HR/FB Park Factors
Just a quick hit to share park factors for HR/FB rate.
I used BIP data and the methodology from Baseball Reference to determine simple HR/FB park factors for 2009 and 4-year weighed factors (weights are 5,3,2,1).
Update: My spreadsheet was thrown off by the Rays’ name change. I’ve corrected the numbers below
Without further adieu, here’s the list:
Team Park 2009 4 Year Angels Angel Stadium 110 96 Astros Minute Maid Park 104 108 Athletics McAfee Colisuem 95 92 Blue Jays Rogers Centre 105 108 Braves Turner Field 90 95 Brewers Miller Park 108 106 Cardinals Busch Stadium 86 84 Cubs Wrigley Field 97 103 DiamondbacksChase Field 99 106 Dodgers Dodger Stadium 89 95 Giants Pacific Bell Park 104 95 Indians Jacobs Field 75 88 Mariners Safeco Park 95 96 Marlins Dolphins Stadium 109 99 Mets Citi Field 98 98 Nationals Nationals Stadium 91 92 Orioles Oriole Park at Camden Yar 109 115 Padres PETCO Park 73 75 Phillies Citizens Bank Park 109 94 Pirates PNC Park 105 94 Rays Tropicana Field 110 111 Rangers The Ballpark at Arlington 98 97 Red Sox Fenway Park 98 90 Reds Great American Ballpark 121 114 Rockies Coors Field 103 112 Royals Kaufman Stadium 73 78 Tigers Comerica Park 94 101 Twins Metrodome 109 96 White Sox US Cellular Field 115 118 Yankees New Yankee Stadium 130 130
The Mets and the Yankees Park Factors are one season only
The Nationals Park Factor is two seasons, weighted at 5 and 3
@Nick: I had twins back in August and decided to take a break from writing for a while.
@Colin: The data is from BIS. I included fly balls and fliner flies.
@archilochusColubris: Yeah, PETCO is substantially lower. The Rays changing their name knocked everything off. I’ve fixed the post. Sorry for the inconvenience.
Dan, what’s the fly ball per hit ball (AB-K+SF) rate per park? Let’s say for four years, no weighting, if you don’t mind. Are some parks “fly ball” parks?
Where the heck have you been Dan?
What’s the data source on this? The number of fly balls can vary, depending on whether you’re asking BIS, STATS or Retrosheet.
Also, any comment on PETCO?
Would have thought that one would be a bit lower…
@Colin
They’re all fairly close – in the low 30% range. Coors is the lowest at 30.04% and RFK was the highest at 34.87.
These numbers are just raw rates, and not adjusted for pitching staff at all. I’ll take a look at real park factors later this week.
Sorry for the formatting.
parkname fb_rate
Angel Stadium of Anaheim 0.3443
Oriole Park at Camden Yards 0.3353
Fenway Park 0.3463
U.S. Cellular Field 0.3356
Jacobs Field 0.3226
Comerica Park 0.3384
Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium 0.3191
Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodom 0.3215
Yankee Stadium 0.3305
McAfee Coliseum 0.3430
Safeco Field 0.3239
Tropicana Field 0.3424
The Ballpark in Arlington 0.3292
Rogers Centre 0.3233
Chase Field 0.3247
Turner Field 0.3071
Wrigley Field 0.3330
Coors Field 0.3004
Dolphins Stadium 0.3336
Minute Maid Park 0.3219
Dodger Stadium 0.3074
Miller Park 0.3365
Shea Stadium 0.3203
PNC Park 0.3147
Pacific Bell Park 0.3152
Great American Ballpark 0.3373
Citizens Bank Park 0.3102
PETCO Park 0.3385
RFK Stadium 0.3487
Busch Stadium 0.3042
Nationals Park 0.3056
New Yankee Stadium 0.3248
Citi Field 0.3260
As a lifelong Yankee fan, the House That George Built is not what we’re accustomed to, the championships are…browsed around the Steiner sports website and bought myself some great original Yankee Stadium relics, straight from the cathedral…freeze dried grass and dirt from the final season, ahh memories
Okay, excluding the three parks that weren’t in service all four years, I get a standard deviation of .013 in FB rate. Given those numbers, we should expect to see an SD of .003 on the basis of random chance alone. You can’t directly subtract SDs, IIRC, so you have to do it with variances (square of the SD), so:
(.013^2-.003^2)^.5 = .0126
is the “true” SD of observed FB% by park.
That strikes me as being rather high – and makes me wonder about potential scorer bias with the BIS data.
Interesting. If you’ll indulge me further – about how many BIP per park?
Colin- see my comments on The Book Blog. In summary, BIS scorers are rotated through different games, teams, and parks throughout the season, AND there’s an almost-entirely different set of scorers each year. Considering all of that, I’m not sure how “scorer bias” sneaks in there.
Is it possible- and Greg R has brought this up before- that weather patterns are influencing the data? Stiff winds that hold the ball up in the air longer?
For those in play the whole 4 seasons, between 17000 and 19000.
Dolphins Stadium had the lowest BIP rate at 69%, while the Metrodome had the highest at 75.7%.
BIP rate is hugely influenced by the players of course.
There’s probably some selection bias in these numbers too, because you’ll likely see more flyball pitchers in the parks that are more forgiving to flyballs.
Or at least that’s the theory. I’d have to check how true it is.
Ok, I now have Park Factors for Flyball Rate. I have no idea what they might mean, but here we go anyway.
Team PF
Angels 107
Astros 102
Athletics 101
Blue Jays 98
Braves 99
Brewers 101
Cardinals 97
Cubs 103
Diamondbacks 99
Dodgers 102
Giants 95
Indians 94
Mariners 101
Marlins 100
Mets N/A
Nationals N/A
Orioles 101
Padres 102
Phillies 93
Pirates 96
Rangers 100
Rays 100
Red Sox 99
Reds 105
Rockies 94
Royals 99
Tigers 100
Twins 101
White Sox 101
Yankees N/A
These are four year factors with no weighting based on BIS data including OF flies and OF fliner flies as fly balls.
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