Action index

Max has a great article up today on using Win Probability Added and Leverage Index to determine a game’s excitement. We took the “simple” approach in the Hardball Times Annual (have I mentioned that it’s now shipping?) and ranked all games according to the swings in Win Expectancy from play to play.

In fact, THT Annual purchasers will be able to download a spreadsheet of all 2010 games and each one’s “Action Index.” Here is a list of the top ten most exciting games of 2010 (a typical game has an Action Index of 1.0).

GameDate    At…  Inn   Winner   Loser     WPA     Action Index
2010-06-24  COL    10  BOS   13 COL  11  6.5896       2.28
2010-07-23  FLA     9  FLA    7 ATL   6  5.7923       2.22
2010-06-19  FLA    11   TB    9 FLA   8  7.0716       2.22
2010-06-10  CLE     9  CLE    8 BOS   7  5.7104       2.19
2010-09-11  TEX     9  TEX    7 NYA   6  5.6648       2.18
2010-05-11  TEX    13  OAK    7 TEX   6  8.1252       2.16
2010-06-01  HOU     9  HOU    8 WAS   7  5.5713       2.14
2010-06-08  PHI     9  PHI   10 FLA   8  5.5274       2.12
2010-08-16  BAL    11  BAL    5 SEA   4  6.6580       2.09
2010-10-02  BOS    10  BOS    7 NYA   6  6.0113       2.08

The least exciting game was the Angels’ 8-0 pasting of Seattle on May 7, with an Action Index of 0.26.