THT’s Franchise Player Draft: Picks 3-5

Picking up after our first two selections were revealed yesterday, we continue our draft with a trio of quite intriguing selections–one expected, two somewhat surprising. Below, the rationale behind each pick is explained.

Pick No. 3: Jack Moore selects Bryce Harper

With an early pick in this hypothetical draft, the first thing on my mind is certainty. There are, at least in this context, loads of players with enough potential to build a franchise around. But how many of them have already realized it? And how many of those are young enough to stay at that level long enough to give my franchise one or two significant windows of contention for a World Series run?

That quest for certainty limited me to a few things: I wanted somebody who has already produced well in the majors, is at or under the age of 27, and, finally, is a position player. Looking at these conditions, and looking at the fact that Mike Trout and Carlos Correa, two players who fit these criteria perfectly, were taken ahead of me, my choice is clear: Washington Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper.

Harper, through age 24, owns a .285/.365/.515 career batting line with 150 home runs. He has compiled a ridiculous 27.7 Wins Above Replacement, bested at his age by only by 12 position players since integration. The only active player above him is Trout, who would have been my selection—and likely anyone’s—had he fallen to number three. Of the other 11, seven are Hall of Famers—Mickey Mantle, Al Kaline, Eddie Mathews, Johnny Bench, Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson and Cal Ripken. The other four—Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr, Albert Pujols and Andrew Jones—are likely Hall candidates. (Perhaps Jones is an exception, but I am a fairly large-Hall person, and I think he belongs on the strength of a 10-year peak in which he recorded a 117 OPS+ and was one of the best defensive outfielders of all time.)

But perhaps the most important thing here, and something that gets lost when we focus so much on surplus value, is that players of Harper’s skill level are extremely scarce. I believe Trout is the only player in the league who is definitively better than Harper right now. I believe there are others who can outperform Harper over the course of a single season—this list would at least include Correa, Jose Altuve, Kris Bryant, Clayton Kershaw, Joey Votto and Francisco Lindor, and probably a few others. But few players have the ceiling Harper possesses—just look at his 9.5 WAR 2015—and fewer yet are younger than Harper.

Nothing gives me more confidence in this pick than Harper’s 2016 season. By his standards, it was a disastrous campaign. Even though he walked nearly as often as he struck out, Harper’s signature power wasn’t there, as he posted just a .198 ISO and managed only five home runs in the second half of the season. And yet Harper still finished the 2016 season with a .243/.373/.441 batting line, 24 home runs and 3.5 WAR—a borderline All-Star level performance. If this is Harper’s floor, as long as I surround him with even a semi-competent roster, his presence will make my team competitive.

Harper is a generational talent. He has one of the most explosive swings the game has ever seen, and at just 25 years old, it’s entirely possible his best is yet to come. Not only that, he is an all-around producer. He has fantastic power, great plate discipline, solid contact ability, above-average speed, plus corner outfield defense, and a laser arm. Harper is someone who excels at everything he is asked to do and then some. That’s exactly what you look for in a cornerstone franchise player, and why I was more than happy to see him still around for the third pick in our draft.

Pick No. 4: Bruce Markusen selects Gleyber Torres

In selecting a player to start a franchise with, I found myself gravitating toward certain standards. I prefer a position player over a pitcher for two reasons: 1) a position player theoretically can contribute to team success over the course of 162 games, or at least 130 to 140 games based on a more conservative estimate. Furthermore, pitchers tend to become injured at a more frequent rate than a regular player. Position players, by their very nature, are simply more reliable than pitchers.

With a preference for position players established, I believe there is no better player to start with than a shortstop. If a young player begins his professional career as a shortstop, he can move almost anywhere on the defensive spectrum, with the possible exception of catcher or pitcher. A shortstop has the arm strength to play third, the range to play second, and the reliable hands needed at first. And more often than not, he has the foot speed to play the outfield. If you can handle the requirements of shortstop, you can handle the demands of just about any position on the diamond.

These were just some of the factors I considered in choosing current minor leaguer Gleyber Torres, who has played only a handful of games as high as Triple-A. Regarded as a five-tool talent, Torres began his pro career as a shortstop in the Chicago Cubs minor league system before coming to the New York Yankees organization as part of the Aroldis Chapman trade.

Not long after the trade, the Yankees switched Torres to third base while also giving him time at second base, not because they felt he could not handle the physical demands of shortstop, but because of the long-term presence of Didi Gregorius in the Bronx. With Chase Headley at third and Starlin Castro at second base, the Yankees believed–and rightly so–Torres could help them more immediately at one of those positions. New York could make Castro trade bait, thereby opening up that position on the infield. But Headley is older than Castro and generally less productive as a power hitter, so Torres seems to fit best as the third baseman of the near future.

In general, teams expect more power and offense from a third baseman, which can be one of the most difficult positions to fill on a team. But Torres, who put up an OPS of .863 in a partial season at Triple-A, has the kind of offensive ceiling that makes him viable even at third without losing any of the athleticism and quickness needed in playing the hot corner. According to the consensus of most scouts, Torres projects as a player who can hit 25 home runs, steal 15 to 20 bases, and play anywhere from above-average to Gold Glove-caliber defense at third base. That sounds like another Manny Machado to me, which is awfully good, but comes with the added bonus of Torres (who turns 21 in December) being four years younger.

Then again, I’m taking a chance with Torres. He’s never played a game in the major leagues. Additionally, his development as a prospect has already been slowed by an injury-marred 2017 season, which saw him tear ligaments in his non-throwing elbow, necessitating Tommy John surgery. As a result, he might have to begin the 2018 season on the disabled list. Even if all goes well during spring training, he’ll start 2018 at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre, and not in the Bronx, where either Headley or Todd Frazier (who is a free agent) figure to open the season.

Still, I’ll roll the dice. By July, I figure Torres will be in New York, playing either third base or second base, and making a late run at the Rookie of the Year Award. And then in 2018, he can begin a full-time assault on the title of the game’s best player–and perhaps make me look less foolish in my choice of a youngster who has never seen a major league pitch.

Pick No. 5: Stephanie Springer selects Joey Votto

We shouldn’t conflate the word franchise with the word team. In building our franchise, we need to look beyond the team on the field, beyond even the 40-man roster. Our franchise baseball player is not merely a figurehead or a face, but a keystone of the organization as a whole. So when we are building a franchise, we need to consider the development of younger players; the communication between the players, coaches and the training staff, and the interactions between uniformed personnel and the front office (and others who aren’t on the field).

However, that’s not to say that we can lessen our standards for our franchise player’s impact in the batter’s box or on the field. We consider his value to the team over time, whether it’s proven or potential. We either select a known quantity or someone we can dream on. We might even look at where our franchise player will fit into the lineup.

I want someone who can write that lineup. I want someone who can explain to other players why the lineup is constructed the way it is. That’s why I selected Joey Votto.

Votto has appeared in the previous iterations of this exercise – but that was years ago. You could argue that his best playing years may be behind him – but 2017 was another banner year for him. He remains a leader by a number of different metrics: He had a career low strikeout rate of 11.7 percent (a six  percentage point drop from his career rate) and a major-league-leading walk rate of 19 percent. His wRC+ (his favorite stat) was 165. He was a close second in 2017 NL MVP voting, garnering as many first place votes as the winner and losing by a historically slim margin. Indeed, he is projected to continue performing at his current level for years to come.

Regardless, though, he’s 34. Why would you build a franchise around an aging player?

That’s where we circle back to our broader definition of a franchise player as the keystone of our entire organization. He is going to play an integral role in the development of younger players, at both the major league and minor league levels. Joey Votto — he who carried a copy of The Science of Baseball during his minor league years — has seen good years and bad as a baseball player. As stellar as his career has been overall, even he has had his low points. Younger players will respect his experience and authority; even division rival Kris Bryant has noted Joey Votto’s prowess.

We need to convince younger players that an analytical mindset goes beyond a computer. We often rely upon coaches and trainers who have already embraced sabermetrics as the liaisons between the players and analysts. However, getting buy-in from players can still be a challenge. Acceptance and understanding of analytics is integral to any franchise moving forward. Adoption of sabermetric principles doesn’t come easily to everyone. And that’s okay. But we need a salesman in the dugout. Joey Votto is perfect for this role.

In fact, his time in the dugout could easily extend beyond his playing days. While technically this wouldn’t fall within the scope of a franchise player,  he would no doubt be as valuable to the franchise in a managerial role. We know more teams are hiring retired players who are analytically minded, to serve as a liaison between players and the analysts. Why wait until the next Dan Haren or Brian Bannister retires? One could make the argument that Joey Votto may be the ideal candidate for bringing back the role of player-manager.

So while Joey Votto may be one of the older players on this list, his brain is as sharp as ever. He is evidence that mindfulness at the plate can lead to tangible results, and this is what the other players in the dugout need. He could be the player who turns a franchise into one that truly embraces an analytical and intellectual approach at all levels of an organization.