The virtual 1968-76 Braves, Astros, and Reds (Part 4: 1970-71)
We now have three seasons in our rear-view mirror as we counterfactually cruise into the early ’70s.
Two among our trio have enjoyed runaway division championships.
Braves: Actual Astros: Actual Reds: Actual
Year W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA
1968 81 81 5 514 549 72 90 10 510 588 83 79 4 690 673
1969 93 69 1 691 631 81 81 5 676 668 89 73 3 798 768
1970 76 86 5 736 772 79 83 4 744 763 102 60 1 775 681
Braves: Virtual Astros: Virtual Reds: Virtual
Year W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA
1968 86 76 3 538 535 68 94 10 516 634 81 81 5 671 669
1969 105 57 1 762 597 94 68 2 726 611 90 72 3 794 752
1970 89 73 2 817 725 85 77 4T 726 692 104 58 1 779 675
Let’s find out what our three ball clubs now have in mind.
The 1970-71 offseason: Actual deals we will make
Oct. 12, 1970: The Houston Astros traded infielder Hector Torres to the Chicago Cubs for shortstop Roger Metzger.
It isn’t clear why the Cubs wish to exchange a 23-year-old good-field-light-hit shortstop for a 25-year-old good-field-very-light-hit shortstop, but like the actual Astros we’ll just say, “Okay.”
Oct. 21, 1970: The Atlanta Braves traded catcher John Burns to the California Angels for infielder Marty Perez.
Nor is it obvious why the Angels wish to exchange a guy who projects as your garden-variety major league utility infielder for a guy who hit .178 as a backup catcher in his second year in double-A. Our Braves won’t try to talk them out of it.
Dec. 15, 1970: The Cincinnati Reds traded pitcher Jim Maloney to the California Angels for pitcher Greg Garrett.
Maloney attempted to come back from his Achilles tendon injury in September, but was terribly ineffective. He’s been fragile for the past few years anyway, and like the real-life Reds, our version is thinking that the soon-to-be-24-year-old left-hander Garrett, who allowed just 5.8 hits per nine innings as a rookie in 1970, is likely to have the better future.
The 1970-71 offseason: Actual deals we will not make
Nov. 30, 1970: The Atlanta Braves traded first baseman Hal Breeden to the Chicago Cubs for pitcher Hoyt Wilhelm.
We didn’t give Wilhelm away in the first place.
Dec. 1, 1970: The Atlanta Braves traded infielder Bob Aspromonte to the New York Mets for pitcher Ron Herbel.
We no longer have Aspromonte, and aren’t especially interested in Herbel anyway.
April 1, 1971: The Cincinnati Reds signed pitcher Joe Gibbon as a free agent.
We don’t have a need for this veteran southpaw.
The 1970-71 offseason: Deals we will invoke
Dec. 1, 1970: The Cincinnati Reds traded catcher Danny Breeden and cash to the Chicago Cubs for catcher Jack Hiatt and first baseman-outfielder Willie Smith.
The Cubs actually sold Hiatt to the Astros, and traded Smith to the Reds for Breeden. Our Reds will be happy to tie it up for them in a package.
Jan., 1971: The Houston Astros traded first baseman-outfielder Deron Johnson and outfielder Norm Miller to the Philadelphia Phillies for outfielder Johnny Briggs and infielder-outfielder Rick Joseph.
We don’t know exactly why the Phillies have soured on the 27-year-old Briggs, but they have (they would actually dump him for token payment in April of ’71). Our Astros have no problem giving them substantial compensation.
March, 1971: The Atlanta Braves traded pitcher Tom House and cash to the Houston Astros for pitcher Mike Marshall.
Balancing the bullpen arms: our Braves need a righty, our Astros a lefty.
March, 1971: The Houston Astros traded shortstop Enzo Hernandez to the San Diego Padres for pitcher Jerry Nyman and cash.
The speedy but exceptionally light-hitting rookie Hernandez isn’t making our Astros roster.
April, 1971: The Atlanta Braves sold outfielder Ted Savage to the Milwaukee Brewers.
April, 1971: The Atlanta Braves sold first baseman Hal Breeden to the Chicago Cubs.
Final cuts.
The 1971 season: Actual deals we will make
April 16, 1971: The Atlanta Braves signed pitcher Luis Tiant as a free agent.
Why not? We’ll stick him in triple-A and see if El Tiante can find any new life in his arm. He’s still only 30 years old.
May 29, 1971: The Cincinnati Reds traded infielder Frank Duffy and pitcher Vern Geishert to the San Francisco Giants for outfielder George Foster.
Horace Stoneham made more than his share of pointless trades, but none moreso than this one. Our Reds will say, “Thank you!”
June 29, 1971: The Atlanta Braves released pitcher Hoyt Wilhelm.
At 48, he’s tried to make it back from a springtime knee injury, and it just doesn’t look like it’s happening.
The 1971 season: Actual deals we will not make
May 8, 1971: The Cincinnati Reds traded infielder Kurt Bevacqua to the Cleveland Indians for outfielder Buddy Bradford.
We like Bradford well enough, but Bevacqua’s capacity to play infield as well as outfield makes him a better fit for our bench.
May 15, 1971: The Atlanta Braves released pitcher Luis Tiant.
After just one month? We don’t see the point in that, and will continue his triple-A audition.
May 31, 1971: The Atlanta Braves purchased infielder Zoilo Versalles from Gomez Palacio of the Mexican League.
June 2, 1971: The Atlanta Braves released third baseman Clete Boyer.
This was the result of a feud between Boyer and Atlanta GM Paul Richards. We won’t indulge in such silliness.
The 1971 season: Deals we will invoke
May 13, 1971: The Cincinnati Reds sold outfielder Angel Bravo to the San Diego Padres.
Actually it was a trade of Bravo to the Padres for Al Ferrara. We’ve always loved Ferrara’s bat, but we don’t have roster room for either of them.
June 2, 1971: The Atlanta Braves sold pitcher Mike Marshall to the Montreal Expos.
In a battle between Marshall’s wicked stuff and his poor control, this spring the poor control has been winning. He’s going to have to be moved to make space for Hoyt Wilhelm coming off the Disabled List (and this isn’t going to end well for us).
July 8, 1971: The Cincinnati Reds released outfielder Mack Jones.
Mack the Knife has had a fine career, but the old bat speed just isn’t there any more.
1971 season results
Braves
If it weren’t for bad luck, Rico Carty would have none at all. In winter ball he tears up a knee, and so the 1970 major league batting champion—at .366, the highest average of any major leaguer since Ted Williams in 1957—will have to sit out his second full season in the past four.
Fortunately, we have a ready replacement in sophomore Ralph Garr. And we think rookie Dusty Baker is ready to take over in center field. Sophomore Darrell Evans will step ahead of veteran Clete Boyer as our primary third baseman.
This bounty of emerging young talent isn’t without its challenges. We have a tricky time trying to figure out how to fit rookie Earl Williams, who’s pulverized minor league pitching, into the lineup. He’s been a first baseman, a third baseman, and a corner outfielder in the minors; he isn’t a good fielder and the best place to put him would be first base.
But longtime star catcher Joe Torre is entering his thirties now, and in order to keep his booming bat in the lineup on a regular basis, it’s really time to be moving him to first. So, pondering it, we hit on the idea of converting Williams to catcher. We give him a crash course at the position in winter ball and in spring training, and he seems, well, not completely terrible back there. So we’ll give it a whirl in the regular season and hope that the big, strong young fellow generates more runs with his bat than he surrenders with his glove.
Good news on the pitching front is that top reliever Cecil Upshaw is returning from his finger injury; we’re hoping he’ll be able to regain his former touch and control.
1971 Atlanta Braves Won 91 Lost 71 Finished 2nd
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B-C J. Torre 30 153 571 99 199 30 4 29 108 60 64 .349 .411 .567 .978 169
2B F. Millan 27 143 577 71 167 20 8 2 45 37 22 .289 .326 .362 .688 90
SS-2B D. Menke 30 146 475 52 121 26 2 3 48 59 70 .255 .333 .337 .670 86
3B D. Evans* 24 120 361 52 89 12 2 17 52 59 74 .247 .350 .432 .783 116
RF H. Aaron 37 139 495 105 162 22 3 47 118 71 58 .327 .410 .669 1.079 194
CF D. Baker 22 124 403 42 104 19 1 7 35 22 57 .258 .296 .362 .658 81
LF-RF R. Garr* 25 139 511 93 175 19 5 7 38 24 54 .342 .363 .440 .803 122
C-1B E. Williams 22 123 398 51 101 11 1 26 70 33 65 .259 .321 .487 .809 121
OF M. Lum* 25 130 363 46 98 11 1 10 41 38 34 .270 .341 .388 .730 102
SS M. Perez 25 87 205 15 45 7 2 2 16 11 23 .220 .257 .302 .559 54
3B C. Boyer 34 82 191 18 43 4 1 7 25 15 25 .225 .276 .366 .643 77
C B. Didier# 22 76 155 10 34 4 1 0 5 6 17 .219 .234 .258 .492 36
LF A. Shamsky* 29 68 135 16 26 5 2 6 18 21 20 .193 .306 .393 .698 92
C H. King* 27 64 109 8 21 5 0 3 14 15 25 .193 .299 .321 .620 72
IF M. Martinez# 29 32 62 6 17 3 1 0 4 3 6 .274 .308 .355 .663 83
OF O. Brown 25 27 43 4 9 4 0 0 5 3 8 .209 .261 .302 .563 56
Others 31 2 4 0 0 1 3 0 4 .129 .125 .226 .351 -5
Pitchers 440 23 63 6 0 0 17 9 135 .143 .157 .157 .313 -13
Total 5525 713 1480 208 34 167 662 486 761 .268 .324 .409 .733 102
* Bats left
# Bats both
Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
P. Niekro 32 42 36 18 17 12 2 269 248 112 89 27 70 173 2.98 125
M. Pappas 32 35 31 12 18 11 0 235 238 98 86 24 58 90 3.29 113
R. Reed 28 32 29 7 12 11 0 200 197 94 82 22 49 118 3.69 101
G. Stone* 24 27 24 4 7 7 0 173 186 80 69 19 35 110 3.59 104
P. Jarvis 30 42 16 2 6 12 3 157 156 78 71 15 49 67 4.07 92
J. Nash 26 21 12 1 4 4 1 92 117 59 54 12 37 46 5.28 71
T. Kelley 27 11 8 2 5 2 0 57 56 22 19 3 28 25 3.00 124
C. Upshaw 28 49 0 0 11 5 19 82 95 33 32 5 28 56 3.51 106
D. Lemaster* 32 42 0 0 3 2 3 60 59 28 25 5 22 29 3.75 99
S. Barber* 33 39 3 0 4 1 2 75 92 42 40 6 25 40 4.80 78
M. Marshall 28 19 0 0 2 2 2 26 21 14 13 0 15 18 4.50 83
L. Tiant 30 12 2 0 1 2 0 26 22 14 12 4 11 24 4.15 90
H. Wilhelm 48 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 5 4 2 1 1 18.00 21
Others 1 0 1 0 1 21 14 5 5 3 9 6 2.14 174
Total 162 46 91 71 33 1475 1507 684 601 147 437 803 3.67 102
* Throws left
A whole lot of things go very, very well. Williams doesn’t (quite) embarrass himself behind the plate, handling most of the innings there, and hits 26 home runs and is runner-up Rookie of the Year. Torre, benefiting from the defensive relief, busts out a career year with the bat, leading the majors in batting average.
Speaking of career years, at the age of 37 Hank Aaron puts up career highs in homers, on-base percentage, slugging, (obviously) OPS, and OPS+. Wow.
Garr hits .342. The Evans/Boyer third base platoon combines for 24 homers and 74 walks. Phil Niekro rebounds to more genuinely ace-like form.
But, we have some problems. Upshaw is only so-so, not displaying his top form. And with Wilhelm hurt, our bullpen is not good, and the back end of our starting rotation is iffy as well. Neither the rookie Baker in center field nor veteran Denis Menke at shortstop hit as well as expected.
Based on run differential, we’re just a moderately good team. But we receive a Pythagorean windfall, coming in at seven wins above expectation. Alas, 91 wins leaves us just short of the division flag, in a photo finish.
Astros
We haven’t undertaken major changes. Johnny Briggs is replacing Deron Johnson as the backup first base/left field bat. Roger Metzger is replacing Hector Torres as Woody Woodward’s partner at shortstop. Tom House is replacing Mike Marshall in the bullpen.
We anticipate the key newcomer to be strike-throwing rookie right-hander Ken Forsch, who will compete for a spot in the starting rotation after compiling a 17-8 record with a 1.96 ERA at double-A and triple-A in 1970.
But mostly, we’re counting on improvement to result from continued development of our prize sophomores: 22-year-old first baseman John Mayberry and 20-year-old center fielder Cesar Cedeño.
1971 Houston Astros Won 92 Lost 70 Finished 1st
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B J. Mayberry* 22 138 449 50 108 10 4 19 55 61 84 .241 .337 .408 .744 113
2B J. Morgan* 27 160 583 96 149 27 11 13 56 88 52 .256 .345 .407 .752 116
SS R. Metzger# 23 100 281 29 64 7 6 0 13 21 26 .228 .283 .295 .579 67
3B D. Rader 26 135 484 51 118 21 4 12 62 40 112 .244 .301 .378 .680 94
RF R. Staub* 27 162 599 96 189 37 8 14 88 72 43 .316 .392 .474 .867 148
CF C. Cedeño 20 161 611 91 161 40 6 10 87 25 102 .264 .291 .398 .689 96
LF J. Wynn 29 111 323 29 65 13 0 6 36 44 51 .201 .298 .297 .596 72
C J. Edwards* 33 71 211 12 49 9 3 1 15 17 25 .232 .288 .318 .606 74
C-1-L B. Watson 25 123 421 44 119 15 3 8 57 36 63 .283 .340 .390 .729 109
IF W. Woodward 28 109 273 22 68 9 1 0 18 27 27 .249 .307 .289 .597 73
LF-1B J. Briggs* 27 108 238 31 63 13 1 7 30 42 50 .265 .372 .416 .788 126
IF F. Stanley 23 77 162 15 34 7 1 1 12 30 29 .210 .333 .284 .617 79
C M. Ryan 29 65 134 9 23 5 1 2 6 10 31 .172 .229 .269 .498 43
C L. Howard 26 47 116 10 26 5 0 3 19 8 29 .224 .270 .345 .615 76
OF C. Geronimo* 23 94 82 13 18 2 2 1 6 5 31 .220 .261 .329 .591 69
LF K. Lampard* 25 6 11 1 3 1 0 0 1 0 1 .273 .273 .364 .636 82
Others 54 4 9 4 0 0 6 3 14 .167 .203 .241 .444 27
Pitchers 407 26 50 7 0 2 21 10 166 .122 .138 .152 .290 -17
Total 5439 629 1316 232 51 99 588 539 936 .242 .309 .358 .666 91
* Bats left
# Bats both
Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
D. Wilson 26 35 34 18 17 9 0 268 195 80 73 15 79 180 2.45 138
M. Cuellar* 34 34 34 19 18 10 0 263 249 100 92 18 65 114 3.15 107
K. Forsch 24 33 23 5 9 7 0 169 144 52 47 7 48 120 2.50 135
L. Dierker 24 24 23 6 12 5 0 159 150 50 48 8 33 91 2.72 124
J. McGlothlin 27 30 26 4 8 10 0 154 145 58 55 9 41 86 3.21 105
R. Cook* 23 20 9 1 2 6 0 74 73 39 30 4 29 41 3.65 93
S. Spinks 23 8 6 2 2 1 0 51 43 22 21 3 29 51 3.71 91
J. Nyman* 28 6 3 0 0 2 0 17 21 11 10 2 10 13 5.29 64
D. Giusti 31 58 0 0 5 7 24 86 79 30 27 4 31 55 2.83 120
G. Culver 27 52 0 0 4 6 1 71 65 24 20 3 29 45 2.54 133
J. Ray 26 47 0 0 8 3 1 73 51 19 16 2 23 36 1.97 171
T. House* 24 42 0 0 4 2 1 53 69 21 18 5 15 42 3.06 111
Others 4 1 3 2 0 36 32 14 13 3 24 42 3.25 104
Total 162 56 92 70 27 1474 1316 520 470 83 456 916 2.87 118
* Throws left
We have a big problem, as our star 29-year-old left fielder Jim Wynn is in a fog of marital problems (indeed, his wife stabbed him with a kitchen knife in the winter); while he’s physically okay, he’s an emotional mess, and he suffers through a terrible season. That’s a blow to our offense, and as both Mayberry and Cedeño do all right but not great, our run production is below league-average.
But, by golly, does our pitching staff ever pick up the slack. Larry Dierker has a terrific first half before sitting out most of the second with an arm injury. Don Wilson bounces back from a disappointing 1970 showing, and steps up to join ever-steady veteran Mike Cuellar at the top of the rotation. Forsch is superb, and the bullpen, headed by Dave Giusti with splendid support from George Culver and Jim Ray, is outstanding.
It’s the best pitching in the league, without question. And that pitching carries us on its back to our first-ever championship. It gets really exciting, though, as we fall four wins shy of our Pythagorean projection, but we have enough in the tank to nip the Braves in a memorable race that also closely involves the Giants and Dodgers.
Reds
The mellow afterglow of our great 1970 performance is rudely interrupted in the winter, when star center fielder Bobby Tolan ruptures his Achilles tendon while playing basketball (Jim Maloney last year, now Tolan—what’s up with Achilles tendons and Cincinnati ballplayers?) and will miss the entire 1971 season. To deal with that, we’ll shift Pete Rose from right field to center, move Bernie Carbo from left to right, and give sophomore Hal McRae (who contributed nicely as Carbo’s platoon partner in 1970) first crack at the regular left field job.
Other than that, the only significant changes we’re anticipating are the introductions of two highly-touted rookie pitchers onto the staff: left-hander Don Gullett and righty Milt Wilcox.
1971 Cincinnati Reds Won 82 Lost 80 Finished 5th
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B L. May 28 147 553 87 154 17 3 39 100 42 135 .278 .332 .532 .864 147
2B T. Helms 30 150 547 41 141 26 1 3 54 26 33 .258 .286 .325 .611 77
SS D. Concepcion 23 130 327 24 67 4 4 1 21 18 51 .205 .240 .251 .491 43
3B-1B T. Perez 29 158 609 74 164 22 3 25 93 51 120 .269 .325 .438 .764 120
RF B. Carbo* 23 125 379 43 84 24 1 7 30 69 71 .222 .344 .346 .689 101
CF P. Rose# 30 160 632 88 192 27 4 13 46 68 50 .304 .372 .421 .793 130
LF H. McRae 25 125 427 47 113 28 2 14 55 16 46 .265 .291 .438 .729 109
C-OF J. Bench 23 149 562 82 134 19 2 27 63 49 83 .238 .299 .423 .722 107
SS-OF S. Jackson* 26 99 292 31 71 10 3 1 15 18 25 .243 .284 .308 .592 72
OF G. Foster 22 69 184 17 42 9 2 5 24 10 49 .228 .275 .380 .655 88
C J. Hiatt 28 41 104 10 27 4 1 1 11 20 26 .260 .378 .346 .724 112
OF T. Cline* 32 69 97 12 19 1 0 0 1 18 16 .196 .331 .206 .537 59
1B-LF M. Jones* 32 43 91 11 14 3 0 3 9 17 24 .154 .300 .286 .586 71
UT J. Stewart# 32 80 82 7 19 2 2 0 9 9 12 .232 .304 .305 .609 77
UT K. Bevacqua 24 46 74 7 16 3 0 2 8 2 16 .216 .231 .338 .569 63
1B W. Smith* 32 24 33 4 7 1 0 1 3 4 10 .212 .297 .333 .631 83
SS F. Duffy 24 13 16 0 3 1 0 0 1 1 2 .188 .235 .250 .485 41
Others 24 2 3 0 0 0 1 1 3 .125 .160 .125 .285 -16
Pitchers 370 18 48 5 2 1 16 16 118 .129 .155 .160 .315 -8
Total 5403 605 1318 206 30 143 560 455 890 .244 .301 .372 .673 94
* Bats left
# Bats both
Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
G. Nolan 23 35 35 9 12 15 0 245 208 91 86 12 59 146 3.16 104
D. Gullett* 20 35 31 4 16 6 0 218 196 73 64 14 64 107 2.64 124
M. Wilcox 21 34 18 3 10 9 1 145 140 52 47 9 42 74 2.92 112
W. Simpson 22 22 21 1 4 7 0 117 106 66 62 9 77 61 4.77 69
R. Grimsley* 21 17 17 4 7 5 0 107 101 45 43 10 29 45 3.62 90
J. Merritt* 27 28 11 0 1 11 0 107 115 55 52 14 31 38 4.37 75
D. Coombs* 29 19 7 0 2 4 0 58 81 45 40 10 25 37 6.21 53
W. Granger 27 70 0 0 7 6 23 100 94 39 37 8 28 51 3.33 98
S. Mingori* 27 54 0 0 3 2 8 57 33 10 9 2 22 45 1.42 230
M. Queen 29 49 10 0 7 7 3 126 121 41 38 11 44 82 2.71 120
C. Carroll 30 48 9 0 11 7 10 125 109 39 39 8 56 80 2.81 116
Others 3 1 2 1 0 41 41 20 16 5 9 25 3.51 93
Total 162 22 82 80 45 1446 1345 576 533 112 486 791 3.32 99
* Throws left
Well, then.
All the news isn’t bad. Gullett and Wilcox do splendidly. Lee May produces a career year, and Pete Rose is, well, Pete Rose.
But, boy oh boy, is there a lot of bad news. All three of our most productive 1970 bats—Tony Perez, Johnny Bench, and Bernie Carbo—nosedive. Dave Concepcion, who held his own at the plate as a rookie, struggles mightily this time around. Thus our offensive attack, the core strength of the ball club for the past three years, is rendered little more than league-average.
And our pitching can’t make up the difference. Jim Merritt, Danny Coombs, and Wayne Simpson, keys to our success a year ago, all implode. Greg Garrett is so hopelessly wild in spring training that he fails to even make the team. Our ever-strong bullpen is forced to carry too heavy a load.
We fall 22 wins short of our 1970 performance. It’s a huge letdown.
Next time
We hear rumors that the Reds and Astros might be talking about some kind of a trade …
Braves: Actual Astros: Actual Reds: Actual
Year W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA
1968 81 81 5 514 549 72 90 10 510 588 83 79 4 690 673
1969 93 69 1 691 631 81 81 5 676 668 89 73 3 798 768
1970 76 86 5 736 772 79 83 4 744 763 102 60 1 775 681
1971 82 80 3 643 699 79 83 4T 585 567 79 83 4T 586 581
Braves: Virtual Astros: Virtual Reds: Virtual
Year W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA
1968 86 76 3 538 535 68 94 10 516 634 81 81 5 671 669
1969 105 57 1 762 597 94 68 2 726 611 90 72 3 794 752
1970 89 73 2 817 725 85 77 4T 726 692 104 58 1 779 675
1971 91 71 2 713 684 92 70 1 629 520 82 80 5 605 576
References & Resources
I’ve introduced a new methodological feature here that wasn’t used in previous counterfactual scenarios.
In the past, each team’s runs scored total was determined simply by calculating the Runs Created based on the team’s aggregate batting stats, and going with that. However, just as teams normally vary somewhat from their projected Pythagorean won-lost records, they also normally vary somewhat from their Runs Created total.
Indeed, while it isn’t completely consistent in this regard, the variance from Runs Created tends to be slightly in the positive direction: in the 27 team-seasons included in this particular exercise—that is, each Atlanta, Houston, and Cincinnati team through the nine seasons from 1968 through 1976—the average actual team outscored its Runs Created projection by 4.3%.
So, just as we incorporate each team’s actual variance from their Pythagorean record in these exercises, we’ll now also incorporate each team’s actual variance from their Runs Created total.
These are the variances each team displayed in these years, that are factored into the team runs scored calculations:
1968: Braves -7.7%, Astros +5.6%, Reds -1.0%
1969: Braves +7.3%, Astros +12.1%, Reds +4.0%
1970: Braves +1.1%, Astros +5.4%, Reds -2.3%
1971: Braves -0.9%, Astros +6.6%, Reds +1.4%
1972: Braves -2.3%, Astros +7.8%, Reds +11.0%
1973: Braves +0.9%, Astros +8.4%, Reds +8.8%
1974: Braves +6.1%, Astros +0.8%, Reds +6.3%
1975: Braves +1.4%, Astros +8.3%, Reds +9.2%
1976: Braves +11.7%, Astros +4.5%, Reds +1.5%
We hear rumors that the Reds and Astros might be talking about some kind of a trade…
Ugh! Here it comes, the Winter of 1971…
November 29, 1971 – Traded Jack Billingham (SP), Denis Menke (1B), Joe Morgan (2B), Ed Armbrister (OF) and Cesar Geronimo (CF) to the Cincinnati Reds for Lee May (1B), Tommy Helms (2B) and Jimmy Stewart (SS)
Dec 2 1971 – traded John Mayberry (1B) and Dave Grangaard (3B/SS) to the Kansas City Royals for Lance Clemons (RP) and Jim York (RP)
Dec 3 1971 – traded Bill Greif (SP), Derrel Thomas (2B), and Mark Schaeffer (RP) to the San Diego Padres for Dave Arthur Roberts (SP)
And just like that, the Astros are on the road to mediocrity.
Well at least J.R. Richard will be in the Bigs soon…
Hmmmmm. El Tiante not in Boston? If I didn’t know better I’d suspect it was a Yankees plot.
‘‘May 15, 1971: The Atlanta Braves released pitcher Luis Tiant. After just one month? We don’t see the point in that, and will continue his triple-A audition.’‘
That the Braves would released him after a month in AAA is no more crazy than him being released by the Minnesota Twins on March 31, 1971, thus making him a free agent to begin with.
Tiant had a decent 1970 season with the Twins at age 29, going 7-3 in 17 starts (one year after going 9-20 with Cleveland). Baseball-Reference.com has his contract at $50,000 in 1970, with $48,000 due in 1971.
Tiant had started the 1970 season at 6-0 when fractured his right scapula in a game against Milwaukee on May 28th and missed two months. When he came back in August he only lasted until the 7th inning in only two of his starts.
The Dallas Morning News, in an article about pitcher Edwin Correa on Nov. 11, 1989, says that Tiant is ‘‘believed to be the only pitcher to come back from an injury similar’’ [to Correa’s].
Clearly back in 1971, the Twins thought Tiant was done. They gave him a chance during spring training but released him on March 31, two days after the Cardinals got to him early in a 13-2 romp.
The Sarasota Journal of Apr 1, 1971 says that Tiant was planning to make a tryout with Boston.
Two weeks later, however, it was the Braves who signed Tiant to a 30-day trial minor league contract and assigned him to Richmond, their AAA team. But they released him on May 15, 1971 and the Red Sox signed him to a contract two days after that and assigned him to the their AAA team in Louisville.
Both AAA clubs were in the International Association and the official stats for the league don’t give a breakdown between the two clubs.
Tiant did apparently pitch in 5 games for Richmond and 4 games for the Colonels. But according to the SABR bio project, Tiant had 29 strikeouts and a 2.61 ERA with Louisville and was called up to Boston on June 3. Baseball-Reference.com has Tiant’s combined IL stats at 48 K’s in 54 IP and a season ERA of 4.17.
According to the book ‘‘Game of My Life: Boston Red Sox’’ by Chaz Scoggins, how did Tiant pitch during his time with Richmond? Thirty-nine runner reached base in 23 innings and his ERA was 6.26.
So it’s pretty conclusive that the Braves released him not only because of their concern about Tiant being able to comeback from an injury that no other pitcher had been able to, but moreover because he also got racked on the mound during that 30-day trial in Richmond and, like the Twins, they thought his performances that spring indicated he was done.
For a team that would have the 3rd worse ERA in the N.L. that year, the Braves simply didn’t think Tiant was worth keeping around longer than the 30-day trial. Remember, this was before Sabermetrics took hold, so stats like W-L, ERA, IP, K’s and CG for starting pitchers were weighted heavily in the minds of baseball executives.
But Red Sox minor league scout Lee Stange saw something he liked in watching Tiant pitch in Richmond and recommended to the brass they give him a shot.
Tiant’s manager in Louisville? Darrell Johnson, who would skipper the Red Sox to the American League pennant in 1975, who also saw Tiant pitch with Richmond and also recommended the Red Sox sign him after the Braves released him.
After Tiant pitched well with Louisville the Red Sox ultimately called him up to the majors.
But Tiant then 1-7 in 21 games (10 starts) in Boston. He lost his first six starts and was eventually put in the bullpen by manager Eddie Kasko.
The consensus again was that Tiant was done, but Kasko was felt otherwise. He stuck with Tiant after spring training in 1972, first putting him in the bullpen before placing him into the rotation. Tiant would end up leading the A.L. with an ERA of 1.91. If not for a players’ strike which help create a scheduling imbalance and leave the Red Sox just a half game behind the division-winning Tigers at season’s end, Tiant might have been pitching in the ALCS that.
But I wouldn’t deny the Braves keeping Tiant without at least allowing them a small concession that makes more sense that keeping an injured pitcher whose career looks like it’s over.
Let them sign Frank Duffy, their 3rd round pick in the 1966 amateur draft.
For some reason, the Braves couldn’t ink him to a contract and he was selected the following year by Cincinnati in the 1st round (6th overall). Surely, Duffy would be an upgrade from Denis Menke in 1972 and the Braves are going to be needing a shortstop in 1973 anyway when Menke’s career is over.
Duffy can fill that hole adequately for a few years until Ted Turner goes shopping in 1977 and gets Bucky Dent to agree to a $150,000/yr contract extension after sending Ken Henderson back to the White Sox, along with a couple of minor league pitchers and $300,000 in cash.
Heck, if Duffy holds out for more money, let the Braves keep their 1st round pick in the 1966 January Draft/Secondary Phase.
Unlike Duffy, Tom Seaver actually did sign a contract with the Braves after they drafted him. But the Commissioner Eckert ruled Seaver ineligible because Seaver’s college team, USC, had played two exhibition games before he signed. Seaver’s father then threatened a lawsuit because Seaver lost his scholarship and amateur status and so Eckert arranged a lottery of teams willing to match Seaver’s $40,000 contract offer by the Braves. Only the Phillies, Indians and Mets were interested, with the Mets winning the four-team lottery.
So let the Atlanta keep Seaver.
This way Tom Seaver’s happy, Luis Tiant’s happy, the Braves are happy, the Red Sox are happy, and the Yankees, well… come 1977, Fred Stanley will be happy.
Great stuff on Tiant….I, too, have wondered why Atlanta didn’t give him more than 30 days. Your details help understand that sequence of decisions.
It strikes me that the Rick Reushel situation in the 80s has some strong parallels. Another accomplished right hander who had injuries…Pirates end up getting him for nothing.
A little Joe Morgan tidbit I just discovered….he and Stargell knew each other as youngsters in Oakland, Stargell urged Pirates to sign Morgan(of course, Stargell was an unproven minor leaguer himself at the time so who’s listening to him?). But can you imagine Joe Morgan on the Pirates teams of the 70s??? From Maz to Morgan….not bad
Ted, re: your trade rumor
Of course in this alternate timeline Jack Billingham is still on the Montreal Expos.
What’s amazing about the Houston/Cincy deal is how some newspaper headlines claimed the Astros got the best of the deal with the Reds.
But Cincinnati manager Sparky Anderson knew what he was getting. He told the Associated Press, ‘‘Sure, we’re giving up power. [But] there’s a lot more to baseball than home runs. Morgan is the key man. I look for him to steal 50 bases.’‘
In the next six years, Morgan swiped 58, 67, 58, 67, 60 and 49 (getting caught a total of only 73 times – a success rate of 83% – and was successful in 13 of 15 attempts in post-season play).
In the same article (talking about his club’s acquisition of Rick Monday) Cubs manager Leo Durocher said, ‘‘The game has changed. With that Astroturf, if you can’t run, you are in trouble.’‘
In his four years with Houston, Helms would steal a total of 10 bases (getting caught eight times).
Gary, yes, the Cubs sure did give up on Rick Reuschel too soon, letting him sign with the Pirates. (They did so in 1981, too, pocketing $400,000 and Doug Bird from the New York Yankees)
Apparently, Reuschel was a decent base runner, too. I remember being perplexed at rookie manager Jim Leyland having Reuschel pinch-run after Johnny Ray led off with a double in extra innings against the Dodgers.
The hard-throwing Lee’s entire career formed a nearly perfect parabola. He knocked around the low minors in the Pirates’ organization through the mid-to-late ‘50s, walking the ballpark and getting his butt kicked. Then, focusing more on pitching strictly in relief, he began to pull it together in the early ‘60s.
Then in 1963, at the age of 25, out of nowhere he suddenly uncorked a 20-2, 1.70 season at Class-A Batavia in the NYP League. The Angels picked him up at a bargain-bin purchase price, and he blew American League hitters away out of the Los Angeles bullpen in 1964.
He was nearly as effective in ‘65, then less so in ‘66. Indeed his major league ERA+ figures were a perfectly neat cascade: 219 to 175 to 122 to 82 to 62 and gone.
thoroughly going away from your well thought out topic, look at at bob lee’s numbers for 1964 (angels).
holy smokes.
and people yip & yap about rivera.
this guy was pitching from a high mound; pitchers park; generous strike zone.
oh, that was rivera.
lee was really freaking good, as a pitcher.
if you get bored…
i encourage your thought:
the al (ny,chi,minn) from 1961 on.
please keep writing.
yeah, rivera could have hel lee’s jock strap.