Two True Outcomes
A concept we’re all familiar with is the “Three True Outcomes”: the base on balls, the strikeout, and the home run. These are the plays that are genuine mano-a-mano duels between batter and pitcher only, with no participation by a fielder. Batters who are above average in accumulating walks, strikeouts, and home runs are Three True Outcomes heroes.
That’s all well and good, I suppose. But come on. Let’s not be ashamed to admit the truth: Walks are for wimps. What’s really macho are the Two True Outcomes: the home run and the strikeout.
That’s it, baby. No wishy-washy middle ground here. All or nuthin’. Your Two True Outcomes heroes don’t mess around with such passiveness as taking pitches. These guys just go for it.
So let’s give a full, no half-measures salute to the Titans of Two True Outcomes.
2TOQ
I devised a simple little formula for measuring a batter’s devotion to the Two True Outcomes:
((Home Runs/Hits) + (Strikeouts/At-Bats)) – (Walks/At-Bats)
Lotsa taters with a lousy batting average = Good. Lotsa whiffs = Good. Lotsa surrender monkey walks = Bad. I call the stat Two True Outcomes Quotient, or 2TOQ.
Long Careers
Here are the 2TOQ immortals, with careers of at least 4,000 plate appearances:
Player Years PA AB H HR BB SO BA HR/H SO/AB BB/AB 2TOQ Rob Deer 1984-1996 4456 3881 853 230 575 1409 .220 .270 .363 .148 .485 Dave Kingman 1971-1986 7285 6677 1575 442 608 1816 .236 .281 .272 .091 .462 Pete Incaviglia 1986-1998 4593 4233 1033 206 360 1277 .244 .199 .302 .085 .416 Sammy Sosa 1989-2004 8877 8021 2220 574 856 2110 .277 .259 .263 .107 .415 Mark McGwire 1986-2001 7504 6187 1626 583 1317 1596 .263 .359 .258 .213 .404 Dean Palmer 1989-2003 5404 4902 1229 275 502 1332 .251 .224 .272 .102 .393 Jose Canseco 1985-2001 7963 7057 1877 462 906 1942 .266 .246 .275 .128 .393 Gorman Thomas 1973-1986 5374 4677 1051 268 697 1339 .225 .255 .286 .149 .392 Dick Stuart 1958-1969 4298 3997 1055 228 301 957 .264 .216 .239 .075 .380 Tony Armas 1976-1989 5424 5164 1302 251 260 1201 .252 .193 .233 .050 .375 Todd Hundley 1990-2003 4305 3769 883 202 453 988 .234 .229 .262 .120 .371 Jose Hernandez 1991-2004 4590 4232 1072 159 358 1291 .253 .148 .305 .085 .369 Jay Buhner 1987-2001 5805 5013 1273 310 792 1406 .254 .244 .280 .158 .366 Cecil Fielder 1985-1998 5850 5157 1313 319 693 1316 .255 .243 .255 .134 .364 Greg Vaughn 1989-2003 6968 6103 1475 355 865 1513 .242 .241 .248 .142 .347 A. Galarraga 1985-2004 8679 8096 2333 399 583 2003 .288 .171 .247 .072 .346 Reggie Jackson 1967-1987 11239 9864 2584 563 1375 2597 .262 .218 .263 .139 .342 Willie Stargell 1962-1982 8864 7927 2232 475 937 1936 .282 .213 .244 .118 .339 D. Strawberry 1983-1999 6234 5418 1401 335 816 1352 .259 .239 .250 .151 .338 Matt Williams 1987-2003 7595 7000 1878 378 469 1363 .268 .201 .195 .067 .329 Frank Howard 1958-1973 7270 6488 1774 382 782 1460 .273 .215 .225 .121 .320 Wally Post 1949-1964 4338 4007 1064 210 331 813 .266 .197 .203 .083 .318 Lee May 1965-1982 8219 7609 2031 354 487 1570 .267 .174 .206 .064 .317 Charles Johnson 1994-2004 4330 3790 931 167 466 986 .246 .179 .260 .123 .317 Gus Zernial 1949-1959 4514 4131 1093 237 383 755 .265 .217 .183 .093 .307
Deer walked a fair amount, of course, but he was just so extreme in the HR, BA, and SO categories that we can’t hold it against him too much. And as for Mr. Kingman, all you can say is, wow. Rate stats like that in nearly 7,500 plate appearances. That, my friend, is 2TO awesometicity.
Short Careers
Here are some demigods, with fewer than 4,000 plate appearances:
Player Years PA AB H HR BB SO BA HR/H SO/AB BB/AB 2TOQ Russ Branyan 1998-2004 1423 1262 288 81 161 517 .228 .281 .410 .128 .563 Jim Fuller 1973-1977 341 315 61 11 19 130 .194 .180 .413 .060 .533 Melvin Nieves 1992-1998 1364 1228 284 63 136 483 .231 .222 .393 .111 .504 Bo Jackson 1986-1994 2593 2393 598 141 200 841 .250 .236 .351 .084 .504 Billy Ashley 1992-1998 681 618 144 28 63 236 .233 .194 .382 .102 .474 Ron Kittle 1982-1991 2944 2708 648 176 236 744 .239 .272 .275 .087 .459 Dave Nicholson 1960-1967 1638 1419 301 61 219 573 .212 .203 .404 .154 .452 Steve Balboni 1981-1993 3393 3120 714 181 273 856 .229 .254 .274 .088 .440 Bobby Estalella 1996-2004 1056 904 195 48 130 290 .216 .246 .321 .144 .423 Adam Dunn 2001-2004 2076 1728 430 118 348 565 .249 .274 .327 .201 .400 Billy Bryan 1961-1968 1070 968 209 41 91 283 .216 .196 .292 .094 .395 Richie Sexson 1997-2004 3406 3065 832 200 341 806 .271 .240 .263 .111 .392 Ruben Rivera 1995-2003 1771 1586 343 64 185 510 .216 .187 .322 .117 .392 Henry Rodriguez 1992-2002 3307 3031 784 160 276 803 .259 .204 .265 .091 .378 Ryan Thompson 1992-2002 1347 1257 305 52 90 347 .243 .170 .276 .072 .375 Cory Snyder 1986-1994 3882 3656 902 149 226 992 .247 .165 .271 .062 .375 Ron Karkovice 1986-1997 2948 2597 574 96 233 749 .221 .167 .288 .090 .366 Gary Alexander 1975-1981 1430 1276 293 55 154 381 .230 .188 .299 .121 .366 Mark Parent 1986-1998 1428 1303 279 53 98 319 .214 .190 .245 .075 .360 Nate Colbert 1966-1976 3805 3422 833 173 383 902 .243 .208 .264 .112 .359 Tim Laudner 1981-1989 2268 2038 458 77 190 553 .225 .168 .271 .093 .346 Pat Burrell 2000-2004 2875 2503 634 127 372 726 .253 .200 .290 .149 .342 Jim Presley 1984-1991 3818 3546 875 135 210 859 .247 .154 .242 .059 .337 Pat Seerey 1943-1949 2074 1815 406 86 259 485 .224 .212 .267 .143 .336 Ivan Murrell 1963-1974 1350 1306 308 33 44 342 .236 .107 .262 .034 .335
Branyan is the current day version of Rob Deer, pretty much. And, man, if Bo Jackson hadn’t gotten hurt, he woulda been one of the all-time greats.
Do you remember Jim Fuller? I kept hoping somebody would give him a full season shot sometime, but it never happened. He played at the Triple-A level for at least part of every season from 1972 through 1978, hitting an aggregate .231 with 105 homers in 1,646 at-bats, with 224 walks and 599 strikeouts. His Triple-A 2T0Q was .503.
Speaking of minor league 2TOQ performances … Marv Throneberry never put together a major-league season that makes one of these lists (though it wasn’t for lack of trying). But in 1963, after being farmed out by the Mets to Buffalo of the International League, Throneberry put on quite a show: In 261 at-bats, he posted a .176 average with 1 double, no triples, and 16 home runs, 34 walks and 55 strikeouts, for a 2TOQ of .428.
And there’s another guy who left his best 2TO chops in the minors. Glenallen Hill, at Kinston in the Class A Carolina League in 1985, hit .211 with 20 homers in 466 at-bats, with 57 walks and — get this — 211 strikeouts. His 2TOQ was .535.
But I digress …
Single Season Regulars
Here are the top thirty single season 2TOQ studs, with at least 450 plate appearances:
Player Year PA AB H HR BB SO BA HR/H SO/AB BB/AB 2TOQ Dave Kingman 1976 502 474 113 37 28 135 .238 .327 .285 .059 .553 Dave Kingman 1975 536 502 116 36 34 153 .231 .310 .305 .068 .547 Rob Deer 1986 538 466 108 33 72 179 .232 .306 .384 .155 .535 Dave Kingman 1977 467 439 97 26 28 143 .221 .268 .326 .064 .530 Dave Kingman 1982 594 535 109 37 59 156 .204 .339 .292 .110 .521 Ron Kittle 1984 515 466 100 32 49 137 .215 .320 .294 .105 .509 Bo Jackson 1988 464 439 108 25 25 146 .246 .231 .333 .057 .507 Rob Deer 1991 537 448 80 25 89 175 .179 .313 .391 .199 .504 Ruben Rivera 1999 466 411 80 23 55 143 .195 .288 .348 .134 .502 Bo Jackson 1989 554 515 132 32 39 172 .256 .242 .334 .076 .501 Mark McGwire 1997 641 540 148 58 101 159 .274 .392 .294 .187 .499 Sammy Sosa 1999 703 625 180 63 78 171 .288 .350 .274 .125 .499 Sammy Sosa 1996 532 498 136 40 34 134 .273 .294 .269 .068 .495 Jose Canseco 1998 648 583 138 46 65 159 .237 .333 .273 .111 .495 Melvin Nieves 1996 475 431 106 24 44 158 .246 .226 .367 .102 .491 Sammy Sosa 1998 716 643 198 66 73 171 .308 .333 .266 .114 .486 Pete Incaviglia 1988 457 418 104 22 39 153 .249 .212 .366 .093 .484 Rob Deer 1990 504 440 92 27 64 147 .209 .293 .334 .145 .482 Cecil Fielder 1990 663 573 159 51 90 182 .277 .321 .318 .157 .481 Ron Kittle 1983 559 520 132 35 39 150 .254 .265 .288 .075 .479 Cory Snyder 1987 608 577 136 33 31 166 .236 .243 .288 .054 .477 Steve Balboni 1984 483 438 107 28 45 139 .244 .262 .317 .103 .476 Henry Rodriguez 1996 569 532 147 36 37 160 .276 .245 .301 .070 .476 Rob Deer 1989 526 466 98 26 60 158 .210 .265 .339 .129 .476 Dave Kingman 1979 577 532 153 48 45 131 .288 .314 .246 .085 .475 Richie Sexson 2001 658 598 162 45 60 178 .271 .278 .298 .100 .475 Gorman Thomas 1979 655 557 136 45 98 175 .244 .331 .314 .176 .469 Adam Dunn 2003 455 381 82 27 74 126 .215 .329 .331 .194 .466 Tony Armas 1983 603 574 125 36 29 131 .218 .288 .228 .051 .466 Mark McGwire 1999 654 521 145 65 133 141 .278 .448 .271 .255 .464
The Kongster. The Kongulator. Kong-o-rama.
Adam Dunn is showing some promise, but he walks way too much. But he’s still young, so maybe he’ll outgrow it.
Single Season Part-Timers
And the thirty greatest 2TOQ achievements in 200 to 449 plate appearances:
Player Year PA AB H HR BB SO BA HR/H SO/AB BB/AB 2TOQ Dave Kingman 1977-AL 63 60 13 6 3 29 .217 .462 .483 .050 .895 Mark McGwire 2001 355 299 56 29 56 118 .187 .518 .395 .187 .725 Dave Kingman 1973 346 305 62 24 41 122 .203 .387 .400 .134 .653 Mark McGwire 1997-NL 217 174 44 24 43 61 .253 .545 .351 .247 .649 Melvin Nieves 1997 398 359 82 20 39 157 .228 .244 .437 .109 .573 Russ Branyan 2001 353 315 73 20 38 132 .232 .274 .419 .121 .572 Bo Jackson 1987 426 396 93 22 30 158 .235 .237 .399 .076 .560 Willy Mo Pena 2004 358 336 87 26 22 108 .259 .299 .321 .065 .555 Tony Clark 1996 405 376 94 27 29 127 .250 .287 .338 .077 .548 Russ Branyan 2002 429 378 86 24 51 151 .228 .279 .399 .135 .544 Rob Deer 1992 444 393 97 32 51 131 .247 .330 .333 .130 .533 Todd Hundley 2001 276 246 46 12 25 89 .187 .261 .362 .102 .521 Matt Williams 1989 311 292 59 18 14 72 .202 .305 .247 .048 .504 Jesse Barfield 1983 410 388 98 27 22 110 .253 .276 .284 .057 .502 Todd Hundley 1999 428 376 78 24 44 113 .207 .308 .301 .117 .491 Tim Laudner 1987 317 288 55 16 23 80 .191 .291 .278 .080 .489 Dick Stuart 1958 265 254 68 16 11 75 .268 .235 .295 .043 .487 Shane Andrews 2000 222 192 44 14 27 59 .229 .318 .307 .141 .485 Dave Kingman 1974 387 350 78 18 37 125 .223 .231 .357 .106 .482 D. Strawberry 1998 341 295 73 24 46 90 .247 .329 .305 .156 .478 Bob Tillman 1969 209 190 37 12 18 47 .195 .324 .247 .095 .477 Dave Kingman 1977-NL 404 379 84 20 25 114 .222 .238 .301 .066 .473 Craig Paquette 1995 304 283 64 13 12 88 .226 .203 .311 .042 .472 Cory Snyder 1986 432 416 113 24 16 123 .272 .212 .296 .038 .470 Todd Hundley 2002 303 266 56 16 32 80 .211 .286 .301 .120 .466 Steve Balboni 1987 420 386 80 24 34 97 .207 .300 .251 .088 .463 Ron Kittle 1985 410 379 87 26 31 92 .230 .299 .243 .082 .460 Pedro Feliz 2003 249 235 58 16 10 53 .247 .276 .226 .043 .459 Jose Cruz Jr. 1995 436 395 98 26 41 117 .248 .265 .296 .104 .458 Ron Kittle 1986 411 376 82 21 35 110 .218 .256 .293 .093 .456
Okay, I know Kingman’s 1977 AL stint was way too small to be included, but come on. You just have to fall to your knees and admit that you are not worthy.
Mark McGwire had the capacity to overcome a lot of walks in a big way. Like Rob Deer, his Two True Outcomes were so spectacular that they outdid his third.
2TO Isn’t Just for Position Players Anymore
Just for the hell of it … a couple of pitchers who provided extremely entertaining at-bats:
Player Year PA AB H HR BB SO BA HR/H SO/AB BB/AB 2TOQ Earl Wilson 1965 92 79 14 6 13 29 .177 .429 .367 .165 .631 Earl Wilson 1966 104 96 23 7 8 36 .240 .304 .375 .083 .596 Earl Wilson 1968 90 88 20 7 2 35 .227 .350 .398 .023 .725 Don Drysdale 1958 69 66 15 7 3 25 .227 .467 .379 .045 .800 Don Drysdale 1959 95 91 15 4 4 31 .165 .267 .341 .044 .563 Don Drysdale 1961 89 83 16 5 6 24 .193 .313 .289 .072 .529
By the way, if you add these six Wilson and Drysdale seasons together, you get a line that looks like this:
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG HR/H SO/AB BB/AB 2TOQ 503 69 103 3 5 36 87 36 180 .205 .258 .445 .350 .358 .072 .636
Boggles the mind, don’t it. I think my favorite part is the three doubles and five triples deal.
But I digress again …
2TOQ+, Version I
I know what you’re saying to yourself at this point. You’re saying, self, what about putting these accomplishments into league environment context?
There are two ways to compare a guy’s 2TOQ against the league 2TOQ. One is by presenting the individual’s 2TOQ as a percentage of the league mark, where a performance completely equal to the league average would be expressed as 100 (as OPS+ does). Here are the top thirty 2TOQ+ performances figuring it this way (at least back to 1937, which is as far back as I—gasp!—calculated):
Player Year PA AB H HR BB SO BA HR/H SO/AB BB/AB 2TOQ Lg 2TOQ 2TOQ+ Dick Kokos 1949 567 501 131 23 66 91 .261 .176 .182 .132 .225 .040 564 Jack Graham 1949 561 500 119 24 61 62 .238 .202 .124 .122 .204 .040 510 Gus Zernial 1950 581 543 152 29 38 110 .280 .191 .203 .070 .323 .065 501 V. DiMaggio 1943 650 580 144 15 70 126 .248 .104 .217 .121 .201 .040 498 Ralph Kiner 1946 576 502 124 23 74 109 .247 .185 .217 .147 .255 .054 473 Dave Kingman 1976 502 474 113 37 28 135 .238 .327 .285 .059 .553 .117 473 Pat Seerey 1946 469 404 91 26 65 101 .225 .286 .250 .161 .375 .080 468 Dave Kingman 1975 536 502 116 36 34 153 .231 .310 .305 .068 .547 .119 461 Sam Chapman 1938 461 406 105 17 55 94 .259 .162 .232 .135 .258 .057 455 Joe Gordon 1938 514 458 117 25 56 72 .255 .214 .157 .122 .249 .057 439 Gus Zernial 1955 443 413 105 30 30 90 .254 .286 .218 .073 .431 .103 417 Gus Zernial 1951 634 571 153 33 63 101 .268 .216 .177 .110 .282 .069 411 V. DiMaggio 1938 605 540 123 14 65 134 .228 .114 .248 .120 .242 .063 385 G. Alexander 1978 555 498 112 27 57 166 .225 .241 .333 .114 .460 .122 378 Dave Kingman 1982 594 535 109 37 59 156 .204 .339 .292 .110 .521 .141 368 V. DiMaggio 1942 548 496 118 15 52 87 .238 .127 .175 .105 .198 .055 360 Hank Sauer 1948 590 530 138 35 60 85 .260 .254 .160 .113 .301 .084 357 G. Thomas 1979 655 557 136 45 98 175 .244 .331 .314 .176 .469 .132 355 Dave Kingman 1977 467 439 97 26 28 143 .221 .268 .326 .064 .530 .152 349 V. DiMaggio 1941 596 528 141 21 68 100 .267 .149 .189 .129 .210 .060 348 Mike Schmidt 1975 663 562 140 38 101 180 .249 .271 .320 .180 .412 .119 347 G. Thomas 1978 525 452 111 32 73 133 .246 .288 .294 .162 .421 .122 346 Dave Kingman 1979 577 532 153 48 45 131 .288 .314 .246 .085 .475 .139 341 Gus Zernial 1953 613 556 158 42 57 79 .284 .266 .142 .103 .305 .090 341 Ron Kittle 1983 559 520 132 35 39 150 .254 .265 .288 .075 .479 .142 337 G. Thomas 1980 686 628 150 38 58 170 .239 .253 .271 .092 .432 .128 336 Mark McGwire 1997 641 540 148 58 101 159 .274 .392 .294 .187 .499 .149 335 V. DiMaggio 1937 532 493 126 13 39 111 .256 .103 .225 .079 .249 .075 334 Ron Kittle 1984 515 466 100 32 49 137 .215 .320 .294 .105 .509 .153 333 Bo Jackson 1989 554 515 132 32 39 172 .256 .242 .334 .076 .501 .151 332 Tony Armas 1981 459 440 115 22 19 115 .261 .191 .261 .043 .409 .124 331
Interesting, no? Guys like Kokos and Graham wouldn’t stand out as 2TOQ monsters in today’s environment, but in the very different world of the 1949 American League, they did.
By the way: Vince DiMaggio and Pat Seerey both merit acknowledgment as very early, brave 2TO pioneers.
But I’m not really convinced this is the best way to do 2TOQ+. I think this magnifies the performances of players in strongly non-2TOQ leagues too much. Stat lines like those of Kokos and Graham, while obviously hugely unusual in their day, still don’t really channel the come-out-of-the-dugout-swinging-from-the-heels mojo we’re after here.
2TOQ+, Version II
I think a better way to express 2TOQ+ is as a simple subtraction of league figure from player figure, and just show the difference in magnitude. Here’s what we get when we do it this way:
Player Year PA AB H HR BB SO BA HR/H SO/AB BB/AB 2TOQ Lg 2TOQ 2TOQ+ Dave Kingman 1976 502 474 113 37 28 135 .238 .327 .285 .059 .553 .117 .436 Dave Kingman 1975 536 502 116 36 34 153 .231 .310 .305 .068 .547 .119 .429 Dave Kingman 1982 594 535 109 37 59 156 .204 .339 .292 .110 .521 .141 .379 Dave Kingman 1977 467 439 97 26 28 143 .221 .268 .326 .064 .530 .152 .378 Ron Kittle 1984 515 466 100 32 49 137 .215 .320 .294 .105 .509 .153 .356 Rob Deer 1986 538 466 108 33 72 179 .232 .306 .384 .155 .535 .183 .352 Mark McGwire 1997 641 540 148 58 101 159 .274 .392 .294 .187 .499 .149 .350 Bo Jackson 1989 554 515 132 32 39 172 .256 .242 .334 .076 .501 .151 .350 Bo Jackson 1988 464 439 108 25 25 146 .246 .231 .333 .057 .507 .162 .345 Rob Deer 1991 537 448 80 25 89 175 .179 .313 .391 .199 .504 .164 .341 G. Alexander 1978 555 498 112 27 57 166 .225 .241 .333 .114 .460 .122 .338 G. Thomas 1979 655 557 136 45 98 175 .244 .331 .314 .176 .469 .132 .337 Ron Kittle 1983 559 520 132 35 39 150 .254 .265 .288 .075 .479 .142 .337 Dave Kingman 1979 577 532 153 48 45 131 .288 .314 .246 .085 .475 .139 .336 Gus Zernial 1955 454 413 105 30 30 90 .254 .286 .218 .073 .431 .103 .328 Rob Deer 1990 504 440 92 27 64 147 .209 .293 .334 .145 .482 .156 .326 C. Fielder 1990 663 573 159 51 90 182 .277 .321 .318 .157 .481 .156 .325 Rob Deer 1989 526 466 98 26 60 158 .210 .265 .339 .129 .476 .151 .325 Tony Armas 1983 603 574 125 36 29 131 .218 .288 .228 .051 .466 .142 .324 S. Balboni 1984 483 438 107 28 45 139 .244 .262 .317 .103 .476 .153 .323 P.Incaviglia 1988 457 418 104 22 39 153 .249 .212 .366 .093 .484 .162 .322 Bo Jackson 1990 456 405 110 28 44 128 .272 .255 .316 .109 .462 .156 .306 G. Thomas 1980 686 628 150 38 58 170 .239 .253 .271 .092 .432 .128 .303 Dave Kingman 1972 523 472 106 29 51 140 .225 .274 .297 .108 .462 .159 .303 Jose Canseco 1990 553 481 132 37 72 158 .274 .280 .328 .150 .459 .156 .303 G. Thomas 1978 525 452 111 32 73 133 .246 .288 .294 .162 .421 .122 .299 Pat Seerey 1946 469 404 91 26 65 101 .225 .286 .250 .161 .375 .080 .295 Ruben Rivera 1999 466 411 80 23 55 143 .195 .288 .348 .134 .502 .208 .294 Mike Schmidt 1975 663 562 140 38 101 180 .249 .271 .320 .180 .412 .119 .293 Tony Armas 1984 671 639 171 43 32 156 .268 .251 .244 .050 .446 .153 .293
Now we’re cooking with gas! That’s what I’m talkin’ about! When Kingman takes the top four spots, you know you’ve got it working just right.
Career 2TOQ+
So now let’s calculate the 2TOQ+ for all these guys’ career stats … no, wait. That would be a ton of work, wouldn’t it. Never mind.
In Conclusion
A shout-out to all you youngsters reading this, who have hopes of being a major-league ballplayer someday. What you really want most of all is to see your name on one of these 2TOQ lists, don’t you. Of course you do.
Understand that it won’t just “happen.” You’ll have to work darn hard at it. Just keep these fundamentals in mind:
– A pitch taken is an opportunity missed. Swing early, and swing often.
– When swinging, don’t ever “put the ball in play,” or “go up the middle,” or “hit the ball where it’s pitched.” Nobody ever hit one 500 feet doing that, and besides, that puts you in danger of avoiding the strikeout.