 wins to San Francisco’s 90); the Houston Astros would win it in ‘79.
And to think, all of that came from simply switching two teams’ divisions. I can only imagine what kind of craziness this series has in store.
“the Cardinals in the West, and the Reds in the East, which makes more geographic sense”
More than I remembered, actually – I renamed East to North, and West to South, and indeed it is a straight sort. Cincinnati was the sixth-northernmost team in the NL from 1969-1992; St. Louis was seventh.
“I thought I remembered Pete Mikkelsen as palm ball pitcher and not a knuckleballer. I have also seen references to Mikkelsen as a fork ball pitcher, too.”
You are correct, he wasn’t a knuckleballer, at least according to the Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers, which has to be understood as the most comprehensive reference we have. You’ve caught me in the act of relying too heavily upon all-too-fallible memory, and not performing due diligent research before publication.
I watched Mikkelsen pitch on TV many times, and live a couple of times, in his ‘69-‘72 Dodger tenure. His signature pitch was a heavy-sinking lollipop slowball, which you’ve correctly identified as a palm ball, and to my juvenile eye looked so weird and wobbly as to be a knuckleball. I stand corrected. He could paint corners pretty well, kind of a master of junk.
This looks like to be another fine chapter in Steve’s What-Ifs.
Steve, I know this is a Phillies-Cardinals-Mets ‘‘What If’‘, but any consideration of what the Pirates did in the mid and late 70s has to take into account where the Phillies are as a contender (or not). And if the Pirates are sitting prettier then…
…Just make sure that when Gabe Paul returns Joe Brown’s call about Doc Medich, Brown laughs off the suggestion of sending Dock Ellis, Ken Brett and Willie Randolph to the Bronx for Medich.
And since the Yankees then don’t go out looking for a quality starter to replace Medich, they don’t trade Bobby Bonds to the Angels for Ed Figueroa and Mickey Rivers. The Red Sox will then end up repeating in the AL East.
And since I understand that the Bucs were trying to acquire Bert Blyleven for 1976 and were dangling Richie Zisk to the Twins, that might be a possible trade-to-invoke scenario.
My thought would have been for the Pirates to trade Ellis, Brett and Randolph to the Mets for Koosman – arguably a better pitcher than Medich anyway. Then ship Koosman and Zisk to Minnesota for Blyleven (and use Bill Robinson in left and eventually Tony Armas). The Mets, initially unsure of Bud Harrelson’s return, plan on using Randolph at short but move Milan to third. The Pirates would also keep Craig Reynolds, who replaces Frank Taveras at short. Taveras is sent to the Yankees since George Steinbrenner is adamant that the Yankees won’t win a World Series with Fred Stanley playing shortshop. The Yankees do inquire about Ted Sizemore but the Cardinals turn down an offer of Bonds for the second baseman and Reggie Smith.
Alomar plays another full year for the Yankees at 2nd and, having picked up Willie Davis at the end of the 75 season as insurance in case Elliot Maddox injury keeps him out for 76, the Yankees lineup for 1976 looks like this:
C Munson
1B Chambliss
2B Alomar
SS Taveras
3B Nettles
LF White
CF Davis
RF Bonds
DH Piniella
Rotation: Hunter, Medich, May, Dobson, Tidrow
(That’s right; the Indians keep Oscar Gamble)
Señor Spielbergo, I have done a similar analysis of the Wild West without the Reds. Yes, the Dodgers would have cleaned up. I like that you took into account actual head-to-head play, rather than assume the realigned clubs would have had the same record in another division.
Question: did you only flip the Cards and Reds, or move the Braves and Cubs as well? As I understand it, the Cubs and Cardinals essentially lobbied together to stay in the East and the Braves had little say having just moved from Milwaukee. It’s doubtful the NL would have broken up the St Louis – Chicago rivalry. One way or the other, those two clubs would have remained in the same division. Thus, necessitating the likely move of the Braves to the East along with the Reds if you place the Cardinals and Cubs in the West.
I was surprised to see the Reds could have bested the Pirates in 1979 if both clubs were in the East. Perhaps that could that change depending on the full division makeup.
I’d give the nod to the Pirates for a different reason though. Despite the difference in their W-L records, the Mets would have been unlikely to trade Tom Seaver to a division foe in 1977. That probably would have let the Phillies keep the ‘78 title as well (and still lose to the Dodgers) and let the Pirates edge out the Reds in 1979. And if the Mets do trade Seaver to the Reds, then perhaps the other contenders have a reason to try to improve as well.