Triple-A, one pitch at a time
Thanks to the proliferation of new data sources, baseball research has increasingly been focused at the pitch-by-pitch level. As usual, minor league research lags behind: Both the data and the interest just don’t compare.
We can get started, though. MLB Gameday doesn’t track minor league games nearly as extensively as it does major league games, but it does give us enough data to tinker around with. Specifically, Gameday includes pitch sequences for all Triple-A games. Those of you desperate to probe the underlying patterns behind Scott McClain’s .850 OPS are in luck.
Over the next couple of weeks, I’ll take a look at which Triple-A pitchers stand out using pitch sequence data, and we’ll see how a promotion to the big leagues affects how players handle themselves on a pitch-by-pitch basis. For today, let’s focus on Triple-A hitters.
A couple of notes before we get any further. As is usually true with my minor league research, the numbers aren’t quite perfect. A few plate appearances are missing pitch-by-pitch data, and I probably mishandled a few of the rarer events. Also, the stats in this article are limited to players with 200 or more PAs in Triple-A, and are current through Sunday’s games.
Patience
The most popular pitch-level stat is pitches per plate appearance. We’re all impressed when a hitter works the count, and we groan in unison when someone like Johnny Estrada grounds to second base on the first pitch he sees…again. With that in mind, here are the Triple-A hitters who have seen the most pitches per plate appearance so far this year:
Player PA Pitches Pit/PA Jesus Feliciano 245 1105 4.51 Robby Hammock 208 901 4.33 Eric Bruntlett 257 1112 4.33 Pete Laforest 328 1416 4.32 Jack Hannahan 403 1735 4.31 Jason Botts 455 1948 4.28 Clay Timpner 340 1449 4.26 Brent Clevlen 278 1183 4.26 Brian Myrow 306 1296 4.24 Mitch Jones 218 922 4.23
Not surprisingly, the list includes a couple of sabermetric faves, Jason Botts and Brian Myrow. Hammock’s presence here is aided by his extreme reluctance to swing at the first pitch: in those 200+ plate appearances, he swung at the first pitch a grand total of eight times.
To identify the least patient Triple-A hitters, let’s use that metric: the percent of first pitches they swing at.
Player PA 1st Swg 1st Swg % Carlos Mendez 225 62 27.6% Brayan Pena 263 59 22.4% Alexis Gomez 250 56 22.4% Brian Esposito 233 51 21.9% Luis Figueroa 376 81 21.5% Danny Sandoval 343 73 21.3% Brent Butler 236 50 21.2% Terry Tiffee 392 81 20.7% Jeremy Reed 503 100 19.9% Joey Gathright 277 55 19.9% Rich Thompson 272 53 19.5%
There are a few familiar names on the list, but no one here is famous for his plate discipline. I stretched this list out to 11 names so that I could include Thompson, who is something of an oddity. Despite the high rate of first pitch swings, he has seen more than 4.1 pitches per plate appearance this year, nearly enough to put him on the first list.
Gathright is also an interesting case. Most of the players on this list swing at about 55% of the pitches they see, while the speedster only pulls the trigger a bit more than 40% of the time. I didn’t separate bunts from other hits; perhaps Gathright’s penchant for bunt base hits is what makes him an exception to the rule.
Swinging to contact
“Contact rate,” at the plate appearance level, is likely overrated by the casual fan. It’s the sort of thing that looks impressive—hey, when that guy swings, he usually hits the ball! The flip side, of course, is that the type of swing that generates lots of contact usually doesn’t generate much power.
At the single-pitch level, I’m all the more impressed by a high contact rate…but it still isn’t going to do much for your team. Here the hitters who get the bat on the ball (including fouls) in the highest percentage of their swings:
Player PA Contact Rate Tike Redman 317 93.1% Jeff Keppinger 256 91.7% Wes Timmons 308 91.3% Martin Prado 397 91.3% Luis Figueroa 376 91.2% Jim Rushford 367 90.8% Mark Johnson 232 90.3% Timo Perez 469 90.0% Russ Johnson 353 89.6% Matt Tupman 281 89.4%
The opposite number of this list veritably defines the word “hacktastic,” with names such as Brad Eldred, Mike Hessman, and Reggie Abercrombie.
Everything else
Just about every other pitch-by-pitch stat depends on patience and contact skills; measures such as swing percentage and called strike percentage correlate highly with those you’ve seen so far. As is often the case, delving into the available minor league data makes me wish there were more, whether that means the data to evaluate prospects below Triple-A, or pitch location data to better gauge the quality of a player’s eye.
For now, here are all the metrics I’ve discussed so far, plus a few others, for some of the bigger-name prospects who have logged 200 or more plate apperances in Triple-A. “Swing%” is the percentage of pitches a player swung at; “Swg/Strk” is the percentage of strikes were swinging strikes, and “Fr Ctt %” is the percent of swings that generated balls in play. Approximate level averages are included at the bottom of the list.
Name PA Pit/PA 1stSwg% Swing% Swg/Strk Contact% Fr Ctt % Jason Botts 455 4.28 9.7% 39.9% 70.1% 73.7% 35.4% Chris Shelton 488 4.21 3.9% 39.1% 66.4% 75.0% 36.3% Billy Butler 254 4.00 6.3% 38.3% 69.2% 83.5% 45.2% Ryan Sweeney 371 3.99 6.7% 40.7% 63.7% 84.9% 45.9% Brandon Moss 461 3.98 11.1% 46.2% 75.5% 71.7% 34.8% Brandon Wood 380 3.94 12.6% 45.9% 75.3% 69.9% 36.0% Adam Jones 468 3.93 11.8% 49.6% 78.5% 73.3% 34.8% Wladimir Balentie473 3.90 11.4% 48.9% 78.2% 72.3% 36.9% Eric Patterson 495 3.88 10.3% 46.4% 72.1% 82.9% 42.8% James Loney 259 3.85 6.9% 42.7% 69.4% 83.6% 43.9% David Murphy 445 3.85 12.4% 40.1% 66.0% 85.1% 48.3% Ronny Cedeno 272 3.84 8.5% 44.4% 70.8% 83.4% 45.7% Daric Barton 479 3.82 18.0% 43.5% 73.6% 86.4% 45.1% Joey Votto 463 3.81 13.8% 46.3% 77.8% 75.0% 38.7% Geovany Soto 334 3.81 14.4% 43.0% 71.6% 73.5% 40.4% Ian Stewart 458 3.79 13.5% 47.2% 76.6% 77.3% 39.4% Rick Ankiel 405 3.76 10.9% 56.7% 85.1% 76.3% 34.5% Delwyn Young 439 3.75 11.4% 50.4% 77.8% 79.5% 38.4% Andy Marte 269 3.74 11.2% 44.2% 74.0% 81.1% 47.2% Chris Carter 492 3.71 9.8% 46.7% 72.3% 84.4% 45.8% Jacoby Ellsbury 282 3.71 16.0% 44.6% 70.0% 86.9% 47.3% Kurt Suzuki 239 3.71 7.9% 42.8% 68.8% 81.3% 45.5% Angel Berroa 289 3.67 11.1% 50.6% 76.5% 79.3% 41.9% Alexi Casilla 358 3.66 11.5% 40.7% 64.1% 79.4% 50.7% Kendry Morales 207 3.61 13.5% 53.5% 79.8% 81.3% 42.8% Jeff Mathis 270 3.58 17.0% 49.1% 77.8% 78.5% 43.7% Justin Huber 207 3.53 19.3% 51.4% 80.1% 76.8% 43.2% Clint Barmes 418 3.50 11.5% 49.5% 74.5% 87.2% 46.5% Felix Pie 236 3.49 17.4% 51.7% 80.2% 81.7% 41.8% Brent Lillibridge232 3.46 16.8% 42.0% 67.5% 82.2% 52.8% Jeff Clement 416 3.43 14.4% 44.1% 73.6% 78.7% 46.2% Jeremy Reed 503 3.31 19.9% 50.2% 79.9% 84.7% 48.2% Approx AAA Avg -- 3.73 12.9% 45.6% 73.1% 79.1% 43.0%
