Early 2013 fantasy baseball top 300

by Jesse Sakstrup
November 5, 2012

We are only a week removed from the culmination of the 2012 postseason, and while the offseason is still in it’s most nascent stages, it is never too early to look towards the upcoming season. Below is my preliminary—and incredibly early—look at the top 300 fantasy baseball players for the 2013 season. Players are ranked by their expected value in standard 5×5 Rotisserie leagues. The list is slanted slightly towards 12-team leagues, but the ordering would stray very little in any other format.

Ranking Methodology

I have created my own regression-based projections for well over 300 players, looking at a profusion of peripheral data to arrive at projections that I feel are reasonable, break-even points for each player. Back in August, I outlined my personal method for valuing players, called ‘roto points above average’ (rPAA), a method that is both quantitative and objective (outlined here and here). I use the same methodology in these rankings, with the sole exception that I am using my own projections instead of projections generated by ZiPS, which were used in the August rankings.

Once all players have been projected, positional adjustments are then made to account for dearth and abundance. Once this is completed, the values are set and a rough outline is created. My rankings do not reflect the precise ordering of players by projected roto point total, as my own subjectivity does move players up or down when the difference between them is merely fractions of a point.

Understanding my personal biases

I tended to rank catchers, starting pitchers and relief pitchers slightly lower than where their projected roto point total suggested they should go. This is because these positions usually have less certainty with regards to health, and because the surface numbers of pitchers (ERA, WHIP, wins and saves) are more vulnerable to wild fluctuations due to random variation or team context rather than skill elevation or degradation. And with closers, roles are in constant flux, making values extremely mercurial, rendering closers more replaceable with shrewd waiver-wire manipulation.

Remember that while these rankings are reasoned and were contrived deliberately, I cannot claim to have dissected every player profile with a surgeon’s precision. In the coming months, I will delve deeper into plate discipline statistics, pitch-f/x data, and more individualized qualitative analysis. And, as always, roster moves, playing time expectations, closer roles, and injury status will become more salient in the coming months, inevitably affecting subsequent rankings.

I will update this list periodically throughout the offseason, but for now this is what my initial top 300 for 2013 looks like. Comments, critique, suggestions and questions are welcome.

Num Player Name Team Position
1 Miguel Cabrera Det 3B
2 Ryan Braun Mil OF
3 Mike Trout LAA OF
4 Matt Kemp LAD OF
5 Robinson Cano NYY 2B
6 Joey Votto Cin 1B
7 Albert Pujols LAA 1B
8 Carlos Gonzalez Col OF
9 Andrew McCutchen Pit OF
10 Justin Verlander Det SP
11 Jose Bautista Tor OF
12 Prince Fielder Det 1B
13 Josh Hamilton Tex OF
14 Adrian Beltre Tex 3B
15 Giancarlo Stanton Mia OF
16 Clayton Kershaw LAD SP
17 Evan Longoria TB 3B
18 Hanley Ramirez LAD SS/3B
19 Ian Kinsler Tex 2B
20 Stephen Strasburg Was SP
21 Buster Posey SF C/1B
22 David Wright NYM 3B
23 Jose Reyes Mia SS
24 Dustin Pedroia Bos 2B
25 Troy Tulowitzki Col SS
26 Jason Heyward Atl OF
27 Justin Upton Ari OF
28 Starlin Castro ChC SS
29 David Price TB SP
30 Matt Cain SF SP
31 Adrian Gonzalez LAD 1B
32 Felix Hernandez Sea SP
33 Edwin Encarnacion Tor 1B
34 Matt Holliday StL OF
35 Curtis Granderson NYY OF
36 Adam Jones Bal OF
37 Bryce Harper Was OF
38 Cliff Lee Phi SP
39 Brandon Phillips Cin 2B
40 Cole Hamels Phi SP
41 Jered Weaver LAA SP
42 Joe Mauer Min C/1B
43 Jacoby Ellsbury Bos OF
44 Jay Bruce Cin OF
45 B.J. Upton TB OF
46 Billy Butler KC 1B
47 CC Sabathia NYY SP
48 Ben Zobrist TB 2B/SS/OF
49 Alex Rios CWS OF
50 R.A. Dickey NYM SP
51 Aramis Ramirez Mil 3B
52 Mark Teixeira NYY 1B
53 Roy Halladay Phi SP
54 Aaron Hill Ari 2B
55 Jason Kipnis Cle 2B
56 Ryan Zimmerman Was 3B
57 Craig Kimbrel Atl RP
58 Corey Hart Mil 1B/OF
59 Shin-Soo Choo Cle OF
60 Ian Desmond Was SS
61 Brett Lawrie Tor 3B
62 Yoenis Cespedes Oak OF
63 Jimmy Rollins Phi SS
64 Zack Greinke LAA SP
65 Chase Headley SD 3B
66 Madison Bumgarner SF SP
67 Pablo Sandoval SF 3B
68 James Shields TB SP
69 David Ortiz Bos DH
70 Chris Sale CWS SP
71 Paul Konerko CWS 1B
72 Aroldis Chapman Cin RP
73 Michael Bourn Atl OF
74 Gio Gonzalez Was SP
75 Allen Craig StL 1B/OF
76 Adam Wainwright StL SP
77 Melky Cabrera SF OF
78 Yadier Molina StL C
79 Jose Altuve Hou 2B
80 Hunter Pence SF OF
81 Yu Darvish Tex SP
82 Carlos Santana Cle C/1B
83 Shane Victorino LAD OF
84 Alex Gordon KC OF
85 Kris Medlen Atl SP
86 Derek Jeter NYY SS
87 Michael Morse Was OF
88 Mat Latos Cin SP
89 Carlos Beltran StL OF
90 Asdrubal Cabrera Cle SS
91 Paul Goldschmidt Ari 1B
92 Elvis Andrus Tex SS
93 Max Scherzer Det SP
94 Jonathan Papelbon Phi RP
95 Kenley Jansen LAD RP
96 Matt Wieters Bal C
97 Desmond Jennings TB OF
98 Freddie Freeman Atl 1B
99 Yovani Gallardo Mil SP
100 Eric Hosmer KC 1B
101 Dan Haren LAA SP
102 Wilin Rosario Col C/1B
103 Johnny Cueto Cin SP
104 Neil Walker Pit 2B
105 Jason Motte StL RP
106 Mark Trumbo LAA 1B/OF
107 Carl Crawford Bos OF
108 Jordan Zimmermann Was SP
109 Nelson Cruz Tex OF
110 Mike Napoli Tex C/1B
111 Ian Kennedy Ari SP
112 Josh Willingham Min OF
113 Ernesto Frieri LAA RP
114 Matt Garza ChC SP
115 Austin Jackson Det OF
116 Tim Lincecum SF SP
117 Matt Moore TB SP
118 Salvador Perez KC C
119 Sergio Romo SF RP
120 Dan Uggla Atl 2B
121 Victor Martinez Det C
122 Alexei Ramirez CWS SS
123 Andre Ethier LAD OF
124 Hiroki Kuroda NYY SP
125 Ichiro Suzuki NYY OF
126 Joe Nathan Tex RP
127 Doug Fister Det SP
128 Ike Davis NYM 1B
129 Glen Perkins Min RP
130 Miguel Montero Ari C
131 Jake Peavy CWS SP
132 Martin Prado Atl 3B/OF
133 Jayson Werth Was OF
134 Tom Wilhelmsen Sea RP
135 Lance Lynn StL SP
136 Alejandro De Aza CWS OF
137 Josh Johnson Mia SP
138 Matt Harvey NYM SP
139 Adam LaRoche Was 1B
140 Marco Estrada Mil SP
141 Brett Anderson Oak SP
142 Fernando Rodney TB RP
143 Alcides Escobar KC SS
144 Brian McCann Atl C
145 Chase Utley Phi 2B
146 Rickie Weeks Mil 2B
147 Carlos Gomez Mil OF
148 Nick Swisher NYY OF
149 Josh Rutledge Col SS
150 Jon Lester Bos SP
151 Will Middlebrooks Bos 3B
152 Tommy Hanson Atl SP
153 Drew Storen Was RP
154 Anthony Rizzo ChC 1B
155 Greg Holland KC RP
156 Tim Hudson Atl SP
157 Jeff Samardzija ChC SP
158 Ryan Howard Phi 1B
159 Shaun Marcum Mil SP
160 C.J. Wilson LAA SP
161 Coco Crisp Oak OF
162 Adam Dunn CWS 1B
163 Erick Aybar LAA SS
164 Grant Balfour Oak RP
165 J.J. Putz Ari RP
166 Angel Pagan SF OF
167 Michael Cuddyer Col 1B/OF
168 A.J. Burnett Pit SP
169 David Freese StL 3B
170 Danny Espinosa Was 2B/SS
171 Kyle Lohse StL SP
172 Nick Markakis Bal OF
173 Wade Miley Ari SP
174 Alex Rodriguez NYY 3B
175 Ben Revere Min OF
176 Jon Niese NYM SP
177 Jaime Garcia StL SP
178 Chris Davis Bal 1B/OF
179 Ryan Dempster Tex SP
180 Rafael Betancourt Col RP
181 Edwin Jackson Was SP
182 Mike Moustakas KC 3B
183 Joel Hanrahan Pit RP
184 Manny Machado Bal 3B
185 Josh Beckett LAD SP
186 Howie Kendrick LAA 2B
187 Jarrod Parker Oak SP
188 Alex Cobb TB SP
189 Matt Harrison Tex SP
190 Carlos Ruiz Phi C
191 Casey Janssen Tor RP
192 Ryan Vogelsong SF SP
193 Jason Kubel Ari OF
194 Jim Johnson Bal RP
195 Josh Reddick Oak OF
196 Anibal Sanchez Det SP
197 Brett Gardner NYY OF
198 Huston Street SD RP
199 Addison Reed CWS RP
200 J.J. Hardy Bal SS
201 Brandon Morrow Tor SP
202 Torii Hunter LAA OF
203 Chris Capuano LAD SP
204 Rafael Soriano NYY RP
205 Lorenzo Cain KC OF
206 Wilton Lopez Hou RP
207 Jason Hammel Bal SP
208 Justin Ruggiano Mia OF
209 A.J. Griffin Oak SP
210 Andrew Bailey Bos RP
211 John Axford Mil RP
212 Kendrys Morales LAA 1B
213 Everth Cabrera SD SS
214 Ted Lilly LAD SP
215 Marco Scutaro SF 2B/SS
216 Yasmani Grandal SD C
217 Chris Perez Cle RP
218 Drew Stubbs Cin OF
219 Todd Frazier Cin 1B/3B
220 Alfonso Soriano ChC OF
221 Homer Bailey Cin SP
222 Brandon Moss Oak 1B/OF
223 Steve Cishek Mia RP
224 Jesus Montero Sea C
225 Daniel Murphy NYM 2B
226 Jeremy Hellickson TB SP
227 Carlos Marmol ChC RP
228 Norichika Aoki Mil OF
229 Jon Jay StL OF
230 David Murphy Tex OF
231 Justin Morneau Min 1B
232 Phil Hughes NYY SP
233 Dustin Ackley Sea 2B
234 Dexter Fowler Col OF
235 Emilio Bonifacio Mia OF
236 Mariano Rivera NYY RP
237 Wandy Rodriguez Pit SP
238 Trevor Bauer Ari SP
239 Jarrod Saltalamacchia Bos C
240 Chad Billingsley LAD SP
241 Tyler Colvin Col 1B/OF
242 Pedro Alvarez Pit 3B
243 Mark Buehrle Mia SP
244 Jean Segura Min SS
245 Trevor Cahill Ari SP
246 Frank Francisco NYM RP
247 Drew Smyly Det SP
248 Cameron Maybin SD OF
249 Kevin Youkilis CWS 3B
250 Kelly Johnson Tor 2B
251 Andrew Cashner SD SP
252 Shelby Miller StL SP
253 Rajai Davis Tor OF
254 Hisashi Iwakuma Sea SP
255 Chris Young Oak OF
256 Colby Rasmus Tor OF
257 Mark Reynolds Bal 1B
258 Zack Cozart Cin SS
259 Starling Marte Pit OF
260 Logan Morrison Mia OF
261 Jonathan Lucroy Mil C
262 Tyler Clippard Was RP
263 Brandon Belt SF 1B
264 Michael Fiers Mil SP
265 Matt Joyce TB OF
266 Joaquin Benoit Det RP
267 Dayan Viciedo CWS OF
268 Bobby Parnell NYM RP
269 Mike Minor Atl SP
270 Omar Infante Det 2B
271 Jose Valverde Det RP
272 Tommy Milone Oak SP
273 Brian Wilson SF RP
274 Garrett Jones Pit 1B/OF
275 Carlos Quentin SD OF
276 Ryan Ludwick StL OF
277 Vinnie Pestano Cle RP
278 J.P. Arencibia Tor C
279 Cody Ross Bos OF
280 Jhonny Peralta Det SS
281 Kyle Seager Sea 3B
282 David Robertson NYY RP
283 James McDonald Pit SP
284 Russell Martin NYY C
285 A.J. Pierzynski CWS C
286 David Hernandez Ari RP
287 Jed Lowrie Hou SS
288 Andrelton Simmons Atl SS
289 Johan Santana NYM SP
290 Wilson Ramos Was C
291 Michael Brantley Cle OF
292 Junuchi Tazawa Bos RP
293 Jason Vargas Sea SP
294 Ryan Doumit Min C/OF
295 Justin Maxwell Hou OF
296 Lucas Harrell Hou SP
297 Sean Marshall Cin RP
298 Alex Avila Det C
299 Brandon McCarthy Oak SP
300 Jake McGee TB RP

Num	Player Name	Team	Position
1	Miguel Cabrera	Det	3B
2	Ryan Braun	Mil	OF
3	Mike Trout	LAA	OF
4	Matt Kemp	LAD	OF
5	Robinson Cano	NYY	2B
6	Joey Votto	Cin	1B
7	Albert Pujols	LAA	1B
8	Carlos Gonzalez	Col	OF
9	Andrew McCutchen	Pit	OF
10	Justin Verlander	Det	SP
11	Jose Bautista	Tor	OF
12	Prince Fielder	Det	1B
13	Josh Hamilton	Tex	OF
14	Adrian Beltre	Tex	3B
15	Giancarlo Stanton	Mia	OF
16	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	SP
17	Evan Longoria	TB	3B
18	Hanley Ramirez	LAD	SS/3B
19	Ian Kinsler	Tex	2B
20	Stephen Strasburg	Was	SP
21	Buster Posey	SF	C/1B
22	David Wright	NYM	3B
23	Jose Reyes	Mia	SS
24	Dustin Pedroia	Bos	2B
25	Troy Tulowitzki	Col	SS
26	Jason Heyward	Atl	OF
27	Justin Upton	Ari	OF
28	Starlin Castro	ChC	SS
29	David Price	TB	SP
30	Matt Cain	SF	SP
31	Adrian Gonzalez	LAD	1B
32	Felix Hernandez	Sea	SP
33	Edwin Encarnacion	Tor	1B
34	Matt Holliday	StL	OF
35	Curtis Granderson	NYY	OF
36	Adam Jones	Bal	OF
37	Bryce Harper	Was	OF
38	Cliff Lee	Phi	SP
39	Brandon Phillips	Cin	2B
40	Cole Hamels	Phi	SP
41	Jered Weaver	LAA	SP
42	Joe Mauer	Min	C/1B
43	Jacoby Ellsbury	Bos	OF
44	Jay Bruce	Cin	OF
45	B.J. Upton	TB	OF
46	Billy Butler	KC	1B
47	CC Sabathia	NYY	SP
48	Ben Zobrist	TB	2B/SS/OF
49	Alex Rios	CWS	OF
50	R.A. Dickey	NYM	SP
51	Aramis Ramirez	Mil	3B
52	Mark Teixeira	NYY	1B
53	Roy Halladay	Phi	SP
54	Aaron Hill	Ari	2B
55	Jason Kipnis	Cle	2B
56	Ryan Zimmerman	Was	3B
57	Craig Kimbrel	Atl	RP
58	Corey Hart	Mil	1B/OF
59	Shin-Soo Choo	Cle	OF
60	Ian Desmond	Was	SS
61	Brett Lawrie	Tor	3B
62	Yoenis Cespedes	Oak	OF
63	Jimmy Rollins	Phi	SS
64	Zack Greinke	LAA	SP
65	Chase Headley	SD	3B
66	Madison Bumgarner	SF	SP
67	Pablo Sandoval	SF	3B
68	James Shields	TB	SP
69	David Ortiz	Bos	DH
70	Chris Sale	CWS	SP
71	Paul Konerko	CWS	1B
72	Aroldis Chapman	Cin	RP
73	Michael Bourn	Atl	OF
74	Gio Gonzalez	Was	SP
75	Allen Craig	StL	1B/OF
76	Adam Wainwright	StL	SP
77	Melky Cabrera	SF	OF
78	Yadier Molina	StL	C
79	Jose Altuve	Hou	2B
80	Hunter Pence	SF	OF
81	Yu Darvish	Tex	SP
82	Carlos Santana	Cle	C/1B
83	Shane Victorino	LAD	OF
84	Alex Gordon	KC	OF
85	Kris Medlen	Atl	SP
86	Derek Jeter	NYY	SS
87	Michael Morse	Was	OF
88	Mat Latos	Cin	SP
89	Carlos Beltran	StL	OF
90	Asdrubal Cabrera	Cle	SS
91	Paul Goldschmidt	Ari	1B
92	Elvis Andrus	Tex	SS
93	Max Scherzer	Det	SP
94	Jonathan Papelbon	Phi	RP
95	Kenley Jansen	LAD	RP
96	Matt Wieters	Bal	C
97	Desmond Jennings	TB	OF
98	Freddie Freeman	Atl	1B
99	Yovani Gallardo	Mil	SP
100	Eric Hosmer	KC	1B
101	Dan Haren	LAA	SP
102	Wilin Rosario	Col	C/1B
103	Johnny Cueto	Cin	SP
104	Neil Walker	Pit	2B
105	Jason Motte	StL	RP
106	Mark Trumbo	LAA	1B/OF
107	Carl Crawford	Bos	OF
108	Jordan Zimmermann	Was	SP
109	Nelson Cruz	Tex	OF
110	Mike Napoli	Tex	C/1B
111	Ian Kennedy	Ari	SP
112	Josh Willingham	Min	OF
113	Ernesto Frieri	LAA	RP
114	Matt Garza	ChC	SP
115	Austin Jackson	Det	OF
116	Tim Lincecum	SF	SP
117	Matt Moore	TB	SP
118	Salvador Perez	KC	C
119	Sergio Romo	SF	RP
120	Dan Uggla	Atl	2B
121	Victor Martinez	Det	C
122	Alexei Ramirez	CWS	SS
123	Andre Ethier	LAD	OF
124	Hiroki Kuroda	NYY	SP
125	Ichiro Suzuki	NYY	OF
126	Joe Nathan	Tex	RP
127	Doug Fister	Det	SP
128	Ike Davis	NYM	1B
129	Glen Perkins	Min	RP
130	Miguel Montero	Ari	C
131	Jake Peavy	CWS	SP
132	Martin Prado	Atl	3B/OF
133	Jayson Werth	Was	OF
134	Tom Wilhelmsen	Sea	RP
135	Lance Lynn	StL	SP
136	Alejandro De Aza	CWS	OF
137	Josh Johnson	Mia	SP
138	Matt Harvey	NYM	SP
139	Adam LaRoche	Was	1B
140	Marco Estrada	Mil	SP
141	Brett Anderson	Oak	SP
142	Fernando Rodney	TB	RP
143	Alcides Escobar	KC	SS
144	Brian McCann	Atl	C
145	Chase Utley	Phi	2B
146	Rickie Weeks	Mil	2B
147	Carlos Gomez	Mil	OF
148	Nick Swisher	NYY	OF
149	Josh Rutledge	Col	SS
150	Jon Lester	Bos	SP
151	Will Middlebrooks	Bos	3B
152	Tommy Hanson	Atl	SP
153	Drew Storen	Was	RP
154	Anthony Rizzo	ChC	1B
155	Greg Holland	KC	RP
156	Tim Hudson	Atl	SP
157	Jeff Samardzija	ChC	SP
158	Ryan Howard	Phi	1B
159	Shaun Marcum	Mil	SP
160	C.J. Wilson	LAA	SP
161	Coco Crisp	Oak	OF
162	Adam Dunn	CWS	1B
163	Erick Aybar	LAA	SS
164	Grant Balfour	Oak	RP
165	J.J. Putz	Ari	RP
166	Angel Pagan	SF	OF
167	Michael Cuddyer	Col	1B/OF
168	A.J. Burnett	Pit	SP
169	David Freese	StL	3B
170	Danny Espinosa	Was	2B/SS
171	Kyle Lohse	StL	SP
172	Nick Markakis	Bal	OF
173	Wade Miley	Ari	SP
174	Alex Rodriguez	NYY	3B
175	Ben Revere	Min	OF
176	Jon Niese	NYM	SP
177	Jaime Garcia	StL	SP
178	Chris Davis	Bal	1B/OF
179	Ryan Dempster	Tex	SP
180	Rafael Betancourt	Col	RP
181	Edwin Jackson	Was	SP
182	Mike Moustakas	KC	3B
183	Joel Hanrahan	Pit	RP
184	Manny Machado	Bal	3B
185	Josh Beckett	LAD	SP
186	Howie Kendrick	LAA	2B
187	Jarrod Parker	Oak	SP
188	Alex Cobb	TB	SP
189	Matt Harrison	Tex	SP
190	Carlos Ruiz	Phi	C
191	Casey Janssen	Tor	RP
192	Ryan Vogelsong	SF	SP
193	Jason Kubel	Ari	OF
194	Jim Johnson	Bal	RP
195	Josh Reddick	Oak	OF
196	Anibal Sanchez	Det	SP
197	Brett Gardner	NYY	OF
198	Huston Street	SD	RP
199	Addison Reed	CWS	RP
200	J.J. Hardy	Bal	SS
201	Brandon Morrow	Tor	SP
202	Torii Hunter	LAA	OF
203	Chris Capuano	LAD	SP
204	Rafael Soriano	NYY	RP
205	Lorenzo Cain	KC	OF
206	Wilton Lopez	Hou	RP
207	Jason Hammel	Bal	SP
208	Justin Ruggiano	Mia	OF
209	A.J. Griffin	Oak	SP
210	Andrew Bailey	Bos	RP
211	John Axford	Mil	RP
212	Kendrys Morales	LAA	1B
213	Everth Cabrera	SD	SS
214	Ted Lilly	LAD	SP
215	Marco Scutaro	SF	2B/SS
216	Yasmani Grandal	SD	C
217	Chris Perez	Cle	RP
218	Drew Stubbs	Cin	OF
219	Todd Frazier	Cin	1B/3B
220	Alfonso Soriano	ChC	OF
221	Homer Bailey	Cin	SP
222	Brandon Moss	Oak	1B/OF
223	Steve Cishek	Mia	RP
224	Jesus Montero	Sea	C
225	Daniel Murphy	NYM	2B
226	Jeremy Hellickson	TB	SP
227	Carlos Marmol	ChC	RP
228	Norichika Aoki	Mil	OF
229	Jon Jay	StL	OF
230	David Murphy	Tex	OF
231	Justin Morneau	Min	1B
232	Phil Hughes	NYY	SP
233	Dustin Ackley	Sea	2B
234	Dexter Fowler	Col	OF
235	Emilio Bonifacio	Mia	OF
236	Mariano Rivera	NYY	RP
237	Wandy Rodriguez	Pit	SP
238	Trevor Bauer	Ari	SP
239	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	Bos	C
240	Chad Billingsley	LAD	SP
241	Tyler Colvin	Col	1B/OF
242	Pedro Alvarez	Pit	3B
243	Mark Buehrle	Mia	SP
244	Jean Segura	Min	SS
245	Trevor Cahill	Ari	SP
246	Frank Francisco	NYM	RP
247	Drew Smyly	Det	SP
248	Cameron Maybin	SD	OF
249	Kevin Youkilis	CWS	3B
250	Kelly Johnson	Tor	2B
251	Andrew Cashner	SD	SP
252	Shelby Miller	StL	SP
253	Rajai Davis	Tor	OF
254	Hisashi Iwakuma	Sea	SP
255	Chris Young	Oak	OF
256	Colby Rasmus	Tor	OF
257	Mark Reynolds	Bal	1B
258	Zack Cozart	Cin	SS
259	Starling Marte	Pit	OF
260	Logan Morrison	Mia	OF
261	Jonathan Lucroy	Mil	C
262	Tyler Clippard	Was	RP
263	Brandon Belt	SF	1B
264	Michael Fiers	Mil	SP
265	Matt Joyce	TB	OF
266	Joaquin Benoit	Det	RP
267	Dayan Viciedo	CWS	OF
268	Bobby Parnell	NYM	RP
269	Mike Minor	Atl	SP
270	Omar Infante	Det	2B
271	Jose Valverde	Det	RP
272	Tommy Milone	Oak	SP
273	Brian Wilson	SF	RP
274	Garrett Jones	Pit	1B/OF
275	Carlos Quentin	SD	OF
276	Ryan Ludwick	StL	OF
277	Vinnie Pestano	Cle	RP
278	J.P. Arencibia	Tor	C
279	Cody Ross	Bos	OF
280	Jhonny Peralta	Det	SS
281	Kyle Seager	Sea	3B
282	David Robertson	NYY	RP
283	James McDonald	Pit	SP
284	Russell Martin	NYY	C
285	A.J. Pierzynski	CWS	C
286	David Hernandez	Ari	RP
287	Jed Lowrie	Hou	SS
288	Andrelton Simmons	Atl	SS
289	Johan Santana	NYM	SP
290	Wilson Ramos	Was	C
291	Michael Brantley	Cle	OF
292	Junuchi Tazawa	Bos	RP
293	Jason Vargas	Sea	SP
294	Ryan Doumit	Min	C/OF
295	Justin Maxwell	Hou	OF
296	Lucas Harrell	Hou	SP
297	Sean Marshall	Cin	RP
298	Alex Avila	Det	C
299	Brandon McCarthy	Oak	SP
300	Jake McGee	TB	RP

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mrcar

12 years ago

Early indeed! Any fear a rookie like Billy Hamilton might be overlooked?

Josh

12 years ago

Good list. Wonder about Brian Wilson and Soria (Romo seems high). Also, for better or worse, someone will nab Profar among the top 200 based on potential alone… (even if he only comes up in August)

Eric

12 years ago

No excuse for not having Tulo in the top 25. Lost any credibility after seeing that.

John

12 years ago

If he could stay on the field…

Andrew

12 years ago

after his crazy 2nd half performance, you still don’t like Chris Tillman

Jesse Sakstrup

12 years ago

@mrcar: If Hamilton begins the year in the majors, I think he would rank higher than Dee Gordon did last year. Hes still got a few things to work on, though.

@Josh: Romo is ranked as if he will begin the year as the closer, but I only projected him for 26 saves. His contributions in ERA and WHIP move him above some of the closers that I have projected for more saves. If Brian Wilson is healthy to begin the year, or if there is any uncertainty to whether Romo is the closer or not, then there is no need to take him that high. We will learn a lot in the coming months.

@Eric: Tulo is at #25, and where you take him is mostly contingent on risk-tolerance. If he stays healthy for 125 games, he will produce top-25 value or higher, but any less than that and you are probably losing value—if he plays 150 games, he is a steal there. Perhaps you could make a case why Tulo should be significantly higher, outlining why the reward far outweighs the risk, rather than making a condescending post about the entire list over the ranking of just one player.

@Andrew: You could definitely make a case for Tillman as a top-300 player, or maybe even a bit higher than that, but he was a bit fortunate to have a .221 BABIP in 2012. Being that he is a flyball pitcher, he should be able to keep a BABIP lower than league average, but his career BABIP is .280 and his batted ball profile deviated little in 2012 from his career averages. His xFIP and SIERA each had his ERA over 4.00, but since he is a heavy flyball pitcher, he should outperform his DIPS some, in the way that a Matt Cain or Jeremy Hellickson does, but that still leaves a worry of heavy regression.

We can take solace in his significant velocity spike and in his moderate swinging strike rate uptick, so there looks to be some room for some more strikeouts as his BABIP comes back up, but I did factor this into my projection. I think he will strikeout over 7.0 per 9 for the first time in his career. There is little difference between pick 250 and 300 in terms of expected value—drafting Tillman anywhere in that range would certainly be defensible, and maybe a bit higher if you believe strongly in him.

Scott

12 years ago

Surprised you ranked Dunn that low. Even though he faltered during the last 6 weeks, and his avg is poor, 80+ runs and 90+ RBI’s that late in the draft is a steal.

Jesse Sakstrup

12 years ago

Possibly, but his batting average is a serious issue. He has struck out nearly 35% of his at PAs over the past two seasons, so a return to the days when he hit .240+ looks unlikely (I have him projected to hit .225). Even with 87 runs, 41 HR, and 96 RBI he finished 161 (21st among 1B) on ESPN’s player rater, and since he only has 1B eligibility, he wasn’t even the 161st most valuable player when positional value is taken into consideration. You may not completely agree with ESPN’s player rater, but my formula valued him similarly and my projections have him as a corner infielder in a 12-team league.

If you play in a league where owners draft power early and stolen bases can be had at a bargain, or easily found on the waiver wire, then his contributions are a bit more valuable, but not all leagues are like that. I would have no issue with anyone who wanted to take him in the 110-130 area, but drafting a guy like that restricts what you can do in other areas of the draft unless you ignore batting average and hope for the best—batting average is a category where you can have more success with that strategy than other categories, it should be mentioned.

Jesse Sakstrup

12 years ago

@Milby: Yeah I like him a lot. He could go 15/15 with a reasonable average. If it becomes clear that he will play everyday, he will move up a bit higher, too.

Milby

12 years ago

Looks like you are buying into Rutledge in a big way. I am too, but was surprised to see you felt the same way.

Jeff Gross

12 years ago

Looks good at first glance, though I think Starlin Castro is ranked a little high. Also think Edwin is a round or 2 too high as well, but thats just cause I dont 100% buy into his 2012. Here’s to hoping Kinsler bounces back major!

Jerry

12 years ago

I recognize Jeter had a fatastic rebound season in 2012 – amazing at the age of 110, but how long ca he continue being reasonably productive? Even now he is only strong in 2 categories (BA and runs), yet he still ranked as the 7th top ss in baseball on your list and the 86th best player overall. Is this expecting too much from Father Time?

Jesse Sakstrup

12 years ago

@Jerry: If Jeter doesn’t fall off completely, I think he will justify that draft position, and will probably be a value. Last year he had a line of 99/15/58/9/.316, which was good for 45th on ESPN’s player rater (which doesn’t give him credit for playing SS) and my formula rated him similarly. I think it is unfair to call Jeter a two category player since the SS position is still among the shallowest positions of all. His runs and batting average would be strong at any position and the other three categories aren’t complete albatrosses in relation to the majority of other shortstops. I am projecting some regression in every category for next year (95/11/54/9/.299), but seeing as the shortstop position is still pretty shallow, I think taking Jeter inside the top 90 is not only justified, but there is also potential profit at that spot.

It is completely understandable and defensible for someone to pass on Jeter at that draft spot if they are worried about a complete collapse.

Drew

9 years ago

Enjoyed looking back at the rankings of this year. IN 2015 fantasy baseball leagues can earn a national ranking and league wide prizes at http://www.statchat.com.

BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG