Jack Morris: the winningest pitcher of the 1980s

The only two certainties in life are death and taxes.
—Mark Twain.

At times attributed to Mark Twain, Benjamin Franklin, and Christopher Bullock, the above quote isn’t exactly correct. One other certainty in life is that a sportswriter supporting Jack Morris for the Hall of Fame will ALWAYS mention two things about Morris: His 10-inning, complete-game, 1-0 shutout of the Braves in game seven of the 1991 World Series and that he won more games than any other pitcher during the 1980s.

This article supporting Jack Morris for the Hall of Fame mentions both, of course, even adding a little something extra: “Morris won more games than any pitcher during the 1980s. Every pitcher that won the most games in a given decade deep into history before that has been inducted into the Hall.” It’s the second part of that statement that sent me to Baseball-Reference’s Play Index.

Yes, it’s true, every “Winningest Pitcher of the ____s” before Morris is in the Hall of Fame. But is this important? Does anyone know who the winningest pitcher of the 1970s was? Or the 1960s? Or any decade before Morris? It seems that the only pitcher ever mentioned as the “Winningest Pitcher of the ____s” is Jack Morris. This is often a big part of the writer’s argument that Morris should be in the Hall of Fame.

With the “Winningest Pitcher of the ____s” in mind, I decided to look back at the men who hold this title for the previous nine decades to see how Morris compares.

Yikes! Two of these guys clearly do not belong with the others—Burleigh Grimes and Jack Morris. Most of the other “Winningest Pitchers of the ____s” are among the best pitchers in the history of baseball (Christy Mathewson, Walter Johnson, Lefty Grove) and are more than worthy Hall of Fame pitchers. Every pitcher except Grimes and Morris not only led the decade in wins, but were also among the top five in WAR and ERA+ for that decade. Grimes and Morris, despite leading their respective decades in wins, do not come close to the others in WAR and ERA+. Let’s take a closer look:

Christy Mathewson—Winningest Pitcher of the 00s—From 1900 to 1909, Mathewson won the most games, had the second-highest WAR, and the fourth-best ERA+ of pitchers with more than 1000 innings pitched. In addition, Mathewson won 373 games over 17 seasons with a career ERA+ of 137, good for 11th all-time among pitchers with a minimum of 2000 innings pitched. He is 14th in career WAR. Mathewson was among the inaugural inductees to the Hall of Fame in 1936, getting 90.7% of the vote and joining Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Honus Wagner, and Walter Johnson in that first class. He’s a slam-dunk Hall of Fame pitcher, regardless of his status as the winningest pitcher of the 00s. That he won more games than any other pitcher from 1900 to 1909 is incidental to his Hall of Fame credentials.

Walter Johnson—Winningest Pitcher of the 10s—From 1910 to 1919, Johnson won 265 games and accumulated 90.8 WAR with an ERA+ of 183, leading all pitchers in each category. Johnson is in the running for greatest pitcher of all time. He won 416 games with an ERA+ of 147. He is 3rd in career WAR and career ERA+. Of all the “Winningest Pitchers of the ____s” on this list, he’s the best. Johnson, like Mathewson, was part of the first class of honorees at the Hall of Fame in 1936.

Burleigh Grimes—Winningest Pitcher of the 20s—Ack! Grimes is the most-comparable pitcher on this list to Jack Morris and he clearly does not rank with the other Hall of Fame pitchers listed here. While he did win the most games of any pitcher during the 1920s, Grimes was 9th in WAR for the decade and 18th in ERA+. His rank in career WAR is 158th. His career ERA+ is 170th. In his first year of eligibility for the Hall of Fame (1937), Grimes got 0.5 percent of the vote. He received votes in 10 Hall of Fame elections over the next 18 years and never received more than 6 percent of the vote. In 1956, more than 20 years after he’d been retired, Grimes started to gain some traction in Hall of Fame voting when his total increased from 1.2 to 13 percent. Two years later, he was up to 26.7 percent. In 1960, he peaked at 34.2 percent, then dropped back down to 26.9 percent in 1962. He was not elected by the BBWAA but did get into the Hall of Fame in 1964 thanks to the Veteran’s Committee. By most measures, Grimes is among the worst starting pitchers in the Hall of Fame, and possibly THE worst.

Lefty Grove—Winningest Pitcher of the 30s—Grove, like Walter Johnson, has a case as the greatest pitcher of all time. He won exactly 300 games in his career but that total would have been much higher if his debut in the major leagues hadn’t been delayed. Grove won over 100 games for the independently-operated minor league Baltimore Orioles before owner Jack Dunn finally sold his rights to the Philadelphia Athletics, so Grove didn’t pitch in the major leagues until he was 25 years old. In the 1930s, Grove won the most games, accumulated the most WAR, and had the best ERA+ of any pitcher. For his career, Grove is 7th all time in WAR and 2nd in ERA+. He doesn’t need the title of “Winningest Pitcher of the 30s” to seal his Hall of Fame case.

Hal Newhouser—Winningest Pitcher of the 40s—like Grove, Newhouser led his decade in wins, WAR, and ERA+. Unlike Grove, Newhouser is not among the “inner circle” of Hall of Fame pitchers. Newhouser had fewer wins (207) than many Hall of Fame starting pitchers and he got the bulk of those wins in just seven seasons. From 1944 to 1950, Newhouser won 151 games with an ERA+ of 145. He won 80 games over a three-year stretch from 1944 to 1946, when he won back-to-back MVP awards and finished 2nd the third year. In the five years before and after that stretch, Newhouser never won more than 9 games. For his career, Newhouser ranks 52nd in WAR and 19th in ERA+. In 12 years on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot, Newhouser was generally in the 20 percent range, peaking at 42.8 percent in 1975, the last year he was eligible. His induction to the Hall of Fame came by way of the Veteran’s Committee in 1992. His place in the Hall of Fame is almost entirely due to his excellent stretch of pitching from ’44 to ’50.

Warren Spahn—Winningest Pitcher of the 50s—Spahn doesn’t have the peak of Grove or Newhouser, but he had a longer career than either and finished with 363 wins. During the 1950s, Spahn had 202 wins, was second in WAR and fourth in ERA+. In his career, Spahn was 11th all time in WAR, but just 61st in ERA+, which ranks him just below Bob Lemon and above Bert Blyleven. Spahn was selected to the HOF in his first year of eligibility in 1973 by the BBWAA, with 83.2% of the vote.

Juan Marichal—Winningest Pitcher of the 60s—Marichal finished second to Bob Gibson in WAR for the decade and second to Sandy Koufax in ERA+. By Hall of Fame standards, Marichal had a relatively short career (16 seasons) and low number of wins (243). The bulk of his career came in 13 years between 1961 and 1973 and he was effectively done as a major league pitcher at the age of 36. Marichal finished his career with 64 WAR, good for 37th all time, and an ERA+ of 123, also 37th all time. It took him three years to be elected to the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA, going from 58.1 percent of the vote to 73.5 percent to 83.7 percent, gaining entry in 1983.

Jim Palmer—Winningest Pitcher of the 70s—Palmer is similar to Marichal. While he did win more games than any other pitcher during the 1970s, he did not lead in WAR or ERA+, finished fifth in WAR and second in ERA+ for the decade. In his career, Palmer had 63.5 WAR, good for 39th place, two spots behind Marichal. He did outdo Marichal in ERA+, finishing at 126 and 29th place all time. Palmer was selected to the Hall of Fame in 1990, his first year on the ballot, getting 92.6% of the vote.

Jack Morris—Winningest Pitcher of the 80s—Now we get to the main man, Jack Morris. All of the pitchers above, except for Burleigh Grimes, not only led their decade in wins, but also finished among the top five in WAR and ERA+ for their decade. These “Winningest Pitchers of the ____s” include three pitchers among the top 15 in career WAR, two others in the top forty, one ranked 52nd in career WAR . . . and Burleigh Grimes, ranked 158th. Back to Morris. During the 1980s, Jack Morris won more games than any other pitcher. He was also 12th in WAR for the decade and 13th in ERA+. The pitchers who had similar value to Morris in the 80s include John Tudor, Bret Saberhagen, Charlie Hough, and Mario Soto. None of those pitchers have sportswriters banging a drum for their Hall of Fame candidacy. In his career, Morris had 39.3 WAR, good for 141st all time, just behind Javier Vazquez and a bit ahead of Al Leiter. His ERA+ is even worse—105, which ranks him 219th, in the company of Tim Wakefield and Ken Holtzman.

When it comes to “Winningest Pitchers of the ____s,” Jack Morris is much closer to Burleigh Grimes than any other pitcher on this list. Grimes, as mentioned above, may be the worst starting pitcher in the Hall of Fame. Every pitcher on this list, except Grimes, has a legitimate Hall of Fame case that does not rest on their status of having won more games than any other pitcher during a specified number of years.

If you can’t build a Hall of Fame case for Jack Morris based on traditional metrics, such as wins or ERA (42nd and 326th all time), and you can’t build one on advanced metrics likes career WAR or ERA+ (141st and 219th all time), then you have to build it on one great World Series victory and a mantra, “Winningest Pitcher of the 1980s.” That mantra falls apart upon closer inspection. Jack Morris does not belong in a group that includes Christy Mathewson, Walter Johnson, or Lefty Grove. He does not belong in a group that includes Warren Spahn, Juan Marichal, and Jim Palmer. He can keep company with Burleigh Grimes, but that does not make him a Hall of Fame pitcher.

That being said, Morris is on the cusp of entry. He became eligible in 2000 and sat in the 20 percent range for the first five years on the ballot. In year six, he gained 7 percent, up to 33.3 percent. After eight years on the ballot, he was up to 37.1 percent. After 10 years, he was at 44 percent. He made another jump in 2010, held steady in 2011, then made his biggest leap yet in 2012, up to 66.7 percent. He’s close. If he does make it, then the narrative can continue, even if it is misleading.

As quoted above, “Every pitcher that won the most games in a given decade deep into history before that has been inducted into the Hall.” Morris has a good chance of continuing this trend. If he does, the next “Winningest Pitcher of the ____s” is a no-brainer Hall of Famer—Greg Maddux. We likely won’t repeatedly hear that Maddux won more games in the 90s than any other pitcher because his accomplishments don’t need that piece of trivia to uphold his candidacy. Maddux won 355 games. He’s eighth all time in WAR and 17th in ERA+. His credentials are beyond reproach.

After Maddux, though, comes another questionable Hall of Fame candidate—Andy Pettitte. Andy Pettitte won more games than any other pitcher from 2000 to 2009, just like Jack Morris and Burleigh Grimes in their respective decades. Also like Morris and Grimes, Pettitte was nowhere near the best pitcher of the decade. In fact, he was 17th in WAR and 15th in ERA+ from 2000 to 2009, marks even worse than Jack Morris in the 80s. For his career, Pettitte is 78th in WAR and 71st in ERA+.

Still, in a few years, when Andy Pettitte hits the ballot and his career accomplishments do not make him a slam-dunk Hall of Fame pitcher, get ready to hear that Andy Pettitte won more games than any other pitcher in the 00s. There will be sportswriters who will use it to support his candidacy, but that piece of trivia shouldn’t make him a Hall of Fame pitcher. It shouldn’t work for Jack Morris either.

References & Resources
WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and ERA+ are from Baseball-Reference. ERA+ or ERA plus adjusts a pitcher’s earned run average (ERA) according to the pitcher’s ballpark and the ERA of the pitcher’s league. Average ERA+ is set to be 100; a score above 100 indicates that the pitcher performed better than average, below 100 indicates worse than average.

For the Decade ERA+ Rankings, I used a minimum of 1000 innings pitched.

For the Career ERA+ Rankings, I used a minimum of 2000 innings pitched.