Strike Zone Dominance in Context (Dazzy and Pedro!)
Who has been the best strikeout pitcher of all time?
That’s an easy one, right? Just look it up: Nolan Ryan blows everyone else away with his career total of 5,714. Or, on a per-inning basis, it would be Randy Johnson, with the best single-season K/9 rate among starting pitchers, with 13.41 in 2001. The Big Unit also holds the career K/9 mark, with 11.12.
But wait! Not so fast, Mr./Ms. Didn’t-Think-it-Through! That easy, simple question isn’t really easy or simple at all … in fact, yes, it’s a trick question!
Ryan and Johnson are both terrific strikeout pitchers, of course. But each has pitched in eras with strikeout rates overall quite a bit higher than the historical norm. There are a number of reasons for the long-term trend toward increasing strikeouts, but chief among them is the simple fact that over time, fewer and fewer batters have devoted much effort toward avoiding the strikeout. Rightly or wrongly (and there’s good reason to think that they’re generally correct), modern players and teams have increasingly decided that the cost-benefit yield of preventing strikeouts per se isn’t worth much. The typical modern hitter is more prone than hitters of yore to take a full rip with two strikes, and the typical modern manager is more prone than managers of yore to stock his lineup with such hitters.
So, the best strikeout pitchers of the modern era — flamethrowers Ryan and Johnson heading the class — have racked up staggering, unprecedented strikeout totals. But without considering their K rates within the context of league-wide norms, we can’t tell if these pitchers are in fact the greatest strikeout pitchers of all time, in comparison to their contemporaries. To answer that question requires a painstaking contextual analysis.
Exquisite Research To The Rescue
Fortunately for us, a tireless researcher has come along and done the work! Bob Evans of Woodstock, Illinois (who goes by the handle of Dr. Memory over at Baseball Think Factory) has compiled a magnificent database. This mother lode of fascinating information includes major league pitchers’ strikeout rates, and their walk rates, and their strikeout/walk rates, for both individual seasons and careers, going all the way back to 1871 – and all of them expressed as a value relative to league average. A pitcher who is perfectly consistent with his league norm receives a score of 100 (achieving 100% of the league average rate); better than the league norm yields a value of greater than 100, and worse yields less than 100. We can call these stats K+ for the league-normalized strikeout rate, BB+ for the league-normalized walk rate, and KBB+ for the league-normalized strikeout/walk rate.
The K+ Story: Prepare to be Dazzled
So how do Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson perform in this context? Ryan’s career K+ was 178 – in other words, 78% better than his typical peer. That’s a tremendous mark, but it’s only fifth best all-time. Here’s the list of Top Ten Career K+, for pitchers facing at least 5,000 batters:
1. Dazzy Vance 1915-1935 216 2. Rube Waddell 1897-1910 190 3. Randy Johnson 1988-2004 182 4. Amos Rusie 1889-1901 179 5. Nolan Ryan 1966-1993 178 6. Toad Ramsey 1885-1890 174 7. Pedro Martinez 1992-2004 171 8. Sandy Koufax 1955-1966 169 9T. Dizzy Dean 1930-1947 163 9T. Lefty Grove 1925-1941 163
(I confess I had never heard of Toad Ramsey before encountering this list; he was quite the intriguing American Association supernova.)
That’s right, the best career strikeout pitcher of all-time, when viewed in league-norm context, is Dazzy Vance. It’s no contest: Vance completely dominates Ryan, Johnson, and everyone else.
In 1924, Vance had the greatest single-season league-normalized strikeout performance ever. Fanning 262 in 309 innings – in a National League full of contact hitters, in which only one other pitcher struck out more than 86 batters – Vance’s K+ for 1924 was 290. The burly right-hander had three other seasons that are among the top ten best K+ of all-time. Here are the Top Ten Single Season K+ performances, among pitchers throwing at least 200 innings:
1. Dazzy Vance 1924 290 2. Rube Waddell 1902 284 3. Dazzy Vance 1925 279 4. Bobby Mathews 1873 278 5. Dazzy Vance 1928 242 6. Lefty Grove 1926 241 7. Cy Seymour 1898 239 8. Rube Waddell 1900 238 9. Pedro Martinez 1999 233 10. Dazzy Vance 1923 228
We see that Randy Johnson, despite holding seven of the top ten single-season marks for K/9, doesn’t have a season that cracks the top ten all-time in K+. The Big Unit’s greatest K+ year was 1995, at 216, which ranks 16th on the all-time list. Nolan Ryan’s best K+ season, by the way, was 215 in 1976.
Let’s Control Ourselves Now
The other side of the strikeout coin is, of course, the base on balls. As with strikeout rates, walk rates certainly haven’t remained constant throughout history. The leaderboard of fewest walks-per-inning performances is totally dominated by 1870s and 1880s pitchers: nine balls for a walk would have that effect. In order to really find out who the best control artists of all-time have been, we have to control for league context, which BB+ happily does for us. The top ten career marks for BB+, among pitchers facing at least 5,000 batters, reveals an interesting mixture of old-timers and moderns:
1. Bob Tewksbury 1986-1998 229 2. Babe Adams 1906-1926 215 3. Deacon Phillipe 1899-1911 213 4. Brad Radke 1995-2004 204 5T. Rick Reed 1988-2003 203 5T. Tiny Bonham 1940-1949 203 7. Jon Lieber 1994-2004 199 8. Bret Saberhagen 1984-2001 195 9. Dick Hall 1955-1971 193 10T. Robin Roberts 1948-1966 190 10T. Fritz Peterson 1966-1976 190
The Tewkster! The Tewksmeister! Tewksburyrama!
The single season control artist top ten list, again among pitchers with at least 200 innings, incorporates a broad range of history as well:
1. Christy Mathewson 1913 448 2. Christy Mathewson 1914 440 3. Greg Maddux 1997 411 4. Babe Adams 1920 384 5T. Bob Tewksbury 1992 381 5T. Bob Tewksbury 1993 381 7. LaMarr Hoyt 1985 370 8. David Wells 2003 369 9. Tiny Bonham 1942 339 10. Red Lucas 1933 327
We’re familiar with how amazing Maddux’s control was at his peak, as well as that of Tewksbury, Hoyt, and Wells. Mathewson in those golden twilight years of his must have been painting with a micron-width brush.
See the Zone, Be the Zone, Dominate the Zone
The most interesting context of all in which to consider strikeouts and walks isn’t only their occurrence relative to league norms, but also their occurrence relative to one another. I like to call this the phenomenon of “Strike Zone Dominance.” A pitcher might just lay the ball into the zone, and thus scrupulously avoid walks, but be hit very hard. Or a pitcher might feature the most nasty wicked unhittable stuff, but be unable to control it, and allow hitters to just wait out the base on balls.
Thus the most impressive pitching feat of all – the truest essence of pitching effectiveness – is the ability to consistently throw pitches within the strike zone, but which can’t be hit. A batter who knows the pitch is going to be called a strike if he doesn’t swing, but who isn’t able to make contact if he does swing, is a batter in a heap of trouble. A pitcher who exercises this kind of command is demonstrating Strike Zone Dominance.
So, factoring in the context of fluctuating league-wide strikeout and walk rates over the years, what pitcher has dominated the strike zone best of all? For single season performance among pitchers with at least 200 innings, we need look no further than the Fenway Park of recent years: Pedro Martinez had the two greatest years of all time, with a KBB+ of 531 in 2000, and 504 in 1999.
Here’s the rest of the single season KBB+ top ten list:
3. Walter Johnson 1913 499 4. Curt Schilling 2002 494 5. Christy Mathewson 1908 475 6. Greg Maddux 1997 446 7. Cy Young 1901 434 8. Jim Whitney 1884 420 9. Ben Sheets 2004 414 10. Cy Young 1905 412
An impressive list of names, no doubt. If you’re like me, it causes you to take a fresh look at Grasshopper Jim Whitney. And, wow: Ben Sheets really is turning into something special, isn’t he?
Taking a look at the greatest career KBB+ performers, who else but Clarence Arthur Vance should move to the head of the class:
1. Dazzy Vance 1915-1935 238 2. Christy Mathewson 1900-1916 228 3. Pedro Martinez 1992-2004 227 4. Curt Schilling 1988-2004 223 5. Walter Johnson 1907-1927 221 6. Dizzy Dean 1930-1947 212 7. Lefty Grove 1925-1941 211 8. Deacon Phillippe 1899-1911 209 9. Bret Saberhagen 1984-2001 208 10T. Dennis Eckersley 1975-2001 207 10T. Cy Young 1890-1911 207
We’ve been lucky enough to witness Pedro, Schilling, Saberhagen, and Eckersley as they exhibited their Strike Zone Dominance. Considering these familiar images, this list provides us a vivid sense of what it must have been like to watch, not only Vance, but Mathewson, Johnson, Dean, Grove, and Young. And if you’re like me, Deacon Phillippe has just earned new respect.
Forget the Good, How About Just the Bad and the Ugly
As enjoyable as it is to marvel at the greatest performers in any regard, it’s almost as much fun to consider the worst. (Let’s be honest: sometimes it’s more fun.) Here for your voyeuristic pleasure are a few worsts.
Worst Single Season K+: 1871-1900: Bill Stearns 1873 21 1901-1919: Slim Sallee 1919 33 1920-1946: Ernie Wingard 1924 35 1947-1972: Steve Kline 1972 40 1973-1992: Ross Grimsley 1977 43 1993-2004: Ricky Bones 1993 47 Worst Career K+: 1. Benny Frey 1923-1936 42 2. Jack Dunn 1897-1904 49 3. Jack Russell 1926-1940 56 4. Kirk Rueter 1993-2004 58 5. Sherry Smith 1911-1927 59 6T. Lary Sorenson 1977-1986 60 6T. Sloppy Thurston 1923-1933 60 8T. Bill Carrick 1898-1902 62 8T. Bob Purkey 1954-1966 62 8T. Jim Barr 1971-1983 62 8T. Lew Burdette 1950-1967 62 Worst Single Season BB+, since 1901: 1T. Sam Jones 1955 53 1T. Randy Johnson 1991 53 3. Nolan Ryan 1977 54 4. Gene Krapp 1911 55 5T. Pete Schneider 1918 56 5T. Sam McDowell 1971 56 5T. Nolan Ryan 1976 56 8. Snake Wiltse 1902 57 9T. Randy Johnson 1992 58 9T. Bob Brown 1932 58 Worst Career BB+: 1. Tommy Byrne 1943-1957 63 2T. Ed Donehy 1895-1903 67 2T. Bob Turley 1951-1963 67 4. Ed Crane 1884-1893 68 5. Doc Scanlan 1903-1911 69 6T. Hugh Daily 1882-1887 70 6T. Nolan Ryan 1966-1993 70 8T. Mickey McDermott 1948-1961 71 8T. Eric Plunk 1986-1993 71 8T. Johnny Vander Meer 1937-1951 71 Worst Single Season KBB+, since 1920: 1. Dick Errickson 1940 33 2T. Sugar Cain 1933 35 2T. Ernie Wingard 1924 35 4. Ted Wingfield 1925 42 5T. Jamey Wright 1998 45 5T. Hugh Mulcahy 1937 45 7T. Ray Starr 1943 47 7T. Ross Grimsley 1977 46 9. Milt Gaston 1926 47 10. Mike Torrez 1973 48 Worst Career KBB+: 1. Jamey Wright 1996-2004 53 2. Hugh Mulcahy 1935-1947 57 3. Benny Frey 1923-1936 58 4. Jean Dubuc 1908-1919 60 5T. Jack Dunn 1897-1904 61 5T. Ownie Carroll 1925-1934 61 7. Dick McBride 1871-1876 62 8T. Jersey Bakely 1883-1891 63 8T. Elmer Jacobs 1914-1927 63 8T. Mike LaCoss 1978-1991 63 8T. Ed Killian 1903-1910 63
If nothing else, these lists make clear that Kirk Rueter and Jamey Wright are – well, everything we’ve feared they were.
Okay, Back to the Good
Why don’t we wrap this up with some actives-only Best lists? Remember, to qualify, the single season minimum is 200 innings, and the career minimum is 5,000 batters faced.
Best Single Season BB+, active pitchers: 1. Greg Maddux 1997 411 2. David Wells 2003 369 3. Brian Anderson 1998 316 4. Greg Maddux 1996 307 5. Greg Maddux 2001 303 6T. Brad Radke 2004 302 6T. David Wells 2000 302 8T. Greg Maddux 1995 301 8T. Brad Radke 2001 301 10. Curt Schilling 2002 285 Best Career BB+, active pitchers: 1. Brad Radke 204 2. Jon Lieber 199 3. David Wells 179 4. Brian Anderson 177 5. Greg Maddux 173 6. Jose Lima 170 7. Mike Mussina 166 8. Shane Reynolds 165 9. Curt Schilling 160 10T. Paul Quantrill 145 10T. Terry Mulholland 145 Best Single Season K+, active pitchers: 1. Pedro Martinez 1999 233 2T. Pedro Martinez 2000 216 2T. Randy Johnson 1995 216 4. Randy Johnson 1997 204 5. Randy Johnson 2001 202 6. Randy Johnson 2000 197 7. Randy Johnson 1993 195 8. Randy Johnson 1999 193 9. Randy Johnson 1998 190 10. Randy Johnson 2002 180 Best Career K+, active pitchers: 1. Randy Johnson 182 2. Pedro Martinez 171 3. Roger Clemens 149 4. Curt Schilling 139 5. Tom Gordon 135 6. Hideo Nomo 133 7. John Smoltz 129 8. Mike Mussina 122 9T. Chan Ho Park 116 9T. Jason Schmidt 116 Best Single Season KBB+, active pitchers: 1. Pedro Martinez 2000 531 2. Pedro Martinez 1999 504 3. Curt Schilling 2002 494 4. Greg Maddux 1997 446 5. Ben Sheets 2004 414 6. Greg Maddux 1995 394 7. Curt Schilling 2001 358 8. Randy Johnson 2004 331 9. Roy Halladay 2003 330 10. David Wells 2000 320 Best Career KBB+, active pitchers: 1. Pedro Martinez 227 2. Curt Schilling 223 3. Mike Mussina 202 4. Jon Lieber 192 5. Brad Radke 180 6. Randy Johnson 179 7. Greg Maddux 175 8. David Wells 174 9T. Roger Clemens 171 9T. Shane Reynolds 171
One parting thought: how amazing has been the career progression of The Big Unit, Randy Johnson, from one of the all-time very worst control pitchers in his early years, to one of the best Strike Zone Dominators in his late career?
References & Resources
I’ve just scratched the surface here. Feel free to have fun exploring Dr. Memory’s database to your heart’s content. You can find it at Chris Jaffe’s terrific website:
http://runsupportindex.blogspot.com
All thanks to Chris, and especially to Bob Evans (alias Dr. Memory)!