The 2015 Season Preview in Play Indices

Editor’s Note: With Opening Day nearly here, it’s time to preview the season. Welcome to Season Preview Week!

As Opening Day rapidly approaches, the baseball world has a great deal of players and storylines to look forward to for the 2015 season. The Hot Stove managed to explode several times throughout the winter, as literally hundreds of players have changed teams since Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval caught the last out of the World Series — including Sandoval himself!

However, for this preview, we’re bringing you some fun stuff to look forward to that doesn’t quite fit in any hot take or headline. With the help of Baseball-Reference’s tremendously tremendous Play Index and fantastically fantastic FanGraphs custom leaderboards, here are seven of our favorite statistical quirks that we’re looking forward to monitoring in 2015, as well as some other interesting little nuggets for the statistically inclined to keep their eyes on.

Death, Taxes and Mark Buehrle

There are very few constants in life and even fewer in baseball. In the meat grinder that is major league baseball, careers can change drastically at the drop of a hat without notice or warning. This sense of volatility is even more relevant when discussing pitchers, as the unnatural overhand motion this sport decided upon way-back-when makes pitchers significantly more susceptible to injury than other players.

For these reasons, dependability has become a highly valued commodity; teams are willing to shell out the big bucks for guys who can simply “eat innings.” While it seems like more and more pitchers are forced to go under the knife these days, over the last 14 years one man has been able to defy odds, physics, and the theories of modern medicine by throwing 200 innings each and every one of those years. There are three things you can depend on in life: Death, Taxes, and Mark Buehrle throwing 200 innings.

Since breaking into the big leagues with the White Sox toward the end of the 2000 season, Buehrle has been the most consistent pitcher in baseball — and it’s not particularly close. Since 2001 (his first full season) Buehrle has thrown 200 innings every single season. In the entire history of professional baseball only five pitchers have thrown 14 consecutive 200 innings seasons:

• Gaylord Perry: 1966-1980 (15 seasons)
• Don Sutton: 1966-1980 (15 seasons)
• Greg Maddux: 1988-2001 (14 seasons)
• Phil Niekro: 1967-1980 (14 seasons)
• Mark Buehrle: 2001-2014 (14 seasons)

You probably notice that the four non-Mark Buehrle pitchers on this list are all Hall-of-Famers. (Also isn’t it awesome that Perry, Sutton and Niekro were doing this all at the same time? Also Greg Maddux was amazing). Buehrle probably won’t get into the Hall as it currently stands, but if he throws 200 innings for two or three more years he might have a chance. Buehrle certainly isn’t the pitcher he once was — his velocity has dropped into the low/mid 80s in recent years — but he has successfully adapted his pitching style to his physical abilities. This possible record-breaking story line hasn’t gotten a lot of hype, but make sure you keep an eye open to see if 36-year-old Buehrle can rage against Father Time and continue his reign of consistency.

Jon Lester’s Longest No-Hitter

One of the biggest stories of this offseason was the Cubs’ signing Jon Lester for five years and 155 million doll hairs. There have been many debates about whether Lester will be able justify the massive contract as he gets into his mid-30s. One thing is for sure: Jon Lester sucks at hitting. Here are some facts about that:

• Lester is the active leader for most plate appearances without a hit at 43. In his career, Jon Lester is 0-for-36 with a walk, giving him a slash line of .000/.026/.000.
• His one walk was against Guillermo Mota.
• He sits fourth all-time for most career plate appearances without a hit, behind Randy Tate, Bo McLaughlin and Tony McKnight.
• The longest streak to start a career without a hit is held by Joey Hamilton, who went hitless for his first 57 PAs. Lester is 24th on that list.

Considering that Lester is about to play his first year in the National League, you’d have to put money on him getting his first hit at some point this season. If he doesn’t however, he has a chance to absolutely fly by Tate and Hamilton for the title of “Most Inept Hitting Pitcher of All Time.” There’s something extremely comforting knowing that Jon Lester, professional athlete, Jon Lester, man who gets paid 155 million bucks to perform athletic feats, is no better hitter at the major league level than we would be.

Jumbo Jumbo Jumbo

Every year at the beginning of spring training we are fed stories about how so and so is in the “Best Shape of His Life.” While many players roll into spring training talking about their slim new physique, I think it’s safe to say that Jumbo Diaz, the Reds’ 315-pound pitcher, hasn’t been spending too much time touting his figure.

Before last season, Diaz, 31, had spent 12 seasons grinding away in the minor leagues. After gracing so many in the minors with his massive magnificence, Diaz finally got the call in mid-June and spent the rest of the year posting some very respectable numbers out of the pen for the Reds. While Diaz’s weight is certainly his defining characteristic (the man goes by Jumbo), there’s one huge problem with it: It’s not high enough. Let me explain…

According to Baseball-Reference, which records height and weight data on almost everyone, Jumbo Diaz is only the second heaviest major leaguer of all time. Sure, it’s hard to trust weight data (not everyone weighs exactly an increment of five) but taking the info at face value is the best we can do. Who’s the true Goliath of the diamond, you ask? The answer to that question is Walter Young, who got 37 PAs for Orioles at the end of the 2005 season. Young, who weighed in at 320, only had one career home run and it was off R.A. Dickey. If anybody has access to the video of baseball history’s heaviest player jacking a dinger off a knuckleballer, please make that accessible to the public ASAP.

What I’m looking forward to this year is whether Jumbo will be able to add on five or more pounds to snatch the heavyweight title from the thick, fleshy hands of Walter Young. If Jumbo can stick to a diet of McDonald’s, Taco Bell, and whatever the hell Jesus Montero was eating before this year, he’s got a really good shot to put those pounds on.

Replacing Revere

Last year, Ben Revere did something amazing. With his ninth plate appearance of the year, he passed former Mariners shortstop Tim Johnson for the most plate appearances without a home run in the expansion era. (The expansion era caveat is a must because offenses operated much differently. This is a longer discussion for another day, but just fly with me here).

Others had at one point in time eclipsed Johnson’s mark only to hit a home run at some point later on in their careers. For instance Phillies outfielder Greg Gross had 1,890 dingerless career plate appearances before he finally hit one, the longest stretch to start a career in the expansion era. (Side note: Greg Gross’ Baseball-Reference picture looks like Gary the Stepdad from Jimmy Fallon’s “Ew” bit.) (Other sidenote: We’ve written about this before on our own site, but the second longest over-the-fence-ball-less streak was held by Frank Taveras, who waited 1,779 before he jacked a big fly. Except he didn’t. His first dinger was actually an inside the park home run and Taveras then went an astounding 1,437 more PAs until he finally hit a ball over a fence.)

For the first two months of last season Revere was the king of the powerless, the ruler of the slap hitter, the god of the ground ball, but on May 27 Revere did the unthinkable. With all of his 165-pound frame, Revere turned on a 1-1 inside fastball from Boone Logan and launched rocketed gently dispatched it over the right field wall:

A magically moment for Revere himself, but a horrifying display for the rest of us. There is nothing sadder than watching a fun, bizarre, but irrelevant stat die before your eyes.

So who’s left to pick up where Revere left off? Well James Jones is the active leader with 328 PAs, all of which he acquired last year, but with an improved Mariners team he probably doesn’t get regular opportunities this year. Same thing goes for the guy second on this list: Dan Robertson won’t play a whole lot for the Angels this year. What we need is a young, powerless player with other valuable tools that will allow him to be an everyday player for the foreseeable future.

Braves uber defensive catcher Christian Bethancourt ticks two of those boxes and has started his career with 103 round-tripper-less PAs, but he hit for power in the minors and figures to eventually get hold of one. Young Brewers shortstop Luis Sardinas has 125 PAs without a homer, has well-below-average power, and will probably see some real time for Milwaukee soon, but considering he’ll be playing in the dinger incubator (dingubator?) that is Miller Park, you have to assume he pokes one out.

The perfect man to pick up where Revere left off is therefore Mariners shortstop Chris Taylor. Last year, in his rookie season, Taylor picked up 151 PAs without a big fly. His stats in the minors are slightly concerning, as he ran into 15 dingers in three full years. But he was doing most of that damage in the crazy hitters parks of the California League so we’re not too concerned. We asked a scout who’d seen Taylor a few times in the minors whether he had any power to speak of. We were told to not expect much as Taylor lacks both “the lift and the frame” to launch dingers consistently at the highest level. And since power comes back slowly after wrist injuries, he’ll be even further in the hole. So all hail Prince Taylor as the new ruler of this ridiculous stat. Maybe one day, with luck and with doubles, he’ll follow in the footsteps of King Revere.

LaTroy Hawkins’ Last Ride

In February, Rockies reliever LaTroy Hawkins announced that he will be retiring after the 2015 season. Whenever Hawkins makes his first appearance, the 42-year-old will become the 29th pitcher of the Expansion Era to pitch in 21 different seasons. While Hawkins has obviously always been a serviceable pitcher, his remarkable longevity is what stands out. The only black ink on Hawkins’ Baseball-Reference page is in the earned runs category — in 1999, his last year as a starter, Hawkins led the American League in earned runs allowed with 129 in 174.1 innings pitched. That was also the year Hawkins set the record for most strikeouts in a season with an ERA of 6.66, an achievement that parallels Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hit streak and Cy Young’s 750,000 career innings as records that will surely never be broken.

But Hawkins has a great chance to reach a slightly more revered benchmark in 2015: With 36 more appearances, Hawkins will replace Trevor Hoffman as the pitcher with the 10th most games pitched in baseball history. If he matches his 2013 games pitched total of 72, Hawkins could move past Dennis Eckersley for a spot in the top five, but it’s a much surer bet that he can catch Hoffman. Hawkins finished 2014 with exactly 1,000 career games pitched, two fewer than Hall-of-Famer Goose Gossage, 22 fewer than not-Hall-of-Famers Jose Mesa and Lee Smith, and 35 behind probably-Hall-of-Famer Hoffman. Hawkins enters the season as the closer, with John Axford or Adam Ottavino being the most likely fallback options for Colorado if Hawkins struggles.

Assuming health (which no one should ever do for a pitcher), we can project Hawkins for somewhere between 50 and 70 appearances in 2015. So when can we expect him to pass Hoffman? Since becoming a reliever in 2000, Hawkins has averaged about 63 appearances per season (excluding 2010, the one year he was hurt). Here’s when his 36th appearance came in each of those seasons:

• 2000: July 13
• 2001: July 3
• 2002: July 6
• 2003: June 25
• 2004: June 17
• 2005: July 25
• 2006: July 1
• 2007: Aug. 2nd
• 2008: Aug. 6
• 2009: July 1st
• 2010: Injured, pitched in only 18 games
• 2011: Aug. 3
• 2012: Aug. 14
• 2013: July 2
• 2014: July 21
• 2015: July 14???

These 14 dates average to approximately July 14…which is the exact date of the 2015 All-Star Game. Hawkins has never made an All-Star Game, and of course, even if he miraculously did make it in his final year, a one-inning stint there wouldn’t count towards his games pitched career total. Our best guess for when Hawkins will pass Hoffman? Let’s go with July 9 against Atlanta, right in the middle of Colorado’s six-game home stand right before the All-Star break. The baseball world eagerly awaits.

Justin Smoak: Hurtling Toward the Record Books

Triples are almost always the result of at least one of these four things: 1) the hitter is really fast; 2) the outfielder has misplayed the ball to some degree, but not enough to convince the hitter or the third base coach to go for the inside-the-park home run; 3) the hitter knowing the outfielder fielding the ball has a relatively weak arm; and 4) a ballpark that is particularly conducive to triples. Triples aren’t exactly commonplace — there has been an average of 0.35 triples per game over the last five regular seasons — but they do happen, and even the slowest players luck into a triple every once in a while:

One active hitter, however, has yet to find such luck: Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak. Acquired from Seattle on a waiver claim in October, Smoak has never quite lived up the lofty prospect status he possessed when he was the centerpiece going back to Seattle in the Cliff Lee trade. With perhaps his last chance at an everyday job, Smoak heads into 2015 a mere 26 plate appearances behind former catcher Johnny Estrada for the major league record for most career plate appearances without a triple. Smoak enters the season as Toronto’s starting first baseman, so we could witness this historic moment at some point during the first two weeks of the season; perhaps Toronto’s home opener on April 13  against Tampa Bay? We can only hope Estrada will be in attendance for this passing of the torch.

It’s fair to note that Smoak’s remarkable career start of 2,218 plate appearances without a triple isn’t quite the longest streak of plate appearances without a triple. That record belongs to one Mark McGwire, who went triple-less for 5,763 regular season plate appearances from June 20, 1988 to August 1, 1999. Paul Konerko made a nice run at McGwire’s record when he went 5,016 plate appearances without a three-bagger from May 17, 2000 to June 6, 2008.

In terms of players who still might catch McGwire or Konerko, here are the top five longest active streaks:

1. Russell Martin – 3,611 plate appearances; Last triple: September 11, 2007
2. Alberto Callaspo – 2,436 plate appearances; Last triple: May 25, 2010
3. Smoak – 2,218 plate appearances; Last triple: : None
4. Victor Martinez – 1,957 plate appearances; Last triple: Sept. 19, 2010
5. Yadier Molina – 1,907 plate appearances; Last triple: May 23, 2011

Note that these are regular season numbers only. Martinez did hit a triple in the 2011 playoffs, but the other four don’t have any triples in the playoffs either.

Finally, the five active players with the most career plate appearances without a triple:

1. Smoak – 2,218 plate appearances
2. Welington Castillo – 1,069 plate appearances
3. Devin Mesoraco – 1,026 plate appearances
4. Will Middlebrooks – 894 plate appearances
5. Chris Stewart – 888 plate appearances

Javier Baez

Cubs infielder Javier Baez headed into 2014 as a consensus top 10 prospect in baseball thanks to his elite bat speed and the potential to stick at shortstop. Scouts have always questioned his approach at the plate, due to his tendency to swing out of his shoes early in the count. In each of his first three full seasons of pro ball, Baez’s strikeout rate has steadily increased:

• 2012: 80 games across Low-A and High-A; 321 plate appearances; 21.4 K%
• 2013: 130 games across High-A and Double-A; 577 plate appearances; 25.5 K%
• 2014: 104 games in Triple-A; 434 plate appearances; 29.9 K%

Despite these worrisome swing-and-miss issues, Baez has still produced at an extraordinary level: he’s hit .278/.336/.545 with 76 home runs in 319 career minor league games. The Cubs called him up at the beginning of last August and started him virtually every day for the rest of the season, splitting time between shortstop and second base. Baez went on to post the highest single-season K% in baseball history for anyone with at least 200 plate appearances, a remarkable 41.5 percent. With a 200 plate appearance minimum, four other hitters from 2014 appear near the top of the Worst K% Ever leaderboard, including one of Baez’s teammates.

• 1st: Baez – 229 plate appearances; 41.5 K%
• T-2nd: Mike Olt – 258 plate appearances; 38.8 K%
• T-5th: Jon Singleton – 362 plate appearances; 37.0 K%
• T-10th: Juan Francisco – 320 plate appearances; 36.3 K%
• T-13th: Tyler Flowers – 442 plate appearances; 36.0 K%

Another fun fact via AceballStats on Twitter: over the final two months of 2014, Baez accrued more four-plus strikeout games than Pete Rose or Barry Bonds had in their careers. He also finished the season with 22 consecutive starts with at least one strikeout, a streak he will take into 2015 with his eyes firmly set on the major league record, one that actually belongs to another 2014 hitter: Orioles first baseman Chris Davis, who struck out at least once in 41 consecutive starts from July 3 to Aug. 27. The second longest such streak of 2014 belonged to Singleton, who struck out at least once in all 24 games he played in August.

Don’t get me wrong: Baez is a whole lot of fun, and we all want him to succeed. But he’s striking out at historic rates that will hinder his ability to get to his prodigious power enough to make him worth everyday at-bats at the major league level. Even if his tattoo says otherwise.

Quick Hits, Hitters’ Edition

• Mariners catcher Mike Zunino had a tremendously strange 2014 season. He posted the fourth lowest OPS in history for a season with 20+ home runs. He became the ninth cather in major league history to hit 20+ home runs before his age-24 season. Most spectacularly, Zunino had more hit-by-pitches than unintentional walks, becoming only the 14th hitter (minimum 300 PAs) to accomplish this bizarre statistical oddity.
• Matt Dominguez, Leury Garcia, Junior Lake and David Peralta all finished 2014 with at least 100 consecutive plate appearances without a double. Dominguez owns the longest drought with 137 straight double-less PAs.
• With 1,893 plate appearances, infielder Alexi Casilla currently has the fourth most career plate appearances in history without an intentional walk. Adam Eaton is second among active players with 918 PAs sans free pass.
• A’s outfielder Coco Crisp hasn’t been hit by a pitch since May 9, 2011, 2,088 plate appearances ago. Other lengthy active streaks without a HBP include Joe Mauer (last HBP: 8/23/12), Domonic Brown (last HBP: 4/23/13), and Wilson Ramos (last HBP: 9/11/11).
• The active player with the most career plate appearances without a hit-by-pitch is Pete Kozma with 578.
• Fast person Quintin Berry got into only 10 games for the O’s in 2014, but his perfect stolen base record remains unblemished, as he wasn’t caught on his one attempt of the year. He’s now 25-25 at the major league level. Two other active players who have yet to be caught stealing in their career: Reds shortstop Zack Cozart (11 for 11), and Red Sox outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. (10 for 10).
• Cody Ransom holds the major league record for most career plate appearances without a sacrifice fly, with 859. Active leaders in the category include Martin Maldonado (585), Jonathan Schoop (496) and Ender Inciarte (447). The three longest active streaks without a sacrifice fly belong to Starling Marte (last sac fly: 5/26/13), A.J. Pollock (last sac fly: 4/17/13), and Travis Snider (last sac fly: 9/20/12).
• Of the 47 qualified hitters since 2002 to post a homers-per-fly ball rate of greater than 25 percent, 2014 Jose Abreu had the fifth lowest flyball percentage.
• Joey Votto’s 2010 MVP season was remarkable for many reasons, not the least of which was the fact that he didn’t hit an infield pop-up the entire year. In 2014, three qualified hitters went the whole year without popping up: Joe Mauer, Shin-Soo Choo and Howie Kendrick. And Kendrick did it for the second time — he went all of 2011 with an infield pop-up as well!
• Last year, Brian McCann and Mark Teixeira posted two of the 10 lowest BABIPs since 2000.

Quick Hits, Pitchers’ Edition

• Only Sam McDowell, Walter Johnson and Bert Blyleven struck out more batters through their age-28 season than Felix Hernandez.
• 38-year-old A.J. Burnett has an active streak of 318 consecutive starts with at least one strikeout, the 10th longest such streak in major league history. His last start without a strikeout came on June 30, 2004. With 30+ starts with at least one strikeout in 2015, Burnett could move into the top five. Justin Verlander has the second longest active streak with 261 starts. His last K-less start came on April 28, 2007.
• The longest active streak of starts with at least three strikeouts unsurprisingly belongs to Clayton Kershaw, who has struck out three-plus in 127 consecutive starts, dating back to Sept. 24, 2010. Kershaw’s is the third longest such streak in history, and he has a great chance to pass Randy Johnson’s 136-game streak. Pedro Martinez’s all-time mark of 205 (!!!) straight three-plus strikeout starts is still a ways away.
• The longest active streak of starts with at least five strikeouts also belongs to Kershaw, who’s at 23 consecutive games heading into 2015, but that’s still pretty far down the all-time list.
• The longest active streak of starts with at least eight strikeouts also belongs to Kershaw, who finished 2014 with eight straight starts with eight-plus Ks. Randy Johnson dominates this all-time leaderboard.
• The longest active streak of starts of at least five innings belongs to… Dillon Gee…??? Sure enough, Gee carries a streak of 46 consecutive five-plus inning starts into 2015. James Shields is second with 38. Johnny Cueto is third with 36.
• Last year, 41.2 percent of Tyson Ross’ pitches were sliders – the third highest single-season rate for a starting pitcher in the PITCHf/x era behind only Randy Johnson’s 2004 and 2002 seasons. Madison Bumgarner threw the second highest rate of sliders among starters in 2014 with 35 percent.
• Rays right-hander Alex Cobb threw 38.1 percent changeups in 2014, the fourth highest rate for a starter behind only Tom Glavine’s 2004, 2006, and 2007 seasons. Among starting pitchers who don’t throw a cutter and aren’t R.A. Dickey, Cobb threw the lowest percentage of fastballs in baseball at 41.9 percent.
• Edinson Volquez managed to throw more than 900 major league innings before finally picking off a runner last July (Dee Gordon trying to steal third). However, three active starters enter 2015 with more than 800 career innings and not a single pickoff: Scott Feldman (1,089.2 innings), Phil Hughes (990.1), and Colby Lewis (894).
• Wade Davis enters 2015 with 103 consecutive relief appearances without allowing a home run, the 10th longest such streak in history.
• Randy Choate has an active streak of 424 consecutive relief appearances without allowing a triple, the second longest such streak in history behind Eddie Guardado,who didn’t allow a triple FOR AN ENTIRE DECADE in more than double the innings that Choate has thrown during his streak.
• While Garrett Richards’ FIP and ERA were nearly identical in his breakout 2014 season, he still may have gotten lucky by one measure: he posted the second lowest homer-to-flyball rate HR/FB% since 2002, an astounding 3.9 percent.
• Orioles closer Zach Britton also enjoyed somewhat of a breakout in 2014, one that may have also been helped by a stellar performance in a batted-ball category: he posted the second highest groundball rate for any reliever since 2002.
• And finally, everyone’s favorite 6-foot-10 pitcher (assuming you’re not a diehard Jon Rauch fan),  Chris Young, bested his previous major league records set in 2006 and 2007 for highest single-season flyball rate with an astonishing 58 percent for Seattle. He also became the third qualified starter in major league history to post an ERA under 3.70 with a FIP over 5.00. Chris Young forever.