The virtual 1985-1989 New York Yankees (Part 2)
Last time, we identified a long sequence of transactions executed by the New York Yankees from late 1981 through mid-1989, each of which fell into at least one of the two following categories: (1) it was a deal of questionable merit in the first place, and/or (2) it was a deal that wouldn’t logically have been made, had its predecessors not been made.
Now we’re ready to find out how our alternative-scenario Yankees would likely have fared with those deals undone.
1982-83-84
Our version of the Bronx Bombers would be improved in these seasons. The arrival of young Willie McGee to take over as the primary center fielder, and the retention of multi-talented Jerry Mumphrey (in place of uni-talented Omar Moreno) to add further depth and flexibility in the outfield, would distinctly help.
But those would be the only changes yet manifesting themselves on the Yankee roster, and thus the improvement wouldn’t be enough to bring the Yankees any championships they didn’t actually capture. Our 1982 Yanks would remain, as their real-life counterparts, far behind the pace of the AL East-winning Milwaukee Brewers. And in both of the following seasons, our Yankees would be strong enough to finish in second place, instead of their actual third, but the division flags would remain in the hands of the Orioles (1983) and runaway Tigers (’84).
But then our pinstriped club would step forward with authority.
1985
These Yankees would dazzle opponents right from the get-go. Newly acquired leadoff man Rickey Henderson would deliver a magnificent all-around performance, while No. 2 hitter Willie Randolph was also highly reliable at getting on base, and the slashing line drives of McGee would have him moving up in the order to be a high-action third-slot hitter for the balance of the season. Henderson and McGee would combine for more than 130 stolen bases at a success rate of well over 80 percent.
And that would just be setting the table for the big boys. Don Mattingly would be sensational as the cleanup hitter, with veterans Dave Winfield and Don Baylor supporting him with ample additional power.
It would add up to a tremendous offensive force. Their 900 runs would be the most tallied by any American League team since 1950.
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B D. Mattingly* 24 159 652 119 211 48 3 35 148 56 41 .324 .371 .567 .939 156
2B W. Randolph 30 143 497 89 137 21 2 5 44 85 39 .276 .382 .356 .738 106
SS B. Meacham# 24 140 385 55 85 13 2 1 38 43 82 .221 .295 .273 .568 59
3B M. Pagliarulo* 25 124 321 46 79 14 2 16 61 38 69 .246 .332 .452 .783 115
RF D. Winfield 33 155 633 100 174 34 6 26 121 52 96 .275 .328 .471 .799 118
CF W. McGee# 26 152 612 114 212 30 14 15 89 38 88 .346 .386 .515 .900 147
LF R. Henderson 26 143 547 149 172 28 5 24 75 99 65 .314 .419 .516 .934 157
C B. Wynegar# 29 102 309 31 69 15 0 5 35 64 43 .223 .356 .320 .676 89
DH D. Baylor 36 142 477 73 110 24 1 23 93 52 90 .231 .330 .430 .760 109
C R. Hassey* 32 92 267 31 79 16 1 13 47 28 21 .296 .369 .509 .878 140
3B T. Harrah 36 63 132 21 34 5 0 3 18 34 23 .258 .413 .364 .776 118
OF J. Mumphrey# 32 65 148 18 37 7 1 4 21 11 20 .250 .305 .392 .697 92
LF-RF K. Griffey* 35 64 146 18 37 8 1 3 24 13 18 .253 .321 .384 .705 95
INF A. Robertson 27 50 125 19 41 5 0 2 19 6 24 .328 .358 .416 .774 114
INF D. Berra 28 48 109 9 25 5 1 1 10 7 20 .229 .276 .321 .597 65
Others 106 8 20 2 2 1 8 4 16 .189 .219 .274 .493 36
Total 5466 900 1522 275 41 177 851 630 755 .278 .358 .441 .799 120
* Bats left
# Bats both
Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
R. Guidry* 34 34 33 11 23 5 0 259 243 104 94 28 42 143 3.27 123
P. Niekro 46 33 33 7 17 11 0 220 203 110 100 29 120 149 4.09 99
J. Cowley 26 30 26 1 13 5 0 160 132 75 70 29 85 97 3.95 102
E. Whitson 30 30 30 2 11 7 0 159 201 100 86 19 43 89 4.88 83
D. Rasmussen* 26 29 23 2 4 7 0 147 148 86 69 11 71 93 4.22 95
D. Righetti* 26 74 0 0 13 6 29 107 96 36 33 5 45 92 2.78 146
B. Shirley* 31 44 9 2 5 5 2 98 93 31 29 5 23 50 2.66 151
T. Burke 26 62 0 0 9 1 6 96 70 29 29 8 40 68 2.72 148
B. Fisher 23 44 0 0 3 3 12 78 60 24 19 3 23 70 2.19 184
R. Bordi 26 41 3 0 5 5 2 78 74 32 27 4 23 52 3.12 129
Others 4 0 2 1 1 38 41 27 26 9 15 21 6.16 65
Total 161 25 105 56 52 1440 1361 654 582 150 530 924 3.64 111
* Throws left
The pitching wouldn’t quite match the standard of the hitting, but it would be outstanding in its own right. Behind marvelous ace Ron Guidry, the starting staff would be only so-so, but the bullpen, with rookie Tim Burke settling in behind superb fireman Dave Righetti, would be a stupendous five-deep unit.
The bottom line is that there would be a whole lot of ways this ball club could beat you, and it would do so 105 times in the regular season, waltzing with ease to the division title. In fact the team would rack up the best record of any Yankee edition since the legendary Mantle & Maris Boys of 1961. No franchise has a higher historical standard than the Yankees, but nonetheless the ’85 club would be recognized as one of the finest ever to grace Yankee Stadium.
1986
This year the Yankees would encounter some setbacks. Mattingly was as great as ever, but Henderson wasn’t getting on base at his normal rate, and McGee suffered a huge letdown season. Mumphrey and rookie Dan Pasqua would provide excellent support off the bench, but overall the offense was merely among the best in the league, and not the dominant juggernaut of the previous year.
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B D. Mattingly* 25 162 677 116 238 53 2 31 116 53 35 .352 .394 .573 .967 161
2B W. Randolph 31 141 492 76 136 15 2 5 50 94 49 .276 .393 .346 .738 105
SS W. Tolleson# 30 60 215 21 61 9 2 0 14 14 33 .284 .332 .344 .676 86
3B M. Pagliarulo* 26 134 422 60 104 19 3 27 67 48 93 .246 .328 .498 .825 122
RF D. Winfield 34 141 528 81 138 29 5 23 99 73 98 .261 .354 .466 .820 123
CF W. McGee# 27 124 497 63 125 22 5 9 49 39 84 .252 .310 .370 .680 86
LF-CF R. Henderson 27 153 608 128 160 31 5 28 74 89 81 .263 .358 .469 .827 125
C B. Wynegar# 30 61 194 18 40 4 1 7 29 30 21 .206 .310 .345 .655 79
DH M. Easler* 35 117 327 41 99 17 1 9 54 33 58 .303 .368 .443 .811 121
OF J. Mumphrey# 33 100 278 33 81 9 2 5 29 24 42 .291 .350 .392 .742 103
DH-LF D. Pasqua* 24 92 252 40 74 15 0 14 43 42 70 .294 .400 .520 .920 150
C R. Hassey* 33 64 191 23 57 14 0 6 29 24 16 .298 .381 .466 .847 131
SS B. Meacham# 25 56 161 18 36 7 1 0 10 17 39 .224 .309 .280 .589 63
C J. Skinner 25 54 166 6 43 4 0 1 17 7 40 .259 .287 .301 .589 62
SS M. Fischlin 30 71 102 8 21 2 0 0 3 8 29 .206 .261 .225 .487 35
RF-LF K. Griffey* 36 39 99 16 28 3 0 4 13 7 12 .283 .342 .434 .777 111
3B T. Harrah 37 34 69 10 14 5 1 1 9 16 12 .203 .352 .348 .700 93
OF C. Washington* 31 36 68 7 15 2 0 3 8 3 18 .221 .264 .382 .646 75
DH R. Kittle 28 24 64 6 15 2 0 3 10 6 18 .234 .311 .406 .717 95
Others 175 15 28 6 0 1 11 12 31 .160 .212 .211 .424 17
Total 5585 786 1513 268 30 177 734 639 879 .271 .349 .425 .773 111
* Bats left
# Bats both
Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
D. Rasmussen* 27 31 31 3 17 6 0 202 160 91 87 28 74 131 3.88 106
R. Guidry* 35 30 30 5 8 12 0 192 202 94 85 28 38 140 3.98 103
J. Deshaies* 26 26 26 1 11 6 0 144 134 65 59 19 63 123 3.69 111
D. Drabek 23 27 21 0 6 8 0 132 126 64 60 13 50 76 4.10 100
B. Tewksbury 25 23 20 2 8 5 0 130 144 58 48 8 31 49 3.31 124
T. John* 43 13 10 1 5 3 0 71 73 27 23 8 15 28 2.93 141
D. Righetti* 27 74 0 0 8 8 46 107 88 31 29 4 35 83 2.45 168
T. Burke 27 68 2 0 9 7 6 101 108 40 36 8 48 80 3.21 128
B. Fisher 24 34 9 0 7 5 2 87 100 58 50 14 33 59 5.17 79
R. Bordi 27 47 1 0 4 3 2 80 75 39 36 9 31 63 4.05 101
B. Shirley* 32 20 3 0 0 2 2 53 54 30 30 7 20 32 5.09 80
T. Stoddard 33 24 0 0 3 1 0 49 41 23 21 6 23 34 3.83 108
E. Whitson 31 14 4 0 4 3 0 37 54 37 31 5 23 27 7.54 55
Others 5 1 2 1 0 60 69 30 26 12 18 28 3.90 105
Total 162 13 92 70 58 1445 1428 687 621 169 502 953 3.87 106
* Throws left
At age 35 Guidry was unable to sustain his bellwether status, and the starting rotation would become a bit of a scramble. Fortunately, journeyman Dennis Rasmussen and rookies Jim Deshaies, Doug Drabek and Bob Tewksbury would all step up and provide solid service. In the bullpen, the depth of of 1985 was no longer in evidence, as Righetti and Burke were still strong, but the support behind them would be spotty.
But it would be a measure of the quality of this roster that even though it sprung its share of leaks, the magnitude of its stars and the diversity of its supporting cast ensured that this was still a very good team. They would engage in a season-long battle with their arch-rival Boston Red Sox for the division flag.
In actuality, those Red Sox outperformed their Pythagorean projection by five games to emerge with 95 wins. If we assume they didn’t, then our Yankees would repeat as champs. That said, a five-game variance from Pythag isn’t all that unusual. We can err on the side of conservatism and say that the Red Sox would still win this division race (to prevail in a wild League Championship Series over the Angels, and be ill-fated in their confrontation with the Mets in the World Series), but if so, it wouldn’t be as easy for them to get there as it was. If these Yankees died, they would die very hard.
1987
A serious problem would loom this season, as lineup catalyst Henderson would miss nearly half the year with a hamstring injury. But these Yankees would be blessed with a terrific fill-in performance from Mumphrey. This team’s depth would be further demonstrated when Pasqua slumped and would be sent back to the minors, and his replacement, rookie Fred McGriff, would provide exceptional power in a utility role.
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B D. Mattingly* 26 141 569 100 186 38 2 30 119 51 38 .327 .378 .559 .937 146
2B W. Randolph 32 120 449 99 137 24 2 7 67 82 25 .305 .411 .414 .825 121
SS W. Tolleson# 31 121 349 43 77 4 0 1 23 43 72 .221 .306 .241 .547 49
3B M. Pagliarulo* 27 150 522 72 122 26 3 32 94 53 111 .234 .305 .479 .784 105
RF D. Winfield 35 146 535 79 148 21 1 26 94 72 89 .277 .363 .465 .829 119
CF W. McGee# 28 153 620 91 171 37 8 14 90 26 93 .276 .310 .429 .739 94
LF R. Henderson 28 95 358 81 104 17 3 17 39 80 52 .291 .423 .497 .920 145
C R. Cerone 33 113 284 29 69 12 1 4 24 30 46 .243 .320 .335 .654 75
DH R. Kittle 29 59 159 21 44 5 0 12 30 10 36 .277 .318 .535 .853 122
OF J. Mumphrey# 34 118 309 52 100 17 2 14 51 36 48 .324 .394 .528 .921 143
SS-2B B. Meacham# 26 77 203 28 55 11 1 5 21 19 33 .271 .349 .409 .758 102
OF C. Washington* 32 82 208 28 57 11 0 6 30 17 36 .274 .329 .413 .742 97
DH-1B F. McGriff* 23 64 177 30 44 10 0 12 34 36 62 .249 .379 .508 .887 134
DH-LF D. Pasqua* 25 60 169 23 34 3 0 8 24 32 61 .201 .333 .361 .694 86
C J. Skinner 26 64 139 9 19 4 0 3 14 8 46 .137 .187 .230 .417 11
C P. Lombardi 24 50 113 12 25 5 0 2 13 16 20 .221 .331 .319 .649 75
Others 336 36 83 12 1 5 25 23 61 .247 .295 .333 .628 67
Total 5499 833 1475 257 24 198 792 634 929 .268 .347 .432 .778 106
* Bats left
# Bats both
Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
T. John* 44 33 33 3 14 7 0 188 212 95 84 12 47 63 4.02 110
D. Drabek 24 37 24 1 11 12 0 176 165 86 76 22 50 122 3.89 114
B. Fisher 25 37 22 5 10 9 0 167 168 94 88 26 68 106 4.74 94
C. Hudson 28 35 16 6 11 7 0 155 137 63 62 19 57 100 3.61 123
D. Rasmussen* 28 33 22 2 9 7 0 146 140 75 74 29 57 92 4.56 97
D. Deshaies* 27 36 17 1 10 6 0 137 134 75 72 19 56 102 4.73 94
R. Guidry* 36 26 15 2 6 8 0 118 108 48 46 13 39 98 3.51 127
B. Gullickson 28 8 8 1 4 2 0 48 46 29 26 7 11 28 4.88 91
D. Righetti* 28 60 0 0 8 6 30 95 95 45 37 9 44 77 3.51 127
T. Burke 28 55 0 0 7 0 17 91 66 19 13 3 18 57 1.29 345
T. Stoddard 34 51 0 0 4 2 4 84 74 34 32 12 27 74 3.43 130
Others 5 0 1 1 0 44 47 31 30 6 27 28 6.14 72
Total 162 21 95 67 51 1449 1392 694 640 177 501 947 3.98 112
* Throws left
Once again the pitching staff lacked an ace, but presented ample depth. Burke’s tremendous performance would highlight a first-rate bullpen.
All in all it would be another well-rounded, excellent ball club. That year’s actual American League East featured a memorable down-to-the-wire race between Detroit and Toronto, and the Tigers winning it with a final-weekend showdown series sweep. Given that in our scenario the Blue Jays are without the significant contribution of McGriff, we can assume it would instead be our Yankees battling the Tigers for the title.
The actual Tigers finished 98-64, two games over their Pythagorean record of 96-66. Our Yankees would achieve a Pythag mark of 95-67, as indicated above. If we allow that to guide us, it would be Detroit by an eyelash. On the other hand, the actual Yankees outpaced their Pythag by five wins (89-73 against 84-78), so if we assume that these Yankees might have deviated from the model in a similar manner, then we could conclude that the 1987 division pennant would be hoisted above Yankee Stadium. The one thing we can say with certainty is that our Yankees would be engaged in a mightily close and exciting race for that flag.
1988
At the age of 33, Randolph suffered a serious down year. Third baseman Mike Pagliarulo also slumped, and the veteran Mumphrey suddenly and emphatically hit the proverbial wall. Even Mattingly, while still excellent, saw his production drop somewhat.
But these offensive problems were offset by several positives. Henderson was generally healthy. Winfield, at 36, delivered one of the best seasons of his long career. Free agent acquisition Jack Clark injected serious power and on-base production, while the remarkable young slugger McGriff would muscle his way into the lineup wherever he could.
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B D. Mattingly* 27 144 599 94 186 37 0 18 91 41 29 .311 .353 .462 .816 128
2B W. Randolph 33 110 404 43 93 20 1 2 35 55 39 .230 .322 .300 .621 77
SS R. Santana 30 148 480 50 115 12 1 4 39 33 61 .240 .289 .294 .583 65
3B M. Pagliarulo* 28 125 444 46 96 20 1 15 68 37 104 .216 .276 .367 .643 80
RF D. Winfield 36 149 559 96 180 37 2 25 110 69 88 .322 .398 .530 .927 159
CF W. McGee# 29 137 506 70 147 22 5 3 53 31 76 .291 .333 .372 .704 99
LF-CF R. Henderson 29 140 554 119 169 30 2 6 52 82 54 .305 .394 .399 .793 124
C D. Slaught 29 97 322 33 91 25 1 9 45 24 54 .283 .334 .450 .785 119
DH J. Clark 32 150 496 81 120 14 0 27 96 113 141 .242 .381 .433 .815 130
LF-1B F. McGriff* 24 103 268 46 73 17 2 17 49 38 77 .272 .369 .541 .910 153
C J. Skinner 27 88 251 23 57 15 0 4 23 14 72 .227 .267 .335 .602 69
OF C. Washington* 33 63 152 21 44 7 1 3 22 7 27 .289 .327 .408 .735 106
3B L. Aguayo 29 50 140 12 35 4 0 3 8 7 33 .250 .289 .343 .631 77
MI B. Meacham# 27 47 115 18 25 9 0 0 7 14 22 .217 .308 .296 .604 71
2B R. Velarde 25 48 115 18 20 6 0 5 12 8 24 .174 .240 .357 .597 66
LF J. Mumphrey# 35 32 66 4 11 2 0 0 8 8 15 .167 .257 .197 .454 30
Others 145 17 33 5 0 2 13 15 36 .228 .301 .303 .605 71
Total 5616 791 1495 282 16 143 731 596 952 .266 .340 .399 .739 108
* Bats left
# Bats both
Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
D. Drabek 25 33 32 3 15 7 0 219 214 98 89 24 55 122 3.66 110
J. Deshaies* 28 31 31 3 12 13 0 207 184 92 83 25 77 122 3.61 111
T. John* 45 35 32 0 9 8 0 176 221 96 88 11 46 81 4.49 89
J. Candelaria* 34 39 17 4 14 6 1 157 147 67 57 17 23 124 3.27 123
B. Fisher 26 33 11 0 8 8 1 125 138 70 67 13 53 56 4.82 83
R. Dotson 29 25 19 3 8 6 0 114 117 67 61 17 48 51 4.82 83
R. Guidry* 37 12 10 0 2 3 0 56 57 28 26 7 15 32 4.18 96
C. Hudson 29 44 4 0 7 5 2 106 88 49 49 7 38 63 4.16 96
D. Righetti* 29 60 0 0 5 4 25 87 86 35 34 5 37 70 3.52 114
T. Burke 29 61 0 0 4 4 17 82 90 39 34 8 27 40 3.73 107
L. Guetterman* 29 24 0 0 1 2 0 41 47 20 20 2 14 16 4.39 91
Others 6 0 5 6 2 90 88 51 46 11 45 64 4.60 87
Total 162 13 90 72 48 1460 1477 712 654 147 478 841 4.03 99
* Throws left
The pitching would avert disaster through the emergence of both Drabek and Deshaies as rotation anchors. Along with a surprisingly strong performance from veteran John Candelaria in a swingman role, they would render what might have been a weak staff into a league-average unit.
The resulting ball club would be far from the best the Yankees had shown, but still quite a good one. And in this year’s AL East, it might well have been good enough to win, as in actuality it was a remarkably tightly bunched division with five teams between 85 and 89 wins, and none with as many as 90.
We might assume that the actual champions, the Red Sox, would also emerge on top in our scenario, since their 89 victories were four short of their 93-69 Pythagorean mark. But if we allowed the BoSox to benefit from their positive Pythag deviation back in 1986, it’s only fair to require them to suffer the consequences of this season’s negative variance. If that’s the case, then it’s our Yankees winning this dogfight.
1989
The major challenge this year was a doozy: Winfield’s season-long absence due to a bad back. Nearly as problematic would be an injury-plagued season for McGee, limiting him to 58 games of sub-par performance. But again, the depth of this roster would come to the rescue, as McGriff would step in and take over Winfield’s job in right field (where his assuredly poor defense would be more than balanced by his terrific offense, leading the league in home runs, OPS and OPS+), and rookie Roberto Kelly would more than ably fill in for McGee in center.
Free agent Steve Sax was a superb replacement for Randolph at second base. With Henderson, Mattingly and Clark continuing to excel, the offense would be the best in the league.
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B D. Mattingly* 28 158 631 94 191 37 2 23 108 51 30 .303 .351 .477 .828 133
2B S. Sax 29 158 651 93 205 26 3 5 67 52 44 .315 .364 .387 .751 113
SS A. Espinoza 27 146 503 48 142 23 1 0 43 14 60 .282 .301 .332 .633 80
3B M. Pagliarulo* 29 74 223 19 44 10 0 4 17 19 43 .197 .266 .296 .562 60
RF-DH F. McGriff* 25 161 523 85 140 26 3 37 102 111 128 .268 .401 .541 .942 165
CF-RF R. Kelly 24 91 265 39 78 11 2 5 33 24 64 .294 .356 .408 .763 116
LF R. Henderson 30 150 541 115 150 26 3 12 58 126 68 .277 .417 .403 .820 134
C D. Slaught 30 117 350 32 88 21 3 5 40 30 57 .251 .315 .371 .687 94
DH J. Clark 33 142 455 89 108 19 1 27 102 134 148 .237 .413 .462 .875 148
C B. Geren 27 65 205 23 59 5 1 9 28 12 44 .288 .329 .454 .782 120
CF W. McGee# 30 58 199 23 46 10 2 3 19 10 34 .231 .274 .347 .620 75
3B T. Brookens 35 66 168 14 38 6 0 4 15 11 27 .226 .272 .333 .606 71
INF W. Tolleson# 33 80 140 16 23 5 2 1 10 16 23 .164 .255 .250 .505 44
RF-LF M. Hall* 28 57 120 16 30 3 0 5 20 6 14 .250 .295 .400 .695 96
3B R. Velarde 26 33 100 13 34 4 2 2 12 7 14 .340 .389 .480 .869 146
Others 275 27 64 8 0 5 28 20 66 .233 .287 .316 .604 71
Total 5349 746 1440 240 25 147 702 643 864 .269 .350 .406 .755 114
* Bats left
# Bats both
Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
D. Drabek 26 35 34 8 15 11 0 244 230 94 86 24 74 113 3.17 121
J. Deshaies* 29 34 34 6 16 9 0 226 194 91 83 18 84 143 3.31 116
A. Hawkins 29 34 34 5 16 14 0 208 238 127 111 23 76 98 4.80 81
C. Parker 26 22 17 2 5 5 0 120 123 53 49 12 31 53 3.68 105
C. Cary* 29 18 7 1 3 3 0 75 58 32 27 10 23 61 3.26 119
D. LaPoint* 29 10 10 0 4 4 0 61 67 36 36 9 29 30 5.31 72
W. Terrell 31 9 9 1 4 3 0 55 68 35 32 6 18 20 5.24 74
J. Candelaria* 35 10 6 1 3 3 0 49 49 28 28 8 12 37 5.14 76
L. Guetterman* 30 63 0 0 6 3 6 93 86 27 24 5 23 47 2.32 166
T. Burke 30 68 0 0 9 3 22 85 72 26 26 7 23 53 2.75 140
D. Righetti* 30 55 0 0 2 6 19 69 73 32 23 3 26 51 3.00 129
D. Mohorcic 33 26 0 0 2 1 1 46 52 33 26 6 14 19 5.09 76
Others 11 1 4 8 2 91 112 69 64 10 47 42 6.33 61
Total 162 25 89 73 50 1422 1422 683 615 141 480 767 3.89 99
* Throws left
That would be fortunate, because the pitching was once again uneven. Drabek and Deshaies were even better than in the previous year, but the rotation behind them was kind of a mess. However, the bullpen would be excellent, with journeyman Lee Guetterman coming out of nowhere to join Burke and Righetti.
It would be another good-but-not-great Yankee team. But once again the American League East Division lacked a standout, as this time the Blue Jays captured the title with just 89 wins. Given that their best player was McGriff, and now he’s ours, we can say with confidence that in our scenario it would be the Yankees winning the ’89 AL East.
Thus over the five-season span from 1985 through ’89, our version of the Yankees would claim two division championships for certain (’85 and ’89), with each of the other three being too close to call. At worst they’d have two flags and three second-place finishes, with a not-implausible possibility of five straight titles.
Into the 1990s
In real life the 1989 Yankees were a pretty bad team (74-87, fifth place), and that was just the first of four consecutive losing years. Eventually in the mid-1990s, the Yankees would come up with the exceptionally talented home-grown core (Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte) that would serve as the foundation of the franchise’s tremendous run that’s essentially still going.
It’s doubtful that our version would sail through the troublesome 1990-92 period the same breezy way they handled 1985-89. But still, our version would include significant assets the real team didn’t—most obviously The Crime Dog—and moreover don’t forget that our version didn’t trade away Jay Buhner or Al Leiter either. At the very least, our Yankees would be poised to remain middle-of-the-pack competitive through the early years of the 1990s.
And certainly, in our scenario the late 1980s wouldn’t be remembered as one of the rare down cycles of this most fortune-kissed franchise, but would stand as yet another reason to loathe the Damn Yankees.
But how would these finishes have effected their drafting jeter? Petitte and Posada both went far enough back in the 90 draft that we can guess that a change in the standings wouldn’t have kept the Yanks from picking them. But, would Jeter still have been available late in the first round? And how would that effect things going forward?
Might be an interesting thought experiment for another series? What would have happened IF..so and so wasn’t part of that team?
1985: If the pen is dominant and rotation less than average for a contender and one of your relievers, even your closer, is a former successful starter…Righetti just goes into the rotation like Smoltz, Burke gets late inning duties, and Whitson is mopup/swingman.
1989: If McGriff is as bad an OF as another Big Mac (McCovey…although once I saw McGwire in RF in a preseason game) then he plays 1B, Clark plays RF, and Mattingly rests his back at DH.
As a Yankee fan since 1971, I LOE this kind of stuff…but then the what ifs don’t stop. As aleady mentioned they don’t get Jeter. Maybe their late 80s success allows them not to make the Oneil/Key/Boggs moves. Maybe they don’t feel the need to trade for Tino/Nelson and they keep Mattingly around. So maybe they trade the 1996-2000 success for 1985-1989 success.
And theoretically, one can probably create one of these for every team and make everybody a winner. (Except the Royals. They stink.)
I still miss the years when the Yankees missed the playoffs. It was a wonderful time for the sport of baseball. The years discussed, are the longest stretch of futility for the Bronx bummers, since 1921, and nothing made me happier, except when the Lakers lost!
Very cool.
Drafts tend to be crapshoots, so it is really hard to predict what would have happened to Jeter in the draft. He went as the #6 overall pick in 1992, but that was after Phil Nevin, Paul Shuey, B.J. Wallace, Jeffrey Hammonds, and Chad Mottola, all of which combined were less valuable than Jeter by himself, so you never know how other teams would have valued him. If anyone has any information about other teams interest in him at the time, I’d love to see it.
Of course, if they do not get Jeter, who do they take? It is possible they could have grabbed someone like Jason Kendell (#23), Johnny Damon (#35), Todd Helton (#55), or Jason Giambi (#58), but more likely they would have gotten not much of anything. There are a few guys in the first couple of rounds that had decent careers – Nevin, Shannon Stewart, Charles Johnson, Rick Helling, Jon Lieber, Jose Vidro – but it is mostly career minor leaguers, marginal talents, and role players. I’m not sure you could make an all-star team out of this draft, at least from the first 10 rounds, and win anything. There are entire rounds with almost nothing – the 8th round had only 3 major leaguers, none of consequence.
“And theoretically, one can probably create one of these for every team and make everybody a winner. (Except the Royals. They stink.)”
No, you really can’t. The fact is that the great majority of player transactions are either (a) pretty fair in outcome, in that what’s bought is roughly equal to what’s spent in both directions, and/or (b) (and this is most typical) of very little lasting consequence.
I’ve been thoroughly researching trades for quite a few years now, and I’m quite confident in concluding that there are typically only about one or two franchises per decade in which you can come up with a reasonably plausible scenario such as those presented in this series.
Loved it, Steve. I was really into these teams. It killed me when they traded Drabek and Tewksbury.
I think if you play McGriff in 1988 full time, you can put that Jack Clark money to some better use.
Per the part 1 thread, would reversing the Roy Smalley trade make a significant difference? The result would be losing Drabek but keeping Greg Gagne as the starting shortstop.
“Per the part 1 thread, would reversing the Roy Smalley trade make a significant difference? The result would be losing Drabek but keeping Greg Gagne as the starting shortstop.”
This question was discussed in last week’s comments … my take on it is that (a) Drabek was a distinctly more impactful player than Gagne, and (b) in any case, the Smalley acquisition was a sensible and fair deal for the Yankees to make in the first place.
Also, in 1985, we might have seen a subway series. The Mets finished in second to the Cardinals, who now don’t have McGee in center for his best season.
Excellent call. There’s no way the Cardinals win it in ‘85 without McGee.
Just one problem with your writing off the Blue Jays in the 1987 and 1989 pennant races because McGriff never went there. Toronto also had another outstanding young first baseman, who they didn’t have room for because of McGriff. If they didn’t have McGriff, they simply would have played Cecil Fielder there, with enormous implications for Fielder’s career. Based on his performance in limited playing time from 1985-88, you have to conclude he was able to play in the majors throughout that time. He never would have had to play in Japan in ’89, and he never would have played for the Tigers.
The Blue Jays would have lost little or nothing during those years sans McGriff, due to the presence of a very valuable asset that they had no way of using.