Updated benchmarks for pitch types
Last May we took a look at how each different type of pitch thrown in the big leagues fared on a variety of metrics. This year’s data set goes beyond a couple months of play and includes 2010-2011 (as of last week). We’ll forgo the “rvERA” metrics as those are being rebuilt. A never-ending process.
All classifications are my own, so if I didn’t classify it myself, it’s not in the mix. As noted last year, these classifications are not perfect but have expanded and improved over the past 12 months. Strike zone tops and bottoms are now based on a combination of PITCHf/x stringer data and player height. “Chase” and “Watch” use the new top/bottoms and the rulebook plate width (.83 feet to either side of center) while IWZ uses the same tops and bottoms but a “plate” that stretches a total of two feet across.
Key
Type = pitch type # = number thrown MPH = speed at release, 55 ft. from the back end of home plate Swing = swing rate (swings/pitches) Whiff = whiff rate (misses/swings), includes foul tips Foul = foul ball rate (fouls/swings) B:CS = umpire called ball-to-called strike ratio IWZ = rate of pitches thrown within a "wide" strike zone Chase = swing rate outside of the wide zone Watch = take rate inside of the wide zone (inverse of swing rate) nkSLG = non-K slugging, or SLGCON GB% = rate of balls in play tagged by MLBAM stringers as grounders LD% = line drives FB% = outfield fly balls PU% = infield fly balls HR/FL% = home runs per outfield fly + line drive CH = Change-ups, may include some splitters that tail more than tumble CU = Curveballs, probably some slurves SI = Two-seam fastball, sinkers, tailing fastballs FA = Four-seam fastball, generic fastballs FC = Cutters and some slutters, can be a fuzzy group FS = Splitters, foshes and forkballs, may include some other tumbling change-ups KN = Knuckleballs, although some of Eddie Bonine’s (et al.) are not in here SB = Screwball, sole property of Danny Herrera SL = Slider or slurve, even some slutters
First, the bottom line taken from all of the included pitches:
Type | # | MPH | Swing | Whiff | Foul | B:CS | IWZ | Chase | Watch | nkSLG | GB% | LD% | FB% | PU% | HR/FL% |
All | 468128 | 87.9 | 0.443 | 0.209 | 0.373 | 2.1 | 0.520 | 0.267 | 0.357 | 0.504 | 45% | 19% | 29% | 7.4% | 7.1% |
Now by individual type:
Type | # | MPH | Swing | Whiff | Foul | B:CS | IWZ | Chase | Watch | nkSLG | GB% | LD% | FB% | PU% | HR/FL% |
CH | 49101 | 82.9 | 0.502 | 0.297 | 0.292 | 3.6 | 0.438 | 0.337 | 0.258 | 0.468 | 49% | 18% | 26% | 6.6% | 7.3% |
CU | 43812 | 77.0 | 0.389 | 0.280 | 0.318 | 2.1 | 0.463 | 0.276 | 0.465 | 0.491 | 50% | 19% | 25% | 5.8% | 7.2% |
FA | 176541 | 92.2 | 0.428 | 0.164 | 0.433 | 1.7 | 0.560 | 0.227 | 0.361 | 0.534 | 36% | 21% | 34% | 9.4% | 7.2% |
FC | 26116 | 87.5 | 0.479 | 0.214 | 0.383 | 2.3 | 0.529 | 0.272 | 0.298 | 0.489 | 44% | 20% | 27% | 8.5% | 6.3% |
FS | 6306 | 84.9 | 0.511 | 0.324 | 0.298 | 4.2 | 0.420 | 0.356 | 0.244 | 0.439 | 53% | 17% | 24% | 6.2% | 6.3% |
KN | 2939 | 71.2 | 0.466 | 0.210 | 0.367 | 2.4 | 0.545 | 0.245 | 0.316 | 0.514 | 43% | 17% | 30% | 9.9% | 9.1% |
SB | 115 | 67.4 | 0.443 | 0.216 | 0.255 | 2.8 | 0.426 | 0.303 | 0.344 | 0.333 | 56% | 15% | 26% | 3.7% | 9.1% |
SI | 97237 | 91.0 | 0.429 | 0.119 | 0.380 | 1.9 | 0.542 | 0.241 | 0.371 | 0.495 | 52% | 19% | 24% | 4.4% | 6.7% |
SL | 65961 | 83.8 | 0.471 | 0.319 | 0.315 | 2.4 | 0.487 | 0.321 | 0.350 | 0.493 | 45% | 17% | 29% | 8.5% | 7.8% |
Since classifications of pitch types can overlap or be imperfect, it’s helpful to group pitches together. One approach is to combine cutters and sliders to make slutters, sliders and curves to make slurves. Not safe at the individual level, but informative otherwise. To limit confusion, we’ll spell out the pitch names and mark the combined types with *.
Type | # | MPH | Swing | Whiff | Foul | B:CS | IWZ | Chase | Watch | nkSLG | GB% | LD% | FB% | PU% | HR/FL% |
Cutter | 26116 | 87.5 | 0.479 | 0.214 | 0.383 | 2.3 | 0.529 | 0.272 | 0.298 | 0.489 | 44% | 20% | 27% | 8.5% | 6.3% |
Slutter* | 92077 | 84.8 | 0.473 | 0.289 | 0.334 | 2.4 | 0.499 | 0.307 | 0.335 | 0.492 | 45% | 18% | 28% | 8.5% | 7.4% |
Slider | 65961 | 83.8 | 0.471 | 0.319 | 0.315 | 2.4 | 0.487 | 0.321 | 0.350 | 0.493 | 45% | 17% | 29% | 8.5% | 7.8% |
Slurve* | 109773 | 81.1 | 0.438 | 0.303 | 0.316 | 2.3 | 0.477 | 0.303 | 0.396 | 0.492 | 47% | 18% | 27% | 7.4% | 7.6% |
Curve | 43812 | 77.0 | 0.389 | 0.280 | 0.318 | 2.1 | 0.463 | 0.276 | 0.465 | 0.491 | 50% | 19% | 25% | 5.8% | 7.2% |
The same process gets us a generic fastball. We could include cutters here, but let’s try and stick to the hardest thrown stuff.
Type | # | MPH | Swing | Whiff | Foul | B:CS | IWZ | Chase | Watch | nkSLG | GB% | LD% | FB% | PU% | HR/FL% |
Heater | 176541 | 92.2 | 0.428 | 0.164 | 0.433 | 1.7 | 0.560 | 0.227 | 0.361 | 0.534 | 36% | 21% | 34% | 9.4% | 7.2% |
Fastball* | 273778 | 91.8 | 0.428 | 0.148 | 0.414 | 1.8 | 0.554 | 0.232 | 0.365 | 0.520 | 42% | 20% | 30% | 7.6% | 7.0% |
Sinker | 97237 | 91.0 | 0.429 | 0.119 | 0.380 | 1.9 | 0.542 | 0.241 | 0.371 | 0.495 | 52% | 19% | 24% | 4.4% | 6.7% |
Last and certainly not the least, off-speed pitches.
Type | # | MPH | Swing | Whiff | Foul | B:CS | IWZ | Chase | Watch | nkSLG | GB% | LD% | FB% | PU% | HR/FL% |
Change | 49101 | 82.9 | 0.502 | 0.297 | 0.292 | 3.6 | 0.438 | 0.337 | 0.258 | 0.468 | 49% | 18% | 26% | 6.6% | 7.3% |
Offspeed* | 55407 | 83.1 | 0.503 | 0.300 | 0.293 | 3.7 | 0.436 | 0.339 | 0.256 | 0.465 | 49% | 18% | 26% | 6.6% | 7.2% |
Splitter | 6306 | 84.9 | 0.511 | 0.324 | 0.298 | 4.2 | 0.420 | 0.356 | 0.244 | 0.439 | 53% | 17% | 24% | 6.2% | 6.3% |
A combined set of breaking pitches can be collected. Since cutters were left out of the fastballs, they’ll stay with their breaking friends. Not a super-duper idea, but we’re going macro level here.
Type | # | MPH | Swing | Whiff | Foul | B:CS | IWZ | Chase | Watch | nkSLG | GB% | LD% | FB% | PU% | HR/FL% |
Fastball* | 273778 | 91.8 | 0.428 | 0.148 | 0.414 | 1.8 | 0.554 | 0.232 | 0.365 | 0.520 | 42% | 20% | 30% | 7.6% | 7.0% |
Offspeed* | 55407 | 83.1 | 0.503 | 0.300 | 0.293 | 3.7 | 0.436 | 0.339 | 0.256 | 0.465 | 49% | 18% | 26% | 6.6% | 7.2% |
Breaking** | 337739 | 82.6 | 0.451 | 0.293 | 0.326 | 2.3 | 0.487 | 0.302 | 0.372 | 0.492 | 46% | 18% | 28% | 7.8% | 7.4% |
For the visual thinkers in the audience, here are some charts. Scaling is not controlled or constant, so it’s all directional/relative within a pane. The list of pitches in the middle are the ‘labels’ for each point (left-to-right).
I guess we’ll update these again next May, make it a tradition.
References & Resources
PITCHf/x data from MLBAM and Sportvision. Pitch classifications by the author. Batted ball data from MLBAM.
Any chance you have data on movement/break? I think I recall seeing that somewhere, and wondered if a larger data-set has changed the norms (which really helped understand what made a great changeup, for example, so wicked)…
Thanks, great stuff.
Thanks, Will.
It’s around, but I’ll post my numbers, too.