PI, PI, feed me PI
PI for $29? No not that pie, but PI—short for Player Index, which is a new and quite wonderful innovation from the folks over at Baseball Reference.
Every so often, about once a year by my count, a landmark baseball website is launched that changes the way we think about and do baseball analysis. In 2005 it was Fangraphs that wowed us with its fancy charts and daily game logs of LI and WPA; last year Hit Tracker provided detailed home run distance data and allowed us to see which player clubbed the ball the farthest; this year I reckon the accolade will go to Baseball Reference’s PI. Why am I so certain?
Well, baseball uber-legend, Sean Forman, who is related to George Forman incidentally, has spent the last few months hunkered down in front on his computer slapping a monkey-friendly web-based front-end on Retrosheet’s data mothership. Yep, all 60 season’ worth. That’s right; you no longer need three degrees from MIT to be able to manipulate play-by-play data. What is more is that Sean charges a miserly $29 for access to PI. Want to know who has the longest number of at-bats without walking, or in how many consecutive games a player has tripled, or what Carlos Beltran’s OPS was between June 12 and August 16, 2006? PI will tell you the answer in seconds.
Amazing, eh? Okay, so I made the George Forman thing up, but everything else is true, I swear. If you haven’t got $29 I urge you to beg, borrow, steal, sell your grandmother—whatever you must do, do it now.
Anyway, as you may have guessed I am a fully paid up member of the PI club and thought that to justify the heinous expense I’d try to get at least one article from it.
So, with no more ado here are is an octet of interesting things that I found with PI. Enjoy.
1. Most consecutive games where a team has given up at least one home run
Team StreakStart Streak End Games W L HR SEA 06/07/2004 03/08/2004 26 7 19 54 HOU 14/05/2001 12/06/2001 26 12 14 51 CHW 26/08/1999 15/09/1999 20 4 16 35 MIL 11/05/1999 30/05/1999 19 8 11 40 LAD 29/08/1997 19/09/1997 19 8 11 33 PHI 17/05/2006 04/06/2006 18 7 11 30 MIL 30/05/2003 19/06/2003 18 8 10 33 KCR 28/08/2001 23/09/2001 18 7 11 30 CHW 30/07/1999 17/08/1999 18 8 10 32 FLA 30/08/1998 18/09/1998 18 4 14 33 PIT 15/04/1996 04/05/1996 18 8 10 27 KCR 27/06/1979 15/07/1979 18 4 14 33
Not surprisingly the leader board is peppered with teams playing in the home run happy days of the late 1990s and 2000s. In fact, the most aged team on the list is the 1979 Royals who had a streak of 18 consecutive games where the ball left the yard. Not surprisingly their record was a paltry 4-14 in that stretch. To show you how impressive (or unimpressive) a feat that was back in the day, the Royals’ tally wasn’t bettered until the Dodgers saw 19 homers sail over the fence in 1997.
The Astro and Mariners share the lead with 26 consecutive games where there was at least one ripsnorter. How impressive a total is this? Let’s run the math. Assuming that hitting a home run is a binomial event then the probability of scoring at least one home run a game is roughly 66%. So for 26 consecutive games the probability is less than 0.002% from the start of any potential 26 game streak. Pretty darn impressive if you ask me.
2. Longest team streak for a team scoring ONLY one home run a game
Team StreakStart Streak End Games W L SDP 02/08/2001 14/08/2001 11 6 5 TOR 06/04/2004 17/04/2004 10 3 7 SFG 05/07/1992 16/07/1992 10 8 2 KCR 01/08/1975 10/08/1975 10 8 2 ARI 08/05/1998 17/05/1998 9 3 6 BAL 31/08/1997 08/09/1997 9 3 6 NYY 23/08/1993 01/09/1993 9 4 5 SEA 12/06/1986 21/06/1986 9 5 4 CLE 23/08/1963 30/08/1963 9 3 6
This should not be confused with the antithesis of the previous streak. Here we’re looking at the number of consecutive games where a team clubs ONLY one home run. This list isn’t the domain of teams plying their trade in the drug-fuelled 1990s. Although the Padres, who lead with 11, secured the record in 2001, teams from the 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s, and 00s are all represented in the top nine. Special mention should probably go to those pesky Royals who once more appear on this list in 1975—the glory days really have gone AWOL.
Anyway, let’s get our binomial calculator out again and calculate the odds. The probability of scoring only one round-tripper in a game is 37%, which makes the probability of doing that in 11 straight games an odds-defying 0.002%, which is, err, unlikely.
Oh, and in case you were wondering, the longest streak for a team scoring AT LEAST one home run a game is the 2003 Texas Rangers at 27.
3. Number of consecutive games for a pitcher without issuing a walk
PI also allows us to look at individual hitter or pitcher streaks, as well as team streaks. An ability to issue few walks is obviously good, unless you are soft-tossing easy home run fodder down the middle of the plate. I have limited the above list to starting pitchers only, otherwise it’d be dominated by random LOOGYs and other specialist set-up guys who face few batters per game meaning that they quickly rack up impressive no-walk totals. Any guesses for who comes out top? Maddux anyone?
Player StreakStart Streak End Games W L SO HR ERA Bill Fischer 07/08/1962 26/09/1962 11 2 8 18 7 4.06 Greg Maddux 25/06/2001 07/08/2001 9 8 1 45 3 3.03 Javier Vazquez 01/05/2005 04/06/2005 7 3 2 41 4 3.42 David Wells 06/09/2002 16/04/2003 7 6 0 36 4 1.87 Jimmy Key 20/09/1989 29/04/1990 7 3 2 29 4 5.45 Randy Jones 21/05/1976 18/06/1976 7 5 1 14 5 2.4 Dick Donovan 20/06/1963 20/07/1963 7 2 3 12 9 5.68 Jon Lieber 02/09/2006 28/09/2006 6 3 2 22 7 4.33 David Wells 24/08/2004 18/09/2004 6 5 0 28 6 3.07 Brian Tollberg 16/07/2001 22/08/2001 6 3 2 24 6 4.71 Greg Maddux 09/06/1995 06/07/1995 6 4 0 36 1 0.96 Bob Tewksbury 20/06/1993 17/07/1993 6 4 1 21 2 2.45 Orel Hershiser 11/08/1991 16/09/1991 6 2 0 18 1 3.52 La Marr Hoyt 13/07/1983 07/08/1983 6 5 1 24 6 4.23 Don Drysdale 18/08/1966 06/09/1966 6 1 3 21 3 3.86
Wrong.
A journeyman called Bill Fischer tops our list with a streak of 11. Who, exactly? As you may have guessed reading the rest of his stat line, Fischer isn’t the most impressive pitcher to have stepped onto the mound in the last 50 years; his career ERA 4.34 doesn’t compare too well to an overall league ERA of 3.92 when he pitched. Soft-toss he did because in this 11-game streak he had a 1-8 win-loss record, struck out fewer than two batters per game and gave up seven home runs. Ouch.
It’s no surprise to see finesse pitchers such as Greg Maddux and David Wells on the list, twice each in fact. Greg’s record streak of nine was set in 2001 when his powers were starting to wane but, boy, was he pitching well, as an 8-1 record, 45 strikeouts and only three homers allowed attest to. Did you know that Maddux’s career BB/9 rate is 1.8, but since 2001 it has been below 1.5? Who says control doesn’t improve with age?
4. Number of consecutive 10+ K games
Player StreakStart Streak End Games W L BB SO HR Pedro Martinez 19/08/1999 09/04/2000 10 8 1 11 130 2 Randy Johnson 13/04/2001 13/05/2001 7 3 2 13 90 5 Pedro Martinez 15/04/1999 18/05/1999 7 6 1 13 84 1 Nolan Ryan 19/05/1977 16/06/1977 7 4 2 45 90 3 Randy Johnson 31/07/2002 25/08/2002 6 5 0 14 79 3 Randy Johnson 25/04/2000 21/05/2000 6 3 1 11 71 6 Randy Johnson 20/07/1999 16/08/1999 6 3 1 11 65 4 Randy Johnson 19/06/1998 16/07/1998 6 4 2 10 74 5 Pedro Martinez 03/06/1997 30/06/1997 6 2 2 15 72 3 Nolan Ryan 25/09/1972 18/04/1973 6 5 1 25 76 1 Johan Santana 20/06/2004 11/07/2004 5 3 2 8 58 4 Pedro Martinez 12/05/2001 04/06/2001 5 3 1 7 59 3 Pedro Martinez 25/06/2000 28/07/2000 5 3 0 6 58 5 Randy Johnson 24/09/1999 14/04/2000 5 5 0 4 56 5 Randy Johnson 28/08/1998 18/09/1998 5 5 0 9 63 0 Curt Schilling 15/08/1997 06/09/1997 5 3 0 6 58 1 Pedro Martinez 14/08/1997 04/09/1997 5 2 2 14 59 4 Randy Johnson 09/06/1993 30/06/1993 5 4 1 14 60 3 Nolan Ryan 22/08/1989 12/09/1989 5 1 3 15 58 2 Dwight Gooden 27/08/1984 17/09/1984 5 4 1 10 65 1 J.R. Richard 16/09/1979 10/04/1980 5 3 1 10 63 1
Hey, this is a fun list. What we are looking at here are hurlers who have recorded the most consecutive 10-strikeout games—the elite power pitchers. If you go to a game and see a pitcher mow down 10 you’re impressed; if you see that same pitcher do it 10 times on the bounce you’ll probably need a slap round the face with icy water. It has happened folks. Yes, you heard correct. When Pedro Martinez was at his most dominant in 1999 & 2000 he had 10, yes count them, 10 consecutive games in which he struck out more than 10 batters. Wow. His K/9 over that period was an astonishing 15.3!
That isn’t the only time Pedro appears. He is also tied for second, and third, and fourth … you get the picture. Actually, studying this list gives us a great idea of who the all-time uber-dominant power pitchers are. The Big Unit, Martinez and Nolan Ryan are serial representatives. In fact, only three players have had a consecutive streak of six or more … those three players have done it a jaw-dropping 10 times combined.
We know that the league K/9 rate has consistently grown over time so perhaps it’s surprising that there aren’t a few more recent seasons on the list. The most recent entry was Johan Santana’s strike-fuelled 2004 season when he had a five-game streak for 10 or more strikeouts—his only appearance. Commentators and analysts often compare the dominance of Santana to that of Martinez. Based on this list it’s discussion over.
5. The shutout king
Player StreakStart Streak End SHO IP H BB SO Don Drysdale 14/05/1968 04/06/1968 6 54 27 9 42 Orel Hershiser 05/09/1988 23/09/1988 5 45 26 8 31 Bob Gibson 06/06/1968 26/06/1968 5 45 21 5 35 Luis Tiant 19/08/1972 04/09/1972 4 36 16 7 31 Gaylord Perry 06/09/1970 19/09/1970 4 36 15 3 20 Ray Culp 13/09/1968 25/09/1968 4 36 18 8 43 Luis Tiant 28/04/1968 12/05/1968 4 36 14 7 35 Ray Herbert 01/05/1963 14/05/1963 4 36 15 3 22
This list is dominated by older players. That shouldn’t be surprising given the changes in pitcher use over time. Had the Retrosheet database not stopped in 1957 I suspect Don Drysdale wouldn’t even have made the top 20. As things stand Drysdale holds the record with a streak of six. There must have been something in the water in 1968 since four out of the eight highest shutout streaks were in that year. One standout performance is that of Orel Hershiser and his legendary 1998 season where he went 23-8 with an ERA of 2.26. In that time he had 15 complete games and eight shutouts, five of which were consecutive. Hershiser was the first man to throw more than four consecutive blanks in 16 years.
6. Most hitless batter since 2000
Let’s round off our octet by looking at some of the achievements of our nation’s hitters. One limitation on data access is that PI has a 30-second timeout. While that is enough time to parse all pitching records since 1957, it is hopelessly inadequate when it comes to hitters. This is further compounded by my writing this in a God-forsaken third world county where carrier pigeon would be faster than the internet. With that in mind I restricted these data from 2000 to 2006.
Player StreakStart Streak End Games AB Teams Alberto Castillo 16/06/2001 17/07/2001 9 22 TOR Brad Ausmus 20/06/2006 30/06/2006 8 31 HOU Scott Spiezio 15/04/2005 13/08/2005 8 27 SEA Yorvit Torrealba 30/08/2005 10/09/2005 7 21 SEA Nook Logan 09/08/2005 02/09/2005 7 19 DET Juan Castro 11/06/2005 22/06/2005 7 20 MIN Brook Fordyce 04/07/2004 06/08/2004 7 22 TBD Brandon Phillips 27/05/2003 04/06/2003 7 27 CLE Damion Easley 23/04/2003 15/05/2003 7 21 TBD Jack Wilson 01/05/2002 10/05/2002 7 25 PIT Andy Sheets 16/04/2000 19/05/2001 7 21 BOS-TBD John Mabry 26/09/2000 06/04/2001 7 22 SDP-STL Torii Hunter 23/04/2000 30/04/2000 7 24 MIN
This is not a list that you want to be on. Alberto Castillo, who tops this list, didn’t have the most glittering offensive career with an overall batting line of .222/.295/.296 (no, that is not a typo). If Mario Mendoza hadn’t been born we could be talking about the Castillo line right now. Also not a surprise is the presence of Astros catcher Brad Ausmus, who is standing proud in joint second place—though his career year of .275/.365/.418 is passable compared to others, I suppose.
Scott Spiezio is also worth an honorable mention. His finest year with the timber certainly wasn’t 2005, as a line of .064/.137/.149 tells. Although he only had 47 at-bats all season he still managed a run of 29 without making contact or taking a trot to first. Oh, one other comedy factoid with which to impress your friends is his OPS+ that year … an impressive -27 (as computed by Baseball Reference).
7. Most games with at least one stolen bag since 2000
Player StreakStart Streak End Games SB CS Corey Patterson 27/05/2006 05/06/2006 9 11 0 Chone Figgins 27/09/2005 03/04/2006 6 7 0 Jose Reyes 17/07/2005 23/07/2005 6 8 0 Luis Matos 01/10/2001 05/10/2001 6 6 0 Dave Roberts 24/09/2006 28/09/2006 5 6 0 Carlos Beltran 10/08/2005 19/08/2005 5 5 0 Torii Hunter 18/04/2005 22/04/2005 5 6 0 Scott Podsednik 23/08/2003 27/08/2003 5 6 0 Brian Roberts 30/06/2003 05/07/2003 5 6 0 Roger Cedeno 06/09/2002 10/09/2002 5 5 0 Alfonso Soriano 21/07/2002 27/07/2002 5 5 1 Juan Pierre 07/05/2001 12/05/2001 5 5 0 Tony Womack 07/08/2000 12/08/2000 5 7 0
You might remember this one because Corey Patterson set the record last year at a canter (no pun intended). He managed to bag-nab in an impressive nine consecutive games—which is 50% more than the next highest since 2000. Although we restricted this list to seasons later than 2000 those with an eidetic memory will recall that Paterson co-holds this record with Ricky Henderson.
This list doesn’t hold many surprises with the usual speed merchants like Pierre, Soriano, Beltran and Hunter, jostling for position near the top.
Hey, is that Tony Womack I see on the list? Yep. I would have given him more chance to appear on the preceding list rather than this one; not because he is slow (he isn’t), but because I could never imagine him getting on base in five consecutive games. Who next, Cristian Guzman?
Before I get a slew of e-mails salivating over Womack’s stolen base prowess consider this: Out of all the players who have swiped more than 300 bags in their career, Womack has the fourth-highest success percentage.
8. The extra-base king in six-division play history
For this question I was able to extend the analysis back to the early 1990s.
Player Streak Start Streak End Games 2B 3B HR Chipper Jones 26/06/2006 16/07/2006 13 8 1 6 Morgan Ensberg 08/04/2006 21/04/2006 11 5 1 8 Bobby Abreu 07/05/2005 18/05/2005 11 4 0 9 Bill Mueller 30/04/2003 15/05/2003 11 8 1 3 Paul O'Neill 22/07/2001 01/08/2001 10 6 0 4 Cliff Floyd 12/07/2001 21/07/2001 10 5 1 7 Richard Hidalgo 03/09/2000 12/09/2000 10 9 1 5 Ken Griffey 19/07/1993 29/07/1993 10 2 0 8 Wily Mo Pena 07/04/2005 21/04/2005 9 6 0 5 David Ortiz 19/04/2004 29/04/2004 9 9 0 2 Ben Davis 25/07/2002 25/08/2002 9 5 1 4 Todd Hollandswor18/04/2001 27/04/2001 9 9 1 2 Scott Spiezio 16/06/1999 17/08/1999 9 6 0 4 Shawn Green 17/07/1999 25/07/1999 9 6 0 4 Bobby Abreu 13/06/1998 21/06/1998 9 7 1 1 Darin Erstad 07/04/1998 18/04/1998 9 6 1 4 Brady Anderson 02/08/1997 13/08/1997 9 7 1 3 Jeff Bagwell 16/05/1997 25/05/1997 9 5 0 6 Harold Baines 04/05/1997 17/05/1997 9 11 0 2 Sandy Alomar 28/09/1996 13/04/1997 9 6 0 6
Woo-hoo! If you didn’t know that I am a Braves fan you do now. As with the Patterson example, you may remember Chipper returning from the DL and single-handedly excavating the Braves from a disastrous 3-20 slump last year. Again this list contains the usual suspects with offensive juganoughts like Ortiz, Ensberg and Abreu near the top. Perhaps Abreu is a bit of a surprise as he is more noted for his on-base prowess than his power. Indeed, in 2005, the year of his entry he only slugged .474, with 24 homers. I guess that’s why they call it a streak.
Every list throws up an aberration and this is no exception. Todd Hollandsworth, whom I didn’t know could hit, let along hit for power, sneaks onto this list. According to Baseball Reference in 2001 his line was an eye-popping .368/.408/.667 at Coors Field. I know Coors is a hitter’s park but that’s insane. Closer inspection reveals he only played in 33 games, which may explain a thing or two. Still, don’t bother with Bonds and Balco, get the Feds into the Centennial State! Denver ain’t called Mile High City for nothing.
Final Words
Guess what? I had a ton of fun writing and researching this article. It is amazing what you can find with just a little work given the tools available today. This article barely scratches the surface of what Sean is trying to do with PI. It was only launched in late 2006, and according to his site there are still a bunch of things he wants to add. I, for one, can’t wait.
Are you feeling hungry? Go and eat some $29 PI.
References & Resources
I’m not the only person to have been consuming PI over the last couple of week. It would be only fair to mention Ryan Armburst’s diary entry at Beyond the Boxscore, which is similar to what I did here. Imagine my annoyance when I saw that having already penned my article a couple of weeks ago I spied Ryan’s entry. Although Ryan published his note first I’d like to think that I had the idea before him! Even if I didn’t only one of our factoids overlaps—the 10 K pitcher streak. I thought about changing it but it is probably the most interesting factoid so didn’t.
Either way we all owe a debt of gratitude to Sean Forman at Baseball Reference and all the folks at Retrosheet who work tirelessly to make these data available.
Also I want to say a quick thank you to David Gassko, who helped me with a couple of stats questions. Any errors that remain are mine.