August shortstop rankings

Most fantasy rankings are forged on “gut calls” and the whimsical notions of whoever is compiling the list. Some experts don’t pay for saves, some don’t pay for steals, some wait on pitching, some value upside, some value reliability, and so on. While it might be nice to see plenty of different opinions, it probably doesn’t truly help unless you understand the biases of each individual ranker. This is why some of the writers here at The Hardball Times have created their own, objective valuation methods, outlined here and here (reading, or at least skimming, these introductory articles will give you a much better understanding of the rankings that follow and should help to answer most potential questions).

In accompaniment with Oliver’s ZiPS’ rest-of-season forecasts, we will use these objective formulas to create objective rankings. You may not agree with a particular rank, but you will know how the ranking was calculated and you won’t have to guess what the ranker was thinking. This should make adding your own personal adjustments and biases much easier. And perhaps this type of ranking will introduce some potential buys and sells that you may have otherwise overlooked.

These rankings will assume a 12-team league in adjusting for league average. The ordering of players, however, is unaffected; players will rank in identical order for leagues of all sizes.

Previous installments:
{exp:list_maker}Catchers
First Basemen
Second Basemen
Third Base{/exp:list_maker}

Num
Name
AB
R
HR
RBI
SB
AVG
rPAA (ROS)
EYES (ROS)
Full Season*
1
Starlin Castro
226
29
4
25
8
0.292
0.71
1.19
10.20
2
Troy Tulowitzki
160
26
8
28
4
0.294
0.69
1.03
10.12
3
Hanley Ramirez
176
27
6
25
9
0.267
0.59
0.76
9.83
4
Jose Reyes
182
27
3
15
12
0.297
0.52
0.80
9.62
5
Elvis Andrus
213
31
1
19
12
0.282
0.48
0.84
9.52
6
Jimmy Rollins
190
27
5
21
9
0.258
0.23
0.23
8.77
7
Asdrubal Cabrera
200
27
6
24
4
0.275
0.20
0.34
8.68
8
Alexei Ramirez
205
26
5
25
4
0.273
0.07
0.15
8.31
9
Ian Desmond
188
23
5
22
7
0.266
0.02
-0.08
8.17
10
Alcides Escobar
199
25
2
17
9
0.281
-0.02
0.00
8.03
11
Dee Gordon
191
23
 
10
17
0.262
-0.08
-0.33
7.86
12
Danny Espinosa
200
27
6
22
7
0.235
-0.11
-0.35
7.77
13
Derek Jeter
202
28
3
19
4
0.282
-0.16
-0.04
7.64
14
Emilio Bonifacio
156
22
1
9
12
0.263
-0.47
-0.83
6.71
15
Erick Aybar
178
22
2
16
7
0.27
-0.49
-0.75
6.66
16
J.J. Hardy
186
24
7
21
 
0.253
-0.55
-0.85
6.49
17
Jhonny Peralta
184
21
5
25
 
0.266
-0.56
-0.82
6.45
18
Rafael Furcal
155
24
3
15
5
0.265
-0.57
-0.82
6.43
19
Zack Cozart
187
27
5
16
3
0.251
-0.57
-0.83
6.42
20
Trevor Plouffe
164
23
7
19
1
0.25
-0.58
-0.94
6.40
21
Mike Aviles
158
18
4
19
4
0.266
-0.64
-1.06
6.22
22
Yunel Escobar
186
24
4
18
1
0.269
-0.68
-0.92
6.09
23
Brian Dozier
188
22
2
17
5
0.25
-0.86
-1.33
5.57
24
Andrelton Simmons
162
19
1
14
5
0.278
-0.87
-1.28
5.53
25
Cliff Pennington
172
21
2
15
7
0.238
-0.90
-1.50
5.44
26
Marco Scutaro
177
21
2
15
3
0.266
-0.96
-1.39
5.26
27
Yuniesky Betancourt
163
16
4
21
1
0.258
-0.99
-1.58
5.18
28
Ryan Theriot
169
20
 
14
5
0.272
-0.99
-1.42
5.18
29
Pedro Ciriaco
122
15
1
14
5
0.262
-1.17
-1.84
4.67
30
Sean Rodriguez
138
18
4
16
3
0.225
-1.18
-1.95
4.62
31
Everth Cabrera
117
16
1
9
9
0.231
-1.18
-2.01
4.62
32
Willie Bloomquist
122
16
1
8
5
0.279
-1.23
-1.86
4.49
33
Ruben Tejada
161
18
1
13
2
0.273
-1.27
-1.83
4.37
34
Alexi Amarista
152
17
1
15
4
0.25
-1.27
-1.97
4.36
35
Eric Sogard
138
19
2
13
3
0.246
-1.27
-1.94
4.36
36
Stephen Drew
124
16
3
15
1
0.258
-1.28
-1.97
4.33
37
Jed Lowrie
111
14
4
14
1
0.252
-1.33
-2.12
4.19
38
Elliot Johnson
111
12
2
11
6
0.243
-1.34
-2.25
4.16
39
Cody Ransom
121
14
5
18
1
0.215
-1.37
-2.31
4.07
40
Brendan Ryan
139
18
1
12
4
0.23
-1.50
-2.34
3.69

*Full season = the raw (non-adjusted) full season pace roto score using the roto points-above-replacement method. This is, essentially, the amount of expected roto points each player would score above an empty spot in a lineup over a full season.

Analysis

Troy Tulowitzki – Tulo took batting practice Tuesday for the first time since undergoing surgery on his groin. There is still no timetable for his return, however, and with the Rockies’ position, 29 games below .500, it would be prudent to make sure he is fully healthy before bringing him back. There is no indication that the Rockies are planning on, or considering, shutting Tulowitzki down for the remainder of the season, so without any major setbacks, he should see action at some point in 2012.

ZiPS projects Tulowitzki to play in 43 of the Rockies’ remaining 57 games. Since there is still no timetable for his return, this seems overly optimistic.

Arbitrary adjustment: Taking my best guess, I would project around 34 games for Tulo. This would move his value to 0.05 (rPAA) and 0.03 (EYES), ninth among shortstops.

Starlin Castro – At the end of April, Castro had 10 stolen bases and looked like he might be on his way to a 30-steal season. He followed that up with five steals in May, but since then he has stolen just one base in six attempts over the past two months. ZiPS has Castro down for eight more steals the rest of the way. Steals can come at random, but unless his current stolen base trajectory takes an drastic turn, paying for eight steals the rest of the way might not be the wisest move.

Arbitrary adjustment: Four steals? Does that sound fair? That is what I am going with. This would move his expected roto score down to 0.36 (rPAA) and 0.76 (EYES), also sliding him down to fourth at shortstop.

Ian Desmond – Desmond is currently on the disabled list and, as with Tulowitzki, there is no timetable for return. Players with this type of oblique injury collectively miss an average of 26 games, according to the Los Angeles Dodgers’ senior director of medical services, Stan Conte, who has studied this sort of injury extensively.

Desmond was placed on the DL on July 22, so look for him to return sometime close to the end of August, which would leave the Nationals with about 40 games left in the season. Assuming he plays all of those games, his new expected roto value becomes -0.53 (rAA) and 0.95 (EYES), moving him back to 15th at the position.

Dee Gordon – Gordon suffered a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right thumb on July 4. According to Gordon’s original timetable, he is expected to miss at least two more weeks. That timetable was announced about three weeks ago, so it might be outdated by now.

Assuming he is still on course for a five-week recovery, a reasonable expectation might be 35-40 games from this point forward, much less than the 47 games that ZiPS projects. And that is also assuming that the Dodgers don’t get tired of his .280 on base percentage, and .263 wOBA, and cut his playing time now that they have added Hanley Ramirez.

Arbitrary adjustment: With 35 games played, and that might be a bit volatile, his expected roto value moves down to -0.75 (rPAA) and -1.35 (EYES), which makes him the new 22nd ranked shortstop.

Josh Rutledge – ZiPS does not have a projection for Josh Rutledge. However, since he was called-up on July 13, Rutledge has hit .329/.348/.659, with six home runs and three stolen bases, so he is merits mentioning.

Can Rutledge continue at this pace? No. But, there are reasons to believe that he could be useful for owners in need of a middle infield option down the stretch. His .349 BABIP is probably a bit high, but he has maintained a high BABIP throughout his minor league career and is seen as having the hitting tools that might foreshadow a high BABIP. He is also controlling his strikeouts (15.5 percent), as he did in the minors, so while a .329 average is probably out of his reach going forward, we shouldn’t expect a complete free-fall either, especially when he plays half of his games in Coors Field.

Coors Field will help his home run totals, too, but he is more of a gap hitter than a home run hitter. Rutledge is also a solid runner and has stolen 30 bases in the minors since the beginning of 2011 (902 plate appearances), so look for a modest contribution on the base paths as well.

The Rockies won’t be taking Rutledge out of the lineup while he has a .445 wOBA, but Tulowitzki will be returning at some point this season. With the way Rutledge is hitting, that could mean he moves to second base, pushing DJ LeMahieu to the bench, or, if Rutledge comes back to earth, he and LeMahieu could split time at second. Tulo’s return will make this situation much more hazy if Rutledge does begin to slump, but right now he is playing, and playing very well. I’d be skeptical about going all-in, though.

Arbitrary projection: A fantasy line of 21/4/17/4/.272 in 182 at-bats. This would give him expected roto values of -0.53 (rPAA) and -0.86 (EYES), ranking him as the 16th best shortstop for the remainder of 2012.