College World Series odds: Pre-Super Regionals

The final 16 is set. As much fun as underdog stories can be, we don’t get that many of them. Top seeds won 13 of the 16 regionals, and one of the three “underdogs” was Virginia, which should’ve been the favorite anyway. Arkansas got past Oklahoma, and Southern Miss—the only No. 3 seed to advance—overcame Georgia Tech.

The NCAA has already announced the hosts of the eight Super Regionals. No real surprises, especially since six of the eight national seeds advanced, and those teams were guaranteed to host the next round no matter what. I bring it up just as a reminder that home-field is important—more so in college baseball than in the pros. My simulator uses the assumption that, given equal talent levels, home teams win at a 56 percent rate. Thus, the Texas-TCU and North Carolina-East Carolina matchups could be heavily influenced by the venue. Hosts are favored to win each of the eight Super Regionals with the exception of (you guessed it) the Virginia-Mississippi contest in Oxford.

Keep reading for the full report.

Team                  Omaha  FinalTwo  Champ  
Texas                 59.0%     13.4%   5.9%  
Texas Christian       41.0%      7.4%   2.9%  

Southern Mississippi  34.1%      2.9%   0.8%  
Florida               65.9%      9.6%   3.5%  

Arizona State         67.0%     31.3%  18.6%  
Clemson               33.0%     10.2%   4.7%  

East Carolina         41.9%      9.8%   4.2%  
North Carolina        58.1%     15.4%   7.2%
  
Cal State Fullerton   71.7%     25.0%  14.4%  
Louisville            28.3%      5.1%   2.0%  

Florida State         67.8%      9.9%   3.9%  
Arkansas              32.2%      2.4%   0.7%
  
Virginia              69.6%     31.1%  19.6%  
Mississippi           30.4%      6.0%   2.3%  

Rice                  36.4%      5.9%   2.3%  
Louisiana State       63.6%     14.7%   7.2%