Scoring on the Sacrifice Fly
“The better the gambler, the worse the man“. – Publius Syrus, Latin writer from the first century B.C.
Two weeks ago I took a look at how often runners score from third base on fly balls caught by outfielders. What I found was that:
I concluded that article by taking a look at who caught those fly balls in order to see if it told us anything about the quality or reputation of that arm. What I found was that those outfielders with reportedly better arms tend to be more intimidating, resulting in fewer chances taken by opposing third base coaches.
Well, since I showed data for fielders, it’s only right (and because inquiring minds wanted to know) that I do the same for the base runners. However, this time I expanded the data set to include the six-year period of 2000-2005; the previous article’s data set only spanned the previous three years.
Know When to Hold ‘Em
First let’s take a look at those runners who were held least often when perched on third base in a sacrifice fly opportunity.
Name Field Opp Scores OA Hold% Succ% Jimmy Rollins CF 26 25 1 0.000 0.962 Jose Vidro CF 17 16 1 0.000 0.941 Jim Edmonds CF 15 14 1 0.000 0.933 Jose Cruz Jr. CF 15 14 1 0.000 0.933 Kenny Lofton CF 15 14 1 0.000 0.933 Albert Pujols CF 14 14 0 0.000 1.000 Brian Roberts CF 14 14 0 0.000 1.000 Trot Nixon CF 14 13 1 0.000 0.929 Roberto Alomar CF 13 13 0 0.000 1.000 Cliff Floyd CF 13 13 0 0.000 1.000 Scott Rolen CF 13 13 0 0.000 1.000 Fernando Vina CF 13 13 0 0.000 1.000 Lance Berkman CF 13 12 1 0.000 0.923 Jose Macias CF 13 12 1 0.000 0.923 Sammy Sosa CF 13 12 1 0.000 0.923
This list includes all those players with 10 or more opportunities who were sent every time the ball was hit to center. What you should notice is that individual players, even over a six-year stretch, don’t get that many opportunities. That means that small sample size caveats apply. You’ll also note that the list contains both players like Jimmy Rollins, Kenny Lofton and Brian Roberts who are generally considered fast and some who are of average speed like Albert Pujols, Cliff Floyd and Scott Rolen. This probably indicates that this list is for the most part determined by opportunity than actual base running skill.
The following list shows those who were sent every time when the ball was hit to one of the corner outfield positions.
Name Field Opp Scores OA Hold% Succ% Carlos Guillen Corner 23 22 1 0.000 0.957 Bernie Williams Corner 20 20 0 0.000 1.000 Corey Koskie Corner 18 17 1 0.000 0.944 Shannon Stewart Corner 16 15 1 0.000 0.938 Dmitri Young Corner 16 16 0 0.000 1.000 Jermaine Dye Corner 15 14 1 0.000 0.933 Brian Jordan Corner 15 14 1 0.000 0.933 Carlos Febles Corner 14 13 1 0.000 0.929 Geoff Jenkins Corner 14 12 2 0.000 0.857 Gary Sheffield Corner 14 14 0 0.000 1.000 Craig Monroe Corner 13 13 0 0.000 1.000 Aaron Boone Corner 12 11 1 0.000 0.917 Doug Glanville Corner 12 11 1 0.000 0.917 Reed Johnson Corner 12 12 0 0.000 1.000 Jose Reyes Corner 12 12 0 0.000 1.000 Michael Barrett Corner 11 11 0 0.000 1.000 Jose Guillen Corner 11 10 1 0.000 0.909 Felipe Lopez Corner 11 11 0 0.000 1.000 Junior Spivey Corner 11 10 1 0.000 0.909 Doug Mientkiewiz Corner 10 10 0 0.000 1.000 Jolbert Cabrera Corner 10 10 0 0.000 1.000
Like the previous list, this one is a mixed bag of players with speed, like Carlos Febles and Jose Reyes, and those without, like Dmitri Young and Aaron Boone.
And of course we’d be remiss if we didn’t show those who were held up most often. First in center…
Name Fielded Opp Scores OA Hold% Succ% Andy Fox CF 10 5 1 0.400 0.833 Carl Everett CF 11 7 0 0.364 1.000 Adam Kennedy CF 14 9 0 0.357 1.000 Pat Burrell CF 12 8 0 0.333 1.000 Jorge Posada CF 12 8 0 0.333 1.000
And then in the corners…
Name Fielded Opp Scores OA Hold% Succ% Jim Thome Corner 17 6 2 0.529 0.750 Carlos Delgado Corner 18 9 0 0.500 1.000 Richie Sexson Corner 14 7 0 0.500 1.000 Geoff Blum Corner 12 6 0 0.500 1.000 Javier Lopez Corner 11 6 0 0.455 1.000
In the second table, and to a smaller extent in the first, we begin to see that those runners who have a bit of trouble getting down the line are likely not being sent home as often. Carlos Delgado, for example, earned the distinction of being the worst base runner in the past six years according to my base running framework as mentioned in The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2006.
Know When to Run
But probably more interesting are leaders and trailers in success percentage—that is, the percentage of times they scored when sent. Those players with more than 15 opportunities in center and 20 at the corners who were never caught include:
Name Fielded Opp Scores OA Hold% Succ% Johnny Damon CF 28 26 0 0.071 1.000 Mike Cameron CF 25 24 0 0.040 1.000 Ray Durham CF 22 20 0 0.091 1.000 Ichiro Suzuki CF 22 19 0 0.136 1.000 Luis Castillo CF 22 17 0 0.227 1.000 Juan Pierre CF 21 19 0 0.095 1.000 Carlos Beltran CF 21 16 0 0.238 1.000 Shawn Green CF 19 17 0 0.105 1.000 Jeff Kent CF 19 16 0 0.158 1.000 Jeff Bagwell CF 19 14 0 0.263 1.000 Paul Konerko CF 18 16 0 0.111 1.000 Garret Anderson CF 18 14 0 0.222 1.000 Placido Polanco CF 18 14 0 0.222 1.000 Rafael Furcal CF 17 16 0 0.059 1.000 Jason Kendall CF 17 14 0 0.176 1.000 Derrek Lee CF 17 13 0 0.235 1.000 Eric Young CF 16 15 0 0.063 1.000 Alex Rodriguez CF 16 12 0 0.250 1.000
Name Fielded Opp Scores OA Hold% Succ% Julio Lugo Corner 36 25 0 0.306 1.000 Kenny Lofton Corner 32 25 0 0.219 1.000 Rafael Furcal Corner 31 24 0 0.226 1.000 Carlos Lee Corner 31 21 0 0.323 1.000 David Eckstein Corner 31 19 0 0.387 1.000 Derek Jeter Corner 28 26 0 0.071 1.000 Ray Durham Corner 28 22 0 0.214 1.000 Cristian Guzman Corner 27 22 0 0.185 1.000 Mark Kotsay Corner 27 22 0 0.185 1.000 Jeff Kent Corner 25 21 0 0.160 1.000 Bobby Abreu Corner 25 20 0 0.200 1.000 Barry Bonds Corner 25 18 0 0.280 1.000 Michael Young Corner 24 20 0 0.167 1.000 Mike Young Corner 24 20 0 0.167 1.000 Jacque Jones Corner 24 19 0 0.208 1.000 Brian Giles Corner 24 18 0 0.250 1.000 Carlos Beltran Corner 23 20 0 0.130 1.000 Ron Belliard Corner 22 19 0 0.136 1.000 Ronnie Belliard Corner 22 19 0 0.136 1.000 Royce Clayton Corner 22 19 0 0.136 1.000 Joe Randa Corner 22 18 0 0.182 1.000 Chipper Jones Corner 22 16 0 0.273 1.000 Juan Encarnacio Corner 21 15 0 0.286 1.000
The tops of these lists are clearly dominated by faster players, with an occasional slower player like Carlos Lee thrown into the mix.
But there were those who were not so successful…
Name Fielded Opp Scores OA Hold% Succ% Jay Payton CF 12 8 3 0.083 0.727 Fred McGriff CF 11 9 2 0.000 0.818 Andy Fox CF 10 5 1 0.400 0.833 Edgar Renteria CF 16 11 2 0.188 0.846 Royce Clayton CF 15 12 2 0.067 0.857
Name Fielded Opp Scores OA Hold% Succ% Jim Thome Corner 17 6 2 0.529 0.750 Kevin Mench Corner 11 6 2 0.273 0.750 B.J. Surhoff Corner 13 7 2 0.308 0.778 BJ Surhoff Corner 13 7 2 0.308 0.778 Mike Piazza Corner 12 7 2 0.250 0.778 Alex Sanchez Corner 11 7 2 0.182 0.778 Jeff Cirillo Corner 16 11 3 0.125 0.786 Melvin Mora Corner 21 15 4 0.095 0.789 Brent Mayne Corner 13 8 2 0.231 0.800 Ruben Sierra Corner 13 8 2 0.231 0.800 Todd Zeile Corner 12 8 2 0.167 0.800
The first list here is interesting because it is really a mixed bag with Jay Payton and Fred McGriff together. Presumably the reason for this is more related to the bad fortune of these players in running when the outfielder makes a perfect throw. The second list, however, is filled with notoriously slow runners.
Incidentally Melvin Mora led the majors by getting nabbed five times at the plate (four times from a corner outfielder and once from a center fielder) during the six-year period.
The Dealin’s Done
So what, if anything, do all these lists tell us? Because of the small sample sizes it’s not wise to try and draw too many conclusions. But with that said, we might infer the following:
To finish let me reiterate one of the points I made in the previous article with a different twist. The very high success rates on sacrifice flies are an indication that coaches probaby don’t send runners as often as they should. I mentioned in the previous article that this might be chalked up to the human propensity to be risk averse. However, in thinking it over I believe there may also be a more subtle reason as well.
What if bang-bang plays at the plate on sacrifice fly opportunities are relatively rare? Instead, what if most opportunities result in the runner being safe by a mile or getting nailed by 10 feet? If that were the case, and I believe you can make an argument that it is despite only having anecdotal evidence, then those failures would be better remembered and carry an increased weight in the minds of the fans, the media, the manager and maybe even the third base coach himself. The end result is a coach who is not much of a gambler.