Hinch Didn’t Blow It – The Nats Won It

Perhaps Will Harris wasn’t such a bad choice in the seventh of Game Seven.

It’s not going to make the pill any easier to swallow, but it wasn’t A.J. Hinch’s fault. He’s not the reason the Astros lost a World Series they seemed destined to win both going in and while they were just eight outs from the Promised Land.

I know Hinch didn’t even think about bringing Gerrit Cole in if he’d decided Zack Greinke had had enough. I questioned the decision myself when first writing about Game Seven elsewhere. And I was really wrong. Just as you are, Astroworld, to lay the loss on Hinch’s head. The Nats beat the Astros, plain and simple. Through no fault of Hinch’s.

He wasn’t even close to having lost his marble. Singular. He actually managed just right in that moment. It’s no more his fault that Howie Kendrick made him look like a fool right after he made his move than it was his fault the Astros couldn’t bury a Max Scherzer who had nothing but meatballs, snowballs, grapefruits, and cantaloupes to throw, two days after Scherzer’s neck locked up so tight it knocked him out of Game Five before the game even began.

Max the Knife could hardly slice butter in his Game Seven start, yet the best the Astros could do against him was an inning-opening solo home run by Yuli Gurriel and an RBI single by Carlos Correa. Remember, as so many love to bleat, the manager doesn’t play the game. Not since the end of the player-manager era.

And I get the psychological factor that would have been involved if Hinch brought Cole in instead of Will Harris. Likely American League Cy Young Award winner in waiting in to drop the hammer and nail down a win and a trophy. The Nats may have spanked Cole and company in Game One but Cole manhandled them in Game Five.

Even the Nats thought Cole was likely to come in if Greinke was coming out and, as their hitting coach Kevin Long said after Game Seven, they would have welcomed it after the surgery Greinke performed on them until the top of the seventh.

You had to appreciate an anyone-but-Greinke mindset among the Nats. Maybe even think within reason that that kind of thinking—never mind Anthony Rendon homering with one out in the top of the seventh—would leave them even more vulnerable once Cole went to work.

Pay attention, class. Cole pitched magnificently in 2019. His ERA in the regular season was 2.19; in the postseason, it was 1.72. But Harris, believe it or not, was a little bit better: his regular season ERA was 1.50 and his postseason ERA until Game Seven was 0.93. These numbers, of course, came in the limited role of a relief pitcher; he was not nearly as valuable a player as Cole was. Still, they are sterling marks to achieve for any pitcher.

Cole led the American League with a 2.64 FIP and Harris finished the season with a 3.15, but all that means is that Harris depends on the Astros’ stellar defense a little bit more than Cole does. And Harris walks into a few more dicey situations in his line of work. Plus, Cole never pitched even a third of an inning’s relief in his entire professional career, major and minor league alike.

Don’t even think about answering, “Madison Bumgarner.” Yes, Bumgarner closed out the 2014 World Series with shutout relief. And it began by going in clean starting in the bottom of the fifth. Bruce Bochy, who may or may not stay retired as I write, didn’t bring MadBum into a man on first/one-out scenario.

When Hinch said after Game Seven that he planned to use Cole to nail the game down shut if the Astros kept a lead, he was only saying he planned to use Cole where he was suited best, starting a clean inning, his natural habitat. Harris is one of his men whose profession involves walking into fires of all shapes and sizes when need be.

It was need-be time in Game Seven. Even Cole acknowledged as much in the breach, when he said postgame, “We just went over the game plan and he laid out the most advantageous times to use me. And we didn’t get to that position.”

Why lift Greinke after only 80 pitches on the night? Greinke historically is almost as tough on a lineup when he gets a third crack at it, but things really are a little bit different in the World Series. Even if Greinke did surrender a single run in four and two-thirds Game Three innings.

He may have performed microsurgery on the Nats through six, but at 36, he’s not the long distance operator he used to be. And he hadn’t exactly had an unblemished postseason before the Series. He’d been battered by the Rays in the division series; he’d been slapped enough by the Yankees in the ALCS.

A Hardball Times Update
Goodbye for now.

As Hinch himself observed after Game Seven ended, “We asked him to do more today than he had done, and pitched deeper into the game more than he had done in the entire month of October. I wanted to take him out a bat or two early rather than a bat or two late.”

And Greinke himself believed the Nats were a lot more tough than their evening full of pre-seventh inning soft contacts at the plate indicated. “They got a good lineup, especially the top of the order,” he told reporters after the game. “It’s tough to get through no matter one time, two times, three times. All of them are tough. Really good hitters up there.”

He got the proof of that when Rendon hammered his 1-0 service halfway up the Crawford Boxes and Juan Soto focused for a walk on 3-1. When it’s winner-take-all you don’t want even a Greinke in a position to fail or for the Nats to be just a little bit better after all.

Hinch wasn’t going to walk his effective but lately erratic closer Roberto Osuna into this moment despite Osuna’s 2.63 ERA, 0.88 walks/hits per inning pitched rate, and league-leading 38 saves on the regular season. Osuna’s postseason ERA was up over 3.50 and his WHIP was reaching 2.00.

So Hinch, one of the most thoughtful and sensitively intelligent managers in the game today, really did reach for his absolute best option in the moment. He was right, I was wrong, and the only thing wrong with Hinch’s move wore a Nationals uniform.

The best teams in baseball get beaten now and then. The best pitchers in the game get beaten. The smartest managers in the game get beaten even when they make the right move. The only more inviolable baseball law than Berra’s Law is the law that says somebody has to lose. And now and then someone’s going to beat the best you have in the moment.

This was not Joe McCarthy starting Denny Galehouse over Mel Parnell with the 1948 pennant on the line.

This was not Casey Stengel failing to align his World Series rotation so Hall of Famer Whitey Ford (whose two shutouts are evidence for the prosecution) could start more than two 1960 World Series games.

This was not Gene Mauch panicking after a rookie stole home on his best pickoff pitcher and thinking he could use Hall of Famer Jim Bunning and Chris Short on two days’ rest in the last days of 1964.

This was not Don Zimmer doghousing Bill Lee, his best lefthander against the Yankees, and choosing Bobby (Ice Water In His Veins) Sprowl over Luis Tiant to stop what became the Boston Massacre in 1978.

This was not John McNamara with a weak bullpen and a heart overruling his head to send ankle-compromised Bill Buckner out to play one more inning at first base in the bottom of the tenth, Game Six, 1986.

This was not Dusty Baker sending an already season long-overworked Mark Prior back out for the top of the eighth with the Cubs six outs from going to the 2003 World Series.

This was not Grady Little measuring Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez’s heart but forgetting to check his petrol tank in Game Seven of the 2003 American League Championship Series.

This was not Mike Matheny refusing to even think about his best reliever, Trevor Rosenthal, simply because it wasn’t yet a “proper” save situation with two on, a rusty Michael Wacha on the mound, and Travis Ishikawa checking in at the plate in the bottom of the ninth in Game Five of the 2014 National League Championship Series.

This was not Buck Showalter getting his Matheny on with the best relief pitcher in baseball (Zach Britton) not even throwing in the pen, never mind ready to go, with two on and Edwin Encarnacion checking in—in a two-all tie in the bottom of the eleventh—against a mere Ubaldo Jimenez at the 2016 American League wild card game plate. Because that, too, just wasn’t, you know, a “proper” save situation.

Hinch did exactly he should have done in the moment if he was going to lift Greinke. He reached for the right tool for the job. So did Mauch, in the 1986 ALCS, with the Angels on the threshold of the 1986 World Series, if he was going to lift Mike Witt but not trust Gary Lucas after the latter plunked Rich Gedman, turning it over to Donnie Moore.

It wasn’t Mauch’s or Moore’s fault that he threw Dave Henderson the perfect nasty knee-high, outer-edge forkball, the exact match to the one Henderson had just foul tipped away, and Henderson had to reach hard and wide again to send it over the left-field fence.

It wasn’t Hinch’s fault that Harris threw Kendrick the best he had to throw, too, a cutter off the middle and at the low outside corner, and watched it bonk off the right-field foul pole. Just ask Harris himself, as a reporter did after Game Seven: “It’s every reliever’s worst nightmare. [Kendrick] made a championship play for a championship team.”

Better yet, ask Correa, the only Astro to have a base hit with a runner on second or better Wednesday night. “The pitch he made to Howie—I just don’t understand how he hit that out,” he said. “It doesn’t add up. The way he throws his cutter, it’s one of the nastiest cutters in the game. Down and away, on the black, and he hits it off the foul pole.”

Now and then even the best teams in the game get beaten. Now and then even the best pitchers in the game get beaten. Sometimes more than now and then. Nobody was better in their absolute primes this century than Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander. Yet Kershaw has a postseason resume described most politely as dubious, and Verlander’s lifetime World Series ERA is 5.68.

And even the smartest skippers in the game lose. Hall of Famer John McGraw got outsmarted by a kid player-manager named Bucky Harris in Game Seven of the 1924 World Series, though even Harris needed four shutout relief innings from aging Hall of Famer Walter Johnson and a bad hop over Giants third baseman Freddie Lindstrom to secure what was previously Washington’s only known major league World Series conquest.

McCarthy and Stengel were at or near the end of Hall of Fame managing careers (Stengel was really more of a caretaker as the 1962-65 Mets sent out the clowns while their front office built an organisation) when they made their most fatal mis-judgments.

And yet another Hall of Famer, Tony La Russa, suffered a fatal brain freeze. His failure to even think about his Hall of Fame relief ace Dennis Eckersley earlier than the ninth-inning save situations cost him twice and would have kept the Reds from a 1990 Series sweep, if not from winning the Series itself.

The Astros had seven men bat with men in scoring position in Game Seven and only Correa nailed a base hit. The Nats went 2-for-9 in the same position. And, for a change, left three fewer men on than the Astros did.

The Astros couldn’t hit a gimp with a hangar door. The Nats punctured an Astro who dealt trump for six innings and made two fateful mistakes in the seventh that the Nats took complete advantage of. Then their best relief option in the moment got thumped with his absolute best pitch.

Because baseball isn’t immune to the law of unintended consequences, either. It never was. It never will be. The Astros were the better team until the World Series. The Nats ended up the better team in the World Series. And that isn’t exactly unheard of, either.

Few teams in baseball have been better than the 1906 Cubs, the 1914 Philadelphia Athletics, the 1954 Indians, the 1960 Yankees, the 1969 Orioles, the 1987 Cardinals, the 1988 and 1990 A’s, the 2003 Yankees, and the 2006 Tigers. They all lost World Series in those years. And two of them (’60 Yankees; ’87 Cardinals) went the distance before losing.

Yet the Nats scored the greatest upset in the history of the Series, and not just because they’re the first to reach the Promised Land entirely on the road. The Astros were Series favourites by the largest margin ever going in. And only the 1914 Braves were down lower during their regular season than the Nats were in late May this year.

But that year’s A’s, the first of two Connie Mack dynasties, weren’t favoured as heavily to win as this year’s Astros.

The Dodgers were overwhelming National League favourites to get to this World Series—until Kendrick’s monstrous tenth-inning grand slam. Then the Cardinals were favoured enough to make it—until they ran into a Washington vacuum cleaner that beat, swept, and cleaned them four straight.

The Astros didn’t have it that easy getting to this Series. The ornery upstart Rays made them win a pair of elimination games first. Then it took Yankee skipper Aaron Boone’s dice roll in the bottom of the ALCS Game Six ninth—refusing to walk Jose Altuve with George Springer aboard and comparative spaghetti-bat Jake Marisnick on deck—to enable Altuve’s mammoth two-run homer off a faltering Aroldis Chapman with the pennant attached.

Hinch made the right move in the circumstance and the moment and the Nats made the righter play. The championship play, as Correa put it. The play for the Promised Land. Soto’s eighth-inning RBI single and Eaton’s ninth-inning two-run single were just insurance policies.

When Hinch said that not bringing in Cole was a mistake he’d have to live with, he shouldered a blame that wasn’t his to shoulder. 


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4 years ago

Thank you for this article! Baseball seems much more prone to second guessing every decision after a loss than many other sports I feel. You can blame Hinch for a lot of things but not for not putting the game away when they had Max on the ropes all evening. You can hardly blame Harris. He made a good pitch. Tough luck that Kendrick was looking for it and put a good swing on it.

4 years ago

There’s no excuse for not going to Cole to start the 8th or 9th in a clean inning, however.

4 years ago
Reply to  ScottyB

Well some kind of agreement had him only coming in to a clean inning which the Astros were leading. So that could be the reason.

4 years ago

Greinke was pitching the game of his life and had thrown only 80 pitches. Two hits and two walks, the second facilitated by a terrible call. There was no good reason to pull him them. Harris was pitching for the 4th time in 5 days (30-25=5, if you’ll count the dates), had given up a homer the day before. Cole was…well, you know. If hinch suspected greinke was tiring and wanted to start cole with a clean inning, fine, put him in to start the 7th. I wouldn’t have, but it would have been a reasonable thing to do. But pulling greinke for harris was not reasonable and not using cole in the 8th or 9th made no sense at all. Who knows if it cost the astros the series. But it was lousy managing.

4 years ago

Every pitcher is rolling until their not.

4 years ago
Reply to  ryanredsox

So by this thinking there’s no point is looking at how a pitcher’s doing, just use some randomizing algorithm to decide when to pull him?

The Guru
4 years ago
Reply to  Jeff Kallman

greinke was throwing one of the top 5 best games in world series history by a pitcher. 1 walk and 2 hits throught 7 innings. Was only at 80 pitches. Couldve thrown a complete game.

Astros took the ball out of hands and panicked. Cost them the game. They put in a guy the nats had seen 5 times this series. The same guy who was knocked out the previous game.

4 years ago
Reply to  The Guru

I guarantee everyone second-guessing Hinch now would also be second-guessing him if he had left Greinke in, and Greinke had blown the lead.

“How could he leave Greinke in when it was OBVIOUS he was tiring?! Harris was right there and ready to go!!!”

You’re all boring, and I don’t believe for a second you have any useful insight or would have done anything smarter than Hinch at that moment. Stop being boring.

4 years ago

That bad ball call was not the only bad call of the night and most of the other ones when Greinke’s way, so way too much has been made of that call. Umps are human, Greinke’s called strike luck got hit with some mean reversion.

Ryan DCmember
4 years ago

All I can say is that as a Nats fan, I was very happy to see Greinke pulled. I don’t think it would’ve mattered who Hinch brought in, as soon as Greinke was gone that game became winnable.

The Guru
4 years ago
Reply to  Ryan DC

yup. was mind boggling they pulled a guy the nats basically only got 1 hit off of the entire game. the hr. Hinch panicked and it cost them.

4 years ago

There should be no doubt that Cole was/is a better pitcher than Harris. Harris’s ERA advantage is overwhelmed by the much smaller sample size, as well as other problems using it with relievers, such as inherited runners. But the biggest reason why starters and relievers are not comparable is that it’s so much easier to pitch as a reliever. No 3rd (or 2nd) time through the order and no need to throw less than max effort to pace oneself. It might be reasonable to figure Cole as likely to be more than a run (per 9) better than Harris.

4 years ago
Reply to  kds

The bigger error may have been having that lead in the ALW and never trying Cole out of the pen, as the Dodgers did for all their starters.

4 years ago

There’s also the question of if Scherzer was the right pitcher and Davey Martinez’s decisions. That’s a more interesting article to me.

4 years ago

I heard a pretty convincing argument in the Oct. 31 Baseball Rabbi podcast that Harris was not a good choice because the middle of the order Nats hitters had seen a lot of his cutter in the series. He was effective in games 1, 3, and 4, but not in Games 6 and 7. Kendrick was facing him for the fourth time in nine days when he hit his Game 7 winning homer. Rendon was seeing him for the fourth time in eight days when he hit his big homer in Game 6. Is that comparable to the third time through the order? During the regular season, relievers don’t face hitters that much in a compressed period of time.

But yeah, he threw a good pitch and Howie hit it out. Nats fans are definitely glad Hinch made that decision, whether it was the right one or not.

Marc Schneider
4 years ago

Let’s be honest. It’s baseball, there’s a lot of randomness, and whether a managerial decision is right or wrong often depends on results which, themselves, are often random. As a Nats fan, I was glad to see Greinke go, but I would have pulled him after Rendon’s home run, not because of some statistical analysis but because he had not pitched past the fifth inning in weeks. It was reasonable, to me, for Hinch to think Greinke was about to lose it and I think he was correct to say, better one batter too early than one too late. I actually do think he was one batter too late, regardless of whether or not it was a bad call. I do think bringing Harris in again was problematic because, as people have pointed out, he had pitched so much and had given up a home run the game before. But, let’s face it, it all could have gone a different way; if Kendrick’s ball drifts another foot foul, maybe the entire game is changed.

I agree with FS54, the reason the Nats won is that the Astros blew opportunities earlier to break the game open. I have no empirical data to support this, but I suspect the runners left on base in baseball is the equivalent to turnovers in football; the teams with the most generally lose. It was certainly true in this World Series. And, even as a Nats fan, I want to be honest.

But, essentially, baseball is a game where randomness prevails. Hinch may have made a mistake in how he handled his pitchers, but it wasn’t egregious. It just wasn’t the Astros’s night. If Springer’s rope early in the game falls in instead of being caught be Soto, it might have been a completely different result. I’m happy it worked out that way; the Nats have certainly had the opposite happen in the past. But one managerial decision didn’t decide the game.