The Five Most Questionable MVP Winners

The Most Valuable Player award is one of the most sacred in sports, probably more so in baseball. Over the years, there have been a number of questionable MVP decisions by Baseball Writers’ Association of America.

This year shouldn’t be one of those years. We’ll find out who they are officially tonight, but the 2015 winners shouldn’t be surprising to anyone now or 50 years from now. Bryce Harper is the clear favorite in the National League and, despite his Nationals not making the playoffs, is a lock for the award. No matter how well Paul Goldschmidt and Joey Votto performed, it won’t be enough to keep the Harper, at 23, from netting his first of (likely) multiple MVPs. In the American League, it’s a legitimate race between Mike Trout and Josh Donaldson.

Years down the road, this isn’t a year that’s going to leave people scratching their heads and asking, “How did that guy win?” But, well, that doesn’t mean years like that don’t happen. I looked at MVP award winners in each league from 1947 on to find the five most questionable MVP winners. The year 1947 is significant because it was the year Jackie Robinson integrated baseball.

For this exercise, I looked at both versions of wins above replacement — FanGraphs (fWAR) and Baseball Reference (rWAR). I also factored in team record and win probability added (WPA). There are some questionable MVPs missing from the list of five and honorable mentions section — Andre Dawson, 1987 comes to mind — but it’s for good reason.

After researching, it turns out the Dawson selection wasn’t nearly as egregious as it would appear on the surface. The 1987 Cubs went 76-85 and finished 18 1/2 games out of first place in the NL East. The NL leader in both versions of WAR was Tony Gwynn, whose Padres finished 65-97. In hindsight, Dawson being voted MVP doesn’t look especially great, but there wasn’t a clear-cut MVP candidate that season, especially since Ozzie Smith finished second in the voting.

Before we get to the top five, let’s take a quick look at some honorable mentions.

Honorable mentions

1950 NL MVP
Jim Konstanty, a reliever, beat out Eddie Stanky, a second baseman. The Phillies won five more games than the Giants, but the difference in FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference WAR was staggering. Read more about Konstanty’s MVP run in this article from 2010 by Dave Studeman.

1964 NL MVP
Willie Mays got robbed a number of times for MVP, and 1964 was one. He bested MVP winner Ken Boyer in fWAR (10.5 to 6.0) and rWAR (11.0 to 6.1) by a lot, and the difference in team wins was just three.

1974 NL MVP
Winner Steve Garvey was good, not great, for a 102-win Dodgers team. Even a 5.6 difference in fWAR and 5.3 in rWAR couldn’t vault Mike Schmidt ahead of Garvey because his Phillies won just 80 games.

1985 NL MVP
Dwight Gooden posted the greatest season by rWAR (12.1) for a pitcher and tied for the fifth-best of all time (without even factoring in the 1.1 WAR he added with his bat). But Willie McGee won.

2012 AL MVP
Miguel Cabrera and the Triple Crown outdid Mike Trout in his first of two (so far) 10-win seasons.

Any Other Time a Reliever Won
Willie Hernandez in 1984 and Dennis Eckersley in 1992 stand out the most. Hernandez beat out 26 other players before Cal Ripken and his 10.0 fWAR and 9.8 rWAR came up in the voting. A 10-win shortstop finished in 27th place. That would be unheard of today.

Now, on to the five most questionable MVP award winners.

1962 NL MVP

This might be the greatest example of how thinking about baseball and its philosophies have changed in baseball over the last half-century. Maury Wills had a really good 1962 season. He posted a .299/.347/.373 triple slash and stole a league-best 104 bases. He also scored a career-high 130 runs and hit six home runs – the most he would hit in any season of his career. He also played strong defense at shortstop, making him a small-baller’s dream player. The Dodgers won 102 games that season and finished second to the Giants. This was peak Wills, and that player couldn’t have played any better.

Despite all that, he was probably the most indefensible MVP award winner since baseball integrated in 1947. Giants center fielder Mays had the second of his four 10-win seasons in 1962. It wasn’t his best overall season, but he did hit 49 home runs with a .304/.384/.615 triple slash. As usual, he played outstanding defense in center field.

The vote was, at least, close. Wills got eight first-place votes while Mays got seven. That one vote was the difference, as Wills ended with 209 points and Mays with 202. If a scenario like this were to happen today, the Internet would be ablaze with people calling for the heads of the BBWAA voters (because votes are made public now).

There’s really no defending this decision. The Giants won 103 games and the division before eventually dropping the World Series to the Yankees. It isn’t like they were a .500 team and the Dodgers were that much better. The voters just simply got this one wrong. Even if Wills had played the best shortstop anyone had ever played, he didn’t do nearly enough on offense to warrant the award over Mays. Mays was more than twice as good as the next-best player on the Giants in fWAR (Felipe Alou, 4.8), while Wills was second behind Tommy Davis (5.8). Even his brother-but-not-really Willie Davis had a 5.2 fWAR, just 0.1 behind Wills. Oh, and there was also Don Drysdale, who had a 6.5-win season. It could be argued Wills was the fourth-best player on the ’62 Dodgers and not the best in the National League.

Wills likely won on the strength of his 104 stolen bases. Prior to that, no one had stolen nearly that many since Ty Cobb swiped 96 in 1915. The game changed a lot over the course of 47 years, but triple-digits in stolen bases stands out. That doesn’t mean he was more valuable that season than a player like Mays, though.

1979 AL MVP

The 1979 vote was another head-scratcher. Don Baylor had a great offensive season. He was the rare slugger who didn’t strike out a lot (7.1 percent). He hit 39 home runs, which tied him with Fred Lynn and Jim Rice for second-best in the American League. Where he gained a lot of support was with his RBI total. He drove in a major league-best 139 runs. Now, you have to be a good hitter to drive in that many runs, but as we’ve seen in the last decade-plus, RBI totals are generally unimportant and almost meaningless. Baylor also didn’t provide much of anything on defense; he played just 98 games in the field.

Lynn, Boston’s center fielder, had what would be the best season of his career. He hit .333/.423/.637 with 39 homers and a major leaguue-leading 174 weighted runs created-plus and 8.6 fWAR. He was also above average in center field, making him the complete package.

The baffling thing is Lynn, despite helping to lead Boston to a 91-win season, didn’t get a single first-place vote. Baylor got 20 of 28 votes for the AL West-winning Angels … a team that won three fewer games than the Red Sox. That fact, coupled with Baylor’s RBI total, propelled him to being the first MVP winner in Angels history.

1996 AL MVP

One of baseball’s greatest misconceptions is that Juan Gonzalez was an MVP-caliber player. While he was good at hitting, he offered next-to-nothing on the defensive side of the ball. Still, his 1996 season was one of his best with the bat. He hit 47 home runs with a .314/.368/.643 triple slash and a league-leading 144 RBIs. Again, it seems RBIs played a big role in the voters’ decision. Still, he played just 134 games, and 32 of those games came as a designated hitter.

Ken Griffey Jr. played just six more games than Gonzalez, but he was much more valuable in those games. He bested Gonzalez in many offensive categories, but not by much. Where he had the clear and distinct advantage was defensively. He played center field, an intensive defensive position, and played it better than anyone in baseball that season by a long shot.

Team records likely played a factor in the voting, as the Rangers finished 4½ games ahead of the Mariners in the AL West. That it was Texas’ first postseason appearance also played into Gonzalez’s favor with the voters. Gonzalez got 11 first-place votes, while Griffey got four. Griffey’s teammate Alex Rodriguez got 10 first-place votes, so it seems the voters couldn’t decide between the two, and Gonzalez benefited from it. While the win probability added numbers don’t differ as much as the previous two questionable MVPs, the difference in both WAR and overall value stand out.

1999 AL MVP

Since 1947, 22 pitchers have won the MVP award in either league, or 16.2 percent. Seeing as there is such an emphasis on pitching, one would think more pitchers would win (or even be considered). The 1999 season was one such year. The Rangers won 95 games and clinched a third playoff appearance in four seasons. Ivan Rodriguez was baseball’s best all-around catcher, and the 1999 season was his most valuable in almost every category imaginable. He triple-slashed .332/.356/.558 with 35 home runs and a surprising 25 stolen bases. He also had his third-best defensive season by FanGraphs’ defensive rating. A nearly seven-win catcher is hard to overlook, except when a pitcher has one of the best seasons in the game’s history.

How Pedro Martinez never won an MVP award is beyond me, and his best chance was in 1999. He threw 213.1 innings – an acceptable number in 2015, but a little “light” by late-90s standards. Where he thrived was in rate stats. He struck out 13.2 hitters per nine innings, the highest rate of all time before Randy Johnson had a 13.4 K/9 in 2001. He walked just 1.6 hitters per nine innings and posted a 1.39 fielding independent pitching – the best of all-time. His fWAR was the highest of any pitcher in baseball history. It was, likely, the best season for any pitcher, ever. And the Red Sox won 94 games and the AL Wild Card, so the postseason berth cannot have been used against Martinez.

Martinez actually got eight first-place votes to Rodriguez’s seven. But some voters do not believe pitchers should be eligible for the MVP award. That’s fine, I guess. But when a pitcher does the things Martinez did in 1999, it might be time to make an exception. This isn’t a slight to Rodriguez or any other “questionable” MVP choices, but greatness should be rewarded. Also, the WPA numbers are strongly in Martinez’s favor, which could have been a factor had baseball thinking in 1999 been how it is these days.

2002 AL MVP

The 2002 Oakland Athletics were special. Hell, there was a movie made about the 103-win team. Miguel Tejada was at the center of the A’s success. At 28, he was coming off 16th- and 19th-place MVP finishes the two seasons prior and was in the middle of his prime. The 2002 season would be his best with the bat. He slashed .308/.354/.508 with 34 home runs and a 129 wRC+. He also had 131 RBIs, which, as I mentioned earlier, doesn’t mean a whole lot anymore. One thing he does get credit for is being an ironman of sorts. He played 162 games for six consecutive seasons from 2001 through 2006, and he played 159 and 160 games in 1999 and 2000, respectively. He wasn’t ever really much with the glove, but his bat more than made up for it. It may not have been the most valuable, but it was really good.

Alex Rodriguez was in his second season with the Rangers. The team didn’t climb out of the cellar in any of Rodriguez’s three years as a Ranger, but his time with them was really productive. His 2002 season was his best as a major leaguer. He hit 57 home runs with a .300/.392/.623 and a 158 wRC+. It would be his only 10-win season (by fWAR) because he played league-best defense at shortstop. It was one of the finest seasons ever by a shortstop, and he garnered just five of the 28 first-place votes.

Rodriguez was likely done in by the A’s 103 wins and 20-game winning streak and Tejada’s heroics in games 18 and 19 of that streak. He hit a three-run home run in the ninth inning off Eddie Guardado and walked off the Royals the next game. He did post a better WPA than Rodriguez, so there’s that. Tejada was an inferior – but still good – player to Rodriguez in 2002, but Tejada’s clutchitude (which, like RBIs, isn’t really a thing) ultimately won out.

Conclusion

This article isn’t meant to take anything away from the players who were voted the MVP of their respective leagues. It’s just meant to point out, in hindsight, that some of these decisions were questionable. Happily, the electorate has improved tremendously, which is only a good thing for baseball fans going forward.

Also, this should give better recognition to the greatest players in the game. Almost any season in which Ted Williams played, he should have been at the top or near the top in the MVP voting. He won the award twice. The same could be said about players like Mickey Mantle (three MVPs), Albert Pujols (three MVPs), Alex Rodriguez (three MVPs), Mays (two MVPs), Roger Clemens (one MVP). A tip of the hat to the voters for recognizing Barry Bonds seven times.

There should be fewer of these questionable MVP award winners going forward. In fact, it’d be surprising if a guy with a sub-5 WAR (either FanGraphs or Baseball-Reference) ever won the award again.