The virtual 1968-76 Braves, Astros, and Reds (Part 1: 1967-68)
We’ve undertaken triple-franchise virtual scenarios re-imagining the American League East Division, as well as the NL East, in the late 1960s-early 1970s period. This time we’ll turn our spotlight to a third contemporary theater of competition.
The choice of the Houston Astros as one of our contestants should be rather obvious, given that, as we’ve already explored, the Astros in these years operated one of the all-time great talent-export operations. And if that dynamic is a major focus, then it becomes clear that the Cincinnati Reds need to be included, as well, since they were such a great beneficiary of the Houstonian generosity in the seismic Joe Morgan trade of Nov., 1971.
Our decision to go with the Atlanta Braves to complete this trio may seem less obvious, but it was in these years that veteran General Manager Paul Richards executed a long string of highly questionable transactions and left the franchise in mid-1972 in far worse shape than when he’d taken over in mid-1966.
And it was a big trade between the Braves and Astros that took place in October of 1967 that will compel us to begin this exercise at that point rather than following the 1968 season. So this one will be a great big ol’ nine-parter.
Here’s the status at which we join each franchise:
{exp:list_maker}The Braves, featuring an abundantly talented roster core including the ever-brilliant Hank Aaron, are frustrated at having dropped to 77-85 and seventh place in 1967, their first losing year since 1952.
The Astros, with an impressive expansion-team foundation laid by Richards, seemed to be on the rise in 1966, but are also now frustrated, having dropped back to ninth in ’67 with the pitching staff falling apart.
The Reds, having been burned by the “oops” Frank Robinson trade and fallen to the second division in 1966, came back encouragingly in ’67 to 87-75, in fourth place, led by strong young pitching. {/exp:list_maker}Let the imaginary journey begin!
The 1967-68 offseason: Actual deals we will make
Oct. 20, 1967: The Cincinnati Reds traded players to be named later to the Oakland Athletics for pitcher Ron Tompkins. (On Nov. 21, 1967, the Reds sent outfielder Floyd Robinson and pitcher Darrell Osteen to the Athletics, completing the deal.)
Tompkins is a fairly interesting prospect. Our Reds aren’t sure why Charlie Finley’s A’s are willing to surrender him for this meager price, but we don’t see the downside.
Nov. 21, 1967: The Cincinnati Reds traded outfielder-infielder Tommy Harper to the Cleveland Indians for first baseman Fred Whitfield, pitcher George Culver, and outfielder Bob Raudman.
The multi-talented Harper has had a pretty good run in Cincinnati, but he’s never developed into the star it seemed he would, and on the heels of an injury-marred 1967 season, like actual Reds’ GM Bob Howsam, we’ll decide we have better left field options going forward. Whitfield and Culver project as useful role players; Raudman is a spare part who can be stashed in Triple-A.
Nov. 29, 1967: The Cincinnati Reds traded pitcher Sammy Ellis to the California Angels for pitchers Bill Kelso and Jorge Rubio.
And as Howsam did, we’ll happily take this offering in exchange for the once-exciting-but-now-struggling Ellis before it’s too late.
Dec. 7, 1967: The Atlanta Braves traded third baseman Bobby Cox to the New York Yankees for catcher Bob Tillman and pitcher Dale Roberts.
We’re surprised we can get much of anything in return for the minor league journeyman Cox. As it did to the Wizard of Waxahachie, this package of a backup catcher with some power, plus a grade-B pitching prospect, seems more than fair to us.
The 1967-68 offseason: Actual deals we will not make
Oct. 8, 1967: The Atlanta Braves traded shortstop Denis Menke and pitcher Denny Lemaster to the Houston Astros for shortstop Sonny Jackson and first baseman Chuck Harrison.
All righty then, here we go …
The intense, highly intelligent Paul Richards had taken over as Atlanta GM in mid-1966, and with the Braves finishing a disappointing seventh in ’67, the Wizard of Waxahachie was quick to take action …
The logic of [this] deal is clear, if not its wisdom. Richards wasn’t satisfied with Menke, who was an “offense first” mode of shortstop, a good hitter with limited range in the field. He preferred the style of Jackson, whom Richards had signed and developed when he was running the Houston operation: Jackson was just 23, a little guy with vastly more speed than Menke.
But following a fine rookie year in 1966, Jackson had slumped with the bat in ’67, and moreover, in the field he had great range but was highly error-prone, having committed 37 in ’66 and 35 in ’67, most in the majors both years. It wasn’t at all clear that on balance he was better than Menke. And the other half of the deal was a complete mismatch: Lemaster was a solid starter, while Harrison was a marginal talent, who would be farmed out by the Braves.
Suffice to say, though it pains our Astros to hear it, our Braves aren’t interested.
Nov. 8, 1967: The Cincinnati Reds traded outfielder Art Shamsky to the New York Mets for infielder Bob Johnson.
The normally sharp-trading Howsam committed a head-scratcher here:
This one made little sense at the time. Johnson was a useful ballplayer, one of the best-hitting utility infielders of his (or any other) era. But a utility infielder was all Johnson was, and moreover he would be 32 years old for the 1968 season, while the power-hitting Shamsky would be 26. And while Shamsky had performed poorly in 1967, he’d been so spectacular in a limited role in 1966 that it seemed premature to be exchanging him for someone with so much less future potential.
Jan. 11, 1968: The Cincinnati Reds traded outfielder Dick Simpson to the St. Louis Cardinals for outfielder Alex Johnson.
It makes sense to take an interest in this Johnson. He’d been a flop in two seasons in St. Louis after being predicted for stardom, but he’s still just 25 years old. It would be a good idea to pick him up at a bargain price.
But our Reds don’t think Simpson is a bargain price. He’s another toolsy guy once predicted for stardom, and he’s half a year younger than Johnson. Moreover, he hasn’t flopped in two seasons in Cincinnati; he’s just gathered dust on the bench. We think it’s time to give him an opportunity to play and find out what he can do.
Feb. 8, 1968: The Cincinnati Reds traded catcher Johnny Edwards to the St. Louis Cardinals for catcher Pat Corrales and infielder Jimy Williams.
Once a first-rate catcher, Edwards has put together back-to-back dismal years with the bat. But he’s still a strong defender, and we think as a veteran he’ll offer more than the journeyman Corrales as the backup to mega-prospect Johnny Bench.
Feb. 9, 1968: The Houston Astros traded first baseman Tommy Murray and outfielder Levi Brown to the Chicago Cubs for outfielder-first baseman Lee Thomas.
Murray and Brown are token prospects. But still, unlike actual Houston GM Spec Richardson, our Astros, realistically still a long way from contention, see no point in picking up an over-30 has-been like Thomas.
April 1, 1968: The Atlanta Braves purchased pitcher Stu Miller from the Baltimore Orioles.
And our Braves, much as we’ve always liked Miller, just can’t find roster room for this veteran.
The 1967-68 season: Deals we will invoke
Oct. 8, 1967: The Houston Astros traded catcher John Bateman to the Atlanta Braves for infielder Woody Woodward.
The Astros had force-fed Bateman at the major league level and waited through a long period of struggle before he finally blossomed with the bat in 1966. But he’s thoroughly regressed in ’67, and our Astros have run out of patience.
Our Braves see his power as an asset worth granting a fresh opportunity within the Launching Pad environment of Fulton County Stadium. Our Astros see Woodward, a solid-fielding and light-hitting middle infielder, as fair payment.
Oct. 10, 1967: The Atlanta Braves traded outfielders Mack Jones and Jim Beauchamp and pitchers Jay Ritchie and Ramon Hernandez to the Cincinnati Reds for infielder-outfielder Deron Johnson and outfielder Art Shamsky.
The actual trade made on this date was Jones, Beauchamp, and Ritchie for Johnson alone. We see that as another giveaway by Richards.
So our Braves and Reds will make the deal square by sending the impressive-but-inconsistent young bat of Shamsky along with Johnson to Atlanta, and tossing in an extra marginal reliever to go Cincinnati’s way.
Jan. 11, 1968: The Houston Astros traded outfielder Ron Davis to the St. Louis Cardinals for outfielder Alex Johnson.
Since the Cardinals can’t get Dick Simpson in exchange for Johnson, we’re confident they’d accept our Astros’ offer instead, since they would actually trade Simpson for Davis in mid-1968. Davis is a good defensive outfielder (which Johnson is certainly not) and he delivered a solid year with the bat in 1967, but he projects as no more than a fourth outfielder. Despite Johnson’s splotchy track record, in our circumstance we prefer taking a chance on his upside.
Jan., 1968: The Atlanta Braves traded outfielder Mike Page to the Houston Astros for pitcher Bo Belinsky.
Our Braves have a need for another lefty bullpen arm, and so, what the heck, why not find out what the always-interesting Bo might have to offer? Our Astros already have been there and done that.
Jan., 1968: The Houston Astros traded pitcher Dave Eilers and infielder Leon McFadden to the Cincinnati Reds for pitchers Bob Lee and Jack Baldschun.
And our Astros are in a position to find out if either one of these former ace firemen have anything left.
Feb., 1968: The Houston Astros purchased catcher Merritt Ranew from the California Angels.
We have an opening for a lefty-batting third-string catcher.
March, 1968: The Atlanta Braves sold catcher Bob Tillman to the Minnesota Twins.
Alas, Tillman won’t make our Braves’ cut. It’s plausible that the Twins would take him, given that the No. 2 catcher they actually went with in 1968 was a lowly Rule 5 draftee.
April 2, 1968: The Houston Astros released pitcher John Buzhardt.
Not making the team.
April 3, 1968: The Houston Astros traded first baseman Tommy Murray, outfielder Levi Brown, and cash to the Washington Senators for first baseman Dick Nen.
In reality, the Senators sold Nen to the Cubs on this date. In our scenario, the Cubs still have Lee Thomas to back up Ernie Banks at first base. So we’ll give Washington the minor league roster filler we didn’t trade for Thomas, plus toss in a little cash to get Nen, who’s never hit much but he brings a good glove.
The 1968 season: Actual deals we will make
July 29, 1968: The Atlanta Braves purchased infielder Wayne Causey from the California Angels.
Plugging the roster vacancy created by the season-ending broken hand sustained by third baseman Clete Boyer.
The 1968 season: Actual deals we will not make
May 3, 1968: The Atlanta Braves sold catcher Del Bates to the Baltimore Orioles.
Bates has won our third-string catching job; we aren’t dumping him off.
June 15, 1968: The Houston Astros traded outfielder Ron Davis to the St. Louis Cardinals for outfielder Dick Simpson and pitcher Hal Gilson.
Our Astros already traded Davis to St. Louis.
The 1968 season: Deals we will invoke
April 17, 1968: The Houston Astros signed catcher Johnny Stephenson as a free agent.
April 17, 1968: The Houston Astros released catcher Merritt Ranew.
Stephenson, released by the Cubs, is suddenly available. Although he isn’t much, he’s younger and likely better than Ranew.
June 11, 1968: The Cincinnati Reds traded pitcher Milt Pappas to the Atlanta Braves for pitchers Clay Carroll and Tony Cloninger.
The actual deal included Bob Johnson and Ted Davidson going to Atlanta along with Pappas, and Woody Woodward coming back the other way. We’ll simplify it.
The motivation remains as it actually was: Pappas, Carroll, and Cloninger are all struggling (indeed, in our scenario Cloninger has been demoted to Triple-A), and both sides think a change of scenery couldn’t hurt.
June 14, 1968: The Cincinnati Reds traded pitcher Ramon Hernandez and cash to the Houston Astros for pitcher Wade Blasingame.
A couple of young southpaws struggling big time. See “scenery, change of.”
1968 season results
Braves
Before the season even starts, we receive a blow of bad news: heavy-hitting left fielder Rico Carty has been diagnosed with tuberculosis and will miss the entire season. This creates a particular opportunity for newly-acquired Art Shamsky.
At second base, young Felix Millan will be given his first full-season starting chance. Rookie right-hander Ron Reed makes the pitching staff as a spot starter/long reliever, and Belinsky also wins a job in the bullpen.
1968 Atlanta Braves Won 86 Lost 76 Finished 3rd Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ 1B-3B D. Johnson 29 127 342 27 71 11 1 8 34 35 79 .208 .285 .316 .600 80 2B F. Millan 24 149 570 51 165 22 2 1 33 22 26 .289 .314 .340 .654 96 SS D. Menke 27 150 542 58 137 23 4 9 50 66 85 .253 .335 .360 .695 109 3B C. Boyer 31 71 273 20 62 7 2 4 18 16 32 .227 .275 .311 .586 76 RF H. Aaron 34 160 606 86 174 33 4 29 88 64 62 .287 .354 .498 .852 153 CF F. Alou 33 160 662 74 210 37 5 11 58 48 56 .317 .365 .438 .803 140 LF A. Shamsky* 26 116 345 33 80 13 4 14 43 22 61 .232 .285 .414 .700 108 C-1B J. Torre 27 115 424 47 115 11 2 10 57 34 72 .271 .332 .377 .709 112 1B-LF T. Francona* 34 122 346 33 99 13 1 2 40 51 45 .286 .375 .347 .722 118 UT T. Aaron 28 88 226 19 54 8 2 1 16 17 30 .239 .290 .305 .595 79 OF M. Lum* 22 102 186 20 41 6 2 2 12 11 28 .220 .270 .306 .576 73 IF M. Martinez# 26 75 178 17 40 2 2 0 5 13 15 .225 .276 .258 .534 61 C J. Bateman 27 74 175 16 42 9 0 3 15 11 26 .240 .283 .343 .626 87 IF G. Garrido 27 58 99 9 20 1 0 0 2 3 6 .202 .219 .212 .431 30 C D. Bates* 28 37 65 5 13 2 0 1 4 4 18 .200 .268 .277 .545 64 IF W. Causey* 31 16 37 3 4 0 1 1 3 0 4 .108 .103 .243 .346 1 C W. Hriniak* 25 9 26 0 9 0 0 0 2 0 3 .346 .346 .346 .692 108 3B M. de la Hoz 29 2 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .200 .200 .200 .400 20 Others 12 3 4 0 0 0 0 1 1 .333 .385 .333 .718 117 Pitchers 404 17 49 4 0 3 22 18 152 .121 .144 .153 .298 -11 Total 5523 538 1390 202 32 99 502 436 802 .252 .305 .354 .659 97 * Bats left # Bats both Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+ P. Niekro 29 37 34 15 15 11 2 257 228 83 74 16 45 140 2.59 117 P. Jarvis 27 34 34 14 17 11 0 256 202 82 74 15 50 157 2.60 116 D. Lemaster* 29 33 32 7 11 14 0 224 225 82 72 15 71 144 2.89 105 K. Johnson 35 31 16 1 5 7 1 135 145 58 52 10 25 57 3.47 87 R. Reed 25 29 13 3 8 6 1 121 110 50 43 5 29 70 3.20 95 M. Pappas 29 22 19 3 11 7 0 121 111 36 32 8 22 75 2.38 127 D. Kelley* 28 25 9 1 2 3 1 78 69 29 24 3 36 58 2.77 109 C. Upshaw 25 52 0 0 8 6 14 117 98 41 32 6 24 74 2.46 123 C. Raymond 31 36 0 0 4 5 11 60 56 21 19 4 18 37 2.85 106 B. Belinsky* 31 25 3 0 3 4 1 59 48 29 23 3 33 54 3.51 86 C. Carroll 27 10 0 0 0 1 0 22 26 15 12 1 6 10 4.91 62 Others 3 0 2 1 0 26 23 9 9 2 8 18 3.12 97 Total 163 44 86 76 31 1476 1341 535 466 88 367 894 2.84 107 * Throws left
We encounter numerous setbacks. Clete Boyer’s season is largely ruined by injuries. Deron Johnson, expected to settle in as a power bat at first base, slumps all year long. Star catcher Joe Torre is nagged by various hurts and delivers far less than his normal production.
But the roster proves resilient. Veteran utilityman Tito Francona picks up nicely for Johnson. Shamsky, though troubled by a chronic sore back, does all right. Though this club hits for less power than traditional Braves’ lineups, with Hank Aaron and Felipe Alou on hand to lead the way, our offense, taking Year of the Pitcher conditions into proper account, isn’t bad.
And our pitching is quite good. Phil Niekro, Pat Jarvis, and Denny Lemaster are a solid front three, and Pappas, arriving in June, makes it a solid front four. Young Cecil Upshaw steps forward as a reliable bullpen ace, and the staff overall is fourth in the league in ERA+.
Aided by a five-win overperformance against Pythag, we come in comfortably in the first division, not a serious contender, but distinctly improved over 1967. We have to be pleased.
Astros
Looking to regroup from the 1967 stall, we organize around our central core of outstanding homegrown young stars: center fielder Jim Wynn, right fielder Rusty Staub, second baseman Joe Morgan, and pitcher Don Wilson. We’re counting on a bounceback from 23-year-old third-year shortstop Sonny Jackson and development from 21-year-old starting pitcher Larry Dierker.
Our only significant veterans are 30-year-old third baseman Bob Aspromonte and 31-year-old starting pitcher Mike Cuellar. Generally, the rest of the roster is given over to kids, and to “projects.”
1968 Houston Astros Won 68 Lost 94 Finished 10th Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ 1B D. Nen* 28 81 232 19 51 5 3 4 25 19 40 .220 .273 .319 .592 80 2B J. Gotay 29 85 264 21 67 7 0 2 19 10 34 .254 .284 .303 .587 79 SS S. Jackson* 23 105 358 40 82 7 3 0 19 23 33 .229 .277 .265 .542 66 3B-1B D. Rader 23 118 400 46 107 19 5 7 53 37 61 .268 .326 .393 .718 118 RF-1B R. Staub* 24 161 591 71 172 37 1 6 60 73 57 .291 .370 .387 .757 131 CF J. Wynn 26 156 542 84 146 23 5 26 74 90 131 .269 .373 .474 .847 157 LF A. Johnson 25 134 482 54 143 24 7 1 51 22 56 .297 .329 .382 .710 116 C D. Adlesh 24 99 288 18 58 4 2 4 18 21 84 .201 .258 .271 .529 61 UT B. Aspromonte 30 118 368 23 83 8 2 1 41 31 51 .226 .282 .266 .549 68 2B-SS W. Woodward 25 118 362 32 84 11 1 0 23 26 59 .232 .285 .268 .553 69 SS-2B H. Torres 22 85 233 14 51 6 1 0 10 8 33 .219 .239 .253 .492 50 1B C. Harrison 27 73 209 20 41 4 2 7 21 21 27 .196 .270 .335 .605 83 OF N. Miller* 22 79 171 24 40 12 1 4 19 14 33 .234 .294 .386 .680 106 C R. Brand 28 61 145 12 31 3 0 0 6 13 16 .214 .282 .234 .517 59 C J. Stephenson* 27 60 155 12 30 4 1 2 13 2 18 .194 .208 .271 .479 45 UT J. Herrera 26 36 100 9 24 5 0 0 7 4 12 .240 .257 .290 .547 66 2B J. Morgan* 24 10 20 6 5 0 1 0 0 7 4 .250 .444 .350 .794 144 C M. Ranew* 30 2 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 .200 .333 .200 .533 66 Others 66 4 9 2 0 0 4 3 23 .136 .183 .167 .350 7 Pitchers 414 21 66 6 0 2 29 7 153 .160 .170 .190 .360 10 Total 5405 516 1291 187 35 66 479 432 926 .239 .294 .323 .617 88 * Bats left Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+ D. Giusti 28 37 34 12 12 14 1 251 226 95 89 15 67 186 3.19 93 L. Dierker 21 32 32 10 12 15 0 234 206 95 86 14 89 161 3.31 90 D. Wilson 23 33 30 9 13 15 0 209 187 85 76 9 70 175 3.27 91 M. Cuellar* 31 28 24 11 8 11 1 171 152 60 52 8 45 133 2.74 109 H. Reed 31 23 19 4 5 9 0 128 149 75 65 9 37 76 4.57 65 T. Dukes 25 50 0 0 2 3 5 66 78 40 32 4 34 45 4.36 68 P. House* 27 43 0 0 2 4 3 54 59 33 30 2 16 29 5.00 60 J. Ray 23 41 11 2 5 6 1 135 112 46 44 10 40 115 2.93 102 D. Coombs* 26 40 11 1 5 8 1 110 130 53 43 2 34 58 3.52 85 S. Shea 25 30 0 0 4 4 5 35 27 14 13 0 11 15 3.34 89 J. Baldschun 31 18 1 0 0 4 2 29 34 19 16 3 11 24 4.97 60 B. Lee 30 15 0 0 0 1 1 22 24 12 12 1 12 11 4.91 61 F. Gladding 32 7 0 0 0 0 2 4 8 7 7 0 3 2 15.75 19 Total 162 49 68 94 22 1448 1392 634 565 77 469 1030 3.51 85 * Throws left
Less than a week into the season, Morgan’s knee is torn up when Tommie Agee bowls him over breaking up a double play. Our dynamic young second baseman is lost for the year, and his future hangs as a question mark. Thus, one of our precious strengths is immediately transformed into one of our many problems.
There are some bright spots. Wynn and Staub are terrific. Doug Rader, in his first full year, strides forward and supplants Aspromonte at third base. And Alex Johnson delivers the breakout season we were hoping for, grabbing and holding the left field job.
But mostly things don’t go so well. Jackson continues to struggle and is bothered with a bad knee of his own. The spots in the lineup that don’t hit—which is half of them—really don’t hit, even by 1968 standards. And our pitching, while not quite the disaster it was in 1967, remains the league’s worst staff.
So we find ourselves dragging all the way down to last place for the first time in our seven-year existence, surpassed even by the lowly Mets. It is a bad year in Houston.
Reds
We’re feeling quite optimistic. We’re delighted to host the full rookie season of sensational catching prospect Johnny Bench. We’re looking forward to the first full-year alignment of impressive young power hitters Tony Perez at third base and Lee May at first, ready to drive in our proven table-setting outfield stars Pete Rose and Vada Pinson.
And all of this rides on the foundation of our splendid young pitching staff. Fronted by hard-throwing right-handers Gary Nolan, Jim Maloney, and Mel Queen, they’re ably supported by the solid veteran starter Pappas and a top-notch bullpen including veteran submariner Ted Abernathy and young fastballer Billy McCool.
1968 Cincinnati Reds Won 81 Lost 81 Finished 5th Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ 1B-LF L. May 25 146 559 76 162 32 1 22 78 34 100 .290 .336 .469 .804 134 2B T. Helms 27 127 507 34 146 28 2 2 46 12 27 .288 .304 .363 .667 95 SS L. Cardenas 29 137 452 44 106 13 2 7 40 36 83 .235 .289 .319 .607 78 3B T. Perez 26 160 625 91 176 25 7 18 90 51 92 .282 .338 .430 .768 124 RF-CF P. Rose# 27 149 626 92 210 42 6 10 48 56 76 .335 .390 .470 .860 151 CF V. Pinson* 29 130 499 59 135 29 6 5 47 32 59 .271 .308 .383 .691 102 LF-CF M. Jones* 29 124 351 59 89 14 2 15 50 43 68 .254 .344 .433 .777 127 C J. Bench 20 146 508 59 140 36 2 14 72 28 86 .276 .311 .437 .748 117 LF-RF J. Beauchamp 28 95 257 33 65 8 1 10 35 23 67 .253 .318 .409 .727 112 OF D. Simpson 24 85 233 33 48 6 1 8 19 26 83 .206 .294 .343 .638 87 IF C. Ruiz# 29 85 185 20 49 4 1 0 12 17 25 .265 .319 .297 .616 82 1B F. Whitfield* 30 87 171 15 44 8 0 6 31 9 29 .257 .302 .409 .712 107 C J. Edwards* 30 43 115 9 27 5 0 2 17 6 11 .235 .266 .330 .597 74 1B-C D. Pavletich 29 46 98 11 28 3 1 2 11 8 23 .286 .345 .398 .743 118 UT L. McFadden 24 58 91 6 21 2 0 0 3 6 19 .231 .280 .253 .533 57 UT R. Conde 33 5 6 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 .167 .167 .167 .333 -2 Others 51 1 10 1 0 0 2 4 14 .196 .250 .216 .466 38 Pitchers 388 28 53 8 1 4 18 23 144 .137 .170 .193 .364 7 Total 5722 671 1510 264 33 125 620 414 1006 .264 .313 .387 .700 104 * Bats left # Bats both Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+ G. Culver 24 42 35 5 11 16 2 226 229 95 81 8 84 114 3.23 98 J. Maloney 28 33 32 8 16 10 0 207 183 100 83 17 80 181 3.61 88 G. Arrigo* 27 36 31 5 12 10 0 205 181 84 76 13 77 140 3.34 95 G. Nolan 20 23 22 4 9 4 0 150 105 48 40 10 49 111 2.40 132 M. Pappas 29 15 11 0 2 5 0 63 70 41 39 9 10 43 5.57 57 T. Cloninger 27 9 9 1 1 2 0 46 41 25 21 4 24 33 4.11 77 M. Queen 26 5 4 0 0 2 0 18 25 15 12 7 6 20 6.00 53 T. Abernathy 35 78 0 0 10 7 13 135 111 43 37 9 55 64 2.47 128 D. Nottebart 32 45 0 0 2 4 3 69 79 32 30 5 24 54 3.91 81 C. Carroll 27 42 8 1 7 7 13 122 107 38 34 4 31 58 2.51 126 B. Kelso 28 37 1 0 4 2 1 58 61 30 27 7 18 42 4.19 75 B. McCool* 23 30 4 0 3 4 2 51 59 35 28 4 41 30 4.94 64 J. Ritchie 31 28 2 0 2 3 0 57 68 32 29 7 13 32 4.58 69 D. McGinn* 24 21 0 0 0 2 1 23 23 11 11 2 17 26 4.30 73 R. Hernandez* 27 12 0 0 0 0 0 14 21 14 14 1 1 5 9.00 35 W. Blasingame* 24 11 1 0 1 1 1 18 23 10 10 2 5 11 5.00 63 T. Davidson* 28 4 0 0 0 0 0 7 10 5 5 2 4 3 6.43 49 Others 3 1 1 2 0 19 19 11 9 2 10 15 4.26 74 Total 163 25 81 81 36 1488 1415 669 586 113 549 982 3.54 89 * Throws left
It’s the best of years, and it’s the worst of years.
Virtually all of the great news—and there’s lots of it—takes place in the offensive half of the inning, and virtually all of the terrible news—and there’s also plenty of that—takes place in the other.
Our hitting, which had been a problem in 1967 (ninth in the league in OPS+), vaults all the way up to the league’s best this year, led by the dynamic Rose. But that pitching staff, best the league by a wide margin in ’67, is plagued by sore arms and general ineffectiveness, and thuds all the way down to ninth in ERA+.
It adds up to a wild and crazy ride to a break-even result. Not at all what we were expecting.
Next time
We’ll see how our teams address their challenges amid the activity of the league’s expansion draft and the realignment of all three franchises into the brand-new National League West Division.
Braves: Actual Astros: Actual Reds: Actual Year W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA 1968 81 81 5 514 549 72 90 10 510 588 83 79 4 690 673 Braves: Virtual Astros: Virtual Reds: Virtual Year W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA 1968 86 76 3 538 535 68 94 10 516 634 81 81 5 671 669
References & Resources
I’ve introduced a new methodological feature here that wasn’t used in previous counterfactual scenarios.
In the past, each team’s runs scored total was determined simply by calculating the Runs Created based on the team’s aggregate batting stats, and going with that. However, just as teams normally vary somewhat from their projected Pythagorean won-lost records, they also normally vary somewhat from their Runs Created total.
(Indeed, while it isn’t completely consistent in this regard, the variance from Runs Created tends to be slightly in the positive direction: in the 27 team-seasons included in this particular exercise—that is, each Atlanta, Houston, and Cincinnati team through the nine seasons from 1968 through 1976—the average actual team outscored its Runs Created projection by 4.3 percent.
So, just as we incorporate each team’s actual variance from its Pythagorean record in these exercises, we’ll now also incorporate each team’s actual variance from its Runs Created total.
These are the variances each team displayed in these years, which will be factored into the team runs scored calculations:
1968: Braves -7.7%, Astros +5.6%, Reds -1.0%
1969: Braves +7.3%, Astros +12.1%, Reds +4.0%
1970: Braves +1.1%, Astros +5.4%, Reds -2.3%
1971: Braves -0.9%, Astros +6.6%, Reds +1.4%
1972: Braves -2.3%, Astros +7.8%, Reds +11.0%
1973: Braves +0.9%, Astros +8.4%, Reds +8.8%
1974: Braves +6.1%, Astros +0.8%, Reds +6.3%
1975: Braves +1.4%, Astros +8.3%, Reds +9.2%
1976: Braves +11.7%, Astros +4.5%, Reds +1.5%
God, I love these things. If I were ever in Las Vegas and walked by Pete Rose, I would love to discuss the previous one involving the Reds or this one with Pete.
So glad we have another one of these series. Fascinating stuff.
Thanks so much for the kind words. These pieces are a distinctly nerdy labor of love.
I think these are great. Please keep them coming.
I have always wondered what would have happened to the Astros if there had been no expansion in ‘69. They would have had Nate Colbert at first and therefore would not have traded Mike Cuellar. The other poor trade was the infamous Rusty Staub for Jesus Alou. I realize Cuellar would not have been the pitcher he was in Baltimore, with infield grass and, arguably,the best defensive infield in MLB, his stats would not have been as gaudy, but he would have taken many innings from far lesser pitchers. It may have been worse for Rusty Staub because of the negative effect of batting in the Dome. Yet I believe the addition of these players would have had the Astros in contention in ’69. Imagine what if the two expansion teams had met in the LCS?
Love this series – keep them coming!
Looks to be yet another entertaining alternative history scenario.
My first thought is will anyone be able to stop the Dodgers from rolling off what would be a then-record of six straight division titles (1973-1978).
But with Sparky Anderson at the helm of the Big Red Machine anything could happen and the Reds in the mid-70s were stocked with talent in Indianapolis.
Also, the ramifications of this scenario bring up some tantalizing thoughts that go beyond even the period Steve is looking at.
Does a potential World Series victory over the Yankees in 1976 have Los Angeles re-signing skipper Walt Alston to another one-year contract for 1977?
Does Tommy Lasorda take over for the fired Gene Mauch in Montreal and eventually win pennants there that eluding Dick Williams?
Does Williams, without a job in 1977, take over for the fired Billy Martin in 1978? He was, after all, the manager The Boss really wanted, so much so that his initial contract to manage the Yankees in 1974 was ruled void by the commissioner’s office.
And does Williams style, the complete opposite of Bob Lemon, rub the Yankees the wrong way and seal their fate, allowing Boston to not only capture the division crown but end a 60-year World Championship drought when the beat the Dodgers in the World Series?