Youngsters and Oldsters
The baseball season is now about 70% complete, give or take a few percentage points. That’s enough time to identify this year’s stars (such as Derrek Lee and Albert Pujols) and goats (think Cristian Guzman and Eric Milton), if not the late-season phenoms and pennant drivers.
Baseball America used to run a feature I enjoyed in which they ranked the best players by age. I didn’t catch this year’s list (did they run it?) so I decided to create my own look at the major league’s best players by age based on Win Shares Above Baseline (WSAB), through Sunday’s games. I sometimes forget just how young some players are and just how old Roger Clemens is. There may be some surprises in the following lists for you too:
The Young ‘uns
Age Player POS WS WSAB 21 Street RP 10 7 Francoeur OF 8 6 Kazmir SP 8 4 McCann C 4 2 Davies SP 4 2 22 Cabrera OF 21 12 Wright 3B 19 10 Mauer C 17 10 Sizemore OF 17 8 Bonderman SP 11 6 23 Willis SP 15 11 Cordero RP 12 8 Harden SP 11 8 Crawford OF 16 7 Peralta SS 15 7 24 Zambrano SP 14 9 Peavy SP 12 8 Myers SP 12 8 Chacin SP 11 7 Lowry SP 10 6 25 Pujols 1B 30 20 Dunn OF 26 17 Garland SP 17 12 Teixeira 1B 17 8 Greene SS 14 7
There are two tremendously good 22-year-old ballplayers in the National League East, Miguel Cabrera and David Wright, and a fine one in Minnesota named Joe Mauer. Cabrera, in particular, is worth an entire article. He’s on track for 30 Win Shares, which would make him only the 33rd 22-year-old in history (post 1900) to reach that mark. The last player to do it was this year’s 25-year-old leader, the Great Pujols.
Cabrera had a very good year last year, but he has really leapt forward in 2005. Take a look at the difference (2005 Win Shares total has been prorated for an entire year):
Year WS BA OBP SLG GPA LD% BABIP BA/RSP 2004 22 .294 .366 .512 .304 19% .341 .238 2005 30 .341 .400 .597 .345 24% .384 .314
All of his basic averages have improved, thanks to a five-point increase in his Line Drive Percentage and a decrease in his groundball rate as shown in this graph. Plus, he has raised his batting average with runners in scoring position from .238 to .314. This year, he is the major’s best batter under 25, though David Wright may give him a run for the title next year.
Meanwhile, check out all the 24-year-old starting pitchers. It seems as though Carlos Zambrano and Jake Peavy have been around forever, but they’re still very young. Although Peavy has better strikeout and walk ratios…
Player W L RA ERA FIP K/G BB/G HR/G LD% DER G/F Peavy 10 5 3.37 3.14 2.78 10.9 2.1 0.94 19% .723 1.15 Zambrano 9 5 3.40 3.17 3.64 8.4 4.0 0.72 19% .737 1.79
…he pitches in a pitcher’s ballpark (Petco), while Zambrano pitches in Wrigley. These two guys, along with Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis and Rich Harden, are probably among the 10 best young pitchers under 26 today.
Three of this year’s five highest 21-year-olds play for the Atlanta Braves. Kind of says it all, doesn’t it?
In Their Prime
Age Player POS WS WSAB 26 Bay OF 25 15 Johnson 1B 21 13 Buehrle SP 18 13 Utley 2B 19 10 Santana SP 13 8 27 Roberts 2B 23 14 Oswalt SP 18 13 Giles 2B 20 11 Ramirez 3B 18 9 Furcal SS 18 8 28 Halladay SP 16 12 Burrell OF 20 11 Hafner 1B 16 11 Jones OF 20 10 Wilkerson OF 18 9 29 Lee 1B 29 20 Ensberg 3B 25 16 Rodriguez 3B 24 15 Ortiz 1B 22 15 Guerrero OF 19 12 30 Carpenter SP 16 11 Sexson 1B 18 10 Hernandez SP 12 7 Jenkins OF 15 6 Washburn SP 11 6
The age of 27 has been identified as the typical “peak year,” and Brian Roberts is certainly living up to that aphorism. Derrek Lee’s 29-year-old season also seems to qualify for a peak year, don’t you think?
But 26-year-olds also have their share of peak years, and it will be very interesting to watch the careers of Jason Bay and Nick Johnson (if he stays healthy), the two best 26-year-old position players so far this year.
Bay is having a sensational August, batting .380/.467/.680, and he is now third in the league with 99 Runs Created. The guy may not be as young as Cabrera and Wright, and he may have been traded twice, but after last year (.282/.358/.550) and this year, he is clearly one of the best talents in the game.
Can you believe ARod is only 29? Hasn’t he been around forever?
Keepin’ on Truckin’
Age Player POS WS WSAB 31 Abreu OF 22 12 Damon OF 21 12 Matsui OF 17 9 LaRue C 14 9 Jeter SS 18 8 32 Floyd OF 19 10 Colon SP 14 9 Clark OF 17 7 Cameron OF 13 6 Hermanson RP 10 6 33 Ramirez OF 24 16 Delgado 1B 19 11 Pettitte SP 15 10 Clark 1B 13 9 Martinez SP 14 9 34 Giles OF 23 14 Giambi 1B 16 10 Counsell 2B 18 9 Saenz 1B 11 7 Matheny C 13 7 35 Edmonds OF 23 15 Griffey Jr OF 19 11 Rivera RP 12 7 Grudzielan 2B 15 6 Sweeney 1B 9 6
These are the iffy years, in which established players sometimes see their careers start to fizzle away. Sometimes not. Most tellingly, there are only three starting pitchers in this age group, compared to 11 between the ages of 21 and 26.
That 31-year-old age group is outstanding, though I’m not sure how Jason LaRue sneaked in there with Abreu, Damon, Matsui and Jeter.
Sabean Territory
Age Player POS WS WSAB 36 Sheffield OF 26 17 Mussina SP 10 5 Taguchi OF 10 5 Walker RP 8 5 Piazza C 12 4 37 Kent 2B 24 15 Jones RP 11 8 Gonzalez OF 16 7 Stairs 1B 11 6 Sanders OF 11 6 38 Smoltz SP 15 10 Wakefield SP 12 7 Vizquel SS 15 6 Walker OF 11 6 Lofton OF 9 4 39 Biggio 2B 16 7 Alou OF 13 7 Timlin RP 10 6 Hammond RP 5 4 Maddux SP 7 2 40 Rogers SP 15 11 Palmeiro 1B 11 4 Hernandez RP 6 4 Harris 1B 1 1 Groom RP 1 0
Gary Sheffield, Jeff Kent, Kenny Rogers and John Smoltz deserve special mention for the seasons they are having at their “advanced age.” But I would not have guessed that So Taguchi is the third-best 36-year-old in the game. Shows what I know.
Not Yet Ready for the Top Bunk
Age Player POS WS WSAB 41 Johnson SP 8 3 42 Clemens SP 23 18 Wells SP 9 5 Moyer SP 8 3 Fassero RP 2 0 Mulholland RP 1 -1 44 Franco RP 0 -2 46 Franco 1B 6 3
Can anything compare with what Roger Clemens has done this year? With 23 Win Shares, he already has the highest total any 42-year-old baseball player has ever had. The previous record holders were Carlton Fisk and Warren Spahn with 22 each. According to Lee Sinins, Clemens has 53 Runs Saved Above Average, which is already better than any pitcher 40 years old or older. Here’s a list of the previous best seasons by pitchers over the age of 39:
YEAR RSAA T1 Randy Johnson 2004 50 T1 Grover C Alexander 1927 50 3 Cy Young 1908 35 4 Roger Clemens 2004 32 T5 Jack Quinn 1924 30 T5 Phil Niekro 1979 30 T5 Ted Lyons 1942 30 8 Dennis Martinez 1995 28 T9 Jamie Moyer 2003 27 T9 Jack Quinn 1928 27
Meanwhile, the two old Francos manage to hang on. John Franco is not distinguishing himself in his old age and this is probably his last season. But Julio “The Ageless Wonder” Franco is having a fine season, the best ever for a 46-year-old position player. The only players who have racked up more Win Shares at 46 are some past ageless wonders of the mound: Hoyt Wilhelm (13), Satchel Paige (11), Phil Niekro (10) and Jack Quinn (8).
So here’s to 2005, the year of the Atlanta Braves and Miguel Cabrera on one hand, and Roger Clemens and Julio Franco on the other.