Comparing Curtis Granderson
After his 41st home run on Monday afternoon in a 6-4 win over Minnesota, Yankees slugger Curtis Granderson has seemingly furthered his case for the American League MVP award. However, sabermetricians and the stats of past prolific Yankees home run hitters over the 21st century would show that Granderson is not worthy of the award.
Granderson, with his 7.0 WAR, doesn’t even have the best WAR on his own team—CC Sabathia bests him with a 7.1—and Granderson is well behind Jacoby Ellsbury’s 8.5 and Jose Bautista’s 8.2. Even Dustin Pedroia edges Granderson with his 7.3, and 24-game winner Justin Verlander matches his former Detroit teammate with his 7.0 WAR.
AL MVP candidates PA Slash Line HR RBI R WAR SB Curtis Granderson, OF, NYY 659 .268/.371/.568 41 115 133 7.0 24 Jose Bautista, 3B/OF, TOR 612 .304/.448/.623 42 100 102 8.2 8 Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, BOS 681 .319/.376/.539 27 96 111 8.5 37 Dustin Pedroia, 2B, BOS 684 .297/.380/.463 20 83 96 7.3 26
Granderson’s team has fared better than the other candidates’, which still may be a factor in the minds of some of the voters, but many of his numbers don’t stack up compared with other MVP candidates and previous Yankees home run hitters.
PA Slash Line HR RBI R WAR SB Awards C. Granderson, 2011 659 .268/.371/.568 41 115 133 7.0 24 ?? Alex Rodriguez, 2007 708 .314/.422/.645 54 156 143 9.8 24 MVP (1), SS Alex Rodriguez, 2005 715 .321/.421/.610 48 130 124 9.1 21 MVP (1), SS Jason Giambi, 2003 690 .250/.412/.527 41 107 97 5.0 2 MVP (13) Jason Giambi, 2002 689 .314/.435/.598 41 122 120 7.0 2 MVP (5), SS
When Rodriguez won the MVP in 2007 and 2005, his numbers were better than Granderson’s across the board except Granderson’s runs, which lead the AL. That total is the best stat he has going for him besides the home runs. Giambi did not play the field in 43 percent of his games in 2002 and 2003, which impacted his WAR numbers and MVP chances.
The average WAR of the last five AL MVPs is 7.4, and that number is weighed down by Justin Morneau’s 4.0 WAR in 2006 (Derek Jeter and David Ortiz each had a 6.3 and finished second and third, respectively). Pedroia’s 6.8 in 2008 was oddly the best WAR among the top five vote-getters. But I digress…
PA Slash Line HR RBI R WAR SB Josh Hamilton, 2010 571 .359/.411/.633 32 100 95 8.7 8 Joe Mauer, 2009 606 .365/.444/.587 28 96 94 7.9 4 Dustin Pedroia, 2008 726 .326/.376/.493 17 83 118 6.8 20 Alex Rodriguez, 2007 708 .314/.422/.645 54 156 143 9.8 24 Justin Morneau, 2006 661 .321/.375/.559 34 130 97 4.0 3
You could make a decent case that Granderson should win the MVP this season (and some people certainly could speculate that performance-enhancing drugs has to do with past inflated WAR numbers), but he would certainly be a below-average MVP candidate from a historical and, in my view, a current perspective.
I don’t know that Granderson should be the MVP but I do think that his WAR undervalues how good he’s b een this year. Granderson’s UZR is -6 but most observers would say he’s a slightly above average CFer. Statistically, he’s likely the victim of Gardner stealing defensive opportunities from him. I’m not sure that a more accurate UZR would put him above Bautista or Ellsbury in WAR but I think it would go a long way to narrow the gap. He’s definitely top 3 to me and I don’t think he’s an unreasonable choice.
If you use bWAR instead of fWAR (which is a probably more in line with what the voters like, at least in the pitching component), it’s Bautista and Verlander miles ahead of everyone else.
Let me add to what Jeff said…
Any system that rates CC Sabathia ahead of – or even tied with – Justin Verlander for WAR is not a system I would use to evaluate ballplayers.
bg,
This isn’t going to be terribly helpful, but some Yankees writer recently went over Granderson’s worst defensive plays this season. While his true talent might very well be in the slightly above average range, he empirically had a rough year in the field.
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Granderson is going to find it hard to win with that batting average.
Granderson may not be deserving of MVP, but showing that his rate stats are lower then A-Rod half a decade ago isn’t saying a whole lot. Different offensive environment, and you’re comparing to one of the best players of all time in his prime.