Who is platooning in 2013?
Back in February, I wrote about platooning in baseball and how teams deployed that tactic in 2012. I introduced a stat I called PlatoonPA, which is a measure of how many plate appearances a player and his team were able to convert from the confrontation of same-handed opponents to the more advantageous one of the opposite-handed ones.
Here is a brief excerpt from that article, because who doesn’t get a kick out of quoting himself?
I decided to look only at starter-versus-starter confrontations. Why? Because I liked the purity of it. It’s like Effron’s dice—the pitching team is forced to make the first choice (it’s not really a choice, as starting pitchers are used in order, not to create match-up advantages), which enables you to choose your hitting team in a way that will give you the best odds to win.
Everything that happens later in the game, once the pinch-hitters and relief pitchers enter the stage, is a game of action and reaction where both teams have a chance to turn the handedness of the confrontation in their favor. As I said, it’s not the only way to go about it, but it is the one I chose.
Matching your starting lineup to the handedness of the opposing starting pitcher is indeed the time and the place to gain advantage.
While you have better-than-average odds of a favorable matchup for your batter while the starters are in, those odds quickly sink once replacements take the stage. Matt Joyce leads the league in 2013 PlatoonPA. As a starter facing a starting pitcher, only three percent of his plate appearances were against a left-hander, yet in the rest of his at-bats that number rose to 33 percent, just about the league average.
We might miss an advantageous plate appearance or two by focusing only on starter-versus-starter duels, but we are capturing the core and have a much healthier signal-to-noise ratio than we would by looking at the entirety of the stats. So, in short, if you want to beat the system, you do it by penciling into your lineup card batters who are opposite-handed of the pitcher. Everything else is just shaving your beard before you step on the scale.
So, who are the 50 players who were platooned the most in 2013, you ask? These are the top 50 players so far this season.
Rank Player Team Bats plPA vsL vsR xVsL xVsR 1 Matt Joyce tba L 77 8 242 85 165 2 Sean Rodriguez tba R 73 116 10 43 83 3 Nate Freiman oak R 71 108 4 37 75 4 Gregor Blanco sfn L 67 16 240 83 173 5 N. Schierholtz chn L 64 9 241 73 177 6 Jonny Gomes bos R 60 112 45 52 105 7 Brandon Moss oak L 60 21 222 81 162 8 Luis Valbuena chn L 59 5 216 64 157 9 Nate McLouth bal L 59 43 269 102 210 10 Andy Dirks det L 59 13 221 72 162 11 Matt Tuiasosopo det R 58 89 11 31 69 12 Will Venable sdn L 57 29 226 86 169 13 Cody Ransom chn R 56 90 26 34 82 14 Eric Sogard oak L 56 12 192 68 136 15 John Jaso oak L 54 0 162 54 108 16 Mark DeRosa tor R 54 84 28 30 82 17 Chris Denorfia sdn R 53 133 102 80 155 18 Alexi Amarista sdn L 53 6 169 59 116 19 Garrett Jones pit L 53 0 272 53 219 20 Jesus Guzman sdn R 53 96 31 43 84 21 Derek Norris oak R 53 106 54 53 107 22 Scott Hairston chn R 52 73 0 21 52 23 David DeJesus chn L 49 12 196 61 147 24 A.J. Pollock ari R 47 117 107 70 154 25 Jason Kubel ari L 47 3 156 50 109 26 Travis Hafner nya L 46 14 178 60 132 27 Mike Aviles cle R 45 98 70 53 115 28 Ryan Flaherty bal L 43 5 141 48 98 29 Gaby Sanchez pit R 43 69 66 26 109 30 Jordan Pacheco col R 43 81 28 38 71 31 Xavier Paul cin L 42 3 131 45 89 32 Jeff Baker tex R 40 64 16 24 56 33 Miguel Tejada kca R 39 72 41 33 80 34 Jason Castro hou L 39 38 264 77 225 35 Jason Bay sea R 39 89 62 50 101 36 Craig Gentry tex R 39 73 42 34 81 37 Seth Smith oak L 38 38 192 76 154 38 Juan Francisco mil L 38 2 142 40 104 39 Skip Schumaker lan L 38 13 145 51 107 40 David Murphy tex L 38 39 218 77 180 41 Ike Davis nyn L 38 33 177 71 139 42 Conor Gillaspie cha L 38 22 231 60 193 43 Todd Helton col L 38 38 176 76 138 44 Ryan Roberts tba R 37 73 32 36 69 45 Brandon Belt sfn L 37 53 226 90 189 46 Steve Pearce bal R 37 64 18 27 55 47 Mike Carp bos L 37 2 116 39 79 48 Jason Giambi cle L 36 0 114 36 78 49 Eric Chavez ari L 36 3 121 39 85 50 Chris Young oak R 35 94 84 59 119
As you can see from the leading duo, the Rays faced right-handed starters just about twice as often as left-handed ones. Thus, without mixing and matching, one would expect both Rodriguez and Joyce to have a similar mix in their plate appearances, which is shown in the last two columns, expected plate appearances versus left-handed starters (i>xVsL) and versus right-handed starters (xVsR).
In reality, they were very heavily platooned. Instead of 85 plate appearances versus left-handers, Matt Joyce, a left-hander himself, only had to face them eight times. By doing so, the Rays increased his odds of production on 77 such occasions, thus generating 77 platoon plate appearances.
You will notice that there are no switch-hitters on this list. I have purposely stayed away from them, as it is anything but trivial to make a well-educated guess which side the switch-hitters actually perform better from, at least in an automatic, algorithmic way.
So, while there are switch-hitters who deviate from the expected handedness mix, we don’t necessarily know if it is because of their own strengths or because they are covering for a teammate’s weakness. More on them in a separate article later, perhaps. Only one switch-hitter would have cracked top 50, anyway, Andres Torres with his 56 PlatoonPA, and Daniel Nava places second on that list with 31.
Tampa Bay has the No. 1 and No. 2 on the above list, but that will only bring them to fourth place on the team classification as no team in baseball has platooned even remotely as aggressively as the Oakland Athletics. With seven players on the top 50 list and Adam Rosales just barely missing the cut, the A’s have over 100 platoon plate appearances more than anyone else.
Team plPA oak 464 chn 332 sdn 326 tba 298 cle 272 ari 272 nyn 269 sfn 265 mia 226 hou 218 nya 218 bal 215 kca 207 pit 203 det 202 tex 187 bos 184 mil 183 lan 175 tor 164 sea 157 cha 154 sln 141 atl 140 was 129 col 123 cin 115 ana 96 phi 92 min 54
The A’s already have surpassed their mark from last year and are on pace to reach a record-breaking 600 platoon plate appearances. Considering that the value of a single platoon plate appearance is approximately 0.03 runs (calculating the regressed splits of the platoon players as described here), the A’s are on their way to scrape together almost two additional wins due to their roster usage.
And this is clearly by design. The trades for Jaso and Young targeted players with pronounced observed splits, and the Jaso acquisition was especially valuable, as it allowed the A’s to expand platooning to the less traditional catcher’s spot. Increased usage of Sogard allowed them to mix and match in the infield, as well, showing how left-handed-hitting catchers, second basemen and shortstops are perhaps the new undervalued commodity.
Nice work! And I hear you on the “shave your beard” thought – plus it would be tough to run easily – but as a Nats fan I have a visceral reaction every time Davey Johnson leaves LaRoche in at a high-leverage point versus a leftie just because he properly started him against a RH starter. I’m pretty sure the numbers would show that the mismanagement of substituting platoon advantage for starting position players against relievers (as opposed to just putting in the right choice to replace pitchers) has led to more than a few runners stranded that shouldn’t have been.
Regardless, enjoy the piece.
Great stuff. Thank you for this. I can never get enough of analysis of platoon splits.
What would be fantastic is a list of players who have bad platoon splits, so that we know which players to avoid in certain situations.
Perhaps next year we could have a similar report a few times during the season, showing the players performing well and badly.