The Pyramid Rating System: The Results by Paul Moehringer March 15, 2016 No surprise: Barry Bonds ranks near the top of the Pyramid Ratings System. (via Kevin Rushforth) It’s been awhile since my first article back in August, and in that time I’ve been hard at work refining my ranking system. I’ve adjusted the way offensive production is evaluated, readjusted my position requirements and have also included the 2015 season into my overall rankings. I’ve also been working on a few other surprises, which I hope to delve into in future articles, but for now, on to the results. As mentioned in the first article, players were evaluated on a season-by-season basis, with each season being rated on a 20-80 scale that reflects the commonly accepted scale used by MLB scouts. One question I don’t feel gets asked often enough by rating systems developers is how much correlation exists between the player rating and overall team success. Below is a scatter graph of each major league season — starting in 1901 — and the odds that a player’s team won the pennant. Partial and combined seasons were removed, as well as the entire 1994 season. As you can see, there does appear to be a pretty strong — almost linear — correlation between a player’s overall rating and the odds his team will reach the World Series, right up until the highest rating of 80. If a player has a rating of 80, the chance his team will reach the World Series is 25 percent, which is seven percent higher than any other rating. What I believe this suggests is major league baseball might be a bit more like the NBA than people think, where one player can have a significant impact on a team’s odds of winning, provided that player is one of the one or two best players in the game. As it relates to evaluating players all time, the fundamental question we have to ask is: What are we looking for? The answer to this question in my opinion is: Who are the players who most help you win the World Series? The above graph would suggest an increased value attached to peak dominance over career longevity, which the Pyramid Rating System captures. This approach is very different from asking who is the most talented. The most talented player to me would suggest the skill set that goes into making a great major leaguer is always static. One look at the major league record books will tell you the records set tend to be as much a product of the era as they are of the player. The PRS defines who is the most valuable, which is decided as much by the era as it is by the player’s ability. A catcher with a great arm in the 1950s will not have as much value as one in the 1980s simply because there were more bases being stolen in the ’80s than there were in the ’50s. This is reflected in other ways as well. Looking at the MLB league leader in range factor for shortstops, we can see a very clear downward trend over time. Andrelton Simmons gets about two fewer chances per game than Dave Bancroft did. As you would expect, pre-WWII-era shortstops rate much higher defensively than their modern counterparts do. In fact, of the top ten greatest defensive seasons in history according to the Pyramid Rating System, nine of them are middle infielders from before WWII. Only Mark Belanger’s 1975 season cracked the top ten. This graph gets right to the heart of talent versus value. Was Bancroft a better defensive player than Simmons? It’s tough to say. Both were/are arguably the best in their respective eras, so the question of who was more dominant relative to his counterparts also must be asked. In terms of who was more valuable, to me there is no doubt Bancroft’s defensive ability had far more of an effect on the Giants success than Simmons’ defensive ability had on the Braves, and it is simply because Bancroft had more balls hit to him than Simmons did. This is the lens by which players should be looked at all time. When you try to adjust for era and neutralize stats, I feel you turn players into something they never were. I’ve created my own Hall of Fame based on these PRS results. The rules were very simple. A five-year waiting period requirement still was in place, and three players were inducted in even years, two in odd years. I also passed no judgment on players like Pete Rose or Joe Jackson. Whether the two should be inducted is up for endless debate. I have simply included the two as an illustration of the talent needed to get into the Hall of Fame. The only thing I will say on the subject is that the inclusion of Cap Anson — who bet on numerous games throughout his career, as well as being instrumental in the establishment of the “gentleman’s agreement” to keep black players out of the game — shows the only thing the Hall of Fame respects more than the integrity of the game is the grandfather clause. Below is a graph showing the percentage of active players in the league who would later go on to be inducted in the Hall of Fame. Unlike the real Hall of Fame, in my hall of fame the percentage of players who would go on to be inducted rarely drops below four percent and rarely rises above six percent, which demonstrates a lack of basis toward or against any era. Each era is proportionally represented, both in who is inducted in the Hall as well as the overall rankings themselves. Some of the more modern inductees may lead to some head scratching, but the idea of Curt Schilling being considered a borderline HOFer to me is a demonstration of just how stingy voters have become in recent years rather than an actual reflection of his talent. In closing, what’s most important is to treat these rankings more as estimates than absolutes. The difference between the 190th-ranked player (Cole Hamels) and the 215th-ranked player (Jimmy Key) is almost non-existent. Assuming these two players played at the same time, a trade of one for the other wouldn’t have a significant impact on either team’s long-term win-loss record. If the rankings were absolute, it may not be possible for a bad team ever to beat a good one. This type of uncertainty always must be taken into account when looking at results like this. It’s the uncertainty that makes playing the games worthwhile.A Hardball Times Updateby RJ McDanielGoodbye for now. The other thing to stress is how much respect and admiration I have for the players even in the 400s. Even at that level, we’re still talking about guys who were better than 98 percent of the players ever to play the game at the major league level. Just because I have Player X ranked ahead of them does not mean I can’t also appreciate the amount of skill and talent these players had. The further down this list you go, the more blurred the difference between players becomes, and those rankings are far more fascinating than what is at the top. PYRAMID RATING SYSTEM, TOP 100 PLAYERS Name Pos Pri Overall Off Def Babe Ruth CO RF 1 1 787 Barry Bonds LF LF 2 2 141 Willie Mays CF CF 3 6 66 Roger Clemens P P 4 5857 Ty Cobb OF CF 5 3 1257 Rogers Hornsby MI 2B 6 4 57 Ted Williams LF LF 7 5 1955 Walter Johnson P P 8 1758 Honus Wagner SS SS 9 8 41 Randy Johnson P P 10 7680 Alex Rodriguez SS/3B SS 11 11 115 Stan Musial OF/1B 1B 12 9 864 Mike Schmidt 3B 3B 13 19 72 Tris Speaker CF CF 14 12 400 Lefty Grove P P 15 6143 Mickey Mantle CF/1B CF 16 10 968 Albert Pujols 1B/LF 1B 17 18 483 Lou Gehrig 1B 1B 18 7 1808 Hank Aaron RF RF 19 14 439 Eddie Collins 2B 2B 20 15 140 Cy Young P P 21 3362 Greg Maddux P P 22 4269 Rickey Henderson OF LF 23 28 222 Pedro Martinez P P 24 8344 Joe Morgan 2B 2B 25 16 313 Wade Boggs 3B 3B 26 32 178 Nap Lajoie 2B/1B 2B 27 22 116 Jimmie Foxx 1B 1B 28 17 1436 Cal Ripken SS/3B SS 29 39 5 Dan Brouthers 1B 1B 30 13 811 Roger Connor 1B 1B 31 27 233 Pete Alexander P P 32 3365 Mel Ott RF RF 33 21 902 Cap Anson 1B 1B 34 23 269 Roy Halladay P P 35 7992 Ken Griffey CF CF 36 36 182 George Brett CI 3B 37 33 255 Robin Roberts P P 38 2856 Ross Barnes MI 2B 39 75 196 Clayton Kershaw P P 40 4199 Eddie Mathews 3B 3B 41 20 349 Curt Schilling P P 42 6842 Joe DiMaggio CF CF 43 38 524 Tom Seaver P P 44 3788 Bert Blyleven P P 45 6754 Roberto Clemente RF RF 46 72 164 Frank Robinson CO/1B RF 47 26 1209 Ron Santo 3B 3B 48 54 194 Ed Delahanty OF/1B LF 49 24 1552 Mike Mussina P P 50 Johnny Mize 1B 1B 51 35 2515 Mariano Rivera P P 52 Christy Mathewson P P 53 3064 Warren Spahn P P 54 2338 Phil Niekro P P 55 5070 Adrian Beltre 3B 3B 56 91 29 Gaylord Perry P P 57 5695 Jack Glasscock SS SS 58 112 22 Jeff Bagwell 1B 1B 59 45 1714 Carl Yastrzemski LF/1B LF 60 63 259 Arky Vaughan SS/3B SS 61 40 130 Steve Carlton P P 62 3286 Bob Gibson P P 63 2623 Rod Carew 1B/2B 1B 64 46 613 Bob Feller P P 65 4642 Jackie Robinson IF 2B 66 65 86 Kevin Brown P P 67 5784 Johan Santana P P 68 5709 Chase Utley 2B 2B 69 161 102 Ernie Banks 1B/SS 1B 70 64 142 Mike Trout OF CF 71 29 1049 Shoeless Joe Jackson OF LF 72 34 2198 Gary Carter C C 73 119 25 Robinson Cano 2B 2B 74 81 248 Dave Stieb P P 75 Ed Walsh P P 76 4098 Kid Nichols P P 77 3798 Ryne Sandberg 2B 2B 78 51 163 Johnny Bench C C 79 98 71 Jim Bunning P P 80 4339 Duke Snider OF CF 81 47 728 Lou Boudreau SS SS 82 107 16 Bobby Grich 2B 2B 83 84 136 Frank Thomas 1B 1B 84 31 4339 Charlie Gehringer 2B 2B 85 55 99 Chipper Jones 3B/LF 3B 86 44 725 George Davis UT SS 87 89 26 Al Kaline OF RF 88 101 234 Pete Rose UT 1B 89 57 504 Brooks Robinson 3B 3B 90 245 9 Robin Yount SS/CF SS 91 43 125 David Cone P P 92 4922 Andruw Jones CF CF 93 326 11 Alan Trammell SS SS 94 103 50 Reggie Jackson RF RF 95 52 1084 George Sisler 1B 1B 96 71 1316 Wilbur Wood P P 97 8056 Sandy Koufax P P 98 5869 Home Run Baker 3B 3B 99 49 221 Billy Hamilton OF CF 100 53 2030 PYRAMID RATING SYSTEM, HALL OF FAME Year Name Year Name Year Name Year Name 1936 Ty Cobb 1956 Joe Gordon 1976 Joe Kelley 1997 Dwight Evans 1936 Walter Johnson 1956 Bill Terry 1977 Ernie Banks 1997 Rick Reuschel 1936 Honus Wagner 1957 Jesse Burkett 1977 Jim Bunning 1998 Bert Blyleven 1937 Eddie Collins 1957 Joe DiMaggio 1978 Roberto Clemente 1998 Gary Carter 1937 Tris Speaker 1958 Lou Boudreau 1978 Zack Wheat 1998 Jose Cruz 1938 Dan Brouthers 1958 Sherry Magee 1978 Hoyt Wilhelm 1999 George Brett 1938 Nap Lajoie 1958 George Wright 1979 Yogi Berra 1999 Robin Yount 1938 Cy Young 1959 Johnny Mize 1979 Willie Mays 2000 Rich Gossage 1939 Pete Alexander 1959 Bobby Veach 1980 Dave Bancroft 2000 Dale Murphy 1939 Roger Connor 1960 Art Fletcher 1980 Al Kaline 2000 Nolan Ryan 1940 Cap Anson 1960 Paul Hines 1980 Ron Santo 2001 Kirby Puckett 1940 Ross Barnes 1960 Dutch Leonard 1981 Bob Gibson 2001 Lou Whitaker 1940 Ed Delahanty 1961 Ralph Kiner 1981 Juan Marichal 2002 Andre Dawson 1941 Christy Mathewson 1961 Hal Newhouser 1982 Hank Aaron 2002 Ozzie Smith 1941 Babe Ruth 1962 Bob Feller 1982 Frank Robinson 2002 Alan Trammell 1942 Jack Glasscock 1962 Bobo Newsom 1982 Billy Williams 2003 Ryne Sandberg 1942 Shoeless Joe Jackson 1962 Jackie Robinson 1983 Dick Allen 2003 Frank Viola 1942 Ed Walsh 1963 Eddie Plank 1983 Brooks Robinson 2004 Paul Molitor 1943 Rogers Hornsby 1963 Joe Sewell 1984 Vada Pinson 2004 Eddie Murray 1943 Kid Nichols 1964 Fred Clarke 1984 Wilbur Wood 2004 Dave Stieb 1944 Home Run Baker 1964 Ted Lyons 1984 Jim Wynn 2005 Wade Boggs 1944 George Davis 1964 Pee Wee Reese 1985 Willie Davis 2005 Mark Langston 1944 George Sisler 1965 Larry Doby 1985 Harmon Killebrew 2006 Dennis Eckersley 1945 Lou Gehrig 1965 Vic Willis 1986 Jim Fregosi 2006 Carlton Fisk 1945 Billy Hamilton 1966 Jimmy Collins 1986 Willie McCovey 2006 Jimmy Key 1946 Stan Coveleski 1966 John McGraw 1986 Minnie Minoso 2007 Cal Ripken 1946 Harry Heilmann 1966 Ted Williams 1987 Sal Bando 2007 Bret Saberhagen 1946 Dazzy Vance 1967 Willie Keeler 1987 Bobby Bonds 2008 Tony Gwynn 1947 Goose Goslin 1967 Joe Medwick 1988 Reggie Smith 2008 Mark McGwire 1947 Lefty Grove 1968 Richie Ashburn 1988 Luis Tiant 2008 Tim Raines 1948 Sam Crawford 1968 King Kelly 1988 Roy White 2009 David Cone 1948 Wes Ferrell 1968 Rube Waddell 1989 Gaylord Perry 2009 Rickey Henderson 1948 Charlie Gehringer 1969 Stan Musial 1989 Carl Yastrzemski 2010 Roberto Alomar 1949 Bill Dahlen 1969 Bucky Walters 1990 Johnny Bench 2010 Barry Larkin 1949 Bobby Wallace 1970 Charlie Keller 1990 Fergie Jenkins 2010 Edgar Martinez 1950 John Clarkson 1970 Billy Pierce 1990 Joe Morgan 2011 Jeff Bagwell 1950 Hughie Jennings 1970 Duke Snider 1991 Rod Carew 2011 Kevin Brown 1950 Al Simmons 1971 Cupid Childs 1991 Jim Palmer 2012 Kevin Appier 1951 Joe Cronin 1971 Warren Spahn 1992 Bobby Grich 2012 Rafael Palmeiro 1951 Jimmie Foxx 1972 Sandy Koufax 1992 Pete Rose 2012 Larry Walker 1952 Frankie Frisch 1972 Robin Roberts 1992 Tom Seaver 2013 Barry Bonds 1952 Carl Hubbell 1972 Urban Shocker 1993 Reggie Jackson 2013 Roger Clemens 1952 Paul Waner 1973 Pete Browning 1993 Phil Niekro 2014 Greg Maddux 1953 Hank Greenberg 1973 Nellie Fox 1994 Steve Carlton 2014 Mike Mussina 1953 Mel Ott 1974 Bob Johnson 1994 Cesar Cedeno 2014 Curt Schilling 1954 Elmer Flick 1974 Mickey Mantle 1994 Graig Nettles 2015 Randy Johnson 1954 Amos Rusie 1974 Eddie Mathews 1995 Buddy Bell 2015 Pedro Martinez 1954 Arky Vaughan 1975 Ken Boyer 1995 Mike Schmidt 2016 Ken Griffey 1955 Joe McGinnity 1975 Don Drysdale 1996 Ron Cey 2016 John Smoltz 1955 Deacon White 1976 Earl Averill 1996 Keith Hernandez 2016 Frank Thomas 1956 Luke Appling 1976 Heinie Groh 1996 Chet Lemon References & Resources Complete Pyramid Rating System Rankings